TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED SYSTEM OF TOURISM STATISTICS Keynote Address IBGE Second National Meeting of Producers and Users of Social Economical and Territorial Information Prepared by: Scott M. Meis, UNWTO Consultant Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 25 August, 2006 Introduction • Thank you − Eduardo, for the invitation − Roberto, for the hospitality & advice − Neiva, for the help − Pepe – a mentor, I keep following in his footsteps…with this topics as with others! • Initial challenge… intimidating! • Realization: Statistics systems development and integration have been the focus of my “whole career”! Overview Focus: Identify, specify & explain the case for, and concepts, of a “System of Tourism Statistics” (STS), and An “Integrated” system (ISTS) Purpose: Specify the meaning and significance of “integration” for STS Objectives: Demonstrate contributions of TSA to ISTS Identify the benefits of ISTS Overview Rationale Key Concepts Information/data Needs Users & Uses Data Sources Organizing the Data: TSA Role Illustrative Examples Management, Collaboration & Coordination Conclusions Rationale: Why Systems of Tourism WHAT ARE THEStatistics TOOLS? & Research? JUSTIFICATIONS FOR STATE TOURISM INTERVENTION Welfare economics Assumptions: •Pereto efficiency •Perfect competition •Market failure Approaches: •Correct market failure by: −external effects − production of public goods − information deficits Transaction costs New Growth theory Assumptions: Assumptions: •Growth endogenous •High transaction to economic systems costs for tourism SMEs •Resulting supply shortages Approaches: •Strengthening human Approaches: resources by education •Reduction of & training transaction costs •Collaborative promotion • Strengthening research & development •Uncertainty reduction Source: Adapted from Smeral & Prilisauer, 2005 Social integration Assumptions: •Travel promotes interpersonal growth, knowledge & understanding Approaches: •Support domestic travel of youth • Support cultural education potential of 2 way international travel Rationale: Why State Systems of Tourism Statistics & Research? JUSTIFICATIONS FOR STATE TOURISM INTERVENTION • Tourism promotion/development provides: Stimulating effects of tourism marketing e.g. evidence of minor positive elasticities of relating to foreign tourism demand Above average high value added effects High general employment & growth effects Relative locational security (i.e.“comparative advantage”) A significant factor in some economies, ensuring peoples livelihood and means of subsistence --especially SMEs in rural areas Source: Smeral, 2006 Rationale: What is Tourism Anyway? CHARACTERISTIC FEATURES OF TOURISM • A social domain – a particular human activity • Defined as a demand-side phenomenon • Temporary mobility of people from usual place of residence to temporary destinations • Particular subset of travelers called “ visitors” • An amalgam of industries providing commodities and services directly to the visitor • Related expenditures create economic significance • Localization of impacts • A field of study • A collection of knowledge Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989 Rationale: What is Tourism Anyway? DEFINITION & SCOPE OF TOURISM DEMAND WTO and UN definitions (developed at Ottawa Conference on Tourism Statistics, Canada (1991)): “the activities of persons traveling to and staying in places outside their usual environment for no more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes” Includes: Day trips (excursions) plus “tourist trips” (1+ nights) Travel to visit friends & relatives Travel for business Travel for personal reason (education LT 1yr, religious & health) Excludes: Commuting to/from work Study or job relocation Diplomats or armed forces on assignment Source: Adapted from WTO, 1993 Rationale: What is Tourism Anyway? FORMS OF TOURISM • Inbound tourism: non-residences visiting a given country/state (exports) • Outbound tourism: residence visiting in another country/state (imports) • Domestic tourism: residence visiting within their own country/state • Internal tourism: domestic + inbound • National tourism: domestic + outbound • International tourism: inbound + outbound Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989 Rationale: How much is that? 230+ MILLION TRIPS 7+ X CANADIAN POPULATION (30 MILLION) Total tourism ** 233.5 million person-trips (2004) 127.3 million tourist* person-trips (2004) Domestic tourism ** 88.7 million overnight person-trips* 86.4 million same day Outbound tourism US: 13.8 million person-trips * Overseas: 5.7 million person-trips * Inbound Tourism US: 15.0 million overnight person-trips* 19.6 million same day Overseas: 4.1 million overnight person-trips* 0.2 million same day * Tourist = 1+nights ** Not comparable with 2001 Previous (Pre-1989)Views of Tourism Data NO measures of the core economic phenomena: • Tourism consumption • Tourism products • Tourism industries NO credible measures of the economic role and significance of tourism in the national economy NO core source of data on articulation of tourism markets & industries NO overview the whole of tourism A dispersed and disorganized collection of information fragments “The whole is less than the sum of its parts” Martin Wilke,1985 NO “system” at all! Source: NTFTD, 1989 What is the System of Tourism Statistics? SYSTEM OF TOURISM STATISTICS (STS) 1st reference --Tourism Satellite Account (TSA): Recommended Methodological Framework (1993) Introduction: beyond being a new statistical instrument, the TSA must be analyzed as a as a ‘building process to guide countries in the development of their own system of tourism statistics, the main objective being the completion of the TSA, which could be viewed as the synthesis of the system’. “That part of the National Statistical System whose aim is to provide the user with reliable, consistent and appropriate statistical information on the socio-economic structure and developments of the tourism phenomenon and which can, in turn be integrated with all the other economic and social statistics at different territorial levels (state, infrastate, and international).” Source: Massieu, 2001 Concepts: TS History TOURISM STATISTICS: OTHER “SYSTEMATIC” SEMINAL REFERENCES • “Definition of ‘international tourist’ for statistical purposes”, Council of the League of Nations, 1937 • Revised definition of ‘international tourist’ and concept of ‘international visitor’, International Union of Travel Organizations, 1950, 1953 • Recommended definition for the terms “visitor, tourist and excursionist”, IUOTO, 1963 • “Provisional Guidelines on Statistics for International Tourism”, United Nations Statistical Commission, 1976 • “Le compte satellte du tourisme: presentation des cadres comtables et de la premiere estimations de la defense interieure de tourisme”, Ministere du Commerce, de l’ Artisanat ed du Tourisme, 1979 • “Determination of the importance of tourism as an economic activity within the framework of the national accounting system”, WTO , 1983 • “Le Compte Satellite du Tourisme”, CREDOC, INSEE , 1983 • “Tourism and Economics: the Inclusion of Tourism in Standard Economic Statistics”, OECD, 1984 Concepts: TS History TOURISM STATISTICS: OTHER “SYSTEMATIC” REFERENCES (Cont’d.) • “ Towards A Tourism Research and Statistics System”, Gordon Taylor, Tourism Canada, 1984 • “Tourism Statistics Program”, Shaila Nijhowne, Statistics Canada, 1985 • “Working Paper #2: Current Data Bases”, Stephen Smith, NTFTD, Statistics Canada, 1985 • “ Working Paper #3: A Satellite Account for Tourism”, Claude Simard & Janet Swinamer, NTFD, Statistics Canada, 1985 • “Working Paper #5: Characterizing Tourism Demand Standard Definitions and Classification”, Peter Fairchild, NTFD, Statistics Canada, 1985 • “Working Paper #6: A Report on the Prospects for Establishing Local Area Tourism Data Bases in Canada”, Frank Hart, NTFD, Statistics Canada, 1985 • Working Paper #4: A Proposed Integrated Framework for the Demand-side Tourism Data Collection in Canada, Brent Ritchie, NTFD, Statistics Canada, 1985 • National Task Force on Tourism Data: Final Report, Statistics Canada, 1989 Concepts: TS History TOURISM STATISTICS: OTHER “SYSTEMATIC” REFERENCES (Cont’d.) • “A Proposal for a Tourism Satelite Account and Information System for Tourism”, Jocelyn Lapierre, Stewart Wells, Kishori Lal, Kathleen Campbell & John Joisce, 1991 • WTO-UN Recommendations on Tourism Statistics , UN- WTOOECD, 1993 • Technical Manual #2: The Collection of Tourism Expenditure Statistics” WTO, 1995 • “System of Statistical Indicators for Analysing the Economy of Tourism (SINTUR): Progrramme of work for the period 19982000”, Working Document No. 5, Instituto de Estudios Turisticos, 1997 • “A Satellite Account for Tourism (4th Draft)”, WTO, 1998 • “A Tourism Satellite Account for OECD Countries (Draft)”, OECD, 1998“A Research and Development Program for Improved Tourism Industry Decision Making: Technical Paper, Canadian Tourism Commission, 1999 • Les Comptes Satellites du Tourisme: Une proposition de l’Organization mondiale du tourisme pour integrer l’analyze du tourisme dans le cadre de la Cmpatabilite’ Nationale”, Marion Libreros, 2000 Concepts: STS Scope STS SCOPE AND COVERAGE • A series of statistical functions relating to tourism including: Organization and legal structure of the institutional units that produce tourism statistics (mostly public but some significant private and micro levels) Administrative mechanisms and (legally) established links between these and a central unit (if one exists) Statutory and non-statutory nature of certain statistical sources and administrative controls which generate information that is liable to used for statistical purposes, (border controls, sales taxes, registers) Human and material resources assigned to tasks in these producing units • Source: Massieu, 2001 Concepts: STS Structure STS STRUCTURE • Elements: To fulfill its aims (and as subset of the NSS) STS must include: Statistical Sources: Travel surveys, household resident surveys, business data, systemic syntheses (IO, BOP, SNA), administrative data, etc. Methodological references: Concepts, classifications, methods and procedures Instrumental means available: Collection, storage, dissemination and application of the obtained data Data bases of detailed final results, micro-data files, summary results Publications (paper & electronic information products) Analytical applications and transformations: impact models, econometric forecasts, etc. Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001 Concepts: STS Structure STS STRUCTURE (Cont’d.) • Focus: Marketing aspects of tourism Social aspects of tourism Economic aspect of tourism Financial aspects of tourism Operating aspects of tourism Environmental aspects of tourism Legal aspects of tourism Political aspects of tourism Others Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001 Concepts: STS STS FUNCTIONAL REQUIREMENTS • Reconciliation: Controlling & ensuring that a particular process meets its assigned purpose and user requirements Controlling consistency/harmonization of statistical information systems at state/,infra-state and international levels • Coordination: Balancing tourism statistical/research programmes in terms of ongoing activities, projects and financial and human resources • Integration: Controlling & ensuring the connection and assembly of the different statistical products Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001 and Quevedo, 1990 Concepts: Integration INTEGRATION ELEMENTS • Instrumental Elements: National and international tourism concepts, definitions, classifications, and standards for tourism • Integrated Statistical Information Systems: Tourism Satellite Account Information Systems Tourism Marketing Research & Information Systems Systems of National Accounts Socio-demographic Information Systems Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001 and Quevedo, 1990 Concepts: Integration INTEGRATION SIGNIFICANCE • Level of integrated system development a function of number, type and complexity of functions • Integrated systems require consistency, rigour in preparation of basic tourism statistics • Integrated systems provide the conceptual framework required to designte instrumental elements: concepts, defintions, classifications & standars • Integrated systems provided the key leverage point for statistical work in all areas Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001 and Quevedo, 1990 What kinds of data relate to tourism? DATA NEEDS FOR STS Overall general need: to improve knowledge of tourism reality Specific purposes: Aid improved public & private decision industry related decision making relating to: • Advocacy, planning and public awareness • Marketing • Investment, operations and management • Manpower, education and training Facilitate international comparisons for regulatory and other policy, planning and management purposes To facilitate pure and applied research Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001 and NTFD, 1989 What kinds of data relate to tourism? TOURISM DATA NEEDS National “macro” level data to establish the economic and social significance of tourism Macro regional data as well to assess and assist regional development policies National data relating to specific policy developments, eg. taxes, exchange rate fluctuations on tourism business National data relating to sector & industry strategic plans “Micro” data on specific market places & operations of firms Local data on the strength of attractions and local tourism activities at specific destinations Source: NTFTD, 1989 What kinds of data relate to tourism? DATA TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS Credibility, reliability and validity in representing claimed aspects of tourism reality Timeliness and relevance if intended to aid decision making Produced on a regular basis Consistent & comparable over time, between regions & regions, & with other fields of economic & social activity (i.e. concepts, definitions, classifications, units of analysis, reference populations) Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989 and Massieu, 2001 What kinds of data relate to tourism? DATA TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS (Cont’d.) Sufficient breadth and depth of subject matter to meet most decision-makers’ requirements Internally consistent with recognized economic & socal frameworks Accessibility, transparency and affordability Associated communications and education Objective and scientific (i.e. reproducible) Minimal duplication Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989 and Massieu, 2001 What tourism data sources are there? DATA SOURCES Multiple, diverse sources – Canada found 275 different Majority in public sector central statistics agencies with national international or regional scope Primarily individual resident and visitor surveys Also business surveys of operating characteristics of tourism sector firms (both public & private) Provincial/state “exit” surveys & specialized surveys of events & attractions Source: NTFTD, 1989 What tourism data sources are there? DATA SOURCES (Cont’d.) Administrative data (both public & private) “Micro” data on specific market places & operations of firms Local data on the strength of attractions and local tourism activities at specific destinations Private sector “micro” data of operating characteristics firms, establishments, branches, products, & market segments Source: NTFTD, 1989 TSA Defines Scope of Tourism Industry TSA defines the scope of the tourism sector (industries) to include the direct supply of goods and services to facilitate business, pleasure and leisure activities away from the home environment TSA defines the core supply-side facets of tourism: • Tourism expenditures • Tourism products • Tourism industries • Tourism demand • Tourism GDP • Tourism Employment • Tourism enterprises TSA provides credible aggregate measures of the role and significance of tourism in the national economy in terms of total demand, Tourism GDP and employment TSA provides a core source of data on the articulation of tourism industries with markets TSA provides tourism interests with a self-view Source: NTFTD, 1989 The TSA & Integration TSA CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTEGRATING TOURISM STATISTICS A conceptual framework An information system linking source and derivative databases A source of consistency A tool for reconciliation A tool for comparisons A tool for coordination and collaboration A template for discovery Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989 TSA: Data Integration Link to SNA/I-O Canadian System of National Accounts Input/Output Tables Tourism Tourism Tourism Satellite Account Source: NTFTD, 1989 Monetary Values CTSA: Data Organization Multi-layered Vision Analytical Modules Capital Module Data Characterization Data Core Account Source: NTFTD, 1989 TSA Information System Vision Transportation Surveys Accommodation Survey Input Output System System of National Accounts Canadian Travel Survey Food and Beverage Survey Recreation Surveys Canadian Tourism Satellite Account International Travel Survey 3 Demand Surveys Travel Arrangement Services Survey 13 Supply Surveys Survey of Household Spending Gov’t. Support Planning & Analysis Source: NTFTD, 1989 Data Organization: Demand-Supply Link Linkage Between Commodities & Industries Demand is estimated for groups of goods and services (commodities) GDP and employment, however, must be calculated by industry Supply can be calculated either for groups of commodities or by industry/sub-industry categories, establishing the link between demand and GDP The link is a demand/supply ratio for each commodity This ratio is then applied to each industry category to calculate GDP and employment in the industry space Source: NTFTD, 1989 TSA: Integration & 1 Way Reconciliation Tax information Canadian Tourism Satellite Account Other Information Reconciliation Process Such as Manufacturing data International Trade data Labour Force Survey Supply Surveys Demand Surveys All Other Areas of System of National Accounts Input Output System System of National Accounts Business information Such as Profits, capital investment, revenues, expenses Survey of Employment, Payroll and Hours TSA: Integration & 1 Way Reconciliation Balance supply & demand Commodities expenditures VS industry revenues Tourism demand VS supply by commodity Tourism inputs VS outputs by industry Gross outputs VS all inputs Iterative interactive process STS-TSA: Integration Examples ILLUSTRATIONS Comparable Key Aggregates Comparable Detailed Aggregates Economic Impact Models Economic Indicators Characteristics of the Industry Government Revenues Forecasts Media analysis templates STS-TSA: Key Aggregate Comparisons VIEW OF MAJOR EXPENDITURE FLOWS 2000 % Change 2000/1998 Tourism Spending $ 53.7 B +17% Foreign Spending (Exports) $17.8 B +15% Canadian Spending $ 35.3 B +18% Canadian Spending Abroad (Imports) $21.0 B +18% Travel Account Deficit $ 3.1 B 0.0 STS-TSA: Key Aggregate Comparisons TOURISM GDP SHARES WITHIN SECTOR Other Industries 19% Other tourism services 10% Food & beverage 23% Air transportation 24% Other transportation 8% Accommodation 16% •Tourism GDP: $ 20.4 Billion (2000) •Air transportation = most value added TSS-TSA: Key Aggregate Comparisons-PTTSA 1996 Tourism GDP / Employment in tourism / total GDP total employment (percentage) Yukon British Columbia Prince Édward Isle. Nova Scotia Newfoundland/Labrador Manitoba Canada, 1996 Québec Alberta Ontario NWTerritoires/Nunavut New Brunswick Saskatchewan 4.8 3.5 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 8.1 4.7 4.6 4.1 3.9 3.2 3.7 3.3 3.9 3.5 4.3 3.6 3.3 STS-TSA: Key Aggregate Comparisons Gross Domestic Product at Basic price, Tourism and Selected Industries in Canada, 2000 $70,000 $60,000 Millions of current dollars $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Mining,oil and gas extraction Retail trade Health Care Services (except Hospitals) And Social Assistance Hospitals Tourism Motor Vehicle manufacturing TSS-TSA: Cross Market Comparisons Tourism Expenditures by Canadians and non residents, 2000 100% 90% 15% 19% 11% 9% 80% 18% 13% 70% 60% 50% 14% 17% 11% 40% 19% 30% 24% 30% 20% 42% 10% 27% 31% Non-residents in Canada Canadians Abroad 0% Canadians at Home Other Non-tourism Commodities Other Tourism Commodities Food and Beverage Services Accommodation Transportation Sectoral Linkages: Extra-sectoral purchases 1994 External Inputs to Canadian Tourism Sector Selected Industries ($ millions ) Travel Services ($millions) 53 492 ? 2055 7753 ? 68 68 ? Communications/utilities 479 509 ? Finance, Insur. R.E. 519 1668 ? Business & computer serv. 331 239 ? Accomm. ( $ millions ) Selected Commodity Purchases Agriculture products Manufacturing products Construction services Source: Tourism Economic Impact Model (TEIM) Food and Beverages STS-TSA: Seasonal Comparisons – Total Demand $20,000 $17,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 $14,000 $11,000 $8,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Long Term Trends & Cycles (1986 Q1 to 2001 Q2) STS-TSA: Detailed Quarterly Comparisons Total Tourism Spending in Canada by Key Commodities – 2nd Quarter 2001 Total Tourism Demand In Canada ( $ millions ) Yearly Change (% ) (92$) (%) 22,417 11.6 3.6 Transportation Yearly Change Accommodation 7,460 5.7 0.8 Food and beverage services 8,524 5.2 2.9 Other tourism commodities 5,432 7.1 2.9 Total tourism commodities 43,833 8.7 2.9 Total other commodities 10,243 4.6 4.5 Tourism expenditures 54,076 7.9 3.2 Source: National Tourism indicators, Catalogue no. 13-009-XPB. Structural Linkages: Business Characteristics Distribution of Tourism Businesses by Industry *and Size % % of Total SME’s** Food and beverage service (92): Recreation and entertainment (85,96): Accommodation (91): 57 19 12 99.0 99.0 97.6 Transportation (45): Travel services (96): 6 5 98.9 99.5 Other 1 --- Total Enterprises (1999) 159,000 * 1980 Standard Industrial Classification ** Less than 100 employees Government Revenue Comparisons $1.60 $8.90 $12.40 Federal Provincial Municipal TOTAL = $15.4 Billion (1999) * Adjusted = $30 /$100 Media Content Analysis Media Content Analysis Chart 2: Breakdown of coverage by major tourism industry group, April –June 2005* While the transport industry group continued to lead coverage, mostly from attention to the airline industry, its share of coverage was greatly reduced from last quarter as attention to Jetsgo dissipated, resulting in a notable rise in profile for nonindustry coverage of government policy and tourism marketing campaigns . Cultural 8% Recreation 5% Travel Service 7% Nonindustry specific 22% Food and Beverage 3% Hospitality 13% Transport 42% Source: Cormex Research; Canadian Tourism Commission *Based on total exposure for the quarter. Latest Integrative Innovation: A Canadian Tourism Industry Industrial Outlook •Resulting supply-side forecasts are provided quarterly for a five-year period following from the current year. •Combines information from the preceding instruments and analysis to assess the current and future profitability of the Canadian tourism sector. • New economic model has been developed specifically to forecast profitability within the various key industry components. ISTS: Collaborative Organization Multi-lateral Technical Partnership Statistics Canada & Canadian Tourism Commission 20+ Other partners Objective independent statistics agency Industry champion, leadership, resources, uses Shared goals and objectives Interdependence Regular meetings, fora & working group Leadership, flexibility & firmness Mutual respect & understanding Key Requirements of “Integrated” STS Collaborative organization platform, leadership & vision Consistent standard concepts Harmonized definitions and measures of key aggregates Common integrating conceptual and data framework Tightly integrated Core Account data bases Loosely integrated feeder data bases and derivative data bases Independent quality and separate integrity of linked data sources Conclusions Canada has an “integrated” System of Tourism Statistics The TSA is the integrating instrument Defines tourism products/services Defines tourism industries Developed credible & consistent measures Consistent (broadly) with international standards Reveals total economic effects Comparability with total economy Comparability with other industries Reveals structural linkages Tracks tourism trends and performance Enables industry forecasting & future scenarios Thank you for your attention! Are there any questions? smeis@ogers.com