FWI PROGRESS THROUGH 2007
• 5th year of effort w/ majority of the 22-funded FWI Projects active
• >125 peer-reviewed publications
• >>100 PI and co-I presentations at prominent National and Int’l
forums
• > 24 Graduate and Undergraduate FWI Students
• Outreach efforts: Press conferences, media interviews (CNN, NY
Times / Discovery Channel / Canadian Broadcasting Co., NPR), 2
Congressional briefings--800K Google hits from Marika Holland’s
rapid sea ice retreat study post AGU Press Conf.
Anticipated FWI Sunset
Products & Activities: 2007+
• Many forthcoming individual project articles
• JGR-Biogeosciences Special Issue (20-22 papers
accepted)
• AGU-Eos FWI summary
• Supported water-oriented session at 2007 Arctic Forum
• Arctic-CHAMP Capstone Synthesis WS (2008) (int’l as an
IPY-affiliated meeting)
• Planning for IPY and beyond (HYCOS, HYDRA, ICARP II)
• Last All-Hands, Bodega Bay CA (cast as workshop on key
findings)
• Perhaps another capstone…..
FALL 2007 AGU UNION SESSION
The Modern and Recent Arctic Environment
• Organized by Dennis Lettenmaier, Charles Vörösmarty, Jamie
Morison, and Son Nghiem
• Recommended by AGU Program Committee to be Included as
Union Session (High Profile and Large Attendance Historically)
• Forum for Bringing Together Work from Large Coordinated Efforts
Such as FWI, ASOF, SEARCH, and Many Other Related Projects
• Review of Current State of the Arctic and it’s Recent Past are Timely
Contributions to the International Polar Year (IPY)
FWI Synthesis Activities
Working Group Updates
•
Two Working Groups Initially Formed at 2004 FWI All-Hands Meeting in
Woods Hole; Third Working Group Formed at 2006 All-Hands Meeting in
Estes Park
– “Budgeteers” WG (Mark Serreze, Richard Lammers, Craig Lee, and Dick Moritz)
-- goals accomplished, paper published, group ‘disbanded’
– “CAWG” (Changes, Attributions, Impacts and Implications) WG (Marika Holland,
Jennifer Francis, Craig Lee, Max Holmes, Dan White) group making steady
progress; 1 paper in press for JGR Biogeosciences FWI Special Issue, 2nd
paper in progress
– “Intensifiers” WG (Michael Rawlins, lead) formed at 2006 Estes Park Meeting
and making good progress; paper submitted to 2007 Fall AGU Meeting
– Central Role in Synthesis and Integration Activities
•
Conference Calls ~Bi-Monthly, Coordinated by Arctic-CHAMP SMO
– Larry Hinzman, Charlie Vörösmarty, and Jonathan Pundsack Participate in Calls
– Making Steady Progress
Budgeteers Progress and Plans
Serreze M. C., A. P. Barrett,
A. G. Slater, R. A.
Woodgate, K. Aagaard, R.
B. Lammers, M. Steele, R.
Moritz, M. Meredith, C. M.
Lee
(2006),
The large-scale freshwater
cycle of the Arctic,
J. Geophys. Res.,
111, C11010,
doi:10.1029/2005JC003424.
Changes and Attributions Working Group
CAWG
The Arctic Freshwater System: Changes and Impacts
Daniel M. White, Larry Hinzman, Lilian Alessa, John Cassano,
Molly Chambers, Kelly Falkner, Jennifer Francis, William J.
Gutowski, Jr., Marika Holland, R. Max Holmes, Henry
Huntington, Douglas Kane, Andrew Kliskey, Craig Lee, Jim
McClelland, Bruce Peterson, Scott Rupp, Fiamma Straneo,
Michael Steele, Rebecca Woodgate, Daqing Yang, Kenji
Yoshikawa, Tingjun Zhang
FWI Special Issue JGR Biogeosciences, 2007.
Land
Changes
Variable
stocks = bold
fluxes = italics
Period of
Recor
d
Current Trend and
Confidence
Observed
Permafrost
Storage
Active Layer
Thickness–
–Eurasia
–North America
1956-2000
1990-2002
+ / confident
no trend / confident
Soil Moisture
1960 –
2000
Lakes/Wetlands
River Q –
–Eurasian
– North American
– Hudson Bay
Atmos.
Changes
Ocean
Ch
an
ge
s
+/- / confident
+/- / confident
1936-2003
1975-2000
1964-2000
Ocean
Changes
Arctic Ocean
- / confident
North Atlantic /
Nordic Sea
+ / confident
Labrador Sea
+ / confident
Sea ice
–area
–volume
–first year
1978-pres.
1960s-pres.
1978-pres.
- / very confident
- / confident
+ / very confident
Bering Strait
1999- pres
Decreasing between
1999 and 2001
Increasing between
2001 and 2004
/confident
+ / confident
No trend/ confident
- / confident
Atmospheric
Moisture
Transport
+ / confident
Fram Strait outflow –
liquid
1979-2002
Atmospheric
Storage
+ / confident
Fram Strait outflow
–ice volume
–ice area
1979-2002
Precipitation
–over land N.A.
–over land Eurasia
–over ocean
- / confident
no trend / confident
no trend / uncertain
Canadian Arch.
outflow
–liquid
–ice
+ / confident
Precipitation –
Evaporation
–over land N.A.
–over land Eurasia
–over ocean
+ / confident
uncertain
+ / confident
Hudson Strait
unknown
Arctic Ocean
- / confident
North Atlantic /
Nordic Sea
+ / confident
+ / confident
The Intensifiers
An Intensified Arctic Water Cycle?
Trend Analysis of the Arctic System Freshwater Cycle:
Observations and Expectations
Central Question: How do trends drawn from observations compare
with model depictions of the Arctic water cycle?
Study Goals:
- examination of trends in freshwater fluxes
- benchmarks for expected changes from ensemble of GCM runs
- identification of potential mechanistic linkages
Water cycle trends can be expressed as:
- extreme event (floods, droughts, etc.)
- change in a stock (lakes, soil moisture)
- change in a flux (precipitation, runoff, ET)
Focus of
FWI “Intensifiers” Study
The Intensifiers
An Intensified Arctic Water Cycle?
Trend Analysis of the Arctic System Freshwater Cycle:
Observations and Expectations
Emphasis on pan-Arctic, long-term trends
Candidate Transports
- Land: flux convergence, precipitation, evapotranspiration, river discharge
- Ocean: flux convergence, precipitation, evaporation, Bering Strait inflow, export
through Canadian archipelago, Fram Strait liquid, Fram Strait ice
Candidate Storages
-Atmospheric over Land, subsurface over land, atmospheric over ocean, liquid and
solid in ocean
The Pan-Arctic Community-wide
Hydrological Analysis and Monitoring
Program (Arctic-CHAMP)
Resolving and quantifying the system
interconnections is the first step to prediction
Lessons from the US National Science Foundation
FreshWater Integration (FWI) Study
• Integration doesn’t just happen: Resources/thinking
needed to integrate otherwise independent studies
• Consensus-building: Needs coordinating structure w/
suitable balance of top-down & bottom-up approaches
• Shared sense of purpose: Clearly-stated, finite set of
science questions & policy themes
• Focal points/concrete targets: Formulate active
Working Groups with time tables for specific WG
products
Lessons from the US National Science Foundation
FreshWater Integration (FWI) Study
• Change continues to be a hallmark of the Arctic hydrologic
system
• Many of the changes are coincident with an accelerated
hydrologic cycle
• Manifested at numerous scales, from coordinated
hemispheric change to diversified local-scale change
• Tools (models and data sets) emerging rapidly for analyzing
behavior of the fully linked water system
• Limits arise from incomplete data, model components, and
approaches for linking these
WHERE DO WE GO
FROM HERE?
• SMO Support to FWI Investigations (2005-2007)
– Continuation of Current Functions
– New Requests by FWI ‘Rank-and-File’ Members
Key scientific questions:
• What is the role of the Arctic Hydrological Cycle
in the global climate system?
• What are the impacts of climate variability and
change on the Arctic Hydrological Cycle?
• What are the feedbacks of changes in the Arctic
Hydrological Cycle on the regional and global
climate?
IPY
Arctic-HYDRA Concept
•
•
•
•
Cluster of several hydrological projects within the IPY
Seed funding by the Nordic Council of Ministers,
Pending application for seed funding from IASC
Supported by WMO HWR, WMO CHy, WMO CBS,
WCRP/CliC
• Participation of all Arctic Countries
• Participation of all Arctic Hydrological Services
Components
Climate
Snow
Permafrost
Strategy
Arctic-HYDRA legacy:
• Near real time observations from a Pan-Arctic
hydrometric network.
• Integrated data from LTHO for process studies
QUESTIONS?
COMMENTS?
INPUTS?
IDEAS?