Volumetrics
Nexus Workgroup
January 2016
1
Action
 Action 1202: Volumetrics - Xoserve to consider the peaks
[within the DECC roll out curve] and demonstrate in real
terms what this may look like across the month.
 Assess potential peak day meter reading volumes considering the
available Smart Roll Out Figures
 In order to do so, need to define:
 Smart Roll Out – baseline figures
 Peak Volumes
 This will depend upon behaviours which have to be tested
Smart Roll Out Figures
Source: Steve Mulinganie
Smart Roll Out – interpretation
 What this looks like for gas meters:
Cumulative Gas Smart Roll Out
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
Cumulative
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
to June 2015 remainder of
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Assumptions
 The following assumptions were used to get to this position:
Assumptions:
Figures includes iGT Meter Points - estimated at iGT+DN is:
24,000,000
Profile doesn't describe actual to June 2015 - assumed 4M (G&E)
Total described in roll out
4,000,000
48,500,000
52,500,000
TOTAL
% of Roll Out assumed to be gas
46%
 Profile assumed in the following way:
to June 2015
remainder of
2015
Profile:
4,000,000
1,000,000
3,750,000
8,500,000
14,000,000
13,000,000
8,250,000
0
52,500,000
Gas profile:
2,000,000
457,143
1,714,286
3,885,714
6,400,000
5,942,857
3,771,429
0
24,171,429
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Note: actuals recorded at Sept 15 < stated for June 2015
Peak Reading Volumes against Smart Roll Out
 Key factors to consider:
 Product utilisation
 Profile of submission
Process Specific Assumptions
 Class take-up
 To help in developing the requirement, and therefore the assumed Class takeup volumes, the overall meter point count was split into 3 groupings based on
their AQ band:
 AQ Group 1: DM Mandatory
 AQ Group 2: Meter Points with an AQ greater than 732,000 kWh and less than
58,600,000 kWh
 AQ Group 3: Meter Points with an AQ less than 732,000 kWh
 Assumed that, with the exception of Class 1, Class utilisation profile will
fluctuate and will not remain static
 For Go Live assumed that the majority (around 75%) of smart meter sites in
AQ Group 3 will remain in Class 4 with a small take-up in Class 2 & 3
 Take-up of Class 3 for AQ Group 3 meter points as smart meters are installed
 All dumb meter sites will remain in Class 4, quarterly read
15_07
Process Specific Assumptions
 Meter Read submissions
 Daily reads for Class 1 & 2 meter points
 For planning its been assumed that all Class 3 reads will be submitted
on a monthly basis with 30 reads per batch
 Class 3 reads will be submitted over a 5 day period to allow for the
batch of readings to be submitted within the defined timescales
 Class 4 reads from smart meters will be submitted monthly
 Provision made for the submission of a weekly read
 Class 4 reads from dumb meters will be submitted quarterly
 Class 4 reads will be submitted over a 20 day period, not smoothed
across the whole month, allowing for a higher average daily volume
15_07
Process Specific Assumptions
 Meter Read submissions
 Daily reads for Class 1 & 2 meter points
 For planning its been assumed that all Class 3 reads will be submitted
on a monthly basis with 30 reads per batch
 Class 3 reads will be submitted over a 5 day period to allow for the
batch of readings to be submitted within the defined timescales
 Class 4 reads from smart meters will be submitted monthly
 Provision made for the submission of a weekly read
 Class 4 reads from dumb meters will be submitted quarterly
 Class 4 reads will be submitted over a 20 day period, not smoothed
across the whole month, allowing for a higher average daily volume
15_07
Planned Approach
 Action 1202: Volumetrics – Xoserve to compare the baseline
position and what timescales would be required to advance
this.
Planned Approach
 Propose to provide assumed volumetrics
 Maximum Design Volumes
 Assumed volumes against which UK Link has been designed
 Expected Usage Volumes
 Peak transaction rates for key input transactions
15_10
Why?
 Figures will provide:
 The above are necessary to ensure that Users of the system
understand capacity
 Better sense of capacity ownership within User / Transporter
community
 What Users can do to maximise existing volumes?
 Volumes are susceptible to fluctuation as a result of User decisions
 E.g. and particularly ‘Class’ products
 Ability to amend where the future is not perfect
 Smart Roll Out
 Others???
 Assists in defining a process for one off breaches
 E.g. mass updates of specific flows
15_10
How do we keep ahead of the curve?
 Will require an industry process to assess this
 Envisaged in UK Link Manual
 Users will be required to provide forecast of usage of UK Link
 12 month forecast required at 6 monthly intervals
 UK Link Committee – mandated responses from portfolio shippers greater
than [100,000] meter points / assume roll forward?
15_10
14
Any Questions?
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