Links between Toxic in the Air and Children’s
School Performance
Presented by
Dr. Byoung-Suk Kweon, University of Maryland
Other Principal Investigator
Dr. Paul Mohai, University of Michigan
Post-doctoral Research Fellow
Dr. Sangyun Lee, University of Michigan
Sponsor
The Kresge Foundation
June 20, 2012
Article in Health Affairs examining air pollution burdens
from industrial sources around schools available at:
(http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/30/5.toc)
Locations of 3660 public schools in the State of
Michigan
Locations of 594 RSEI facilities in the State of
Michigan
Total toxic concentration contours in the state of
Michigan (2006 RSEI)
Contours based on accumulated area of 1 km by 1 km grid cells in ascending order
of total toxic concentration from 2006 Risk Screening Environmental Indicator
Total toxic concentration contours in the state of
Michigan (2006 RSEI and Top 10 Percentile)
Contours based on accumulated area of 1 km by 1 km grid cells in ascending order
of total toxic concentration from 2006 Risk Screening Environmental Indicator
Estimating toxic air concentrations from industrial
sources within 2 km of schools using areal
apportionment
Mean air toxic concentration within 2 km circle of the school =
n
∑=1%CGi * TCi
i
%CGi = Percent of area of the 2 km circle captured by grid celli
TCi = Total toxic concentration in grid celli
Top 12 chemicals in areas within 2 km of schools
Develop Cardiov Carcino Respirat Neurolo
mental ascular genic
ory
gical
Diisocyanates
Yes
Manganese
Yes
Sulfuric Acid
Yes
Nickel
Yes
Chlorine
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Cobalt
Glycol Ethers
Yes
Yes
Chromium
Trimethylbenzene
Hydrochloric
Acid
Molybdenum
trioxide
Lead
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Data obtained from Scorecard: http://www.scorecard.org.
8
Changes in median air toxic concentrations,
1999-2006
450
360
270
180
90
0
1999
Michigan
2000
2001
Metro
2002
Detroit
2003
2004
Schools (Metro)
2005
2006
Schools (DET)
Schools (Metro) = areas within 2 km of schools in Detroit Metro Area
Schools (DET) = areas within 2 km of schools in Detroit
Deciles of total toxic concentration in Michigan and
school-based demographics
Deciles of TC
by land area
(sq km)
1st Decile
2nd Decile
3rd Decile
4th Decile
5th Decile
6th Decile
7th Decile
8th Decile
9th Decile
10th Decile
Total
Schools
%
65
1.8
78
2.1
95
2.6
147
4.0
182
5.0
233
6.4
268
7.3
305
8.3
514
14.0
1773
48.4
3,660
All
Students
African
Students in
White
Hispanic
American
Free Lunch
Students
Students
Students
Program
%
%
%
16,754
13,228
170
1.0
1.1
0.1
23,118
21,793
193
1.4
1.9
0.1
32,269
30,354
337
2.0
2.6
0.1
50,165
46,124
1173
3.1
4.0
0.4
71,208
63,349
2074
4.4
5.5
0.6
100,045
89,117
4064
6.1
7.7
1.3
109,229
87,444
14,545
6.7
7.5
4.5
129,906 113,023
8,315
8.0
9.7
2.6
233,399 181,574 28,641
14.3
15.6
8.9
863,629 515,839 262,685
53.0
44.4
81.5
1,629,722 1,161,845 322,197
%
129
0.2
405
0.5
537
0.7
1370
1.8
3,274
4.3
3,921
5.2
3,946
5.2
4,700
6.2
10,413
13.8
47,046
62.1
75,741
%
5732
1.2
7,043
1.5
9,441
2.0
11,666
2.4
15,978
3.3
21,319
4.4
28,470
5.9
30,525
6.4
51,645
10.7
298,984
62.2
480,803
Total toxic concentration estimates are based on 2006 Risk Screening Environmental
Indicator (RSEI) data.
Schools whose toxic concentration (TC) are
greater than their districts’
Deciles of TC by
school
%Schools whose TCs Ave. TC of
exceed their Districts’ Schools
TC of
District
1st Decile
0.00%
N.A.
N.A.
2nd Decile
10.26%
0.62
0.48
3rd Decile
11.58%
1.25
0.80
4th Decile
17.69%
2.88
1.16
5th Decile
19.23%
4.91
2.11
6th Decile
40.77%
8.54
2.54
7th Decile
31.34%
13.82
4.13
8th Decile
39.34%
20.88
6.96
9th Decile
63.42%
37.01
13.81
10th Decile
91.54%
229.40
22.46
Total toxic concentrations based on 2006 RSEI-GM and are within 2 km of schools.
11
Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards for
English by percentiles of total toxic concentration
MEAP scores are for 2007. Pollution estimates come from 2006 RSEI. Percent
of students not meeting MEAP standards are based on averages across all
schools in Michigan.
Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards for
math by percentiles of total toxic concentration
MEAP scores are for 2007. Pollution estimates come from 2006 RSEI. Percent
of students not meeting MEAP standards are based on averages across all
schools in Michigan.
Regression analysis of percent of students not
meeting 2007 MEAP standards by total toxic
concentration from 2006 RSEI
English
N=2574
Total TC
(1-58)
Total TC
(59-86)
Total TC
(87+)
Math
Model 1
Model 2
Model 1
Model 2
Beta
Beta
Beta
Beta
—
—
—
—
0.20***
0.07***
0.18***
0.06***
0.39***
0.07***
0.37***
0.08***
Rural areas
—
—
Central cities
0.09***
0.08***
Suburbs
0.06**
0.01
Student attendance
rates
Total Expenditure per
pupil (district)
-0.10***
-0.11***
-0.01
0.00
#Students
0.07***
0.13***
Student/Teacher Ratio
0.03
0.05***
%Free lunch students
0.66***
0.56***
R2
0.151***
* P < .05; ** P < .01; *** P < .001
0.573***
0.132***
0.479***
Respiratory risk contours in the state of Michigan
(2005 National Air Toxics Assessment)
Contours based on accumulated area (in square kilometers) of census tracts in
ascending order of respiratory risk estimates from 2005 NATA
Respiratory risk contours in the state of Michigan
(2005 NATA and Top 10 Percentile)
Contours based on accumulated area (in square kilometers) of census tracts in
ascending order of respiratory risk estimates from 2005 NATA
Estimating cancer risk within 2 km of schools using
areal apportionment
Mean cancer risk within 2 km circle of the school =
n
∑=1%CTi * CRi
i
%CTi = Percent of the area of the circle captured by the tracti
CRi = Cancer risk for the tracti
Deciles of respiratory risk in Michigan and schoolbased demographics
Deciles of
respiratory
risk by land
area (sq km)
1st Decile
2nd Decile
3rd Decile
4th Decile
5th Decile
6th Decile
7th Decile
8th Decile
9th Decile
10th Decile
Total
Schools
%
29
0.8
23
0.6
44
1.2
105
2.9
97
2.7
144
3.9
197
5.4
289
7.9
484
13.2
2248
61.4
3,660
All
Students
African
Students in
White
Hispanic
American
Free Lunch
Students
Students
Students
Program
%
%
%
4,986
3,876
26
0.3
0.3
0.0
5,618
4,681
35
0.3
0.4
0.0
10,083
9,230
86
0.6
0.8
0.0
25,863
23,950
220
1.6
2.1
0.1
29,960
28,073
347
1.8
2.4
0.1
43,507
40,567
696
2.7
3.5
0.2
66,021
60,557
771
4.1
5.2
0.2
108,515
98,786
2,289
6.7
8.5
0.7
208,595 188,342
7,260
12.8
16.2
2.3
1,126,574 703,783 310,467
69.1
60.6
96.4
1,629,722 1,161,845 322,197
%
27
0.0
34
0.0
57
0.1
384
0.5
624
0.8
1,267
1.7
3,047
4.0
4,759
6.3
7,513
9.9
58,029
76.6
75,741
%
1264
0.3
2,073
0.4
2,971
0.6
9,180
1.9
9,606
2.0
14,787
3.1
18,647
3.9
26,214
5.5
43,518
9.1
352,543
73.3
480,803
Respiratory risk estimates are based on 2005 NATA and include major, area, on-road
mobile, non-road mobile, and background sources
Percentage of schools whose respiratory risk
ratios are greater than their districts’
Deciles of RRR by
school
%Schools whose
RRRs exceed their
Districts’
Ave. RRR of
Schools
RRR of
District
1st Decile
18.31%
0.561
0.462
2nd Decile
39.34%
1.015
0.565
3rd Decile
47.27%
1.502
0.724
4th Decile
63.39%
1.965
0.952
5th Decile
63.93%
2.578
1.273
6th Decile
74.59%
3.455
1.474
7th Decile
81.97%
4.436
2.040
8th Decile
93.72%
5.719
1.798
9th Decile
100%
6.966
1.080
10th Decile
100%
8.269
0.913
Respiratory risk ratio is based on 2002 NATA and includes major, area, on-road19
mobile, non-road mobile, and background sources
Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards for
English by percentiles of total respiratory risk
MEAP scores are for 2007. Pollution estimates come from 2005 NATA. Percent
of students not meeting MEAP standards are based on averages across all
schools in Michigan.
Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards for
math by percentiles of total respiratory risk
MEAP scores are for 2007. Pollution estimates come from 2005 NATA. Percent
of students not meeting MEAP standards are based on averages across all
schools in Michigan.
Regression analysis of percent of students not
meeting 2007 MEAP standards by total respiratory
risk from 2005 NATA
English
N=2574
Total respiratory risk
(1-53)
Total respiratory risk
(54-82)
Total respiratory risk
(83+)
Math
Model 1
Model 2
Model 1
Model 2
Beta
Beta
Beta
Beta
—
—
—
—
0.12***
0.03*
0.11***
0.02
0.43***
0.11***
0.39***
0.11***
Rural areas
—
—
Central cities
0.09***
0.08***
Suburbs
0.06**
0.01
Student attendance
rates
Total Expenditure per
pupil (district)
-0.16***
#Students
-0.17***
-0.01
0.00
-0.03*
0.05**
Student/Teacher Ratio
0.05***
0.07***
%Free lunch students
0.63***
0.53***
R2
0.168***
* P < .05; ** P < .01; *** P < .001
0.629***
0.139***
0.504***
Michigan school siting factors
Norton, 2008
Policy implications
• Ensure cooperation among federal,
state and local agencies
• Analyze potential school sites
• Require minimum distances
between schools and
environmental hazards
• Adopt environmental mitigation
policies