Type of Review: Annual Review Project Title: Great Himalaya Trail Development Programme Date started: 2011 Date review undertaken: Jun/Jul 2012 Instructions to help complete this template: Before commencing the annual review you should have to hand: the Business Case or earlier project documentation. the Logframe the detailed guidance (How to Note)- Reviewing and Scoring Projects the most recent annual review (where appropriate) and other related monitoring reports key data from ARIES, including the risk rating the separate project scoring calculation sheet (pending access to ARIES) You should assess and rate the individual outputs using the following rating scale and description. ARIES and the separate project scoring calculation sheet will calculate the overall output score taking account of the weightings and individual outputs scores: Description Outputs substantially exceeded expectation Outputs moderately exceeded expectation Outputs met expectation Outputs moderately did not meet expectation Outputs substantially did not meet expectation Scale A++ A+ A B C Introduction and Context What support is the UK providing? The UK has provided to SNV (Netherlands Development Organisation) a grant of £2,306,274.00 for a period of two years from July 1st 2011 to 30th June 2013 (including £491,000.00 from Feb 2010 to June 2011 for the Inception Phase). What are the expected results? The GHT seeks to ‘Increase the incomes of 1072 micro, small and medium enterprises by US $ 1.21 million and will create 2251 number of equivalent jobs by 2013’. Outcome To spread tourism benefits more widely and inclusively in five GHT districts (Humla, Dolpo, Gorkha, Solukhumbu and Taplejung). Outputs 1) Marketing and promotion of the GHT improved. 2) The ability of key partners to plan, develop and manage an inclusive tourism sector is improved. 3) Market oriented tourism business along the GHT developed. 4) Improved social and environmental outcomes in targeted districts. 1 What is the context in which UK support is provided? A. Context and need for UK intervention Inclusive Growth and the tourism sector Nepal is going through a prolonged post conflict period. The economy was severely affected by the ten-year conflict and is still suffering from political instability and insecurity. Real growth rate has remained low at around 1.5% for the last ten years. The incidence of poverty is higher in the rural areas where there are limited employment opportunities outside agriculture. The high incidence of youth unemployment was seen as one of the reasons for the conflict in Nepal and is critical for concluding the peace process. The growth potential of the manufacturing sector is limited and there are a very few other sectors where Nepal has a comparative advantage. Tourism in one of the few sectors where Nepal does have a natural comparative advantage and growth potential. It is already an important sector in terms of contribution to the GDP, export earnings and jobs. The direct contribution of Tourism to GDP in 2011 was NRs 53.5bn (£390m or 4.0% of GDP). Forecast is to rise by 4.7% in 2012.This primarily reflects the economic activity generated by hotels, travel agents, airlines and other passenger transportation services and restaurant and leisure industries directly supported by tourists and their supply chains. Tourism generated 412,500 jobs directly in 2011 and this is forecast to grow to 428,000 in 2012. Visitor exports are a key component of the direct contribution of Travel & Tourism. In 2011, Nepal generated NRs 8.6bn or £62.7m in visitor exports. In 2012, this is expected to grow by 2.8%, and the country is expected to attract 747,000 international tourist arrivals (World Travel and Tourism Council – WTTC, 2012). Within the tourism industry the trekking sector has the strongest potential to directly benefit the poor in relatively remote parts. It is estimated that the trekking sector provides direct employment to at least 20,000 (Trekking Agency Association of Nepal - TAAN Annual Report 2012) people. Nepal’s tourism industry, having survived a difficult period during the conflict, is now well placed to exploit the ‘peace dividend’ and is already enjoying a strong resurgence with record numbers of international tourist arrivals and strong growth in trekking. In spite of its potential, at present Nepal’s tourism industry (and therefore the benefits to local people which are derived from it) is concentrated in a ‘tourism triangle’ comprising Kathmandu valley, Pokhara and Chitwan, and the trekking industry in three established trekking destinations of Annapurna, Sagarmatha (Everest) and – to a lesser extent – Langtang. Of the 132,929 recorded trekkers in 2009, 86% travelled to these three small geographical areas. DFID’s Strategic Priorities This intervention builds from DFID’s strategic priorities. DFID Nepal has made wealth creation one of its primary areas of focus1 consistent with DFID’s Business Plan (2011-15). DFID’s Private Sector Development Strategy (2009) emphasises private sector-led intervention in sectors to benefit the poor through enhanced incomes as jobs. Government of Nepal Priorities Using tourism as a mechanism to reduce poverty and protect environmental resources in rural mountain communities directly supports the Ministry of Tourism and Civil Aviation (MoTCA) Tourism Policy 2065, Tourism Vision 2020, and the Nepal Tourism Year 2011 1 DFID Nepal Operation Plan 2011-14 2 campaign. The GoN Policy and Program 2065/66 (2009/10) are committed to ‘developing new tourist destinations to provide economic benefits while preserving the natural and cultural heritage of the country’. Evidence Underpinning Intervention DFID Nepal supported the Tourism for Rural Poverty Alleviation Programme (TRPAP) during the period 2001-05. This programme is seen as a pioneering programme in linking tourism with the poor2. Though this programme suffered due to the insurgency it demonstrated that livelihoods can be improved and poverty reduced by the community's involvement in local tourism development activities. TRPAP contributed to shaping Nepal’s sustainable tourism policies. TRPAP succeeded in providing village women and the poor with access to resources, increased livelihood opportunities, and improved income. The final evaluation of TRPAP commissioned by UNDP did, however, highlight as ‘lessonslearned’ the relatively weak engagement with the tourism business community during planning and implementation which undermined the market-orientation (and therefore subsequent marketability) of products developed within the context of the programme. The GHTDP has addressed this by developing strong partnerships with the private sector throughout programme implementation. The Intervention The Great Himalaya Trail Development Programme (GHTDP) addresses the fact that a large part of the country and its people have not benefited from tourism. The objective of the programme is to support tourism to drive sustainable development and poverty alleviation through the creation of an iconic tourism product for Nepal - the Great Himalaya Trail (GHT). The GHT spans the entire length of the country – from Humla in the West to Kanchenjunga in the East – providing a significant boost to the tourism industry and its associated support sectors, channelling tourists and investment in under-developed districts, and stimulating a wide range of production, income and employment opportunities for impoverished local communities. In this phase the GHTDP is contributing to economic development in 5 of Nepal’s most remote mountain districts (Humla, Dolpo, Gorkha (including Manaslu), lower Solukhumbu and Taplejung). This phase of the Programme was considered an interim strategy that would be part of a wider DFID supported tourism programme. Section A: Detailed Output Scoring Output 1: Marketing and promotion of the GHT improved. Output 1 score and performance description: During the first year of the programme, Output 1 has exceeded targets. Activities have concentrated on branding and marketing the entire GHT: building market awareness of the GHT as a major new tourism attraction for Nepal and as one of the world’s great treks. Year 2 will build on this platform, while focussing on creating and marketing unique product packages and brand identities (consistent with the broader GHT brand) for the 10 sections/destinations which comprise the GHT. Through this work, the GHTDP is helping government and industry partners establish strong foundations for long-term, sustainable growth of the GHT, and as a stimulus for business, employment and income generation opportunities for host communities along the trail. Lessons Learnt: Nepal’s Experience Implementing Sustainable Rural Tourism Development Model, UNDP and GoN. 2006. 2 3 All tour operators interviewed noted: a) the invaluable contribution of the GHT brand in positioning a new, safe and peaceful image of Nepal to the world having recently emerged from a protracted period of conflict; and b) the excellent work done by the programme team and partnership in positioning media articles in a far more extensive range of outlets than would otherwise have been achieved. Tourists (and the tour operators/trekking agencies which bring them) provide the market for tourism related goods and services in target districts and their spending while in the destination stimulates broader economic growth. Building awareness of, and demand for, the GHT and its component products and destinations is therefore an essential requirement for the programme to meet its objectives in terms of income and employment generation. The objective of Output 1 is to improve the marketing and promotion of the GHT in order to increase the flow of tourists beyond Nepal’s established trekking destinations. It is also noted that in any tourism programme there is a substantial time-lag between launching new tourism products and tourists arriving in the destination. The process typically takes a minimum of 18 months. For this reason, branding and marketing activities have been ‘front-loaded’ in the programme, with Output 1 constituting one of the major focus areas of the GHTDP during the first year. The development and implementation of the GHT Marketing Strategy has been conducted as a capacity-building exercise, with the GHTDP team working with – and through – MoTCA, Nepal Tourism Board (NTB) and Trekking Agency Association of Nepal (TAAN), all of which have fully endorsed and taken ‘ownership’ of the marketing strategy and are committing some of their own resources to promote the GHT. Indicator 1.1: Increased media coverage of GHTDP and GHT Coordinated branding, marketing and promotional work, building brand awareness of the GHT and its component destinations, and products has resulted in very high levels of media coverage both within Nepal and in key global target markets. More than 100 international media articles published in 2011/2012 as a direct result of improved marketing of GHTDP team, partners and stakeholders. 800% increase in international media coverage from GHT pilot project (2008-2010). In addition to extensive coverage in travel and tourism-related publications, the GHT has achieved extensive coverage in the mainstream media, with articles appearing in National Geographic Adventure magazine, The Guardian, Die Welt Online, Spiegel Online, BBC.com, The Telegraph, Washington Post, Etihad Airways inflight magazine, The Sydney morning Herald and others. GHT Marketing strategy launch and official launch of GHT in September 2012 (World Tourism Day) in cooperation with GHTDP partners also received international media coverage. German public television channel - Arbeitsgemeinschaft der öffentlich-rechtlichen Rundfunkanstalten der Bundesrepublik Deutschland (ARD), the equivalent of the BBC in Germany has committed to produce a 3-episode documentary on the GHT starting in 2013. Press conference organised jointly with NGCCI (Nepal German Chamber of Commerce and Industry) and Nepal Tourism Board for Caravan, Motor und Touristik (CMT) travel fair in Stuttgart, Germany, January 2012. Press conference organised jointly with Nepal Tourism Board at Internationale Tourismus Börse (ITB) travel fair in Berlin, Germany, March 2012. Presentation given to UK-based travel writers at a special reception organised by the Nepalese Embassy in London, March 2012. 4 Nepal Tourism Board supported the organisation of Business-to-Business (B2B)/press events in Eastern European markets which specifically highlighted GHT. Strong growth in traffic on the GHT official website since its launch with an average of 115,000 page views per quarter. Online Communication Strategy including re-launch of GHT website has been developed and is currently being implemented in close partnership with the private sector e.g. TAAN who is taking the lead. Substantial national and international media coverage of the GHT Climate Smart Celebrity Trek in the period Jan-April 2012, including articles dispatched by international news agencies Associated Press (AP), Agence France Presse (AFP) and Xinhua. More than 30 articles published in national media in 2011/2012 (YTD April 2012) as a direct result of improved marketing of GHTDP partners and stakeholders. Milestone 1: GHT marketing strategy endorsed & being implemented by NTB, MoTCA and/or TAAN Fully Achieved. Milestone 2: 25% increase in the number of international media articles on GHT in target publications/locations and international hits on GHT website/international media articles on GHT in target (aggregated). There has been 800% increase in the number of international media articles on GHT in target publications/locations and international hits on GHT website. The milestone has exceeded by over 700%. Indicator 1.2: Number of tour operators including target districts GHT packages in their offer The Trekking Agencies Association of Nepal (TAAN) is actively promoting GHT and GHT-branded product packages and destinations among its 800+ membership. National tour operators and Nepal-based trekking agencies have included GHT package offers in their programme and are using GHT brand as a marketing platform to promote their businesses; B2B meetings with international tour operators organised in cooperation with NGCCI and Nepal Tourism Board at CMT, Stuttgart, Germany, January 2012, ITB Berlin, Germany, March 2012 and in Prague, Moscow and St. Petersburg; B2B meetings with international tour operators organised in cooperation with Nepal Embassy in London, March 2012 On-going pro-active contacts with international tour operators in cooperation with Nepal Tourism Board. A rapidly increasing number of international tour operators (including a number of market leaders) committing to include the GHT and GHT-branded product packages offers in their product catalogues (and using the GHT brand for promotion). Examples include: - UK tour operator World Expeditions has concluded its first entire GHT Nepal traverse in February 2011 and is continuing to sell GHT packages, including full GHT Nepal traverse; - French tour operator Club Aventure has launched a GHT package and has sold its first trip from March-Jul 2012; - French outbound operator Terres d’Aventure is selling the GHT traverse in separate section trips. 5 - French outbound operator Allibert Trekking is offering trek packages for sections of the GHT. - UK operator The Mountain Company is selling GHT packaged trips to selected destinations including Dolpa, Rara and Makalu Barun. - KE Adventures (UK) committed to promoting GHT packages from 2012/13 season. - Australia based tour operator Back Track Adventures is selling GHT packages along selected sections of the GHT; Over and above committing to sell the GHT and its component products and destinations, market-leading tour operators are committing substantial resources of their own to market and promote the GHT: - German tour operator Deutscher Alpen Verein (DAV) Summit Club has committed to an extensive promotional activity starting in 2013, worth 1 million Euro to promote the GHT in the German market over a period of 10 years; this includes special trips and expeditions to GHT component destinations as well as media activities. - Hauser Exkursionen has committed to promote the GHT in its 2013 programme and is planning joint promotional activities in cooperation with Etihad Airways. - Sawadee has proposed a joint marketing promotion activity in the Dutch market and is going to include three new GHT packages to Mustang, Humla and Manaslu with their 2013 Nepal trekking programme; - Tour operator Intrepid Travel has approached GHTDP/Nepal Tourism Board for joint marketing activities to promote the GHT. Milestone 1: GHT marketing strategy endorsed & being implemented by NTB, MoTCA and/or TAAN. GHTDP GHT Marketing strategy has been endorsed and is being implemented by all partners: (MOTCA, TAAN, NTB, NGCCI, DDCs, TDCs, Local Capacity Builders, NGOs). Milestone 2: 50% increase in target TOs promoting GHT target district packages The number of Tour Operators (TOs) confirmed as promoting GHT and GHT district packages already exceeds the 50% milestone. A formal survey of the numbers of TO’s promoting GHT is planned by early 2013. Progress against expected results: Progress regarding GHT marketing has been excellent, substantially exceeding expected results. Very high levels of domestic and international media interest have contributed to strong and increasing buy-in from industry within Nepal and in global target markets. The decision by market leading international tour operators to invest substantial resources of their own in marketing the GHT is particularly encouraging. The good marketing work being undertaken needs to continue and assume greater focus. Output score: A++ Recommendations: GHT Summit for outbound operators to leverage international markets, investments opportunities and promotion of the new products. Mini workshops for Nepali tour operators to raise more awareness about the scope and collaborative partnership opportunities. Work with journalists and TAAN to develop targeted articles on GHT. 6 Ensure data collection of the TO’s promotion activities at the earliest. Impact Weighting (%): 25 Revised since last Annual Review? No. This is the first review. Risk: Low Revised since last Annual Review? No. Output 2: The ability of key partners to plan, develop and manage an inclusive tourism sector is improved. Output 2 score and performance description: The objective of Output 2 is to improve the ability of key partners to plan, develop and manage an inclusive tourism sector in Nepal by: 1) building and embedding the necessary ownership, structures and capacity to enable long-term, effective and inclusive management of the GHT; 2) creating an enabling environment which motivates and supports industry investment and maximises benefits for host communities. Overall performance is exceeding targets. At the central-level the three key institutions (MoTCA, NTB & TAAN) are engaged in productive dialogue to address and prioritise management and planning issues related to the development and promotion of the GHT. This is having an impact with central agencies co-financing prioritised activities at the District level. Stakeholders are learning how to enable tourism investment and, as a result of engaging with GHTDP planning processes are able to articulate Sustainable Tourism Action Plans (STAP) for their districts. This is a difficult and far from perfect process, but it is clear that all key stakeholders are committed to, and engaged, in this learning process, which will pay dividends later in terms of sustainability. The key challenges, relevant at both the national and district levels, which are being addressed by Output 2 activities are: 1) Lack of proper co-ordination amongst stakeholders (between government and industry). 2) Lack of strategic framework to guide activities for investment. 3) Low capacity to plan and manage tourism development. It should be noted that SNV’s capacity-building support is a particular focus for Output 2 to ensure that the long-term sustainable development and management capacity for the GHT is in place in government, industry and stakeholders. Indicator 2.1: Stakeholders work together for inclusive tourism development Stakeholders have begun to work together and have also contributed their financial resources for various activities of GHT in 2011/12, some of these include: TAAN contribution – NRs 2,860,000 (£20,875 or 35% of the total cost) for GHT product identification and promotion Participation in a fair in Stuuartgart Germany 2012 - NGCCI – NRs 2,600,000 (£18,978 or 79% of the cost and NTB – NRs 500,000 (£3,649 or 15%) and GHDTP – NRs 200,000 (£1,459 or 6%) NTB – NRs 4,100,000 (£29,927 or 88%) and GHTDP – NRs 726,600 (£5,303 or 12%) for promotion of GHT through road shows in Ukraine, Petersburg Russia and USA 7 National level Strong, effective working relations established with, and between, national partners All partners actively participate both in Programme Steering Committee, Programme Working Committee and GHTDP Marketing Committee, guiding the project activities and facilitating public-private sector coordination and collaboration. Appropriate roles for each of the national partners have been defined and each is actively leading the relevant components of the programme: MoTCA: Coordination and leadership, facilitating government support and ownership Joint Secretary chairs Steering Committee Under Secretary chairs Working Committee and Marketing Committee. MoTCA has committed section officers to support GHTDP implementation. Senior officials promoted GHT as the showcase new product for Nepal Tourism Year 2011 domestically and overseas. Senior officials promoting and advocating GHTDP among other relevant government agencies. NTB: Promotion of GHT and its component destinations to international markets Led in development of GHTDP Marketing Strategy, hosting all consultations and the official launch. Integrated GHT marketing strategy into their marketing activity plans, pro-actively collaborating with the programme, planning and co-financing GHT marketing and promotion activities. TAAN: Facilitating industry participation, ownership, investment, product development Organised, led and co-financed exploratory product development and mapping expeditions to new GHT districts/districts. Producing and co-financing GHT branded maps of new destinations and disseminating to TAAN member trekking agencies. Also available for purchase in shops. Committed to hosting and managing GHT website after conclusion of the programme. Its staff have received online communication and web-management training for this purpose. Led the stakeholder consultation process in the sensitive issue of identifying the GHT route (MoTCA facilitated consultation with relevant line ministries within government). In order to help the leadership of key partners become more effective advocates for the GHT within their organisations and wider networks, senior officials from MoTCA, TAAN and NTB have received internationally-recognised Prince 2 project management training and are participating in a specialist leadership training designed by SNV for senior decision-makers. This extended programme offers personal mentoring between trainings and has been well received. District level Local capacity-builders (LCBs), selected through a process of competitive tender, have been contracted to lead implementation of the GHTDP in their districts, supported and guided by the GHTDP advisory team, based in Kathmandu. Each LCB is based in, and is strongly committed to its district. Since July 2011, the LCBs have been undertaking comprehensive programme of community consultation and mobilisation activities to raise awareness of tourism, and to stimulate community inputs into the (STAPs). Tourism Development Committees (TDCs) have been formed or re-constituted in all 5 target districts to lead and coordinate district tourism planning. Members of TDCs in all 5 districts have received Basic Tourism Training (BTT), so that they have the necessary understanding of the tourism industry to fulfil their responsibilities as an effective planning body. 8 Key decision makers and influential actors in each of the target districts are also receiving Leadership training. Value Chain Analyses (VCAs) have been conducted in all districts to inform Strategic Tourism Action Plans. The entire process of market-based, district level sustainable, inclusive tourism planning has been documented in a series of 3 manuals to be used as a tool for other districts not currently benefitting from GHTDP support. The manuals cover VCAs (research and analysis), capacity building of TDCs, and Strategic Tourism Action Planning. The first two have already been published; the final one is currently being edited for publication. Milestone: MoTCA, NTB and TAAN have made policy and/or planning changes to reflect lessons learnt from GHTDP. This milestone is for December 2012. The programme is on track to achieve it. Indicator 2.2: Tourism related (inclusive) strategies and plans have been developed and implemented National level SNV/GHTDP has been requested by MoTCA to support the development of a national Strategic Tourism Action Plan. Implementation was planned to commence in the second quarter of 2012, but was delayed due to transfer of senior staff. It is now expected to commence in the second half of 2012 with preliminary analysis being done currently. District level STAPs for Humla and Dolpo were developed during the pilot project. Recommended actions from these STAP's have now been incorporated by the two DDC's into their annual District Development Plans (DDP's). The DDCs have allocated funds to support implementation and contribute to a better enabling environment for tourism development in the destinations. STAPs for the three new districts Gorkha, Solukhumbu and Taplejung have been drafted, adapted/approved on the basis of validation workshops with national industry and government stakeholders in Kathmandu, and finalised in June. DDC Gorkha has formally approved the Gorkha STAP with implementation commencing in July. Approval of the STAPs for Lower Solu and Taplejung by their respective DDCs is expected in July. Milestone: STAPs for the three new districts are developed and adopted. All STAPs developed; Gorkha adopted, Taplejung and Solukhumbhu expected to be adopted within July. Implementation already started in Humla and Dolpa districts. Progress against expected results: Despite the challenging political environment in which the programme is being implemented, progress in Output 2 has been very good. There is excellent opportunity for Tourism strategy development led by the Government and the Private sector. The programme has succeeded, at both the national and district levels, in facilitating: - Near unanimous support across the political spectrum. - Substantially improved partnership and collaboration between government and industry in planning and management of the GHT. - Improved coordination between key stakeholders (e.g. MoTCA, NTB and TAAN at national level; DDC, Chamber of Commerce, tourism associations, government line agencies at district level). 9 - A stronger role and voice for industry representatives in GHT planning at the national level, and tourism development planning in target districts. A strong sense of ownership over the GHT among the national partners, which are integrating GHT development into their annual plans and co-financing activities. Output score: A+ Recommendations: Work proactively with GoN and the private sector on the development of the Tourism Strategy or Action Plan. DFID funded Center for Inclusive Growth (CIG) and Investment Climate Reform programmes and GHT to ensure that the tourism work shares lessons and explores investment opportunities to complement each other if possible. Impact Weighting (%): 25 Revised since last Annual Review? No Risk: Low Revised since last Annual Review? No Output 3: Market oriented tourism business along the GHT developed Output 3 score and performance description: The output is on track. As outlined above for Output 2, a valuable tourism planning and management process is underway at the district level in each of the five target districts. The STAP planning process has greatly helped in terms of identifying and addressing the training needs of local actors – whose capacity building is: a) critical to facilitating the (tourism) product and service development process; b) ensuring that locals know how to receive and service tourists; and c) lower the product and service prices to make these emerging areas more price sensitive and competitive with the established trekking routes. Activities implemented under Output 3 of the programme are designed to stimulate and support the development and growth of successful, market-oriented tourism-related businesses, and to help host communities along the trail identify and successfully harness high-potential production, income and employment opportunities within the tourism value chain. This value chain encompasses not only direct opportunities in the tourism industry (accommodation, restaurants, tea shops, guiding, cooking, pottering etc.) but also in the many support sectors (agriculture, transport, handicrafts etc.) which benefit from tourism. The key challenges being addressed by Output 3 activities are: 1) tourism businesses lack the quality expected in international markets; 2) promotion of GHT packages for the industry to market; 3) local product and service providers lack sufficient information about, and access to, markets. To address these challenges and ensure that interventions are targeted effectively, the programme is: Mapping locally available goods and services. Working in close partnership with the trekking industry to accurately understand 10 demand for goods and services in each district. Through awareness-raising, skills training and facilitation, help existing and new MSMEs in target districts develop/adapt/improve their goods and services to more accurately meet market demand. Building demand for locally-produced goods and services within the trekking industry Facilitating business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C) links between local producers and the trekking industry (consumers). Indicator 3.1: Number of MSMEs in target district showing significant changes in their business practices A comprehensive range of activities have been conducted to ensure that MSME support is accurately aligned to market demand and resources are allocated where they will have maximum impact, including: - An extensive data set has been compiled for the entire national GHT route, including existing goods and services. Existing and prospective trekking routes and itineraries have also been documented/developed for sharing with industry partners through TAAN. - Saleable routes have been identified for all 3 new districts with entry and exit points. - MSME and technical vocational education training (TVET) manuals developed during the pilot phase have been revised, up-dated and expanded. - A partnership is being developed with the EC-funded, global High Impact Tourism Training for Jobs & Income (HITT) programme - which is developing new methodologies to strengthen the planning, capacity and delivery of tourism TVET. All MSME’s have received the Basic Tourism Training foundation course in all 5 districts based on best practices from the results and conclusions of the district Value Chain Analyses and STAPs. Milestone: Business skills/management training/support delivered to 170 potential MSME entrepreneurs in 5 districts (with 30% of those trained women) 663 MSME and tourism entrepreneurs (new and existing along the trail and from district headquarter) have received Business skills/management training with 47% of those trained are women. The milestone has been substantially exceeded. Indicator 3.2: Tour operator and tourist expenditure on local goods and services In response to direct requests from tour operators and trekking agencies for more detailed information about the trekking itineraries and available goods and services along the GHT and in the new districts/destinations, the entire GHT has been mapped, and a GIS-based database developed including: - Trekking itineraries, including walking distances, directions, altitudes, difficulty of the treks, entry and exit points, how to get there and away etc. - Attractions along the trail and breaking down the whole GHT into sellable packages, including marketing - Locally available goods and services related to tourism (lodges, restaurants, etc.) Value Chain Analyses (VCA) of all 5 target districts completed, with current tourism expenditure documented and mapped. These analyses identify where greatest opportunities for business, jobs and income-generation exist, and therefore where GHTDP/stakeholder interventions should be targeted for maximum pro-poor impact. Each VCA feeds directly into the relevant district’s STAP. A strategy has been developed for rolling out Responsible Travel Nepal (RTN) training and support to trekking companies promoting GHT target districts (this is based on a successful RTN pilot project that SNV implemented. A partnership with Travelife (which has an extensive network of outbound tour operators in Europe seeking responsible products in destinations) has been agreed to support implementation. 11 Milestone 1: RTN action plans developed. RTN plan developed. Implementation (training of companies) to commence in second half of 2012. Milestone 2: 10% increase in the value of local goods and services purchased by Kathmandu based TOs and tourist discretionary expenditure (aggregated) along prioritised routes in target districts. On track in pilot districts (see details in Section B 1.6: ‘Annual Outcome Assessment’) Too early in the programme and tourism development cycle to ascertain outcomes in the three new districts. The review team felt that this is a very ambitious target set for the first year and needs to be revisited against the PM&E framework. Progress against expected results: Output 3 activities are progressing well. Strong foundations have been put in place to enable tourism companies and host community MSMEs along the trail to maximise the benefits they will derive from the results of the Output 1 and Output 2. With assistance from Overseas Development Institute (ODI), the GHTDP has developed a methodology to measure tourism-related increases in income and employment at the district level. The methodology adopted captures district and village-level expenditure by trekking agents. As noted above and as supported by international evidence the overall contribution to income and employment benefits will only be tracked at the end of the programme, due to the inevitable time lag between implementation and outcome measurement. Output score: A Recommendations: Review the log frame indicators and milestones and ensure the PM&E framework is realigned with it. Expedite data collection for the PM&E framework to report against key output indicators and milestones. Impact Weighting (%): 30 Revised since last Annual Review? No Risk: Medium Revised since last Annual Review? No Output 4: Improved social and environmental outcomes in targeted districts. Output 4 score and performance description: The output is on target. Overall progress on social and environmental outcomes is satisfactory. From interviews undertaken with a range of stakeholders it is apparent that a range of useful activities are being undertaken under both of these programme areas – while the review itself was limited in time and scope, it is noted that: a) work with the radio stations has been especially effective at raising awareness of tourism planning and management issues (which is helping to ready communities for receiving tourists); and, b) the training undertaken at the district and village levels is reaching a receptive and wide 12 audience that is gender and caste sensitive. GHTDP has collected and analysed disaggregated information on gender and minority/disadvantaged groups’ participation in key activities of the programme. Figures reveal overall 31% female participation in all activities; similarly overall 55% participants are from minority and disadvantaged group (janjati and dalits). On the environmental sub-indicators, environmental surveys are conducted and awareness training is organised; stakeholder consultations started for formulation of activities (sub-projects) on environmental aspects in the programme districts. Tourism Education & Awareness Programme (TEAP) radio programmes have been effectively implemented in all five programme districts in collaboration with local FM stations. The GHTDP also provided funding to a programme partnership with the Himalayan Climate Initiative (HCI) and, specifically, a celebrity trek spanning the length of the GHT that led to a firm linkage with the climate change agenda by key Government and private sector stakeholders. 4.1 Social indicators Gender Empowerment: the PM&E framework stipulates that at least 30% of the activities should disproportionately benefit women across the various outputs. Female representation in different trainings conducted by GHTDP was 31% until June 2012: Minority/disadvantaged group empowerment: This indicator is used to measure inclusion of disadvantage groups including women and low caste communities (janjati, Dalit) and in GHTDP programme. The distribution of trainees by caste is as follows: Brahmin/Chhetri – 45%; Janajati – 51%; and dalits – 4%. Milestone 1: Identification of focus areas along priority routes in each of the five districts. Achieved Milestone 2: 20% improvement in performance relative to baseline. Data not yet available. Review team felt this is too ambitious target set for the first year of operation. 4.2 Environmental indicators Environmental Surveys have been conducted in all 5 programme districts. Two Environmental Indicators have been selected as stipulated in the PM&E framework for programme districts. Solid Waste Management: Environmental Surveys identified the need for improving local practices in solid waste management as the first step in improving environmental sanitation and cleanliness of the areas to attract more tourists. Clean energy access/use: this indicator is selected based on the importance of clean energy for bringing positive impact on lives of women and men along the trails through: improvements in heating and cooking technologies; reduced inhouse pollution; and reduced reliance on forests as the main source of fuel. The programme has prepared solid baselines with pictorial descriptions of the current status of environmental sanitation; consultations with Renewable Energy stakeholders have begun; and Training of Trainers (ToT) on Tourism Environment Awareness Programme has been initiated. Milestone 1: Identification of focus areas along priority routes in each of the five districts. 13 Achieved Milestone 2: 20% improvement in performance relative to baseline. Data not yet available. Too early to track. Progress against expected results: Overall progress regarding Gender Empowerment has been satisfactory with an average of 31% female participation in all GHTDP activities (against a target of 30%). The percentage of female participation is considerably higher in the components where the GHTDP and Local Capacity Builders have higher level of influence in setting criteria for selection of participants (such as for MSMEs selection where female participation is as high as 45% and 43% in Hotel Management training). The environmental component is also progressing well with two clear and practical areas of work being focused which will contribute to both environmental and tourism promotion outcomes. Output score: B Recommendations: The programme had difficulties to recruit a PM&E advisor. With this capacity now in place the programme team urgently needs to strengthen the recording, analysing, documentation and dissemination of gender and social inclusion data. The programme should also revise the terminology of the social sub-indicators as follows as the current terminology is too broad and ambiguous. For example: Replace “Gender Empowerment” with “No of women skilled/trained” (disaggregated); and “Minority/disadvantaged group empowerment” with % of representation and participation of socially excluded groups (disaggregated by caste and social groups). Impact Weighting (%): 20 Revised since last Annual Review? No Risk: Medium Section B: Results and Value for Money. 1. Progress and results Has the logframe been updated since last review? No (but it will be) No. However it is recommended that the log-frame be up-dated for realistic indicators and milestones align the PM&E framework that has just been developed. 1.2 Overall Output Score and Description: A+ 1.3 Direct feedback from beneficiaries In the limited time available, the review team consulted with central-level agencies (MoTCA, 14 TAAN, NTB, individual trekking companies) and district-level actors (DDC, TDC, Chamber of Commerce, MSME actors). While many actors were not aware as to the full extent of activities underway at the centre, district and village levels – all Nepali-actors were strongly supportive of the steps being taken to: a) strengthen and promote the actors and agencies involved in the institutional environment; b) build the multi-dimensional product and service base; and c) Continue to communicate the GHT brand to the international market. All tour operators interviewed noted the invaluable contribution of the GHT brand in positioning a new, safe and peaceful image of Nepal to the world having recently emerged from a protracted period of conflict. Feedback from the private sectors (tour operators, TAAN and NTB) and district level actors strongly appreciate the variety of vocational and basic industry training being delivered at the district level, which helps lower the price of product packages sold to out-bound agents making them more competitive with the established and conventional trekking destinations. Further, all partners value the high quality of the leadership training they have received; and, confirm the fundamental need for responsible tourism planning and management skills to be passed to actors at the DDC and VDC levels – without this training (which no other actors provide) tourism development in these areas simply would not take hold, and there are few if any development alternatives open to these remote and impoverished communities. Private sector actors, Ministry staff and local stakeholders are also seeking: a) greater control and oversight over programme budgets; and, b) requesting programme funds to finance small infrastructure projects for sustainability – a number of actors notably trekking agencies and district level stakeholders, called for the GHT to include a small infrastructure budget (for porter’s shelter, water supply, trail bridges maintenance, support to lodges development in rural areas) for maximum success of the programme. These were few if any substantive criticisms of the programme. All key actors appreciated the leadership and industry knowledge training they have received. Some trekking agencies also revealed an interest on their part to invest in lodge chain development. An interview with the IFC’s program manager also made clear the IFC’s SME investment program is further source of potential funds for entrepreneurs interested to invest in GHT related projects as is Center for Inclusive Growth’s work in Pokhara. Recommendation: It is therefore recommended that further attention be given to: a) Explore possibility of complementing GHT with IFC and CIG activities. b) Include representatives of other donor/development programs such as IFC, CIG, GIZ and ICIMOD in regular GHTDP briefings or donor coordination meetings to build synergy and the likelihood of additional investment for the GHT private sector. 15 1.4 Summary of overall progress The programme is making very good progress. All output indicators are being achieved, or exceeded, in all areas except those relating to data collection, and aggregated social and environmental measures, where delays have arisen in relation to recruiting an experienced and qualified PM&E advisor. The programme is arguably Nepal’s best designed and executed tourism programme to date. There are a number of factors relevant to this proposition, namely the GHTDP: is focused upon a unique and exceptionally strong brand; has strong private sector linkages – and, critically, is centred around facilitating business and enterprise linkages at each step of the many different product and service supply chains; builds upon extensive experience and lessons learned from previous tourism projects in Nepal most notably the TRPAP; enjoys strong political and government support at the centre and district levels – from across Nepal’s fractured and divided political parties; key actors and agencies in Kathmandu have a far greater knowledge and a much deeper understanding of responsible tourism planning and management systems than was present 10-15 years ago. 1.5 Key challenges 1) Political instability and frequent changes of government leads to delays in programme implementation. Lack of political leadership in the districts (with no elected bodies for several years) - slows and complicates decision making as consensus needs to be built between political parties. 2) Mixed capacity of national programme partners e.g. MoCTA, NTB and TAAN. 3) Limited capacity of GHTDP implementing partner organisations in the districts (‘local capacity builders’). 4) Sustainability – all stakeholders have expressed strong reservation of the 2 year time frame of such a complex programme and expressed fear that the excellent achievement will not be sustained if the programme ended in the present end date. 5) Private Sector leverage - The project should explore opportunity for GHT to help leverage investment and matching funds. As a result Stakeholders requested: Continuation of the GHDTP – To expand and sustain current achievements. Support small infrastructure funds - all beneficiaries stressed the need for funding small infrastructure in the new product destinations for sustainability of the good work initiated that is not part of the present phase. Support in the development of a National Strategy led by the GoN and the Private Sector. 16 1.6 Annual Outcome Assessment The time-lag between launching new tourism products / destinations and tourists arriving in the destination mean that it is too early to document impacts at the Outcome level just after one year of the programme. However, emerging outcome level impacts in the two pilot project districts of Humla and Dolpo provide indications of what can be expected. Surveys of those who received GHTDP training and support indicate: In the pilot phase 100 MSMEs trained in Humla and Dolpa. The net additional jobs has increased by 1.2 in average with an average increase in annual income by NRs 110,000 (£ 802). Increased business links between local agents and Kathmandu-based trekking agencies resulted in an average 65 % increase in the number of trekking groups received by local agents [N.B. The small pilot project budget allowed very limited marketing and promotion of the destination. It is anticipated that growing market demand for the GHT-branded products and destinations (evidenced by highly encouraging Output 1 indicators) resulting from the GHTDP’s marketing and promotion will substantially increase these impact of the programme as visitor numbers in target destinations grow in the following years]. 2. Costs and timescale 2.1 Is the project on-track against financial forecasts: Yes The programme is on track against the financial forecast. The programme has demonstrated good forecast and expenditure progress against targets. The contribution allocated for the development of the tourism strategy may need to be reviewed against GoN’s timescale towards the end of this financial year. 2.2 Key cost drivers The key cost drivers are from procurement of services. On VfM and savings, the GHT team has been able to successfully negotiate reasonable fee rates and expenses making substantial savings e.g. the project saved Nrs 3,098,060 (£ 22,613) for STAP development in Taplejung, Gorkha and Solukhumbu and NRs1,293,905 (£ 9,444) for training with Leadership Training Alliance Nepal. 2.3 Is the project on-track against original timescale: Yes 3. Evidence and Evaluation 3.1 Assess any changes in evidence and implications for the project The PM&E framework is being revised and will provide better evidence of the effect of the GHT programme on poverty reduction and lessons emerging from the programme. 3.2 Where an evaluation is planned what progress has been made? A formal evaluation is not planned for this phase, but if longer term support is provided then a formal evaluation should be included. However a formal survey of the numbers of TO’s promoting GHT is planned in early 2013 that will present evidence of the impact of the programme. 17 4. Risk 4.1 Output Risk Rating: Medium 4.2 Assessment of the risk level: Medium 4.3 Risk of funds not being used as intended Low. This is a direct Accountable Grant funding. SNV has robust financial management and programme monitoring in place. 4.4 Climate and Environment Risk Climate and environment risks are low and opportunities high. The Climate and environment risks and impact awareness raising was conducted through the GHT Climate Change Trek – which was very successful. 5. Value for Money 5.1 Performance on VfM measures This project has performed well against economy, efficiency, and effectiveness measures. Economy: The programme has performed well within the existing budget through excellent planning. It has also been able to obtain co-financing for product development through costsharing with TAAN. The leverage from trade fairs has been effective and cost sharing with TAAN has been very effective (refer Output 2; indicator 2.1). Efficiency: The programme is one of the best designed tourism of its kind. It has been able to obtain buy-in from a range of critical players particularly, the GoN and the private sector that has aided in the smooth operation as well as ownership of the programme. Effectiveness: As noted it is too early to judge the overall effectiveness of the programme but in just the first year of the project period it has exceeded some of its targets so the indications are good of overall impacts being achieved. 5.2 Commercial Improvement and Value for Money The programme has been able to recruit competent staff and consultants who have delivered excellence in the first year. SNV follow rigid, open and transparent selection process for local partners and consultants even for small contract. Consultants input time/days are also closely monitored. 5.3 Role of project partners SNV has been the key implementing partner along with the Ministry of Tourism who chair the Steering Committee and the private sector e.g. TAAN who is proactively collaborating in product development and marketing and NTB in promoting GHT. The DDCs are involved in developing the STAPs and the facilitating the TDCs. 5.4 Does the project still represent Value for Money: Yes 18 5.5 If not, what action will you take? N/A 6. Conditionality: None 6.1 Update on specific conditions: None 7. Conclusions and actions The first year of operations of GHTDP has been encouraging. There is broad agreement among all GHT partners – MoCTA, NTB, TAAN, SNV and DFID – that the GHTDP is the best designed and executed tourism programme in Nepal to date. A strong collaboration amongst the GoN, donor and private sector is also an evidence of the success of the programme. Whilst the current programme is on track, the programme team should ensure that the recommended actions are taken. At a broader level, with a life-span of just two years, the GHTDP is an extremely short tourism intervention. The review and an independent analysis of the GHT (Refer Issues, constraints and looking ahead report (2012). P Rogers) have clearly identified that there is a need and opportunity to continue and/or intensify engagement in GHT. GHTDP has already established an excellent product and working well on the ground and internationally. In order not to lose the achievements the review team recommends that support to GHTDP is extended for a further 2-3 years. This potential and modality should be explored as soon as possible due to the current end date of the programme (15 June 2013) so that a proper sustainability plan or a responsible exit is agreed in a timely manner. In agreeing to support the GHTDP in the first instance DFID had anticipated continuing this support through the Nepal Market Development Programme. Based on the findings of this review it is recommended that this option now be investigated in more detail. 8. Review Process The review was led by the Lead Adviser for the GHTDP supported by the DFID Private Sector Development Adviser and Programme Officer, in co-ordination with the Government, the project team and the private sector stakeholders (TAAN and NTB). A specific financial and administration review confirmed the robustness of the systems and compliances being employed. The findings are based on extensive consultations with project staff, Government staff, TAAN, TOs and NTB representatives supplemented by a field trip to Gorkha and analysis of progress against agreed outputs and their associated log frame indicators. The review has also been informed by the independent analysis of the GHT (Refer Paul Roger’s Issues, constraints and looking ahead report (2012). 19