CityOfDelightsFinal_City_Report

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October 26, 2012

ORF 467

Land Use Characteristics

Land use distribution

Map/Summary Tables

Demographics and Quality of Life

Demand for Transportation

Trip Generation

Table of Contents

Trip Productions and Attractions

Trips Type Purposes

Home-based Work

Home-based Education

Home-based Shop/Dine/Recreation/Other

Non-Home-based

Summary Trip Production and Attraction Tables

Trip Distribution

Trip Arrays Generation

Trip Arrays for Trip types

Summary of Trip demand

PersonTripLengthDistribution Analysis

Homebased Work Transportation Demand Implications

1/D Gravity Model

1/sqrt(D) Gravity Model

Person Trip Length Trip Length Distribution

3

7

7

11

2

Land Use Distribution and other Fundamental Characteristics

DD’s City of Delights is a square area of land totaling 102.4 square miles. It supports approximately 70% developed space and 30% undeveloped space (i.e. water and open space). The developed space is then further divided into areas of residential, commercial, recreational, educational and other types of land use. DD’s is characterized by mass urban development: it supports many land zones used for manufacturing, transportation, and commericial purposes.

At its center is a large rectangular sized theme park, modeled after Disney’s theme park (thus the city’s name). The table below summarizes the city’s total land use.

Land type

Commercial

Light Manufacturing

Heavy manufacturing

Agriculture

Public office

Recreational

Restaurants

Water

Open space

Theme park

Educational

Hotels

Transportational Center

Light residential

Medium residential

Large residential

Very large residential

Map Color # Sq. Miles % of total land

4.6

6.7

4.49%

6.54%

7

2.4

2.3

3.2

6.84%

2.34%

2.25%

3.13%

2.5

5

7.6

8.4

9.4

2

16.6

15.2

4.9

2.2

2.4

1.95%

16.21%

14.84%

4.79%

2.15%

2.34%

2.44%

4.88%

7.42%

8.20%

9.18%

102.4

100.00%

Population/Sq. Miles

1,500

6,000

9,000

300

500

500

500

0

0

2,500

800

600

1,000

5,000

7,750

8,750

10,000

Land Use Capacity

6,900

40,200

63,000

720

1,150

1,600

1,000

0

0

12,250

1,760

1,440

2,500

25,000

58,900

73,500

94,000

Total land

Undeveloped Space

Developed Space

31.8

70.6

31.05%

68.95%

Below is the map of DD’s. The numbers on the zones correspond to their index in later production and attraction arrays.

20

21

22

23

16

17

18

19

10

11

12

13

14

15

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

5

6

7

8

9

3

4

1

2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

1

14

42

15 43

16 17

13

2 3 18 19 40 41

44 46 45

20 21

4 61

5 6

7

8

23

62

22

24 25

26

27

38

37

39

36

35

52

50

51

47

46

49

48

53 54

55

34 57 56

29 28

9 10

11

30

30

31

30

33

58

59 60

32

12 59

59

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

20

21

22

23

16

17

18

19

10

11

12

13

14

15

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

5

6

7

8

9

3

4

1

2

168

152

32

22

25

24

20

67

70

24

21

49

50

76

84

94

46

1024

KEY

Water

Open space

Donald Duck Theme Park

Light Residential

Medium Residential

Large Residential

Very Large Residential

Commercial

Light Manufacturing/Industrial

Heavy Manufacturing/Industrial

Agriculture

Public Buildings

Other Recreational

Educational

Transportation Center

Hotels

Restaurants

3

Demographics

Residential

Light residential

Medium residential

Large residential

Very large residential

Total

Employment

Commercial

Light Manufacturing

Heavy manufacturing

Agriculture

Public office

Recreational

Restaurants

Theme park

Educational

Hotels

Transportational center

Total

Residential Capacity

25000

58900

73500

94000

251400

6900

40200

63000

720

1150

1600

1000

12250

1760

1440

2500

132520

Light Residential: typically 1-2 people per household; can hold a total 25000 people

Medium Residential: typically 2-3 people per household; can hold a total of 58900 people

Large Residential: typically 4-5 people per household; can hold a total of

73500 people

Very Large Residential: typically >5 people per household; can hold a total of 94000 people

In the above chart, each type of zone that employs workers is listed. Commercial zones, in total, employ 6900 of the worker population, for example. Manufacturing employs the most workers (with light manufacturing at 40200 and heavy manufacturing at 63000), while agriculture employs the least (720). In total, there are 132520 employed workers in DD’s, and the unemployment rate is at 9.72%. This implies that approximately 60% of the total population is part of the labor force for the city. Though actual data for real cities vary, 60% seems like a good rule of thumb for the labor force percentage.

There is a total population of 250000 people, whose population breakdown is given in the following chart.

Approximately 8% of the population is children under 5, 24% are students aging from 5 to 20 years old, 53% are employed workers aging from 21 to 66 years old, 6% are unemployed workers aging from 21 to 66 years old, and

9% are the elderly (age 66 and over). These figures were modelled after the population statistics for Los Angeles in the 1990’s.

Of the employed workers, 6626 are home workers, meaning that they work or telecommute in their homes rather than travel to a workplace any given day. Children under 5 do not qualify as “trip-makers”, while the rest of the population makes about 4 trips a day per person on average. In total, an average of 920000 trips are made on any given day in DD’s.

Population Breakdown

Children under 5

Students (5 - 20 year olds)

Workers (21-66 year olds)

Elderly (66+ year olds) & unemployed

Total

20,000

60,000

132,520

37,480

250,000

4

There are 5 zones used for education purposes, whose types (including elementary school, middle school, high school, and university) are given in the following chart. 40% of the enrolled students attend middle or elementary school, 30% attend high school, and 30% attend university. A total of 2.16% of the total land area in the city is devoted towards educational purposes.

Education Zoning:

Zone Type

3 elementary + middle

16 high school (vocational)

22 elementary + middle

28 university

53 high school

Area (sq. mi.) % of Land

0.6

0.2

0.3

0.6

0.5

Total

0.59%

0.20%

0.29%

0.59%

0.49%

Enrollment

15000

6000

9000

18000

12000

60000

The city has a total of 62 zones, one of which is a major river that runs directly across the entire city while various others are also open spaces that will not contribute toward the production or attraction of any trips for the city. This river separates a narrow strip of the city from the rest, more bulkier part. Of note, most of the commercial, recreational zones are located on the more bulkier part, to the right of the river. Also, residential areas tend to be located on the sides of the city, while other zones that tend to be visited by more varied groups tend to be located in the center of the city. The zones are all rectangular shaped.

Recreational areas and commercial areas have certain floor space amounts that can be converted into the number of patrons such areas can support at a point in time. These were based off of estimates for the percentage of land in a given commercial or recreational zone that may be used as support areas for the activities that go on there and are not intend to be visited by any customers/patrons

Centroids are chosen as the point within the zone that has the most concentrated activity at an point in time; this is obviously a generalized model of actual zone activities, but is the easiest representation that is still reliably conceivable.

5

Zone Summary Chart

Zone Type river

1 open space

2 recreational (movie theater)

3 educational (elementary & middle)

4 light residential

5 commercial (strip malls)

6 heavy manufacturing

7 agriculture

8 light manufacturing

9 medium residential

10 commercial (individual stores)

11 restaurant

12 open space

13 open space

14 heavy manufacturing

15 public

16 educational (vocational high school)

17 restaurant

18 commercial (individual stores)

19 medium residential

20 medium residential

21 recreational (sports std.,golf course,etc.)

22 educational (elementary & middle)

23 open space

24 commercial (mall)

25 heavy manufacturing

26 water

27 heavy manufacturing

28 educational (university)

29 public

30 large residential

31 commercial (strip malls)

32 very large residential

33 medium residential

34 light manufacturing

35 recreational (movie theater,stage plays,etc.)

36 hotel

37 restaurant

38 commercial (upscale stores)

39 theme park

40 commercial (theme park related / mall)

41 restaurant

42 light residential

43 open space

44 water

45 very large residential

46 large residential

47 open space

48 light manufacturing

49 commercial (outlets and big box stores)

50 public

51 transportation

52 commercial (mall)

53 educational (high school)

54 very large residential

55 water

56 open space

57 public

58 restaurant

59 large residential

60 open space

61 hotel

62 open space

30

32

7

30

24

10

4

2

49

4

2

6

4

24

6

39

25

12

8

15

20

3

16

28

9

6

8

No. of pixels Area (sq miles) % of total land centroid (x-coor) centroid (y-coor) School Enrollment Floor Space (sq miles)

118 11.8

11.52% ----

30

4

6

20

4

4

24

25

3.0

0.4

0.6

2.0

0.4

0.4

2.4

2.5

2.93%

0.39%

0.59%

1.95%

0.39%

0.39%

2.34%

2.44%

3

1

4

3

1

3

3

3

3

7

12

10

13

13

17

23

0

0

15000

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0.16

0.28

0

2.3

6

2

2

4

8

28

4

6

8

10

30

2.8

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

3.0

0.6

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.8

2.73%

0.39%

0.59%

0.78%

0.98%

2.93%

0.59%

0.20%

0.20%

0.39%

0.78%

3

5

5

6

22

15

11

10

11

9

12

29

31

29

31

6

3

3

5

5

7

6

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

6000

0

0

0

0

0.2

0.45

0

0

2.8

0

0

0.1

0.2

0

25

25

9

6

36

12

14

20

6

30

6

4

25

10

5

25

1.5

2.0

0.3

0.9

0.6

0.8

1.6

2.8

0.6

0.4

2.4

0.6

3.9

2.5

1.2

0.8

1.0

0.4

0.2

4.9

0.4

0.2

3.0

3.2

0.7

3.0

2.4

0.6

3.0

0.6

0.4

2.5

1.0

0.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

0.9

0.6

3.6

1.2

1.4

2.0

1.46%

1.95%

0.29%

0.88%

0.59%

0.78%

1.56%

2.73%

0.59%

0.39%

2.34%

0.59%

3.81%

2.44%

1.17%

0.78%

0.98%

0.39%

0.20%

4.79%

0.39%

0.20%

2.93%

3.13%

0.68%

2.93%

2.34%

0.59%

2.93%

0.59%

0.39%

2.44%

0.98%

0.49%

2.44%

2.44%

2.44%

0.88%

0.59%

3.52%

1.17%

1.37%

1.95%

9

12

12

10

12

14

15

13

13

10

13

16

18

20

18

18

20

16

16

20

17

19

21

28

24

30

26

26

30

26

23

24

20

27

30

30

25

21

23

27

31

15

11

11

10

13

15

15

14

18

22

25

25

28

25

31

27

22

18

15

15

13

11

6

7

3

2

11

8

8

13

13

15

15

19

19

19

19

24

24

23

28

29

29

9

18

0

0

9000

0

0

0

0

0

18000

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

12000

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2.6

0.39

0

0

0.8

0

0

0

0

0

0.4

0

0

0

0

0

0.24

0.1

0

0.28

0.1

0

0

0

0

0

0.24

0

0

0.8

0

0

0

0

0

0.36

0.6

0

2.4

0

0

0

1024 102.4

100% 60000 15.8

Note: The river running through the city is not indexed as a zone, and thus will not count towards any trip productions or attractions since it is assumed that no activity goes on there.

6

Trip Generation

Process for Trip Production Generation: Each of the 9 production arrays for the different types of trips uses a slightly different method for trip production generation. However, the main idea behind them is the same. We first determine the number of trips that will be made for a certain type, and then proceed to break down the percentages for the zones producing the trip. One zone might, for example, produce 5% of the trips for a certain type, while another zone may produce 20% of the trips. More generally, for a certain trip type, a trip rate (trips per square mile) is generated for each type of production zone (commercial type, recreational type, etc.). This trip rate is based off of a trip generator number, which in essence is simply the number of people in a given type of zone that is likely to generate production for the given trip type.

For example, for home-based school trips, it is given that the total trips in the trip production across all the zones must equal 60000, since this is the number of enrolled students that attend some education zone on any given day.

For the production array, all zones except the residential zones will have a value of zero, and the values for the residential zones must add up to 60000. Given this information, it is then just a matter of determining what percentage of the total population in a given residential zone are aged 5 to 20. In general, the assumption was that light residential zones would have a smaller student-aged population than very large (heavily populated) residential zones, while medium residential zones and large residential zones would be somewhere in the middle.

Process for Trip Attraction Generation: Each of the 9 attraction arrays for the different types of trips uses a slightly different method for trip attraction generation. However, the main idea behind them is the same. It is given that the sum of the attraction numbers in the attraction array must necessarily equal the sum of the production array. Given this, we can then proceed to break down this sum for the production array and determine what percentage of this sum will correspond to an attraction zone type.

For example, for non-home-based school trip types, the attractions are all the zones excluding the residential zones

(and of course, the undeveloped open space/water zones). Commercial zones and recreational zones are assumed to produce larger attraction values than manufacturing or public office zones. As such, 25% of the produced trips correspond to commercial attractions, 25.6% correspond to recreational attractions, 19% correspond to the theme park attraction (this is due to the fact that school aged children are likely to be attracted to such places), and only

0.1% correspond to zone types such as heavy or light manufacturing. A trip rate (trips per square mile) is deduced based on these percentages, and the attraction value for a certain zone is simply the zone’s area (actual area or floor space if it is a commercial/recreational zone) multiplied by the trip rate number.

Home-based Work: Home-based work includes inbound and outbound home-based work trip types. For this trip type, the production arrays have non-zero elements for only the residential (home) zones and the attraction arrays have non-zero values for only the zones that employ workers. In other words, these trips are “produced” at the home zones, and attracted to the zones with employment capacity (which gives rise to the trip’s purpose). Since production and attraction do not depend on direction, both inbound and outbound home-based work trips follow this logic.

Chart of attraction zone types for inbound and outbound home-based work trips:

Employment type commercial light Manufacturing heavy manufacturing agriculture public recreational restaurants theme park educational hotels transportation

Total

Total area (sq. miles) Population / Sq. mile Employment Capacity

4.6

1500 6900

6.7

7

6000

9000

40200

63000

2.4

2.3

3.2

300

500

500

720

1150

1600

2

4.9

2.2

2.4

2.5

500

2500

800

600

1000

1000

12250

1760

1440

2500

132520

7

Home-based Education: Home-based education (school) includes inbound and outbound home-based education trip types. For this trip type, the production arrays have non-zero elements for only the residential (home) zones and the attraction arrays have non-zero values for only the zones that serve educational purposes. In other words, these trips are “produced” at the home zones, and attracted to the zones that provide schooling for enrolled students (which gives rise to the trip’s purpose). Since production and attraction do not depend on direction, both inbound and outbound home-based work trips follow this logic.

The chart below summarizes the relationship between the residential zone types and the educational zones. For example, light residential zones have a total of 1500 students enrolled in educational zone 3, which is a elementary and middle school education zone.

Residential Type light residential medium residential large residential very large residential

Total Students Enrolled at each Educational Zone According to Residential Type

Residential Capacity Ed. Zone 3 Ed. Zone 16 Ed Zone. 22 Ed Zone. 28 Ed Zone. 53

25000

58900

73500

1500

3000

4500

1200

1800

1800

900

1800

2700

3600

5400

5400

1200

2400

3600

94000 6000 1200 3600 3600 4800

Education Zoning:

Zone Type

3 elementary + middle

16 high school (vocational)

22 elementary + middle

28 university

53 high school

Area (sq. mi.)% of total land Enrollment

0.6

0.59% 15000

0.2

0.3

0.20%

0.29%

6000

9000

0.6

0.5

0.59%

0.49%

18000

12000

Total Enrollment 60000

Home-based Shop/Dine/Recreation/Other: Home-based shop/dine/recreation(SDR) includes inbound and outbound home-based SDR trip types. For this trip type, the production arrays have non-zero elements for only the residential

(home) zones and the attraction arrays have non-zero values for only the zones that serve recreational, shopping, dining, or similar purposes. In other words, these trips are “produced” at the home zones, and attracted to the zones that provide services related to recreational, commercial, etc. (these services, or attractions, give rise to the trip’s purpose). Since production and attraction do not depend on direction, both inbound and outbound home-based work trips follow this logic.

The chart below summarizes which zone types are counted as shopping, dining, recreational, or similar attractions.

Commerical zones, recreational zones, dining/restaurant zones, as well as the theme park zone compose a high percentage of the total attractions (25%, 25.6%, 20%, and 19% respectively). There is also a small percentage of trips made with the transportation center or public office zones as the attraction. Finally, light manufacturing, heavy manufacturing, agricultural, and educational zones are also included but given an extremely small percentage

(almost negligible) to account for any trips that may have these zone types as attractions. It would also have been conceivable to simply not have any trips that use these zone types as attractions.

Land type commercial light Manufacturing heavy manufacturing agriculture public offices recreational restaurants theme park educational hotels transportation center

Area

4.6

6.7

7

2.4

2.3

3.2

2

4.9

2.2

2.4

2.5

Population / SQ Mile Capacity % of total attractions

1,500.00

6,000.00

9,000.00

300.00

500.00

500.00

500.00

2500

800

600

1000

6,900.00

40,200.00

63,000.00

720.00

1,150.00

1,600.00

1000

12250

1760

1440

2500

25.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

3.0

25.6

20.0

19.0

1.0

0.1

6.0

8

Non-home-based: Non-home-based trips include non-home-based work trips (NHBW), non-home-based school trips

(NHBS), non-home-based other trips (NHBSR).

For NHBW trips, the production array includes non-zero elements only for the zones with employment capacity

(work zones), and the attraction array are the “other” options not including residential zones (the biggest players would be commerical, recreational, etc. zones). The trips are “produced” at work zones (hence, non-home-based), and “attracted” to the zones that provide “other” services such as commercial or recreational services (these services, or attractions, give rise to the trip purpose).

For NHBS trips, the production array includes non-zero elements for the zones with student enrollment (educational zones), and the attraction array are the “other” options not including residential zones (again, the biggest players would be recreational, commercial, etc.). The trips are “produced” at school zones (hence, non-home-based), and

“attracted” to the zones that provide “other” services such as commercial or recreational services (these services, or attractions, give rise to the trip purpose).

For NHBSR trips, the production and attraction arrays are exactly equal (with non-zero elements for the “other” zones not including residential zones) as we assume that the total number of trips produced at and attracted to a particular zone is the same. The trips are “produced” at zones that provide “other” services (hence, non-homebased), and “attracted” to the zones that provide “other” services (these services, or attractions, give rise to the trip purpose).

The chart directly above gives a summary of the “other” zones for the non-home-based trip types. Namely, these

“other” zones are mainly used for commercial, recreational, or similar purposes.

Summary Trip Production and Attraction Tables:

Trip Type

Outbound Homebased Work

(OHBW)

Outbound Homebased School

(OHBS)

Outbound Homebased

Shop/Recreate/Other

(OHBSDR)

60000

154260

Inbound Home-based

Work (IHBW)

Productions per Zone

132520

66260

Attractions per Zone

Comments

132520 Total # of jobs (or total # of workers)

60000

154260

66260

Total # of enrolled students

Assumed that the 37480 elderly and umemployed population would make approximately 4 trips on average per person

50% of Outbound home-based work

Links hw3_2.xls#OHBW_P_A_arrays hw3_2.xls#OHBS_P_A_arrays hw3_2.xls#OHBSDR_P_A_arrays hw3_2.xls#IHBW_P_A_arrays

42000 Inbound Home-based

School (IHBS)

42000

Inbound Home-based

Shop/Recreate/Other

(IHBSDR)

Work-based Nonhome (WBNH)

238520

66260

School-based Nonhome (SBNH)

18000

238520

66260

18000

70% of Outbound home-based school

IHBSDR = OHBSDR +

OHBW – IHBW + OHBS –

IHBS

50% of Outbound home-based school hw3_2.xls#IHBS_P_A_arrays hw3_2.xls#IHBSDR_P_A_arrays hw3_2.xls#WBNH_P_A_arrays

30% of Outbound home-based school hw3_2.xls#SBNH_P_A_arrays

9

Shop/Recreate/Other based Non-home

(NHBSR)

142180 142180 Assuming that each of the

230000 trips makers

(excluding children under 5) make 4 trips on average, there would be a total of 920000 trips on any average day. The

NHBSR production and attraction numbers came from this assumption. hw3_2.xls#NHBSR_P_A_arrays

10

Trip Distribution:

Trip Arrays Generation Process:

After determining production and attraction vectors, we generated trip arrays according to the gravity model, using a friction coefficient of one divided by the distance squared:

𝑇 𝑖𝑗

= 𝑃 𝑖

𝐴 𝑗

𝐹 𝑖𝑗

∑ 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑠

𝐴 𝑗

𝐹 𝑖𝑗

𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝐹 𝑖𝑗

=

1

𝐷 2 𝑖𝑗

This gives us trip matrices in which the row sums produce the elements of the production vector, and the column sums (ideally) produce the elements of the attraction vector, while trips are weighted by the inverse square of their distance. We follow an iteratively convergent process to generate a “false” attraction vector input for the trip matrix, such that it produces an output which has the column sums of the “true” attractions we are hoping to get.

This allows us to keep the trip distribution given by the gravity model while remaining consistent with the zonespecific attraction amounts.

Trip Array Links:

Trip Array Type Links

Outbound Home-based Work (OHBW) hw3_2.xls#OHBW_TA

Outbound Home-based School (OHBS)

Outbound Home-based Shop/Recreate/Other

(OHBSDR)

Inbound Home-based Work (IHBW) hw3_2.xls#OHBS_TA hw3_2.xls#OHBSDR_TA hw3_2.xls#IHBW_TA

Inbound Home-based School (IHBS) hw3_2.xls#IHBS_TA

Inbound Home-based Shop/Recreate/Other (IHBSDR) hw3_2.xls#IHBSDR_TA

Work-based Non-home (WBNH)

School-based Non-home (SBNH)

Shop/Recreate/Other based Non-home (NHBSR) hw3_2.xls#WBNH_TA hw3_2.xls#SBNH_TA hw3_2.xls#NHBSR_TA

11

Summary of Trip demand:

Cumulative Trip-Distance Charts:

Home

Work

Cumulative Trip Density

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

Trip Distance (Miles)

15.00

20.00

Home

School

Trips

1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

0 2

OBHSt Trip Density

4 6 8

Distance (miles)

10 12 14

Home

Other

12

Cumulative Trip Density

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Trip Distance (Miles)

12.0

14.0

16.0

Work

Home

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

0.0

Cumulative Trip Density

5.0

10.0

Trip Distance (Miles)

15.0

Work

Other

20.0

13

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00

0.0

Cumulative Trip Density

5.0

10.0

Trip Distance (Miles)

15.0

School

Home

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00

0.0

School

Other

2.0

Cumulative Trip Density

4.0

6.0

8.0

Trip Distance (Miles)

10.0

12.0

14.0

14

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00

0.00

Cumulative Trip Density

5.00

10.00

Trip Distance (Miles)

Other

Home

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00

0.0

Cumulative Trip Density

5.0

10.0

Trip Distance (Miles)

15.0

Other

Other

15.00

20.0

15

Cumulative Trip Density

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00

0 5

Trip Distance (Miles)

10 15

Cumulative Trip Density

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Trip Distance (Miles)

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Non-home-based Other

Non-home-based work

Non-home-based school

Inbound Home-based other

Outbound Home-based other

Outbound home-based work

Inbound home-based work

Inbound home-based school

Outbound home-based school

The trip density graphs varied from concave to S-curve shapes. The School

Home and Home

School plots were concave and had the most linear appearance. Home

Other , Other

Home , and Other

Other were clearly concave as well, with the sharpest increases on the left side f the graphs. Finally, Home

Work ,

Work

Home , Work

Other , and School

Other were S-curve shaped, meaning the plot was first convex

16

and then concave. School

Other had the least consistent growth, as it appeared to have convex ridges. Most of the plot appeared quite shaky before the 5-mile trip distance mark.

PTM = PersonTripMiles

PT = PersonTrips

Outbound

Homebased

Work

Outbound

Homebased

School

Outbound

Home-based

Shop/recreat e/other

PT

M

0 0

1 704

2 15287

3 36088

4 20734

5 12206

6 9379

7 9484

8 8750

9 4487

10 2516

11 7013

12 302

13 1558

14 464

15

16

2

14

PT PT PT PTM PT

M

0 0

1 1162

2 5556

3 9242

4 2659

5 7002

6 5944

7 4792

8 3334

9 4395

10 2885

11 1491

12 2441

13 1301

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

5

6

7

8

3

4

0

1

2

6495

5538

1311

1551

638

1019

45

320

0

8211

25069

15963

15881

32973

15596

11776

10247

Inbound

Home-based

Work

PTM PT

0

352

7643

17599

9350

7469

4731

4509

4419

2311

1257

2779

871

792

232

1

7

9

10

11

12

6

7

8

3

4

5

0

1

2

13

14

15

16

Inbound

Home-based

School

PTM

10

11

8

9

12

13

6

7

4

5

2

3

0

1

PT

0

813

3889

3055

5275

4901

4160

3354

2325

3085

2019

1044

1709

911

Inbound

Home-based

Shop/recreate/ other

PTM

9

10

7

8

5

6

2

3

0

1

4

11

12

13

14

15

16

PT

0

12705

39383

24522

24804

51081

23981

18050

15697

9917

8515

2018

2374

948

1484

65

472

Non-homebased School

PTM

0

1

2 1873

3 1774

4

5 1680

6 1572

7

8 1498

9

10

11

12

13

PT

0

1100

5513

990

58

106

84

135

5

Non-homebased Work

PTM PT

0 0

1 3879

2 12746

3 17841

4 11551

5 8366

6 2255

7 3567

8 2051

9 716

10 1275

11

12

399

67

13

14

94

121

Person Trip Length Distribution Analysis:

Note: There are two plots for each trip type; the top graphs (number of trips at each trip distance) are simply reference, while the bottom graphs (scatter plots for which each point is a value for one TAZ) are the actual graphs that we are comparing and contrasting in turn.

H->W:

Non-homebased

Shop/recreate/ other

PTM PT

10

11

8

9

12

13

14

0 0

1 48188

2 35606

3 26584

4 16489

5 3601

6 3046

7 17675

926

1178

324

389

239

7

15

17

Person Trip Length Distribution

40000

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

-5000 0 5 10

Trip Distance (Miles)

15 20

For home-based work trips, we see a possible s curve effect. For the lower trip lengths, there are no places of work near the home, while for the higher distances we see the effects of the gravity model. We see an almost linear growth in number of trips in the middle of the graph (trip length 3-5 miles), which is likely due to the way our city was zoned; areas with many jobs tend to be 3-5 miles from residential areas.

H->S

18

Person Trip Length Distribution

10000

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

0 2 4 6 8

Trip Distance (Miles)

10 12 14

For the home-based school trips, we see a relatively flat relationship between the trip length and the number of trips.

This is likely due to our city’s layout, where trip distances are increased if the origination and destination are on different sides of the river. Through the gravity model, this keeps children heavily clustered at nearby schools, and so this plot reflects the distance from homes to schools.

H->Other

19

Person Trip Length Distribution

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

0 5 10

Trip Distance (Miles)

15 20

Again, for home-based other trips we see an almost linear relationship between trip length and number of trips.

Noting the scale of the x axis, we see that there are very few long distance trips in this category, when compared to other home-based categories. The linear effect again likely comes from the positioning of our zones in which the largest attractions tend to be the farthest from residential areas.

W->H

20

Person Trip Length Distribution

20000

18000

16000

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

-2000 0 5 10

Trip Distance (Miles)

15 20

See notes on H->W distribution.

W->Other

21

Person Trip Length Distribution

20000

18000

16000

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

0 5

Trip Distance (Miles)

10 15

Work-based other trips provides one of the most interesting distributions, with a great deal more data points to observe. We see many points with low numbers of trips, reflecting the many workplaces which employ small numbers of workers. These trip lengths tend to be lower, and we do not see any of the linear relationships of other plots. This seems logical, since post-work trips to shopping and recreation tend to be limited to small distances from the workplace.

S->H

22

Person Trip Length Distribution

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

0 2 4 6 8

Trip Distance (Miles)

10 12 14

See notes on H->S distribution.

S->Other

23

Person Trip Length Distribution

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

-1000

0 2 4 6 8

Trip Distance (Miles)

10 12 14

For school-based other trips, we see a reappearance of the concave shape of the plot, which likely comes from the gravity model. We have relatively few nonzero data points, since there are few schools in the city. Like the workbased other trips, we see very low trip lengths, as individuals tend to choose their destination based on distance.

Other->H

24

Person Trip Length Distribution

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

0 5 10

Trip Distance (Miles)

15 20

For other-based home trips, we see the linear pattern again. This seems to be possibly related to the work-based other and school-based other trips, which bring people further away from their houses. This has a steeper slope than home-based other trips, which confirms that observation. Still, we see similar effects, likely because our largest other attractions are far away from the residential areas.

Other->Other

25

Person Trip Length Distribution

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

0 5

Trip Distance (Miles)

10 15

Other-based other trips show a great deal of noise, with a possible slight downward slope. These trips tend to be very small (smaller than almost any other trips), with shorter trip distances generally favored over trips. Again, this likely comes from the map layout, in which we cluster many of the shopping and recreation areas near each other.

This leads to very few long distance other-other trips being made.

26

Home-Based Work Transportation Demand Implications of Different Trip Distribution Behaviors :

Re-running Home-Based Work Gravity Model by replacing the 1/D^2 with 1/D (inverse distance):

30000

Person Trip Length Distribution for

1/D

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

-5000

0 5 10

Trip Distance (Miles)

15 20

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00

0.00

Cumulative Trip Density for 1/D

5.00

10.00

Trip Distance (Miles)

15.00

20.00

Re-running Home-Based Work Gravity Model by replacing the 1/D^2 with 1/sqrt(D):

27

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.0

0.0

Cumulative Trip Density for

1/sqrt(D)

5.0

10.0

Trip Distance (Miles)

15.0

20.0

18000.0

16000.0

14000.0

12000.0

10000.0

8000.0

6000.0

4000.0

2000.0

0.0

-2000.0

Person Trip Length Distribution for

1/D

0 5 10 15

Trip Distance (Miles)

20

Comparison with 1/D^2 Gravity Model:

Legend:

1/D^2

1/D

1/sqrt(D)

The overall shape of the Person Trip Length Distribution graphs for the 3 different trip distribution behaviors look very similar. However, the trip distribution using the 1/D^2 relationship has comparatively higher values for the total number of trips at a certain trip distance (in miles) than the trip distribution using the 1/D relationship.

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1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

Similarly, the trip distribution using the 1/D relationship has comparatively higher values for the total number of trips at a certain trip distance (in miles) than the trip distribution using the 1/sqrt(D) relationship. However, this analysis only remains true until the trip distance reaches approximately 4.5 miles. At this point, the relationships invert. Now, the trip distribution using the 1/sqrt(D) relationship has comparatively higher values for the total number of trips at a certain trip distance (in miles) than the trip distribution using the 1/D relationship. Similarly, the trip distribution using the 1/D relationship has comparatively higher values for the total number of trips at a certain trip distance (in miles) than the trip distribution using the 1/sqrt(D) relationship. Thus, something interesting happens at the point when the trip distance reaches approximately 4.5 miles. Before 4.5 miles, the 1/D^2 trip distribution model has a larger number of trips than the 1/D trip distribution model, and the 1/D trip distribution model has a larger number of trips than the 1/sqrt(D) trip distribution model. After 4.5 miles, the relationships are reversed.

This observation may be contributed to the friction factor F, which describes the amount of effort need to travel from one location to another location. As the denominator of F increases(from sqrt(D) to D to D^2), F decreases in magnitude as a result of its inverse relationship with distance. The observations made seem to show that as as the denominator of F increases, people tend to make a less trips of smaller distance and more trips of longer distances.

Cumulative Trip Density for H->W Trip

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Trip Distance (Miles)

12.0

14.0

16.0

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Person Trip Length Distribution for H->W Trip

40000.0

35000.0

30000.0

25000.0

20000.0

15000.0

10000.0

5000.0

0.0

-5000.0

0 2 4 6 8

Trip Distance (Miles)

10 12 14 16

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