Council on the Ageing
(Northern Territory) Inc.
Now you see us!
Policy and Economic Impacts from Rapid
Growth in the Number of Senior Territorians
Andrew Taylor, Huw Brokensha & Benxiang Zeng
andrew.taylor@cdu.edu.au
Acknowledgement
We remember and acknowledge the
late Robyn Lesley. In particular her
dedication to advocating for and
improving the wellbeing of older
Territorians and recognising the
challenges associated with meeting
the needs of this growing and
important part of the Territory’s
population.
We also thank and acknowledge…
 All of the people who participated in this study
(THE most important people of all)
 CEO Graeme Bevis, Deputy CEO Dean Dempsey
and all the dedicated hard working staff and
many volunteers at COTA NT.
 The past work of Professor Dean Carson,
Professor Ruth Wallace and Catherine Martell
(Northern Institute).
The Demography and Growth Planning theme
builds knowledge and expertise on the
relationships between the population structures
found in the Northern Territory and remote areas
elsewhere, and the economic and social
wellbeing of residents.
Today’s discussion
 What is population ageing ? What does it ‘look like’ for Australia?
 How and why is the Northern Territory different?
 What was the research all about?
 How was it conducted?
 What are some of the main findings?
 What might this all mean?
Population ageing:
Coming to a life near you !
 No official definition
 Usually described as a lower
ratio of people in the workforce
to those out of the workforce
ages (workforce = 15-65)
 Increasing median age
 A major global issue
Population ageing:
Why?
+
Living longer
Having less kids
Creating…
Life expectancies, Australia and Northern Territory
f=84.3
Life expectancy (years)
85
m=79.9
f (NT) =80.0
80
75
m (NT) =74.7
70
Australia males
65
Australia females
60
NT males
55
NT Females
50
Source: ABS (2014) 3105.0.65.001 Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014
2009-2011
2007-2009
2005-2007
2003-2005
2001-2003
1999-2001
1997-1999
1995-1997
1993-1995
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1976
1965-1967
1953-1955
1932-1934
1901-1910
1881-1890
45
and…
Total Fertility Rate, Australia and NT
4.5
4.0
Australia
Northern Territory
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
5.0
Source: ABS (2014) 3105.0.65.001 Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014
Note: TFR is the average number of births to women in child bearing ages (age 15 to 49 years)
But - extended ‘healthy years’ too
 Years living without a disability is increasing too
 Australia has the 4th highest ‘healthy life expectancy’ (after Spain,
South Korea and Switzerland)
 Growth has outstripped life expectancy improvements during 1998 to
2012
 An important point in the discourse on the negative economic burden
of seniors (e.g. the Intergenerational Report)
 Retirement ages increasing in line with this
Source: Commonwealth of Australia, 2010.
Why things are different in the NT
Indicator
Northern Territory
Australia or Rest of Australia (®)
Very young population
• Median age 31.4
• 5.6% aged 65+ (2011)
• 23% under 15 (Indigenous 32%)
• Median age 37.3®
• 14% aged 65+ (2011) ®
• 19% under 15yrs
High Indigenous share
• 30%
• 3% ®
Less urbanised
• 56% in Greater Darwin
• 67% in capital cities
Different net interstate
migration patterns
• Young in (20s), retirees out (55+) • Flatter migration age profiles
• Can’t retain women >> male
• More women than men (99 per
bias (109 per 100)
100)
Lowest life expectancies • 63.4 Indigenous and 77.8 others
82.1 overall
Sources:
Northern Territory Department of Treasury and Finance, 2014; ABS (2014) Cat. No. 3101.0, Regional Population Growth, Australia & AIHW (2014) Mortality and life expectancy of
Indigenous Australians
The Northern Territory outlook
Proportion aged 65 years and over, 1998 to 2041
Estimated
20%
Percent 65 and over
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
This chart tells us…
Projected
• Delayed onset of the
ageing ‘process’ in NT
• It’s going to be hard to
argue our case for $
• But the ‘gap’ is closing
(9% in 1998 to 7% 2041)
2%
Sources: Author calculations from ABS cat. no. 4102.0, Australian Social Trends, Data Cube – Population & Northern Territory Department of Treasury and Finance, 2014
Why?
 Less women in peak child bearing ages
(20-24 and 25-34)
 Postponement of first birth (increased
likelihood of remaining childless)
 Falling fertility rates – Indigenous (?)
 Ongoing life expectancy improvements
 Movement of a long-term resident’s
‘bubble’ of baby boomers into retirement
 ‘Ageing’ of migration profiles
Our unique ageing circumstance(s)
Projected proportion of NT population
aged 65 years and over, 2011 to 2041
242% increase
340% increase
Source: Northern Territory Department of Treasury and Finance, 2014
Hence the need for research…
 Despite being a global megatrend, ageing is occurring unevenly
across nations and between jurisdictions within these
 A set of demographic pre-cursors are in place for the Territory
signalling the onset of rapid growth in numbers and proportions
of seniors in our communities
 This is NEW TERRITORY (pardon the pun)!
 So it’s vital we understand seniors’ contributions and needs (from
their perspectives) in order to plan ahead
Survey background and methods
 Conducted in 2013/2014
 Co-developed survey instrument administered by COTA NT
 Online, paper based and interviews
 Target group: non-Indigenous aged 50+, Indigenous Territorians aged 45+
 1,864 valid responses
• Non-indigenous CI 95%, Margin of error 2.2 (est. population = 44,707)
• Indigenous responses disappointing and not representative (n=43)
 Analysis using SPSS, Excel and NVivo
Survey topics covered
 Demographics, residency and intentions to stay in or leave the Territory
 Employment and income
 Housing situation and needs
 Health and wellbeing, security and safety, and quality of life
 Caring and being cared for
 Intergenerational connections
 Transport and mobility
 Information and technology use
Get the full report…..
Council on the Ageing (NT) has the
full report of the results which can be
downloaded from their website at:
http://www.cotant.org.au
Results Part 1
Demographic Characteristics of participants
Age and gender of participants
35
30.5
Percentage (%)
30
27.9
25
56% (1037)
20
16.7
16.4
15
10
7.2
5
1.3
0
<= 59
60-64
65-69
70-74
Age group
>= 75
Not
Stated
44% (828)
Percentage
Regional distribution of participants
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Demography note:
60% of those aged
50+ lived in Darwin
in 2011
76.5%
14.5%
Greater Darwin
Alice Springs
Regions
5.7%
3.3%
NT towns
NT remote
Which State or Territory were you born in?
ACT
0.5%
Tas
2.6%
WA
7.1%
NT
5.7%
SA
18.2%
Qld
13.6%
NSW
29.3%
Vic
22.9%
Results Part 2
Three things you might not know about Territory seniors
Tech savvy seniors!
Preferred ways to receive everyday information
25
Percentage (%)
20
Level of competence in using computers
Very Low
12%
15
10
5
Good
44%
Very Good
24%
0
Low
20%
40% would like training in software applications, systems, and the internet and across a
range of hardware devices
Working seniors!
43% were employed
• 28% full-time
• 15% part-time
• 6% of all looking for
employment
Local
Other Government
5%
4%
C'wealth
Government
6%
Not for
Profit/Charity
10%
Self
Employed
14%
Indigenous
Organisation
3%
NT
Government
29%
Private
sector
29%
Volunteering
Volunteeringseniors!
seniors!
Hours per week
40% were
volunteering
 60% up to 5 hours
 26% for 5 to 10 hours
(15% for other ages)
 14% more than 10 hours
Results Part 3
The Territory as home?
Intergenerational connections
Stayers or leavers?
Over 21 % of participants
anticipated leaving the NT
by 2018 with most moving
interstate
Pre-retirees more likely to
leave:
49-59 years - 24%
60-64 years – 30%
Who might leave?
In my current
community,
71.1
80
Percentage
70
 Longer in NT = less likely
to leave
60
50
40
Leave the NT,
24.5
30
 But even a third of 10-14
year residents anticipate
living outside the
Territory in 5 years.
20
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
Years lived in the NT
Martell, C., Carson, D. and Taylor, A. (2013). Changing patterns of migration to Australia's Northern Territory:
Evidence of new forms of escalator migration to frontier regions? Migration Letters, Vol. 10(1), 91-100.
Results Part 4
Finances, health and safety
Concerns over costs and housing
 54% own their home, 23% are paying it off
(compared to 16% and 31% overall)
 But 1/3 might not have finances to support
current living arrangements in five years time
 72% worry about everyday expenses (60% of
these about housing)
 Cost of living (31%) main reason for leaving
the Territory
Health
 52% with health issues, 45% diagnosed
with a disease or chronic condition
 87% of those with a condition believed
it was being managed effectively by
health services and/or providers
 The majority (87%) use their local GPs
as usual medical service provider
 Only 8% receive a carer’s help (half from
a family member)
Safety and services
 A third (34%) had concerns about public transport (infrequent services,
distances between stops, and passengers’ bad behavior)
 20% feel unsafe or not very safe in their community.
2% feel threatened
 Suggestions for improvements for services:
• Two thirds said ‘NT concessions for seniors’
• ‘Improvements in aged care for those living at home’ (47%)
• Improvements in seniors’ health (43%) and dental services (39%)
• Safety and security improvements (39%)
 Quality of housing a high priority with improvements to aged care homes
(34%) and affordable housing for seniors (31%) prominent
In summary
Don’t panic! Seniors are good to have around because:
 Many work and many volunteer
 They care for family and friends
 They don’t commit crimes!
 They balance out our population
 Some own homes, have money and like spending it!
 They are embracing ‘young-uns’ technologies
 They have tacit and technical knowledge (social capital) and experience
 Most think they will stay in the Territory
Definitely some challenges
 Many want to and will leave (capital outflows). (Won’t stop the process)
 Three quarters are concerned about their expenses
 Cost of living features as a key theme, with housing the main problem
 One in ten don’t feel safe in their communities
 It’s difficult to attract ‘new’ seniors to the Territory
Broader challenges
 Funding – competing demands for all levels of government
 Indigenous ageing – especially in the context of remoteness and services
 Shifting perceptions of a ‘young Territory’
 Difficult messages: Ageing at similar rates to nationally but 30 years behind
 Who ‘owns’ ageing and are we ready?
 Appropriate and affordable housing solutions?
 Participation rates in the labour force – harness seniors’ skills
One approach - Age Friendly Communities
 World Health Organisation concept
 Widespread roll-out in Canada
 288 cities world wide, 10 in Australia
 Promote the diversity, inclusion, respect and
contributions of older people
 Focus on the aspects shown here
 More in the report and from COTA NT
Why it might be a good approach
 We can adopt and adapt aspects from elsewhere
 Goals and visions become agreed (hopefully!) and articulated
 Seniors get a say in designing communities
 Service providers know what to expect
 Quite simple messages and directions (not easy to deliver)
Recommendations – Research
 Repeat and enhance the survey every 3-5 years and increase responses
from Indigenous Territorians (needs funding)
 More in-depth research documenting seniors’ experiences and
identifying factors for retaining them in the Territory
 Produce a bi-annual report “Ageing in the Territory” which updates the
community, including seniors, on the latest statistics and trends from
the NT and elsewhere
 Work with the Northern Territory Department of Treasury and Finance
to develop household and other projections associated with the
growing seniors group (already lots done in this area)
Recommendations - Policy
 Be the first State or Territory with a Minister for Ageing?
 Enact processes towards developing age-friendly NT communities:
• Steal ideas from elsewhere and develop a checklist
• Fund councils and others to run assessments (somehow!)
• Fund councils and others for initiatives (somehow)
 Find innovative ways to celebrate Seniors’ contributions to help dispel myths
and build community awareness, as well as service provider networks
 Subsidise seniors’ living costs more (somehow)
Stay up to date
with our research
I should search engine:
“research
briefs NI”,
just to be cool
“If we knew what it
was we were doing,
it would not be called
research, would it?”
(Albert Einstein)
Thank you again to everyone who
helped with this research