Financial
markets
Selection of interest rates in the
US money market
per cent
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2005
2006
Policy rate
Chart 1:1
O/ N-rate
2007
3 month interbank rate
2008
2009
3 month treasury bill
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Difference between interbank rate and
expected policy rate
Basis points
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan-07
Jul-07
Sweden
Euro area
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
USA
UK
Note. In Sweden the spread is represented by the difference between
3 month Stibor and overnight index swap (STINA) rate
Chart 1.2
Source: Bloomberg
Selection of interest rates in the
euro area money market
per cent
6,0
5,0
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
2005
2006
Policy rate
Chart 1.3
O/ N-rate
2007
3 month interbank rate
2008
2009
3 month treasury bill rate
Source: Reuters Ecowin
Selection of interest rates in the
Swedish money market
per cent
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2005
2006
Policy rate
Chart 1.3
T/ N-rate
2007
3 month interbank rate
2008
0
2009
3 month treasury bill rate
Source: Reuters Ecowin
10 year government bond
yield
per cent
7
6
5
4
3
2
00
01
02
03
Sweden
Chart 1.5
04
05
Euro area
06
07
08
09
USA
Source: Reuters Ecowin
Total issued on the Swedish corporate
bond market
SEK Million
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1999
2000
2001
Quarter 1
Chart 1.6
2002
2003
Quarter 2
2004
2005
Quarter 3
2006
2007
2008
Quarter 4
Source: Bloomberg
Credit spreads for corporate bonds in
the US and the euro area
basis points
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
AAA - Euro area
Oct-07
Jan-08
BBB - Euro area
Apr-08
Jul-08
Aaa - USA
Oct-08
Jan-09
Baa - USA
Note. The spread between yield on corporate bond and the yield
on corresponding goverenment bond
Chart 1.7
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Credit spread for high-yield corporate
bonds in the US and the euro area
basis points
2400
2000
1600
1200
800
400
0
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
USA
Chart 1.8
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Euro area
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Global default rate
Per cent
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000
Chart 1:9
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Reuters EcoWin
2- and 5-year mortgage bond spread
the difference between mortgage bond yield and government
bond yield, basis points
200
160
120
80
40
0
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
2 year mortgage bond spread
Chart 1.10
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
5 year mortgage bond spread
Source: Reuters Ecowin
Premiums in CDS index
basis points
240
200
160
120
80
40
0
Jan-06
M ay-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
M ay-07
North America - CDX
Chart 1.11
Sep-07
Jan-08
M ay-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
Europe - iTraxx
Source: Reuters Ecowin & Bloomberg
Premiums in CDS for a selection of
banks
basis points
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Jan-07
Chart 1.12
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Deutsche Bank
SEB
M errill Lynch
Citibank
M organ Stanley
UBS
Oct-08
Jan-09
Source: Bloomberg
Premia in the CDS-index for
emerging markets
basis points
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Jan-07
Chart 1.13
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Source: Reuters Ecowin
Stock market development
Index, January 2007=100
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Sweden - OM XS30
Chart 1.14
Jan-08
Apr-08
Europe - STOXX
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
US - S&P 500
Source: Reuters Ecowin
Implied stock market volatility
per cent
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
00
01
02
03
Sweden - OM X
US - S&P 500
Chart 1.15
04
05
06
07
08
09
Europe - STOXX
Historical average, OM X
Source: Bloomberg
P/E-ratios
40
30
20
10
0
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sweden - OMXS30
Europe - STOXX
US - S&P 500
Historical average, Stoxx, OMXS30 and S&P 500
Chart 1.16
Source: Reuters Ecowin
Difference between mortgage bond
yield and government bond yield
basis points
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
Jan-08 Feb-08 M ar-08 Apr-08 M ay-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08
Swedbank
SEB
Handelsbanken
Nordea
Represents the difference between mortgage bonds with maturity in June 2011
and government bond with maturity March 2011
Chart B.1
Source: Reuters Ecowin
Current account as percentage of
GDP
Per cent
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
1997
Chart B2
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
H1
Source: Reuters EcoWin
CDS premiums for Icelandic
banks
basis points
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
dec
nov
okt
sep
aug
jul
0
2008
Kaupthing
Chart B3
Glitnir
Landsbanki
Icelandic government
Reference bank
Source: Bloomberg
Banking system’s assets as a percentage of
GDP
Per cent
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Domestic assets
Chart B4
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
H1
Foreign assets
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Development of the icelandic
krona against the euro
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
jan-03
Chart B5
jan-04
jan-05
jan-06
jan-07
jan-08
jan-09
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Swedish actors’ changed propensity
to take risk compared to six months
ago
3%
4%
21%
40%
Increased sharply
Increased somewhat
Neither increased or decreased
Decreased somewhat
Decreased sharply
Have no idea
32%
Figure R.6
Source: The Riksbank’s risk survey. Answer to the question: How has your propensity to take risk changed
compared to six months ago?
Swedish actors’ buffers of
liquid assets have increased
somewhat
11%
16%
5%
Increased sharply
Increased somewhat
Neither increased or decreased
18%
20%
Decreased somewhat
Decreased sharply
Have no idea
30%
Source: The Riksbank’s risk survey. Answer to the question: How has your institution’s buffer of liquid assets changed
Figure R.7 in relation to six months ago?
Do you consider that the
financial crisis has peaked?
16%
34%
Yes
No
Have no idea
50%
Source: The Riksbank’s risk survey. Answer to the question: ”Do you consider that the financial crisis has peaked?
Figure R.8
The Swedish
Household
Sector and
House Prices
The banks' lending broken down into
Swedish and foreign households and
companies,
Per cent
Swedish households
22%
Foreign companies
37%
Swedish companies
22%
Foreign households
19%
Note. Refers to total loan stock in September 2008.
Chart 2:1
Source: The Riksbank
Households' nominal disposable
income and saving ratio
Percentage change and per cent
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
94
96
98
00
02
Disposable income
04
06
08
10
Saving ratio
Note. Households' saving ratio is defined as households' savings in relation to disposable income.
Chart 2:2
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Household borrowing for purchase of
housing
Percentage change
SEK billion
20
40
16
32
12
24
8
16
4
8
0
0
05
06
New loans, volume (right scale)
Chart 2:3
07
08
Annual percentage change (left scale)
Source: The Riksbank
Households' debt ratio and interest
ratio
Per cent of disposable income
200
20
160
16
120
12
80
8
40
4
0
0
83
87
91
95
Debt ratio (left scale)
Chart 2:4
99
03
07
11
Interest ratio (right scale)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Mortgage rate, interbank rate and
repo rate
Per cent
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Average mortgage rate
Repo rate
Interbank rate
M ortgage institutions' new loans rate
09
Note. Refers to an average of the three month mortgage rate from Handelsbanken, Nordea, SBAB and SEB, the three month
interbank rate and the monthly average of the three month mortgage rates for new lending by the mortgage institutions.
Chart 2:5
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the
Duration of fixed interest periods
for new mortgage loans
Per cent
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
97
98
99
00
Variable rate
Chart 2:6
01
02
03
04
Fixed rate > 3 months
05
06
07
08
Fixed rate > 5 years
Source: The Riksbank
Households below the margin,
impaired loans and potential loan
losses
Per cent
8
6
4
2
0
2004
2005
2006
Households below the margin
2007
(preliminary
outcome)
Impaired loans
2008
(forecast)
2009
(forecast)
Potential loan losses
Note. Potential loan losses can not be calculated since the data does not contain values of households' total wealth.
Chart 2:7
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Percentage debt held by indebted
households in different income groups
Per cent
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Income group 1
Income group 2
Income group 3
Income group 4
Income group 5
Note. Income group 1 consists of the indebted households with the lowest disposable income and income group 5 consists
of the indebted households with the highest disposable income.
Chart 2:8
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
House prices
Index: 1986=100
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
86
88
90
Sweden
Chart 2:9
92
94
96
Stockholm region
98
00
02
Göteborg region
04
06
08
M almö region
Source: Statistics Sweden
Tenant-owned apartment
prices
SEK per square metre
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
02
03
Sweden
Stockholm region
M almö region
Chart 2:10
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sweden exclusive metropolitan areas
Göteborg region
Source: www.maklarstatistik.se
Housing investment in relation to
GDP, seasonally adjusted
Per cent
12
8
4
0
97
99
Sweden
Chart 2:11
01
Norway
03
Denmark
05
United Kingdom
07
Spain
09
USA
Sources: Statistics Sweden, national statistics offices and the Riksbank
Number of housing starts in
relation to population
Per cent
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
81
84
Sweden
87
90
Norway
93
Denmark
96
99
United Kingdom
02
05
Spain
08
USA
Note. The number of housing starts in Sweden during 2006 and 2007 is overestimated , as a result of the "Odell foundation
slabs" (Odellplattorna); the actual number of housing starts was much lower, according to the National Board of Housing,
Building and Planning.
Chart 2:12
Source: Reuters EcoWin
The Swedish
Corporate Sector
Profitability in Swedish companies
Per cent
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
dec-99
Chart 2:13
dec-00
dec-01
dec-02
dec-03
dec-04
dec-05
dec-06
dec-07
dec-08
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbanken
The number of company bankruptcies broken
down by company size
Twelve-month moving average
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
All companies
Chart 2:14
1-9 employees
jan-09
jan-07
jan-05
jan-03
jan-01
jan-99
jan-97
jan-95
jan-93
jan-91
jan-89
jan-87
jan-85
jan-83
0
10-49 employees
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Corporate borrowing from credit
institutions
Annual percentage change
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
97
Chart 2:15
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: The Riksbank
Corporate borrowing from credit institutions and
their securities funding in Sweden and abroad
SEK billion
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Chart 2:16
Swedish credit institutions
Interest bearing securities in Sweden
Foreign credit institutions
Interest bearing securities abroad
sep-08
mar-08
sep-07
mar-07
sep-06
mar-06
sep-05
mar-05
sep-04
mar-04
sep-03
mar-03
sep-02
mar-02
sep-01
mar-01
sep-00
mar-00
sep-99
mar-99
sep-98
Mar-98
0
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Corporate borrowing from credit
institutions and gross fixed capital
investments
Annual percentage change
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Corporate borrowing from credit institutions
Forecast
Chart 2:17
mar-11
mar-10
mar-09
mar-08
mar-07
mar-06
mar-05
mar-04
mar-03
mar-02
mar-01
mar-00
mar-99
mar-98
-10
Gross fixed capital investments
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbanken
Debt/total assets ratio in Swedish listed companies
Per cent
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
dec-98
Chart 2:18
dec-99
dec-00
dec-01
dec-02
dec-03
dec-04
dec-05
dec-06
dec-07
dec-08
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbanken
The four major banks’ lending rates on new loans
signed by non-financial companies
Per cent
6
5
4
3
2
1
Chart 2:19
sep-08
jun-08
mar-08
dec-07
sep-07
jun-07
mar-07
dec-06
sep-06
jun-06
mar-06
dec-05
sep-05
0
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Interest coverage ratio in Swedish listed companies
Ratio
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
jun-00
Chart 2:20
jun-01
jun-02
jun-03
jun-04
jun-05
jun-06
jun-07
jun-08
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbanken
Current ratio in Swedish listed companies
Per cent
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
Chart 2:21
dec-08
dec-07
dec-06
dec-05
dec-04
dec-03
dec-02
dec-01
dec-00
dec-99
dec-98
130
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbanken
Corporate credit quality measured by expected
default frequency (EDF), historical outcomes and
forecasts according to the Riksbank’s main scenario
Per cent
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1997
1998
Chart 2:22
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Sources: Moody’s KMV och the Riksbank
Commercial
property
Prices of office premises
Sweden, UK, Ireland, USA
Annual percentage change
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
83
85
87
89
91
Sweden
Chart 2:23
93
95
UK
97
99
01
Ireland
03
05
07
09
USA
Sources: IPD, Reuters EcoWin, MIT Center for Real Estate, Newsec and the Riksbank
Real prices of office premises in city
centres
Index: 1981=100
500
400
300
200
100
0
82
85
88
91
94
Stockholm
Chart 2:24
97
Göteborg
00
03
06
09
M almö
Sources: Newsec and the Riksbank
Vacancy rate for office premises in city
centres
Per cent
25
20
15
10
5
0
91
93
95
97
Stockholm
Chart 2:25
99
01
Göteborg
03
05
07
09
M almö
Sources: Newsec and the Riksbank
Real prices and rents for office
premises in Stockholm city centre
Annual percentage change
40
20
0
-20
-40
83
86
89
92
95
Prices
Chart 2:26
98
01
04
07
Rents
Sources: Newsec and the Riksbank
Required return on office premises in
the United Kingdom
Per cent
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
90
Chart 2:27
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Sources: IPD and Reuters EcoWin
Average required direct return for
modern office premises in city centres
Per cent
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
82
84
86
Stockholm
Chart 2:28
88
90
92
Göteborg
94
96
M almö
98
00
02
04
06
08
Five-year government bond
Sources: Newsec and Reuters EcoWin
The Swedish
banks’
borrowers
abroad
Geographical breakdown of
the major banks’ lending
Rest of the world 16%
Germany 6%
Sweden 47%
The Baltic countries 4%
Other Nordic countries 27%
Chart 2:29
Source: The Riksbanken
House prices in the Nordic countries
Annual percentage change
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
dec-99
dec-00
dec-01
dec-02
Sweden
Chart 2:30
dec-03
Norway
dec-04
Denmark
dec-05
dec-06
dec-07
dec-08
Finland
Source: Reuters EcoWin and the BIS
Borrowing by companies i Nordic countries
index 2006=100
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
jan-06
apr-06
jul-06
okt-06
jan-07
apr-07
Finland
Chart 2.31
jul-07
Denmark
okt-07
jan-08
apr-08
jul-08
okt-08
Norway
Source: Reuters Ecowin
Expected default frequency for listed
non-financial companies (EDF)
Per cent
10
1
0,1
0,01
sep-03
Chart 2:32
sep-04
sep-05
Sweden
Finland
sep-06
Norway
Germany
sep-07
sep-08
Denmark
Source: Moody’s KMV
House prices in Germany and
abroad
index 2000=100
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
mar-00
mar-01
mar-02
mar-03
Sweden
Chart 2:33
mar-04
mar-05
Germany
USA
mar-06
mar-07
mar-08
UK
Source: Reuters EcoWin
The Baltic
countries
GDP growth
Annual percentage change
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
dec-99
dec-00
dec-01
dec-02
Estonia
Chart 2:34
dec-03
Latvia
dec-04
dec-05
dec-06
dec-07
dec-08
Lithuania
Source: Reuters Ecowin
Consumer Confidence Indicator
Net figures, per cent
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Estonia
Chart 2:35
Latvia
jan-09
jan-08
jan-07
jan-06
jan-05
-40
Lithuania
Sources: European Commission and Reuters
Ecowin
Current account
Percentage of GDP, totalled over four quarters
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
dec-00
dec-01
dec-02
dec-03
Estonia
Chart 2:36
dec-04
Latvia
dec-05
dec-06
dec-07
dec-08
Lithuania
Source: Reuters Ecowin
Number of job vacancies
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
Estonia
Chart 2:37
Latvia
jun-08
mar-08
dec-07
sep-07
jun-07
mar-07
dec-06
sep-06
jun-06
mar-06
dec-05
sep-05
jun-05
mar-05
0
Lithuania
Source: Reuters Ecowin
Real wages
Quarterly change, seasonally adjusted on an annual rate
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Estonia
Chart 2:38
Latvia
dec-08
dec-07
dec-06
dec-05
dec-04
dec-03
dec-02
dec-01
dec-00
dec-99
-10
Lithuania
Sources: Reuters Ecowin and Riksbank calculations
Harmonised index for consumer
prices
Annual percentage change
18
15
12
9
6
3
0
-3
00
01
02
03
Estonia
Chart 2:39
04
05
Latvia
06
07
08
09
Lithuania
Source: Reuters Ecowin
Household borrowing in the Baltic
countries
Annual percentage change
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
jan-01
jan-02
jan-03
jan-04
Estonia
Chart 2:40
jan-05
Latvia
jan-06
jan-07
jan-08
Lithuania
Sources: Reuters Ecowin and national central banks
Corporate borrowing in the Baltic
countries
Annual percentage change
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
01
02
03
Estonia
Chart 2:41
04
05
Latvia
06
07
08
Lithuania
Sources: Reuters Ecowin and national central banks
Households´ and companies´ debt in
relation to GDP
Per cent
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Estonia
Chart 2:42
Latvia
Lithuania
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
0
Sweden
Sources: Reuters Ecowin and national central banks
Developments
in the banks
Profit before loan losses and loan
losses (net) in the major banks
Summed up over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices, 2008-09-30
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
Dec-90
Dec-92
Dec-94
Dec-96
Dec-98
Profit before loan losses
Chart 3:1
Dec-00
Dec-02
Dec-04
Dec-06
Dec-08
Loan losses
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Income and costs for the major
Swedish banks
The last four-quarter period compared with the preceding four quarters, SEK
billion
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
-75
Net interest
income
Net comission
income
Net results of
financial
operations
Other income
Personnelrelated costs
Other costs
2006Q4 - 2007Q3
87,0
52,2
21,3
10,3
-53,6
-34,8
2007Q4 - 2008Q3
102,0
48,5
13,5
9,8
-57,2
-37,8
Chart 3:2
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The development of income and costs and
the gap between their rates of growth
Per cent and percentage points, rolling four quarters
16
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
06:1
06:2
06:3
06:4
07:1
Gap (percentage points)
Chart 3:3
07:2
07:3
Income
07:4
08:1
08:2
08:3
Costs
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Cost efficiency of the major banks
Per cent
70
60
50
40
95
96
97
98
99
00
C/I ratio
Chart 3:4
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
C/I ratio according to IFRS
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
and net interest income since
2005
Growth rate, rolling four quarters, per cent
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
kv1
kv2
kv3
2005
kv4
kv1
kv2
2006
Net interest income
Chart 3:5
kv3
kv4
kv1
kv2
kv3
2007
kv4
kv1
2008
Net commission income
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The major banks’ securities-related
commission income and OMX turnover and
index
Index: 2003 Q1=100
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
kv1 kv2 kv3 kv4 kv1 kv2 kv3 kv4 kv1 kv2 kv3 kv4 kv1 kv2 kv3 kv4 kv1 kv2 kv3 kv4 kv1
03
04
05
06
07
08
Asset management-related income
OMX index
Brokerage income
OMX turnover
Chart 3:6
Sources: Bank reports, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Spread between covered bonds
and swap rate
Basis points
120
80
40
0
-40
-80
Jan06
Apr06
Jul06
Oct06
Jan07
Apr07
Jul07
Oct07
Jan08
Apr08
Jul08
Oct08
Jan09
Spread between 2-year covered bond and 2-year swap rate
Spread between 5-year covered bond and 5-year swap rate
Chart B9
Source: Bloomberg
Spread between the major banks' Swedish
mortgage loans and a three-month swap
rate
Basis points
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Chart B10
Sep-08
Mar-08
Sep-07
Mar-07
Sep-06
Mar-06
Sep-05
Mar-05
Sep-04
Mar-04
Sep-03
Mar-03
Sep-02
0
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Bank shares’ implied volatility
10-day moving average, per cent
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
99
00
01
SEB
Chart 3:7
02
03
04
Handelsbanken
05
06
Nordea
07
08
09
Swedbank
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
Share price development in the Swedish
major banks and the European financial
sector
Index: 2007-07-01 = 100
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Ju
l -0
Au 7
g0
Se 7
p07
O
ct
-0
N 7
ov
-0
D 7
ec
-0
7
Ja
n0
Fe 8
b0
M 8
ar
-0
8
Ap
r-0
M 8
ay
-0
8
Ju
n08
Ju
l -0
Au 8
g0
Se 8
p08
O
ct
-0
N 8
ov
-0
D 8
ec
-0
8
20
SEB
Chart 3:8
Handelsbanken
Nordea
Swedbank
Europa
Sources: OMX and Reuters EcoWin
Market shares in the Baltic
countries
Per cent, September 2008
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Estonia
Swedbank
Chart 3:9
Latvia
SEB
Lithuania
Nordea
Övriga
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Lending per segment
SEK billion, September 2008
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
Chart 3:10
Household mortgages
Household consumption
Nordea
SEB
Handelsbanken
Swedbank
Property management companies Other companies
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The Major banks’ credit losses per
quarter
Percentage of lending to the public
0,3
0,4
0,2
0,2
0,1
0,0
0,0
-0,2
-0,1
-0,4
-0,2
-0,6
-0,3
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0,6
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Actual and probable loan losses
Totala loan losses, net (right scale)
Chart 3:11
2005
2006
2007
2008
Recoveries and reversals
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Tier 1 capital ratios
Per cent
12
10
8
6
SEB
Handelsbanken
Nordea
8
D
ec
-0
7
D
ec
-0
6
D
ec
-0
5
D
ec
-0
4
D
ec
-0
3
D
ec
-0
2
D
ec
-0
1
D
ec
-0
0
D
ec
-0
9
D
ec
-9
8
ec
-9
D
D
ec
-9
7
4
Swedbank
Note. Swedbank’s ratio includes a guaranteed rights issue of SEK 12.4 billion.
Chart 3:12
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The banks' source of
funding
Percentage of total funding
Debt securities
issued
40%
Deposits from
general public
48%
Borrowing,
interbank
7%
Liquidity supplied
by the Riksbank
and the SNDO
5%
Note: The item “Liquidity supplied by the Riksbank and the SNDO” includes the four major banks’ share
of the sums loaned in the Riksbank’s SEK and USD auctions, the SNDO’s reverse repos in connection
with its extra auctions of treasury bills and the securities that the banks have issued with State
guarantees. It is assumed that the supply of liquidity will replace part of the banks’ funding. Issued
securities have therefore been reduced by the corresponding sums in the chart.
Chart 3:13
Source: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Maturity of outstanding bonds
Percentage of issued securities
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
SEB
2009
Chart 3:14
Nordea
Handelsbanken
2010
Swedbank
2011
Sources: Bank reports, Bloomberg and the Riksbank
The banks’ deposits and lending
SEK billion
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
01:1
02:1
03:1
Lending
Chart 3:15
04:1
05:1
Deposits
06:1
07:1
08:1
Deposit deficit
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The major bank with the lowest Tier 1 capital ratio
after another Swedish major bank defaulted on
payments
Per cent
6
5
4
3
2
99
Chart 3:16
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: The
The size of the exposures in
relation to Tier 1 capital
Per cent
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
Chart B11
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Source: The
Counterparty exposures, shares
of total exposures
Per cent
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
Other lending without collateral
Chart B12
2004
2005
Securities, gross
2006
2007
2008
H1
Derivatives, gross
Source: The
SEB and Swedbank’s credit risk cover, year 3,
according to the scenario on a deterioration
in creditworthiness in the Baltic countries
Per cent
250
200
150
100
50
0
Swedbank
SEB
2007 Q2
Chart 3:17
2007 Q4
2008 Q2
Source: The
Credit risk cover, year 3, according to the scenario on an
economic downturn
Per cent
250
200
150
100
50
0
SEB
Swedbank
2007Q2
Chart 3:18
Nordea
2007Q4
Handelsbanken
2008Q2
Source: The
Combined stress test
Base case
a) Sweden
b) Baltic countries
c) Rest of the world*
Lending, SEK billion
3 095
318
3 031
% of exposure assumed to
0.6 % property companies
default Probability of default, 0.4 % other companies &
PD
households
Loss Given Default
20 %
2.6 % property companies
2 % other companies &
households
60 %
0.5 % all borrowers
Reserve requirement, SEK
billion Expected Loss, EL
4
6
Reserve requirement as
0.08 %
percentage of lending
* Primarily other Nordic countries
1.26 %
0.20 %
Stress scenario
a) Sweden
b) Baltic countries
c) Rest of the world*
Lending, SEK billion
3 095
318
3 031
% of exposure assumed to
6 % property companies
default Probability of default, 3 % other companies &
PD
households
Loss Given Default
20 %
20 % property companies
10 % other companies &
households
60 %
6 % property companies
3 % other companies &
households
40 %
Reserve requirement, SEK
billion Expected Loss, EL
Reserve requirement as
percentage of lending
22
22
33
0.7 %
12 % property companies
6 % other companies &
households
1.1 %
2.5
* Primarily other Nordic countries
40 %
Combined stress test –
results
Base case
a) Sweden
a)
22
b) Baltic countries
a)+b)
44
C) Rest of the world
a)+c)
55
Combined scenario, a)+b)+c)
77
* Primarily other Nordic countries
a)
b) Baltic countries
c) Rest of the world*
b)
22
b)+c)
55
c)
33
Sweden
Increased financing costs in a 3-month
liquidity crisis as a percentage of Q2 profits
Per cent
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Handelsbanken
Chart 3:19
SEB
Nordea
Swedbank
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
EXTRA
Some useful metrics

Household margins

The amount of income left for a household after minimum
expenditures needed for food and clothing, interest rates and
non-interest related housing expenditures have been paid.

Margin for household k: Mk =Disposable incomek –(base
amount)*(household sizek ) –(interest expendituresk) –(other
housing expenditures of the income decile)

In 2006 the base amount was 39 700 SEK.
Some useful metrics, cont

Exposure at default (EAD):


The share of total debt held by vulnerable
households
Loss given default (LGD):

The share of total debt, held by vulnerable
debts, that is not covered by assets
4. SEB and Swedbank’s credit risk cover
according to the scenario on a deterioration
in creditworthiness in the Baltic countries,
Q2 2008, Per cent
SEB
300
Swedbank
250
200
150
100
50
0
year0
year1
jan/00year2
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
year3
year0
year2
year1jan/00
year3
5. Credit risk cover according to the
scenario on an economic downturn, Q2
2008 Per cent
300
SEB
Handelsbanken
Nordea
Swedbank
year0 year1
year2 year3
jan/00
year0 year1
year2 year3
jan/00
year0 year1
year2 year3
jan/00
year0 year1
year2 year3
jan/00
250
200
150
100
50
0
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank