The future of refrigerants
Jim Wolf
Global Policy Associates
May 2015
Overview

Current and future environmental policy

Refrigerant comparisons

Future refrigerants
Montreal Protocol
Adopted in Montreal on September 16, 1987
Objective “To control and eventually eliminate …
OZONE-DEPLETING
substances .”
Among 6 major chemicals, CFC and HCFC refrigerants
were classified as an Ozone Depleting substances, and subject to phase outs.
Kyoto Protocol
 December 1997, Kyoto Japan, Conference of Parties
 Kyoto Protocol focus is on Global
 Among 6 major chemicals, HFC
Warming.
refrigerants
were classified as Global Warming, or Greenhouse Gases,
and subject to restrictions.
Efficiency Drives Environmental Impact
Important Environmental Policy

Montreal Protocol (UNEP)

Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC)

Country Policies and Regulations
Montreal Protocol: HCFC Phase out Dates
Copenhagen - 1992
Developed Countries,
except EU 27
1996
2004
2010
2015
2020
2020
I
2030
Freeze quantities
35% reduction
65% reduction
90% reduction
99.5% reduction
remaining 0.5% is for
service only
Total phase out
2016 Freeze quantities at
2015 levels
Developing Countries
No interim step down
2040 Total phase out
European Union
Montreal - September 2007
1996
2004
2010
2015
2020
2020
I
2030
Freeze quantities
35% reduction
75% reduction
90% reduction
99.5% reduction
remaining 0.5% is for
service only
Total phase out
2013 Freeze quantities
Baseline set at average of
2009/2010 production levels
2015
2020
2025
2030
2030
I
2040
10% reduction
35% reduction
67.5% reduction
97.5% reduction
Remaining 2.5% is for
service only
Total phase out
In the EU new HCFC products can no longer be delivered
Export of HCFC products allowed till December 2009
Jan.2010: Ban on refilling existing products with virgin HCFC
Jan.2015: Ban on refilling existing products with recycled HCFC
Note: Most recent Montreal Protocol meeting took place in Montreal, September 2007
US EPA Accelerated Phase-out Rule
(Unchanged)
CFCs
1996
All CFCs 0 % (Production)
HCFCs
1996
Cap at 2.8% (3.1%) of 1989
Consumption of CFCs plus HCFCs
2003
HCFC-141b
0 % (Production)
2010
HCFC-142b
(No New Product Use)
HCFC-22
(No New Product Use)
HCFC-22
0 % (Production)
HCFC-142b
0 % (Production)
HCFC-123
(No New Product Use)
HCFC-124
(No New Product Use)
All HCFCs
0 % (Production)
2020
2030
Million Kilograms CFC-11 Equivalent
ODP Weighted U.S. HCFC Use and HCFC Cap
15
HCFC Production Cap
Actual HCFC usage
Actual R-123 usage
65% - 2004
10
35% - 2010
5
Sep07 MP
Change
25%
Expected new
HCFC demand1
10% - 2015
0.5% - 2020
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
1http://epa.gov/ozone/title6/phaseout/ServicingNeedsRevisedDraftReport_September.2006.pdf
2025
2030
Will There Be Enough R123
2020-2030- 0.5% of 1989 level of “equivalent” R-11
Assumptions:
Chillers in US with R-123 (50,000 chillers)
Average chiller size: 500 tons
Refrigerant charge: 2 lbs/ton (1.7)
Average charge/chiller: 1000 lbs
0.5% leakage rate/yr
(50,000 chillers) x (1000 lbs/chiller) x (0.5% leakage rate/year) = 250,000 lbs/yr
0.5% cap from 1989 levels equates to 12,100,000 lbs/year of R-123
Almost 50 times the needed volume can be produced!
Will R-123 continue to be manufactured ?

R-123 is used as a feedstock to produce R-125

R-125 is 50% of the blend that makes R-410A ( replacement for
R-22)

R-125 is 25% of the blend that makes R-407C
Climate change policy

Kyoto Protocol created in 1997

European Union CO2 cap & trade program, and HFC
regulation enacted in 2005

Activity in 2015

Climate Change negotiations for 2015 agreement

Cap & trade programs/legislation

Montreal Protocol proposals on HFC phase down

EU regulation on HFCs

U.S. HFC regulation

Canadian regulation consultation
U.S. Senate Climate Change Legislation


S. 2191 – Lieberman – Warner bill (Cap and Trade Program)

Caps greenhouse gas emissions

Reduces greenhouse gas emissions
Greenhouse gas coverage

Carbon dioxide

Methane

Nitrous oxide

Sulfur hexafluoride

Perfluorocarbons

Hydrofluorocarbons, HFCs (Separate basket)
- Cap set in 2012
-70% reduction by 2037
HFC Cap vs Business as Usual Demand
HFC Allowed Cap
GWP weighted CO2 Eq
400
Million Tonnes CO2 Eq
350
Low-GWP solutions needed
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
H.R. – 2454, Waxman – Markey legislation
- Establishes baseline of average of 2004, 2005,
and 2006 consumption of HFCs
- Phase down of production of HFCs:
. 12.5% reduction in 2013
. 22.5% reduction by 2017
. 33% reduction by 2020
. 54% reduction by 2025
. 70% reduction by 2029
. 85% reduction by 2033
- Passed House (6/26/09) and sent to Senate
Kerry - Lieberman legislation (American Power Act)
- Establishes baseline of average of 2004, 2005,
and 2006 consumption of HFCs
- Phase down of production of HFCs:
. 12.5% reduction in 2013
. 22.5% reduction by 2017
. 33% reduction by 2020
. 54% reduction by 2025
. 70% reduction by 2029
. 85% reduction by 2033
HFC PHASE DOWN PROPOSAL

Submitted in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 & 2015

Proposal by Canada, U.S., and Mexico to transfer
HFC controls to Montreal Protocol

Baseline of average of 2011 – 2013 consumption
and production of HFCs + 50% of HCFCs

Phase down of production/consumption of HFCs
in Developed Countries:
- 10% by 2019 ; 35% by 2024; 70% by 2030;
85% by 2036
Proposals submitted by Micronesia from 2010 –2015
New proposals submitted by India and EU in 2015
Amendment Proposals to Montreal Protocol

U.S., Canada, & Mexico:
Phasedown: 2019 – 90%, 2024 – 65%, 2030 – 30%; 2036 – 15%
.
EU:
Phasedown: 2019 – 85%, 2023 – 60%, 2028 – 30%; 2034 – 15%
. India:
Phasedown: 2018 – 90%, 2023 - 65%, 2029 – 30%; 2035 – 15%
. Micronesia:
Phasedown: 2017 – 85%, 2021 – 65%, 2025 – 45%, 2029 –
25%; 2033 – 10%
HFC PHASEOUT LAWS

Switzerland
Air conditioners HFC ban - 2005

Denmark
GENERAL HFC ban - 2006
Cooling plants, heat pumps & air conditioning
Plant HFC ban - 2007

Austria
Air conditioning and Mobile refrigeration HFC ban
2008
European Union - HFC Regulations
Stationary air conditioning & refrigeration - (2005)
- Containment and recovery of HFCs
- Training and Certification of technicians
Automobile HFC-134a Ban – (2005)
- No new vehicles with HFCs - GWP greater than 150 in 2011
- No servicing in 2019
EU Regulation on HFCs
EU Regulation on HFCs –
Adopted April 2014
Phase down schedule for HFCs from baseline of
the average from 2008 to 2011:
Years
Quantity Allowed
2015
100%
2016-17
93
2018-20
63
2021- 23
45
2024-26
31
2027-29
24
2030
21
1st. Petition to remove HFC-134a from SNAP List

NRDC, IGSD, and EIA

Petition filed with EPA Administrator - May 7, 2010

Primary request for removal of HFC-134a for auto

Secondary request for removal of HFC-134a for
aerosols, fire suppression, foam blowing agents,
refrigeration, and air conditioning sector

Regulation proposed to de-list HFC-134a use in
autos (2022) and insulation (2017)
2nd. Petition to remove HFC-134a from SNAP List

IEA petitioned EPA on April 26, 2012
- Remove HFC-134a and blends for any ODS
in non-essential uses
- Remove HFC-134a and blends for every enduse where more benign alternatives are available

NRDC petitioned EPA on April 27, 2012
- Remove HFC-134a for household and retail
food refrigerators & freezers
3rd. Petition expected to remove HFC-134a from
chillers
CAFE Standard for cars and light trucks

National Highway Traffic Safety – DOT

Final rule published May 7, 2010

Requires average 34.1 mpg by 2016

Provides 6 mpg credit for use of non-HFC (134a)
air conditioning system
Federal Acquisition Regulation – Proposed Rule – 5/11/15

Affects DOD, GSA, and NASA purchases

Adds restriction on procurement of products
containing high GWPs

Requires agencies to procure, when feasible,
alternatives to high GWP HFCs (R-134a, R-410a,
R-407C) and to non-ODP refrigerants used in air
conditioners.

Limits purchase of equipment containing HFCs and/or
HCFCs
Environment Canada – Consultation Meetings

Consultation meetings – March 2015

Residential air conditioning: no manufacture or
import of equipment with HFCs or HFC blends
with GWP above 750.

Commercial and Industrial air conditioning: no
manufacture or import of equipment with HFCs or
HFC blends with GWP above 750.
Rio+20
UN Conference on Sustainable Development

Conference concluded on June 22, 2012

Agreement document – “The Future We Want”

HFC provision:
“We support a gradual phase-down in the
consumption and production of HFCs.”
Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP)
Global Warming Potential (GWP)
1
12000
0.9
10000
0.7
GWP (CO 2= 1.0)
ODP (R-11=1.0)
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
8000
6000
4000
2000
0.1
0
0
CFC-11
CFC-12
HCFC-22 HCFC-123 HFC-134a
HFC410A
HFC407C
CFC-11
HFC-245fa
CFC-12
HCFC-22 HCFC-123 HFC-134a
HFC410A
HFC407C
HFC-245fa
HFC407C
HFC-245fa
Atmospheric Life (Years)
Efficiency for Chillers (COP)
100
6.8
80
6.6
Years
COP
6.4
6.2
60
40
6
5.8
20
5.6
0
5.4
CFC-11
CFC-12
HCFC-22 HCFC-123 HFC-134a
HFC410A
HFC407C
HFC-245fa
CFC-11
CFC-12
HCFC-22 HCFC-123 HFC-134a
HFC410A
Ozone Depletion Potential & Global Warming - Balancing ODP vs GWP
CFC-11
12
113
114
HCFC-22
123
141b
142b
HFC-32
125
134a
143a
152a
227ea
236fa
245fa
404A
407C
410A
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
ODP (relative to R-11)
0.0
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
GWP (relative to CO2)
J. M. Calm and G. C. Hourahan, “Refrigerant Data Summary,” Engineered Systems, 18(11):74-88, November
2001 (based on 1998 WMO and 2001 IPCC assessments). © JMC 2001
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY INFORMATION OF TRANE
Natural Refrigerant Considerations
CO2
Low Temp/Refrigeration/Automotive
Very low efficiency in HVAC applications
CO2 has half the efficiency of R-22 and R410A
Hydrocarbons Stationary Air Conditioning
Safety issues on application, service, recovery
Ammonia
Low Temp/Process Chiller Applications
Limited opportunities for safe applications
Safety and environmental issues, service, recovery
Water
Stationary Air Conditioning
Low efficiency in normal HVAC applications
Options For HVAC Refrigerants
“Natural” Refrigerants
Fluorocarbons
Ozone Depleters
(Montreal Protocol)
Class 1
High ODP
CFC’s
GWP
ODP
GWP
ODP
GWP
ODP
GWP
ODP
ODP
GWP
R-11
R-12
R113
R-500
Non- Ozone Depleters
(Kyoto Protocol)
Class 2
Low ODP
HCFC’s
GWP
ODP
ODP
R-22
R-123
-ODP Concerns
-GWP Concerns
- Flammable
Higher GWP
R-134a
GWP
R-410A
GWP
R-407C
GWP
Lower GWP
R-32
R-152a
Propane
Butane
CO2
Ammonia
Water
-Toxicity Concerns
-Efficiency Concerns
-Cost Concerns
© 2008 Trane, a business of Ingersoll Rand.
How is the industry responding?


Refrigerant producers are developing new refrigerants:

Near zero ODP, very low GWP, energy efficient & safe

Commercial availability began in 2015
Equipment manufacturers are analyzing new refrigerants:

Energy efficient, safe & low emissions

Equipment availability by 2015 - 2022
Projected Replacements
High Pressure (R-22/R-410a)
R-32
•
(GWP=685/716)
2L flammable
R-32 blends (GWP= 400/600)
.
2L flammable
Medium Pressure (R-134a)
R-1234yf (GWP<10) - Automobile
•
Expensive, significant efficiency loss
•
2L flammable
R-1234ze (GWP<10) - Chillers
•
Moderate price
•
2L flammable
Blends (GWP= 500/650) – non flammable
Low Pressure
,
(R-123)
R-1233 zd(E) (GWP<10) - Chillers
© 2008 Trane, a business of Ingersoll Rand.
.
Moderate price
.
Non-flammable
Blends (GWP= 170/200) – non flammable
Refrigerant Safety Classifications
ASHRAE 34 & Proposed ISO 817
•
Flammability
–
–
–
–
Class 1, non-flammable most refrigerants used today, like R-22, R-134a, R123, 410a, 407C
Class 2L, new class slightly flammable refrigerants <10 cm/sec burning velocity, most new HFO’s, R32
Class 2, more flammable, R152
Class 3, explosive, like propane
2L class key to use of low GWP HFOs
OLD
1st. Generation
CFC-11
HCFC-123
2nd. Generation
R-1233zd(E)
Blends
CFC-12
HFC-134a
R-1234yf (auto)
R- 1234ze (chiller)
Blends (chiller)
HCFC-22
HFC- 410a
HFC - 32 or Blends
HFC – 407C HFC – 32 or Blends
The Future of HCFCs and HFCs:

R-22, R-123, R-134a, R-410a, and 407C will be available for
servicing existing equipment

Cost of current refrigerants will increase

Carbon tax factor: R-22 (1800) vs. R-410a (2000); R-123 (77)
vs. R-134a (1430)

New refrigerants will cost 4 to 10 times more than HFCs