Recent Developments in CDOs Gloria Lu, CFA Associate Director, Structured Finance Ratings Standard & Poor’s 21st May, 2007 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Copyright (c) 2006 Standard & Poor’s, a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Agenda • CDO Market Overview • CPDO Index and Managed Trades • Non Credit Trades • Other Trades CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 2. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Global CDO Issuance Statistics Global CDOs Issuance Size Europe Asia/Pacific Total no of deal (Million in USD) 600,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2004 2005 2006 © Standard & Poor's 2007. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 3. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 2007YTD Total no of Deals USA Asia (ex-Japan) CDO Issuance Statistics Asia (ex-Japan) CDOs Composition by Cash Flow & Synthetic Synthetic No of Tranches 6,000 120 5,000 100 4,000 80 3,000 60 2,000 40 1,000 20 0 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 © Standard & Poor's 2007. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 4. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 2006 2007 Total no of Tranches (Million in USD) Cashflow Asian CDO Market Recent Development • Cash Flow • Increased balance sheet CLO issuance • Rising interest in Asian-flavored CDO • Synthetics • Stable vanilla STCDO issuance • Variations on spread-based or market value- based products CPDO Credit CPPI • Option based products Commodities F/X Rates • Others CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 5. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. CPDO - Economic Backdrop 5 year on-the-run IG CDS Jan 2005 to Feb 2007 Source: JP Morgan • Given tight spread environment, there are few alternatives to achieve investment grade return targets except through a rule-based, leveraged credit strategy. • For an IG corporate index CPDO, the idea is migration to non-IG and default will have been flushed out, potentially at a cost, when the index is rolled very 6 months. • Leverage and controlled credit degradation will combine to produce an instrument that is highly rated and pays an attractive coupon. But to do so, liquidity in the underlying index is crucial. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 6. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. CPDO – General Framework • A CPDO is a leveraged trade on a portfolio of names • The leverage is a clearly defined function that usually depends on the shortfall Credit Portfolio = Shortfall x Multiplier NAV Ceiling (Positive Cash out amount) Multiplier Leveraged Credit Portfolio Shortfall • Thus we need to look at both the asset and liability side as both of these factors effect the calculation of shortfall – very different from a Synthetic CDO where only the asset side need to be modeled CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 7. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. CPDO – General Framework • Asset side • Defaults • Recoveries • Asset Correlation • Spread movements • Interest Rates • Liability side • Interest Rates • FX risks • Waterfall CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 8. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. CPDO - Index Trades Default Probability • Index Deals – Have a portfolio where the constituents are regularly replaced (ie CDX and iTraxx replace every 6 months) • Default risk is greatly reduced as non-investment grade assets are removed from the portfolio • For Index trades a simplification is to adjust the default probabilities used in the CDO Evaluator and use this model to generate default times for each of the assets • The default curve is generated by applying the probability of default between year 1 and year 2 in the original Standard and Poor’s asset default table for each year. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 9. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. CPDO – Index Trades Default Probability • The graph below shows the effect of the reduction in asset default probabilities to account for the rolling nature of the index 14.00% 12.00% Standard PDs Adjusted PDs 10.00% Probability 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% No of Defaults in 10 years CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 10. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0.00% CPDO - Index Trades Recoveries and Correlation • Recoveries – If an asset in the portfolio does default there is assumed to be some level of recovery. • As with the standard CDO Evaluator recoveries are assumed to be follow a Beta Distribution with the Mean and Standard Deviation levels the same as for Synthetic CDOs • Asset Correlation – We would expect to see more / less defaults in a portfolio that has less / more diversity • Use same assumptions in the standard CDO Evaluator between industries within industry Within Country local regional global 5% 5% 5% 15% 15% 15% Within Region local regional global 5% 5% 5% 5% 15% 15% Between Regions local regional global 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 11. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. CPDO Credit Risk • Credit Risk – Defaults lead to a reduction in the portfolio NAV. The effect of default is magnified as the structure is leveraged. - Eg: 250-name portfolio, 15 times leveraged. – With a 40% recovery, one default leads to a decrease in NAV of [(1-0.4)÷250] x 15 = 3.6%. – The decrease would only be 0.24% with an unleveraged portfolio. – However, the exposure to iTraxx and CDX indices limits default risk since short-term exposure to IG names. – BUT Credit risk may increase with other more complex structures. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 12. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. CPDO - Index Trades Spread Movements • Spread Movements of the index as a whole have been calibrated to follow an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process: d log S (t ) k ( log S (t )) dt dW (t ) • Where • log S is the logarithm of the credit spread • • • k is the mean reversion is the long-term mean is the volatility CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 13. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Spread in CPDO Performance • Spread Risk – An increase in spreads causes initially a mark-to-market loss to the structure. – Assume a structure contracting a 5-year CDS at 50bps and an increase of spreads of 10bps. Compared to the market rate, the structure is earning 10bps less than the current risk investors are exposed to for a 5-year period. The market value of the pool is negatively affected: the higher the leverage the larger the decrease. Assuming a 15 times leverage, the MTM decrease effect is approximately 10bps x 5 x 15= 7.50% (with no discounting). – However, higher spreads are also a benefit to the structure due to the higher premium earned over the next roll period. – At 15 times leverage, a 10bps spread increase will lead to 1.50% higher return per annum. – Any MTM losses incurred from spread widening in the underlying assets can be made back by increasing the leveraged exposure to this higher spread so that the future risky income will compensate for this loss. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 14. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. CPDO - Index Trades Interest Rates • Interest Rates – We need to model interest rates for two purposes • On the assets side, in order to calculate mark-to-market value at each time • On the liability side interest to calculate the interest accrued in the cash deposit account. • Interest Rates are assumed to follow a Heath Jarrow Morton - This model allows us to derive the term structure of forward or spot interest rates • The stochastic process for the spot interest rate r(t) can be described by: t 2 t 2 ( t u ) r (t ) f (0, t ) 1 e e dW (u ) 2 0 2 • Where • • • the forward rate at initial time 0 f (0, t ) the forward rate volatility the mean reversion parameter • To date FX risk has not been explicitly modeled in these transactions – the risk has been taken by the arranging bank CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 15. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. CPDO - Index Trades Waterfall • Leverage Function – The exact leverage function is transaction specific but a typical example would be the following: • Shortfall = PV (liability) ( 1+ Adjustment ) – NAV • Target Notional = Gearing Factor * Shortfall / PV (CDS_Premium) • Where • PV (liability) – Is the sum of all remaining target coupons, fees and final principal redemption paid to the investor discounted at the risk free interest rate • Adjustment – Leverage Cushion • NAV = Deposit Account + MtM of risky CDS portfolio • Gearing Factor – Increase in leverage to account for defaults in the portfolio • PV (CDS_Premium) – Sum of all remaining spread premium income until maturity paid by the protection buyer discounted by the risky interest rate CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 16. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. CPDO – Index Trades Results Stochastic Spread Example - Stressed Defaults 1.2 2.00% Stochastic Spread Example - Zero Defaults Fixed Spread Example - Zero Defaults 1.80% 1 1.50% 20 1.60% 1.2 1.2 1.40% 1 1 18 1.30% 1.20% 0.6 1.00% Spread of Assets NAV / Cash In Amount 0.8 16 1.10% 0.80% 0.4 0.60% 14 0.40% Cash In NAV Spread 12 0.70% 10 10 9 9. 5 8 8. 5 7 7. 5 6. 5 6 5. 5 5 4. 5 4 3. 5 3 2 2. 5 0. 5 1 0.00% 1. 5 0 0.6 0.6 Leverage 0.20% Time (Years) Stochastic Spread Example - Stressed Defaults 16 0.7 8 0.50% 14 0.6 0.4 0.4 6 12 0.30% 0.5 10 4 Cumulative Losses Leverage 0.2 0.2 0.4 Cash In Cash In 8 0.3 NAV NAV Spread Leverage 0.10% 2 6 0.2 00 Leverage 0.1 Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 10 9 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 9. 5 8 8. 5 7. 5 7 6. 5 6 5. 5 5 4 4. 5 3 3. 5 2 2. 5 1. 5 1 0. 5 0 Time (Years) 5 9. 10 10 9 9. 5 5 8. 9 8 7. 5 7 Cumulative Losses 0 0 8 5 7. 8. 5 7 5 6. 6 5 Time (Years) 2 6 5 5. 6. 5 5 5 4. 5. 5 4 4. 5 3 2. 5 2 5 3. 4 3 5 2. 3. 5 2 5 1. 1. 5 1 1 5 0. 0. 5 0 0 17. -0.10% 0 4 Spread of Assets 0.90% 0.2 0 NAV NAV/ Cash / CashInInAmount Amount 0.8 0.8 CPDO – Managed Trades • The next generation of CPDOs is expected to be transactions that do not rely on solely the CDX and iTraxx or therefore rolling every 6 months • They can range from other indices (eg CDX XO, CDX EM, Credit Steepeners etc) to completely bespoke portfolios • Also the replenishment criteria can be different – eg roll every 12 months or even remove a name the day it goes to a particular rating • To model these portfolios there needs to be significant adjustment to the modeling approach as the assumptions made will not be valid for different portfolios CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 18. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. CPDO - Managed Trades Transition Model • To capture the much larger diversity in asset portfolios and roll mechanics the modeling of asset ratings must be done using a transition model and not just a default model • Thus each asset in the portfolio is transitioned on a timely basis according to a transition matrix • If there are no substitutions in the portfolio the default rates at each point in time are consistent with the standard CDO Evaluator • This is a much more accurate measure of the MtM as this can now be calculated on an individual basis as opposed to an index basis CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 19. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. CPDO - Managed Trades Spread Model Spread Level A AA Spread Differential Rating Transition AAA to AA AAA Spread Differential Same Rating 5Yr 4.5Yr 4Yr CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 20. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. t Modelling Objectives for Commodities/FX • Use of a simple/intuitive model across all asset classes • A model based on statistical AND economic/market analysis • Model calibration transparency • Model compatibility with other asset classes CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 21. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Structure Commodity Trigger Swap CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 22. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Model Specification: Commodities Commodity Spot Prices: dS ln S dt dW dJ up dJ down S Where β: speed of mean reversion ξ: level of mean reversion σ: volatility W: Wiener process(random walk) Jup/Jdown: uncorrelated up and down jumps adding fat tails to W CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 23. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Model Output • Typical example of a simulation process • Estimation of the default probability(PD) for a trigger swap (CTS,FXTS) • Mapping of PD to S&P credit rating for corporates CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 24. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Portfolio Analysis • STEP 1: Assign S&P rating to each individual PD according to the Default Tables of CDO Evaluator for the specified maturity of the contract Asset Description PD S&P Rating Aluminium struck at 40% 0.42% A Copper struck at 40% 2.46% BBB- Lead struck at 40% 14.40% BB- Nickel struck at 40% 9.08% B Tin struck at 40% 0.00% AAA Zinc struck at 40% 5.36% B+ Gold struck at 40% 0.18% AA Silver struck at 40% 3.46% BBB- Platinum struck at 40% 1.30% BBB+ Palladium struck at 40% 2.50% BBB- Brent struck at 40% 8.62% BB WTI struck at 40% 7.14% BB Gas Oil struck at 40% 7.50% BB Heating Oil struck at 40% 6.16% BB+ Unleaded Petrol struck at 40% 7.34% BB 5.52% BB+ CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 25. Natural Gas struck at 40% Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Portfolio Analysis • STEP 2: Adjust the correlation table to reflect the correlation structure of the commodity portfolio – Refinement of our methodology in Nov. 2006 – The correlation structure is now based on the estimation of correlation on log-returns, using appropriate methodologies More precise correlations between and among groups of commodities CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 26. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Portfolio Analysis • …And use CDO Evaluator with this adjusted correlation table CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 27. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Portfolio Analysis • STEP 3: Run the portfolio with the following settings… – Modified correlations assumptions, – Modified default assumptions, in order to apply corporate default assumptions – Standard number of simulations (500 000) CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 28. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Portfolio Analysis • STEP 4: Obtain the loss distribution of the commodity portfolio and deduct the appropriate level of subordination required to support the targeted CCO tranche CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 29. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Other New Products • Non Credit • FX Options • Interest Rate Indices • Interest Rate / Credit Mix • Credit • Operating Companies – CDPC/SIV • LSS of ABS CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 30. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Conclusions • A feature in the synthetic CDO market over the past couple of years has been the development spread-based and option-based products in the rating space • CPDO modelling depends on the following factors: • Defaults/Recoveries/Asset Correlation • Spread movements • Interest Rates/FX risks • Waterfall • S&P’s CPDO Index model was released March 2007 and Beta 2 released in April • Next generation of CPDO is the managed CPDO which required a much more refined approach to modelling rating transition and spread movements • Rising interest in non credit asset or option-based classes – CCO, FX CDO and IR Products CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 31. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Contact Information For further information please contact: Gloria Lu, CFA Associate Director gloria_lu@standardandpoors.com Tel: (+852) 2533-3596 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 32. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. “Most Influential Credit Ratings Agency in Asia” FinanceAsia Fixed Income Poll 2001 - 2006 Analytic services and products provided by Standard & Poor’s are the result of separate activities designed to preserve the independence and objectivity of each analytic process. Standard & Poor’s has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of non-public information received during each analytic CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. process. 33. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s.