WardsAuto North American
Barometer and 6-Month Outlook
Q4 2014/Q1 2015
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Insight & Analysis from
WardsAuto 6-Month North American Outlook – Q4 2014/Q1 2015 Industry Forecasts
Sales-N.America
(Yr/Yr % Change)
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
JAN
Production-N.America
(Yr/Yr % Change)
(Yr/Yr % Change)
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Q4
Q1 2015
Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
JAN
Inventory - U.S.
FEB
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Q3
Q4
Q1 2015
Estimate Forecast Forecast
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
JAN
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Q4
Q1 2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
Insight & Analysis from
North American Industry By the Numbers
YTD Sales (Jan.-Aug.)
Units (millions)
13.0
14
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
14
11.1
12
Trailing 12-Mo. Sales
12
20
18
16
16
10
8
8
14
6
6
12
4
4
0.7
Canada
Mexico
2
0
Production
Units (millions)
4.4
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale) 7%
6%
5%
4.5%
3.6%
10
Units (millions)
6.3%
4%
3.2%
3%
4.0
2%
1.8%
1%
3.5
3.0
0%
Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
6%
4.6%
-10%
YTD Sales
Aug. Inventory
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.3%
103%
Q1/2015 (Forecast)
7%
4.4%
Total U.S.
Pickup
Van
SUV
CUV
Luxury Car
Large Car
Middle Car
Small Car
Straight-Time Utilization
5.0
4.5
Y/Y Percent Change by Segment Group (Aug. 2014)
-20%
Available Production
6.1%
4.2
12
North America
10
0
North America U.S.
14
U.S.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1/2014
2/2014
3/2014
4/2014
5/2014
6/2014
7/2014
8/2014
1.3
20
Millions
18
10
2
U.S. Sales vs. Inventory
5%
97%
Q4/2014 (Forecast)
96%
Q3/2014 (Estimate)
Q2/2014
105%
3%
Q1/2014
102%
2%
Q4/2013
1%
Q3/2013
0%
Q2/2013
-0.9%
-1%
Q1/2013
4%
3.0
96%
94%
105%
101%
-2%
Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
80%
Insight & Analysis from
90%
100%
WardsAuto North American Outlook
Q4 2014-Q1 2015 Product and Plant Actions
Company
BMW
BMW
Daimler
Fiat-Chrysler
Fiat-Chrysler
Fiat-Chrysler
Ford
Ford
Ford
Ford
GM
Brand
Mini
BMW
Smart
Dodge
Jeep
Ram
Ford
Ford
Ford
Ford
GMC
GM
GM
Honda
Hyundai/Kia
Mazda
Mazda
Nissan
Nissan
Toyota
Toyota
Toyota
Volkswagen
Series
Cooper
X6
Fortwo
Challenger
Renegade
ProMaster City
F-150
Mustang
Edge
F-150
Canyon
Action
Redesign
Redesign
Redesign
Redesign
New vehicle
New vehicle
Redesign
Redesign
Redesign
Redesign
New vehicle
Mfr.
BMW
BMW
Daimler
Fiat-Chrysler
Fiat-Chrysler
Fiat-Chrysler
Ford
Ford
Ford
Ford
GM
Assembly Source
Germany
Spartanburg
France
Brampton
Italy
Turkey
Dearborn
Flat Rock
Oakville
Kansas City 2
Wentzville
Segment
CUV Small
CUV Luxury Middle
Small Specialty
Middle specialty
CUV Small
Van Small
Pickup Large
Middle specialty
CUV Middle
Pickup Large
Pickup Small
Chevrolet City Express
New vehicle
GM
Cuernavaca
Van Small
Chevrolet
Honda
Kia
Mazda
Mazda
Nissan
Infiniti
Lexus
Lexus
Lexus
Audi
New vehicle
New vehicle
Redesign
Redesign
Redesign
Redesign
Redesign
Redesign
New vehicle
New vehicle
New vehicle
GM
Honda
Hyundai/Kia
Mazda
Mazda
Nissan
Nissan
Toyota
Toyota
Toyota
Volkswagen
Wentzville
Celaya
West Point
Salamanca
Japan
Canton
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Germany
Pickup Small
CUV Small
CUV Middle
Small Lower
Small Specialty
CUV Middle
CUV Middle Luxury
Luxury Upper
Luxury Specialty
CUV Luxury Middle
CUV Luxury Small
Colorado
HR-V
Sorento
Mazda2
MX-5 Miata
Murano
QX70
LS
RC
NX
Q3
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Production Start
Import
July
Import
July
Import
Import
Oct.
July
Jan. 2015
Jan. 2015
Aug.
Sales Start
Oct.
Oct.
Jan. 2015
Oct.
Dec.
Jan. 2015
Dec.
Oct.
Apr. 2015
Mar 2015
Oct.
July
Oct.
Aug.
Oct.
Nov.
Sept.
Import
Sept.
Import
Import
Import
Import
Import
Oct.
Nov.
Jan. 2015
Oct.
Jan. 2015
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Dec.
Oct.
Insight & Analysis from
U.S. Sales – Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR)
(Light vehicles in millions)
Quarter
12-Mo Roll
17.0
17.0
16.7
16.5
16.5
16.3
16.4
16.0
16.0
15.7
15.5
16.5
15.6
15.7
15.5
15.5
15.3
15.0
15.0
14.5
14.5
14.0
14.0
13.5
13.5
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3 (Estimate)
Q4 (Forecast)
Q1 (Forecast)
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Insight & Analysis from
U.S. Sales – Q4 2014-Q1 2015
• Economics positive: GDP expected to continue
fairly strong (~3%) through end of year
• Enough inventory
• Competitive
• Interest rates still low
• Off-lease
• Fuel prices down
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Insight & Analysis from
U.S. Sales: Q4/Q1 Game-Changer Watch List
• Economy creating more demand than
projected
• Robust incentives in midsize car, large-pickup
segments
• Another winter like last year
• Geo-political issues hurt economy
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Insight & Analysis from
Manufacturer Pulse: Q4 2014
Nissan
GM
Ford
Hyundai/Kia
Fiat-Chrysler
Volkswagen/Audi
Toyota
Other
Honda
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
 BMW
 Mercedes
 Subaru
Insight & Analysis from
General Motors By-The-Numbers: Solid
YTD Sales (Jan.-Aug.)
Units (millions)
Trailing 12-Mo. Sales
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
3.0
3.5
U.S. Sales vs. Inventory
Y/Y Percent Change by Segment Group (Aug. 2014)
3.5
Millions
Total U.S.
Pickup
Van
SUV
CUV
Luxury Car
Large Car
Middle Car
Small Car
10
2.3
2.5
2.0
3.0
3.0
8
2.0
2.5
6
2.5
U.S.
1.5
4
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
2.0
2
1.5
0
North America U.S.
Canada
1.5
Mexico
-15%
Production
Units (millions)
Available Production
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
1,000,000
Units (millions)
8%
1,000,000
6.1%
800,000
6%
5.0%
4%
4.3%
600,000
2.0
North America
3.2%
2%
0.2%
0
Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Q4/2014 (Forecast)
Q3/2014 (Estimate)
97%
85%
88%
97%
Q2/2014
-1.0%
600,000
93%
Q1/2014
-1.3%
-1.5%
-1.8%
-2.0%
-2.3%
-4% 200,000
-6%
15%
Q1/2015 (Forecast)
-0.5%
800,000
-2%
-4.3%
0.5%
0.0%
400,000
200,000
5%
Straight-Time Capacity Utilization
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
0%
400,000
-5%
YTD Sales
Aug. Inventory
-2.5%
-3.0%
-3.0%
0
-3.5%
Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
Q4/2013
Q3/2013
89%
85%
91%
Q2/2013
Q1/2013
80%
Insight & Analysis from
89%
90%
100%
110%
General Motors: Why
?
(?) Management still in major transition though less a concern
(?) Recall: still not affecting sales, but continue to have negative
impact on earnings
(?) Globally, mixed bag. Had Q2 earnings difficulties in South
America and Europe; made wage concessions in South Korea. China
is good
(-) Cadillac, though not the bread-and-butter division like Chevrolet,
is important – not riding the luxury wave
(+/-) Fundamentals still good. Overall decent product portfolio;
should have sales gains in U.S. Q4-14, Q1-15
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Insight & Analysis from
Ford Motor By-the-Numbers: Continue Share Decline
YTD Sales (Jan.-Aug.)
North America U.S.
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
0.2
0.1
-10
-12
Canada Mexico
U.S. Sales vs. Inventory
3.0
Y/Y Percent Change by Segment Group (Aug. 2014)
3.0
Total U.S.
Pickup
Van
SUV
CUV
Luxury Car
Large Car
Middle Car
Small Car
Millions
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
U.S.
1.5
1.5
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1/2014
2/2014
3/2014
4/2014
5/2014
6/2014
7/2014
8/2014
Units (millions)
1.9
1.7
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Trailing 12-Mo. Sales
-15%
Production
Available Production
Units (millions)
Units (millions)
1%
800,000
1,000,000
0%
-1%
-1.0%
600,000
-1.8%
400,000
-2%
-2.6%
-3%
-4.2%
-4%
800,000
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale) 12%
Q1/2015 (Forecast)
10%
Q4/2014 (Forecast)
8%
Q3/2014 (Estimate)
6%
Q2/2014
9.8%
8.0%
4%
2.1%
2%
0.8%
0%
-5%
200,000
-6.2%
-6%
Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
-2%
200,000
-4%
-4.2%
-7%
0
5%
15%
Straight-Time Utilization
600,000
400,000
-5%
YTD Sales
Aug. Inventory
0
111%
102%
99%
112%
107%
Q1/2014
Q4/2013
101%
Q3/2013
101%
112%
Q2/2013
109%
Q1/2013
-6%
Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
80%
Insight & Analysis from
90%
100% 110%
Ford Motor: Why
?
(+) Was yellow last time
(+) Negatives short-term (this year and 2015)
(+) Making money in Asia; capacity expansion in China a major
positive as long as the industry there keeps growing
(+) Management transition appears smooth
(+/-) Large part of U.S. sales, share loss is from trying to maintain
some pricing power, but weakness will continue well into 2015
(-) Financial hit when lose 90,000 units of F-150 production, but
spread from Sept. through Mar 2015.
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Insight & Analysis from
Fiat-Chrysler By-The-Numbers: Growth Slows
YTD Sales (Jan.-Aug.)
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
North America U.S.
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
0.2
-15
0.0
-20
Canada Mexico
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
Units (millions)
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
400,000
16%
600,000
12%
10.5%
8%
5.1%
10.3%
10%
5%
400,000
1.6%
0%
-0.6%
Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
0
CUV
Luxury Car
YTD Sales
Aug. Inventory
Large Car
Middle Car
0%
20%
40%
105%
Q1/2015 (Forecast)
Q4/2014 (Forecast)
114%
Q3/2014 (Estimate)
113%
Q2/2014
Q1/2014
109%
Q4/2013
109%
94%
Q3/2013
200,000
-3.3%
-4%
SUV
-20%
15%
-5%
0%
0
Van
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
5.0%
4%
200,000
Pickup
Straight-Time Utilization
800,000
16.6%
Total U.S.
Small Car
20%
19.9%
Y/Y Percent Change by Segment Group (Aug. 2014)
1.0
U.S.
North America
Available Production
800,000
600,000
2.5
Millions
Production
Units (millions)
U.S. Sales vs. Inventory
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1/2014
2/2014
3/2014
4/2014
5/2014
6/2014
7/2014
8/2014
Units (millions)
2.0
Trailing 12-Mo. Sales
-9.0%
-10%
Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
108%
Q2/2013
96%
Q1/2013
80%
Insight & Analysis from
90%
100% 110%
Fiat-Chrysler: Why
?
(+) Overall sales, share, production still strong (though y/y
volumes start to flatten)
(+) Gradually solidifying North American product portfolio
(+) Appear committed to Windsor investment, indicating
don’t expect contentious negotiations next year with
Canada union
(?) But a lot of older product still behind sales gains;
conceded in Q2 earnings report that U.S. incentives hurt
margins
(?) Lengthy early tooling shutdowns at plants in Canada,
Mexico in Q1 and Q2 2015 a temporary drag
(-) Corporate’s heavy dependence on North America
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Insight & Analysis from
Toyota By-The-Numbers: Turning Positive
YTD Sales (Jan.-Aug.)
Trailing 12-Mo. Sales
3.0
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
10
Total U.S.
Millions
2.5
8
Van
SUV
6
2.0
1.0
Mexico
Middle Car
8/2014
Canada
Large Car
1.5
6/2014
0
North America U.S.
CUV
Luxury Car
1.5
2013
0.0
2
2011
0.0
2009
0.1
2.0
U.S.
North America
4
0.5
Small Car
-20%
Available Production
Production
Units (millions)
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
600,000
400,000
8%
4%
3.5%
2%
200,000
Units (millions)
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
0.1%
-2.2%
3.3%
3%
2.3%
2%
400,000
1%
0%
200,000
-1%
-1.9%
-4%
0
Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
40%
104%
Q1/2015 (Forecast)
4%
0%
-2%
20%
5%
4.2%
600,000
0%
Straight-Time Utilization
800,000
6.0%6%
5.9%
YTD Sales
Aug. Inventory
Pickup
2.5
4/2014
1.5
Y/Y Percent Change by Segment Group (Aug. 2014)
3.0
2/2014
Units (millions)
1.8
1.6
2.0
U.S. Sales vs. Inventory
-1.6%
-2%
0
-3%
Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
93%
Q4/2014 (Forecast)
94%
Q3/2014 (Estimate)
111%
Q2/2014
99%
Q1/2014
97%
Q4/2013
Q3/2013
90%
109%
Q2/2013
100%
Q1/2013
80%
Insight & Analysis from
90%
100%
110%
Toyota: Why
?
(+) Sales, share still going up
(+) Refreshed Camry should reassert its mid-car
dominance; new Lexus NX small luxury CUV
(?) Seeing some global weakness
(-) Scion flagging
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Insight & Analysis from
Honda By-The-Numbers: Continue Weakness
YTD Sales (Jan.-Aug.)
Trailing 12-Mo. Sales
U.S. Sales vs. Inventory
Y/Y Percent Change by Segment Group (Aug. 2014)
Units (millions)
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
6
1.5
1.2
1.2
2.0
Total U.S.
Millions
4
1.0
2.0
1.5
Van
1.5
2
SUV
0
-2
Canada
Large Car
-6
0.5
Mexico
Production
Units (millions)
0.5
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
600,000
8/2014
North America U.S.
Luxury Car
Middle Car
6/2014
0.0
CUV
1.0
-4
4/2014
0.0
2013
0.1
2009
0.3
U.S.
North America
1.0
2011
0.6
2/2014
0.9
Small Car
-40%
Available Production
6%
Units (millions)
600,000
3.7%
4.3%4%
300,000
2%
150,000
0%
-0.2%
-0.9%
0
-1.9%
-2%
Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
13.4%
450,000
9.9%
300,000
150,000
-20%
0%
16%
Q1/2015 (Forecast)
14%
Q4/2014 (Forecast)
12%
Q3/2014 (Estimate)
10%
Q2/2014
8.4%8%
Q1/2014
6%
Q4/2013
4%
Q3/2013
2%
Q2/2013
4.4%
0
0%
Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
20%
40%
Straight-Time Utilization
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
14.8%
450,000
YTD Sales
Aug. Inventory
Pickup
91%
83%
81%
85%
96%
89%
92%
98%
99%
Q1/2013
80%
Insight & Analysis from
90%
100% 110%
Honda: Why
?
(-) Declining sales and dull product portfolio
(-) U.S. inventory down from year-ago; good that
manufacturer is undertaking inventory control, but
possibly indicative it does not expect sales to rebound
rest of the year.
(-) Acura trending down again after temporary success
from two redesigned CUVs (MDX, RDX)
(+) New Fit and Fit-based HR-V crossover built at new
plant in Mexico
(?) Behind expectations in China, though expect
overall demand in Asia (especially Japan) to improve
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Insight & Analysis from
Nissan By-The-Numbers: Mostly Positive
YTD Sales (Jan.-Aug.)
1.5
1.0
Units (millions)
600,000
23.4%
20%
19.1%
15%
14.9%
10.2%
Units (millions)
8/2014
6/2014
4/2014
-20%
200,000
16.2%
-5%
-7.2%
-10%
Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
20%
40%
60%
105%
Q3/2014 (Estimate)
16%
Q2/2014
111%
12%
Q1/2014
113%
8%
6.1%
4%
150,000
0%
-1.6%
0
104%
20%
10.1%
300,000
0%
0%
Q4/2014 (Forecast)
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
450,000
10.7%
YTD Sales
Aug. Inventory
Q1/2015 (Forecast)
600,000
10%
5%
0
0.5
Available Production
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
25%
400,000
1.0
U.S.
North America
0.5
Production
Total U.S.
Pickup
Van
SUV
CUV
Luxury Car
Large Car
Middle Car
Small Car
1.5
2/2014
North America U.S.
Y/Y Percent Change by Segment Group (Aug. 2014)
Millions
2013
1.0
U.S. Sales vs. Inventory
2.0
2011
1.2
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0.2
0.1
0
-5
Canada Mexico
2.0
2009
Units (millions)
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Trailing 12-Mo. Sales
96%
94%
Q4/2013
99%
Q3/2013
Q2/2013
108%
Q1/2013
108%
-4%
Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
80%
Insight & Analysis from
90%
100% 110%
Nissan: Why
?
(+) Sales, production still running on nearly all
cylinders
(+) Added capacity leading to more sales
(?) Not impressed with overall portfolio,
including powertrain – does not seem to
match market success
(+/-) Pulling back on incentives for Altima –
sign of a bigger trend?
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Insight & Analysis from
Hyundai/Kia By-The-Numbers: Improving
YTD Sales (Jan.-Aug.)
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
North America U.S.
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
0.1
1
0
0.0
-1
-2
Canada Mexico
2.0
Units (millions)
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
U.S.
North America
0.5
0.0
9.2%
150,000
8%
4.6%
200,000
0.9%
0.5
0.0
Units (millions)
-20%
200,000
0.8%0%
150,000
100,000
50,000
-8%
50,000
-12%
Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
20%
3.6%
Q4/2014 (Forecast)
Q3/2014 (Estimate)
2%
1.6%
0%
Q2/2014
-1.6%
-2%
-3.1%
40%
60%
Q3/2013
Q2/2013
-3.1%
0
-4%
Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
150%
142%
146%
138%
149%
Q1/2014
Q4/2013
-4%
-10.4%
0%
Q1/2015 (Forecast)
4%
250,000
4%
YTD Sales
Aug. Inventory
Straight-Time Utilization
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
300,000
100,000
0
Total U.S.
Pickup
Van
SUV
CUV
Luxury Car
Large Car
Middle Car
Small Car
Available Production
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
12%
250,000
Y/Y Percent Change by Segment Group (Aug. 2014)
2.0
Millions
Production
300,000
U.S. Sales vs. Inventory
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1/2014
2/2014
3/2014
4/2014
5/2014
6/2014
7/2014
8/2014
Units (millions)
0.5
Trailing 12-Mo. Sales
Q1/2013
130%
139%
155%
148%
80% 100% 120% 140% 160%
Insight & Analysis from
Hyundai/Kia: Why
?
(-) Major labor issues in home-base South Korea –
stills source a lot of product globally from there,
including to North America
(-) Rising won also hurting profits
(-) Higher discounts in U.S. hurt Q2 profits
(+)Kia sales up; new Sedona and Sorento on the
way
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Insight & Analysis from
Volkswagen/Audi By-The-Numbers: Split
Millions
YTD Sales (Jan.-Aug.)
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
200,000
1.3%
4%
1.9%
0%
-4%
100,000
8/2014
6/2014
4/2014
0.0
-20%
300,000
Units (millions)
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
-11.7%
0
-19.4%
-12%
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Q4/2014 (Forecast)
83%
Q2/2014
-1.7%
-2%
Q1/2014
-4%
Q4/2013
-6%
Q3/2013
-8%
Q2/2013
-10%
Q1/2013
100,000
0
Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
83%
0%
-0.4%
-20%
10%
Q1/2015 (Forecast)
Q3/2014 (Estimate)
200,000
-16%
0%
2%
2.0%
50,000
6%
4%
250,000
150,000
-10%
YTD Sales
Aug. Inventory
20%
Straight-Time Utilization
-8%
50,000
Total U.S.
Pickup
Van
SUV
CUV
Luxury Car
Large Car
Middle Car
Small Car
Available Production
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
12%
10.5%
8%
150,000
Y/Y Percent Change by Segment Group (Aug. 2014)
0.2
0.0
Production
Units (millions)
U.S.
North America
0.2
2/2014
North America U.S.
0.8
2013
0.4
1.0
2011
0.5
Y/Y % Chg. (R-scale)
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
0.1
-4
0.1
-6
-8
Canada Mexico
U.S. Sales vs. Inventory
1.0
2009
Units (millions)
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Trailing 12-Mo. Sales
-7.0%
-9.9%
Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015
(Estimate) (Forecast) (Forecast)
85%
96%
81%
75%
84%
109%
101%
70% 80% 90% 100% 110%
Insight & Analysis from
Volkswagen ( )/Audi( ): Why
?
(-) Sales down for all VW brand vehicles
(?) Union issue in Chattanooga over?
(+) Much needed midsize CUV confirmed for
Chattanooga
(+) Still Audi, Audi, Audi – all new Small Luxury
CUV Q3 on sale October; freshened A8 for ‘15
model year
(+) Globally, VW doing well – on pace to outdo
Toyota for world sales crown
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Insight & Analysis from
Rest of the Industry: Why
?
(+)BMW, Mercedes, Land Rover Jaguar riding high
on luxury wave
(+) More new product coming from BMW (X6),
Mercedes (C-Class, GLA)
(+) Subaru share, sales heading for records with
new Legacy and Outback
(+) Mazda sales up; new Mazda2 in Q4, Miata in
Q1 2015
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Insight & Analysis from
SALES
Long-Term Outlook
PRODUCTION
2014 Full-Year Forecast
N. America: 16.9 million (+5.1%)
U.S. 11.5 million (+5.9%)
Canada: 2.3 million (-2.6%)
Mexico: 3.2 million (+8.6%)
2014 Full-Year Forecast
N. America: 19.3 million (+3.7%)
U.S. 16.3 million (+5.2%)
Canada: 1.8 million (+4.6%)
Mexico: 1.1 million (+3.9%)
20
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
Mexico
10
Canada
U.S.
8
10
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Insight & Analysis from
CONTACT US TODAY:
LISA WILLIAMSON
lwilliamson@wardsauto.com
248-799-2642
AMBER MCLINCHA
amclincha@wardsauto.com
248-799-2622
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst
Insight & Analysis from