Structural Causes of South Korea's Economic Crisis

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Structural Causes of South

Korea’s Economic Crisis

Japan and South Korea

• Japan’s colonial rule (1910 - 1945)

– bitter memories

– normalization in relationships (1965)

• Japan’s economic model

– import substitution

– large interlocked corporations

– protection of domestic market

South Korea’s political legacy

• Strong presidency, center of state

– legacy of Park Chung Hee

– control over policy process

• Bureaucracy and business interests

• other political institutions underdeveloped

– legislature

– political parties

– interest groups

Park Chung Hee (1917 - 1979)

• Served in Japanese air force in WWII

• became a general in South Korean army

• led a bloodless military coup in 1961

• became president after 1963 election

• imposed martial law in 1972

– presidential decree

• assassinated in 1979 by the head of KCIA

Park’s strategies

• prosperity and independence by pursuit of a high-growth economic strategy

• Park took accepted economic theory

• Park’s observation of the wartime

Japanese economic model

• Park’s fervent nationalistic exhortations

• Korean people’s willingness to accept, obey authority, and to sacrifice

Chaebol

• Park nationalized all the Korean banks

• reinforced the system of chaebol

– a few specially selected large companies

– encouraged to tailor their growth and production targets to meet government objectives

– dependent on those state-owned banks for the credit they needed to operate and grow

Chaebol

• A conglomerate of many companies

• companies hold shares in each other

• concentration of national economy

• does not have own financial institution

• spreads across industries

• has centralized structure and control

• tends to be family-based

A strong state

• state controlled virtually all economic activities in South Korea

– government approved all bank loans

– granted licenses for virtually all businesses

– controlled many prices

• copied much of the Japanese model

– with a heavier emphasis on political and military influence in running the economy

Economic Planning Board

• Park’s personal involvement

• Elaborate economic plans

– five-year plan

– annual economic management plan

• added more responsibilities

– price policy

– fair trade administration

– reviews of projects

Hands of the new economy

• Ministry of Commerce and Industry

– later known as the Ministry of Trade and

Industry, or MTI

• Ministry of Finance

– nationalization of the banks

– centralization of the financial system

• day-to-day contact with businessmen who wanted approval for projects

Nationalism versus pragmatism

• International export market to make sure that companies were competitive

• industrial expansion needed to be financed by foreign bankers

• foreign companies were the best source of competitive technology

• normalized diplomatic relations with Japan in 1965

Export promotion

• The administration made exporting into a national campaign, almost a patriotic duty.

• export producers were given priority in investment decisions, credit allocations, and other benefits

• strategy of forcing domestic consumers to subsidize exports

• Korea Traders Association

Crisis in South Korea 1997

• chaebol crisis (bankruptcies)

• financial crisis

– credit rating downgraded

– exchange rate of won

– stock market

• economic crisis

– economic growth rate and GNP per capita

– unemployment rate

Chaebol’s advantages

• Governance structures of chaebol

– centralized control and management

– lack of monitor or sanction by shareholders

• Organizational advantages

– mobilization of resources for new businesses

– economy of scale through sharing resources

– safety-net for member companies in crisis

Chaebol’s advantages

• Park’s economic policy

– promotion of export-oriented industries

– promotion of heavy industry

– suppression of labor movements

– protection of domestic market

– allocation of resources to chaebol

• heyday of chaebol growth

– mid-1960s to mid-1980s

“Octopus companies”

• Chaebol’s diversification

– unrelated new industries

• strategic consideration

– reduction of financial risk

• environmental incentive

– “industrial vacuum”

Environmental changes

• Challenges since 1980s

• political regime shifts

• foreign pressure to open domestic market

• rise in labor cost

• competition from other Asian countries

• chaebol became multinationals

• industrial shift and competition

Democratization in ROK

• 1987 election, former general Roh Tae

Woo defeated opposition leaders Kim Dae

Jung and Kim Young Sam

• 1987, Declaration of Political Reforms

• 1988 election, opposition parties won majority in National Assembly

• Kim Young Sam won presidential election in 1992 (1st elected civilian president)

Regime shift

• Democratization

• deregulation

– land use (1990)

– import liberalization (1992)

– open stock market to foreigners (1992)

– open domestic capital market (1994)

– deregulate loan financing in foreign market

(1994)

Labor cost

Chaebol responses

• Unrelated diversification in new industries

– diversion of resources

• from technological innovation

– demand for domestic financial resources

• accumulated bank loans

– demand for foreign financial resources

• opening of the domestic financial market

• centralized control and management

Negative consequences

• Chaebol’s expansion

– lack of transparency and accountability

• domestic loans

– government pressure on banks

• foreign loans

– government opened capital market yet controlled exchange rate

Regime shift continued

• President Kim

Dae Jung (1998 -

2003)

• free market

– minimizing government intervention

– deregulation

IMF conditionality

• borrower government makes commitments on economic and financial policies

• Most loans feature phased disbursements

– prior actions

• before approval and initial disbursement

– performance criteria

• quantitative and structural

• condition for agreed credit to be disbursed

– program review

Restructure the financial sector

• Troubled banks

– bankrupt

– sold to foreign banks

– merged

• Financial Supervisory Board

– power to replace top managers of banks

– resurrection of Park’s policies?

Improve chaebol finance

• reduce debt-capital ratio

– sale of assets

– foreign investors

• prohibit cross-investment

• prohibit internal trading

• consolidated financial statements

Chaebol reforms

• Transform governance structure

• weaken the centralized control and management in chaebol

– owner became formal CEO

• full legal responsibilities

– outside board members

– legal right for minority shareholders

• restrict unrelated diversification

Dilemmas for government

• Government intervention to establish free market economy?

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