Analytical Structure

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Analytical Structure
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Origins, Objectives, Doctrine
Leadership, Leadership Structure
Support Structure
Strategy, Tactics
Counterterrorist Efforts
Non-Violent Political Activities
1. Origins, Objectives, Doctrine
Roots of Radical Sunni Ideology
Anti-colonial nationalism
Israel-Palestine issue
Ahmad ibn Taymiyyah
(Damascas) 1263-1328
returning to original
sources of Islam
•
•
•
•
•
Salafism
Late 1800s
return to
original sources
Deobandi Islam
1867 British-held India
anti-colonial Islam
Rashid Rida, Egypt
1866-1935
only Salafi beliefs
can free Muslims
from colonialism
•
•
Muhammad ibn Abd al Wahhab
(Arabian Peninsula)
1703-1792
return to original sources
rejects Islamic pluralism
condoned violence against apostates
anti-Ottoman, seen as foreign occupiers, apostates
•
•
•
•
•
Abu al-Ala Maududi
1903-1979
Pakistan
Purification of Islam is a key
to independence from British
Muslim Brotherhood
Egypt 1928
Hassan al-Banna
rejects British colonialism
rejects “westernization” of Islam
rejects church/state separation
Abdullah Azzam
Palestinian 1941-1989
Intellectual mentor of OBL
Sayyid Qutb
1906-1966
Egypt
member of MB
purify Islam
violence if necessary
anti-Israel
anti-US
“founder” of “Sunni
radicalism”
Milestones
1932 Saudi Arabia becomes independent
unifies Arabian regions and families
under the al-Saud family
Wahhabi Islam becomes the official creed
Al-Qaeda
Osama bin-Laden
Ayman al-Zawahri
Abd-Al-Salam Al-Faraj
Egypt, 1952-1982
disciple of Qutb
The Neglected Duty
Late 1700s
Al-Saud family alliance with Wahhabi movement
Saudi-sponsored madrassas
globally, by late 20th century-
Origins of AQ



Iranian Revolution
(1978-1979)
provides inspiration
foreign fighters
go home,
form new groups
or join existing
groups, create a
global terror
network
formation
of Afghan mujahadin
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
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Pakistan military
allies with radical
Islamic groups (1977-79)
provides sanctuary
Ideological legacy
of radical Islamic
thought
provides ideology
and inspiration
USSR invades
Afghanistan
1979
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
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
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Saudi funded religious schools
(madrassas) in Middle East
and Asia (1970s-1980s)
provides recruits with ideology
US, China, Pakistan
Egypt, Saudi Arabia,
and others funding,
supplying, and training
mujahadin and jihadis
OBL and others recruit
volunteers
from madrassas
in M. E. and Asia
(foreign fighters
or jihadis)

Time
Soviets
withdraw
1989
al-Qaeda (global)
Abu Sayyaf (Phil.)
GIA (Algeria)
HAMAS
Islamic Jihad
IMU
Jemaah Islamiah
PIJ
Bosnia, Chechnya,
Kashmir…
AQ is Clear About Goals
1996 fatwa
 1998 fatwa
 Al-Qaeda Training Manual (Manchester
Manual)
 Bin-Laden videos
 Abu Bakr Naji,
The Management of
Savagery
 Article on Mustafa
Setmariam Nasar
(Abu Musab al-Suri)
 Militant Ideology Atlas

(Combating Terrorism Center)
Restore the Caliphate

From al-Qaeda: The Many Faces of an Islamist Extremist Threat, REPORT OF
THE U.S. HOUSE PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE , JUNE 2006
AQAM Attacks 1995-2011
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2. Leadership, Leadership Structure
Founders

Abdullah Azzam

Osama bin-Laden
Leadership
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AQ Leadership 1989
Leadership 2008
Decentralization
Regional Nodes
Cells
Central Structure
OBL
Emir General
and core leaders
Shura
Media
Finance Military Religious/
Legal
N
O
C
D
E
E
L
L
S
S
Networks I


Traditional organization model
Hierarchical/corporate model
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 3
Tier 3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Networks II

Corporate Model
•
•
•
•
•
Centralization
Control
Command
Authority
Permanent
structure
• Transparent
operations for
coordination

Network model
•
•
•
•
Decentralized
Autonomous
Entrepreneurial
Disconnected or
isolated
• Temporary linkages
• Operational secrecy
Networks III

Models
Cell Operations
T
O
O
F
F
T
O
F
T
P
L
L
L
P
P
Another View of Structure
AQ Cells

From al-Qaeda: The Many Faces of an Islamist Extremist Threat, REPORT OF
THE U.S. HOUSE PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE , JUNE 2006
3. Support Structure
AQ Support and Activities
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
AQ Attacks against US
AQ Affiliated Organizations and
People (UN List)
From: http://indiandefence.com/threads/al-qaeda-is-expanding-and-its-amost-significantforeign-enemya-is-france.29577
AQ Finances

From al-Qaeda: The Many Faces of an Islamist Extremist Threat, REPORT OF
THE U.S. HOUSE PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE , JUNE 2006
4. Strategy and Tactics
The Debate:
The Far Enemy
0r
The Near Enemy
Writings on Strategy
 Abu Bakr Naji, The Management of
Savagery
 Article on Mustafa Setmariam Nasar
(Abu Musab al-Suri)
Model A: Focus on Near Enemy
Terrorist attacks
Political Agitation
Religious Indoctrination
Undermining
of current
regimes
Revolution,
Coup,
Insurgency,
Electoral
participation
(but goal of
authoritarian
State)
Model B-1: Near and Far Enemy:
US Withdrawal
Terrorist attacks
Political Agitation
Religious Indoctrination
Strike at US
Strike at US allies
Undermining
of current
regimes
US withdraws
from involvement
Revolution,
Coup,
Insurgency,
Electoral
participation
(but goal of
authoritarian
State)
Model B-2: Near and Far Enemy:
US Overreaction
Terrorist attacks
Political Agitation
Religious Indoc.
Strike at US
Strike at US allies
Undermining
of current
regimes
US Overreaction
Revolution,
Coup,
Insurgency,
Electoral
participation
(but goal of
authoritarian
state)
Classic Maoist Insurgent Warfare
(for reference only)
Phase III: Movement Warfare
Nearness
to goal
Phase II: Guerrilla Warfare
Phase I: Propaganda and Organization
Time
Al-Qaeda Insurgent/Terrorist Warfare
(for reference only)
Iran Model
Afghan./Somalia Model
Sudan Model
Nearness
To goal
Phase III: Taking Power
Phase II: Terrorist Strikes
Phase I: Education/Religious Instruction and
Creation of Network Organization
Time
Abu Bakr Naji, The Management of Savagery
Current
state
political and
religious
organization;
terrorist
attacks
create
instability;
savagery;
chaos
Time
establish
new order;
religious
order
gain
legitimacy,
authority,
power
Khobar Towers, 1996
Nairobi, August 7, 1998
USS Cole October 2000
Bali Bombing October 2002
Marriott Hotel, Jakarta, Indonesia
August 2003
Madrid Bombing, March 11, 2004
Australian Embassy Jakarta
Sept. 2004
London, July 2005
London and Glascow Attacks,
June 2007
Algerian Coast Guard Barracks
September 2007
Iraq, Weekend of July 7, 2007
(Washington Post)
Mumbai, November 2008
(Lashkar-e Taiba)
Westgate Shopping Mall, Nairobi,
September 2013 (al-Shabab)
AQAM Evolution
Far
Enemy
Hybrid
Near and
Regional
Far Enemy Groups
Morocco,
AQAP
Algeria,
AQIM
UK,
AQI
Indonesia Affiliates
Greater
Decentralization
2001
2002/3
2004
Time
Affiliates
Gain Strength
al-Shabab
Boko
ISIL
AQAP
TTP
AQIS (2014)
Autonomy
2010+
5. Counterterrorism
Measures
6. Non-Violent Activities
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