Cash Flows and Financial Analysis Chapter 3 © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning Financial Information—Where Does It Come From, etc. Financial information is the responsibility of management Created by within-firm accountants Creates a conflict of interest because management wants to portray firm in a positive light Published to a variety of audiences 2 Users of Financial Information Investors and Financial Analysts Vendors/Creditors Financial analysts interpret information about companies and make recommendations to investors Major part of analyst’s job is to make a careful study of recent financial statements Use financial info to determine if the firm is expected to make good on loans Management Use financial info to pinpoint strengths and weaknesses in operations 3 Sources of Financial Information Annual Report Required of all publicly traded firms Tend to portray firm in a positive light Also publish a less glossy, more businesslike document called a 10K with the SEC Brokerage firms and investment advisory services (Value Line Investment Survey) 4 The Orientation of Financial Analysis Accounting is concerned with creating financial statements Finance is concerned with using the data contained within financial statements to make decisions The orientation of financial analysis is critical and investigative 5 The Statement of Cash Flows Income doesn’t represent cash in the firm’s pocket The Statement of Cash Flows (AKA: Statement of Changes in Financial Position) provides info on the actual movement of cash in and out of the company Constructed from the Balance Sheet and Income Statement 6 How the Statement of Cash Flows Works—Preliminary Examples Requires two consecutive balance sheets and one income statement from which the statement of cash flows is generated Takes net income for the period and makes adjustments Then takes the balance sheet items and examines the changes 7 Business Cash Flows Cash Flows Rules The following rules can be applied to any business’s financial statements • • • • Asset increase use of cash Asset decrease source of cash Liability increase source of cash Liability decrease use of cash 8 Business Cash Flows Standard Presentation Statement of Cash Flows organized to show • Operating activities • Running business on day-to-day basis • Investing activities • When firm buys or sells things to do business • Includes long-term purchases and sales of financial assets • Financing activities • When firm borrows money, pays off loans, sells stock or pays dividends 9 Constructing the Statement of Cash Flows Belfry Company Belfry Company Balance Sheet For the period ended 12/31/X2 Assets Income Statement For the period ended 12/31/X2 Sales COGS Gross margin $ $ $ 10,000 6,000 4,000 Expense Depreciation EBIT Interest EBT Tax Net Income $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 1,600 500 1,900 400 1,500 500 1,000 12/31/X1 12/31/X2 1,000 1,400 3,000 2,900 2,000 3,200 6,000 7,500 Cash Accounts receivable Inventory CURRENT ASSETS Fixed assets Gross Accumulated deprec. Net TOTAL ASSETS 4,000 (1,000) 3,000 9,000 6,000 (1,500) 4,500 12,000 Accounts payable Accruals CURRENT LIABILITIES Long-term debt Equity TOTAL CAPITAL 1,500 500 2,000 5,000 2,000 7,000 2,100 400 2,500 6,200 3,300 9,500 TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 9,000 12,000 Liabilities Also assume firm paid a $500 dividend and sold stock for $800 during the year. 10 Constructing the Statement of Cash Flows Operating Activities Involve the Income Statement and current Balance Sheet accounts Involves activities firm does on a day-to-day basis such as • • • • Buying inventory Producing and selling product Paying expenses and taxes Collecting credit sales Focus of activities is generating net income—the beginning of a cash flow statement. Money from operating transactions runs through current balance sheet accounts 11 Constructing the Statement of Cash Flows Thus, for Belfry the cash from Operating Activities is Net Income + Depreciation = Operating Income + decrease in Receivables $1,000 $500 $1,500 $100 - increase in Inventory ($1,200) + increase in Payables $600 - decrease in Accruals ($100) Cash from operating activities $900 12 Constructing the Statement of Cash Flows Investing Activities Typically include purchasing Fixed Assets Examine the change in GROSS Fixed Assets, not net • Because the net value includes an adjustment for depreciation • Depreciation has already been included under operating activities Thus, for Belfry the cash from investing activities is • Purchase of Fixed Assets ($2,000) 13 Constructing the Statement of Cash Flows Financing Activities Deal with the capital accounts, long-term debt and equity Thus, for Belfry the cash from financing activities is Increase in long-term debt Sale of stock $1,200 $800 Dividend paid ($500) Cash from financing activities $1,500 14 Constructing the Statement of Cash Flows The Equity and Cash Accounts The change in equity is not included because the changes are reflected elsewhere in the Statement of Cash Flows • Net Income is included in Cash Flows from Operations • Sale of stock and dividends are considered under financing activities The change in the cash account isn’t considered because the sum of cash flows from operations, financing activities and investing activities must equal the change in the cash account 15 Constructing the Statement of Cash Flows Thus, for Belfry, the final portion of the Statement is Beginning Cash Balance Net cash flow Ending Cash Balance $1,000 400 $1,400 16 Constructing the Statement of Cash Flows Belfry Company Statement of Cash Flows For the period ended 12/31/X2 CASH FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES Net income Depreciation Net changes in current accounts Cash from operating activities CASH FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES Purchase of fixed assets CASH FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES Increase in long-term debt Sale of stock Dividend paid Cash from financing activities NET CASH FLOW Beginning cash balance Net cash flow Ending cash balance $ $ $ $ 1,000 500 (600) 900 $ (2,000) $ $ $ $ $ 1,200 800 (500) 1,500 400 $ $ $ 1,000 400 1,400 While the firm was profitable, it still had to borrow money and sell stock to finance the increase in Fixed Assets. 17 Free Cash Flows Refers to cash generated beyond reinvestment needs Under normal conditions most firms generate positive cash flow from operations Some of these funds are used to maintain long-run competitive position • Replace worn-out fixed assets • Pay dividends on Preferred Stock 18 Ratio Analysis Used to highlight different areas of performance Involves taking sets of numbers from the financial statement and forming ratios with them 19 Comparisons Ratios when examined separately don’t convey much information History—examine trends (how the value has changed over time) Competition—compare with other firms in the same industry Budget—compare actual values with expected or desired values 20 Common Size Statements First step in a financial analysis is usually the calculation of a common size statement Common size income statement • Presents each line as a percent of revenue Common size balance sheet • Presents each line as a percent of total assets 21 Ratios Designed to illuminate some aspect of how the business is doing Average Value When a ratio calls for a balance sheet item, may need to use average values (of the beginning and ending value for the item) or ending values • If an income or cash flow figure is combined with a balance sheet figure in a ratio—use average value for balance sheet figure • If a ratio compares two balance sheet figures—use ending value 22 Ratios Categories of Ratios Liquidity—indicate firm’s ability to pay its bills in the short run Asset Management—show how the company uses its resources to generate revenue, profit and to avoid cost Debt Management—show how effectively the firm has used borrowed funds and whether or not it has a high amount of leverage Profitability—allow assessment of the company’s ability to make money Market Value—give an indication of how investors feel about the company’s financial future 23 Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio Current Ratio Current Assets Current Liabilities To ensure solvency the current ratio has to exceed 1.0 Generally a value greater than 1.5 or 2.0 is required for comfort 24 Liquidity Ratios Quick Ratio (or Acid-Test Ratio) current assets - inventory Quick Ratio current liabilities Measures liquidity without considering inventory (the firm’s least liquid current asset) 25 Asset Management Ratios Average Collection Period (ACP) accounts receivable ACP average daily (credit) sales Measures the time it takes to collect on credit sales AKA days sales outstanding (DSO) Should use an average Accounts Receivable balance, net of the allowance for doubtful accounts 26 Asset Management Ratios Inventory Turnover cost of goods sold Inventory Turnover inventory Gives an indication of the quality of inventory as well as how it is managed Measures how many times a year the firm uses up an average stock of goods A higher turnover implies doing business with less tied up in inventory Should use average inventory balance 27 Asset Management Ratios Fixed Asset Turnover Fixed Asset Turnover Sales (Total) Fixed Assets (Net) Appropriate in industries where significant equipment is required to do business Long-term measure of performance Average balance sheet values are appropriate 28 Asset Management Ratios Total Asset Turnover Sales (Total) Total Asset Turnover Total Assets More widely used than Fixed Asset Turnover Long-term measure of performance Average balance sheet values are appropriate 29 Debt Management Ratios Need to determine if the company isn’t using so much debt that it is assuming excessive risk Debt could mean long-term debt and current liabilities Or it could mean just interest-bearing obligations—generally long-term debt Debt Ratio Debt Ratio Long-term debt Current Liabilities Total Assets A high debt ratio is viewed as risky by investors Ending balance sheet items are appropriate Usually stated as percentages 30 Debt Management Ratios Debt-to-equity ratio Can be stated several ways (as a percentage, or as a x:y value) Debt-to-Equity LT debt : Common Equity or Debt-to-Equity LT Debt Common Equity Measures the mix of debt and equity within the firm’s total capital 31 Debt Management Ratios Times Interest Earned EBIT TIE Interest Expense TIE is a coverage ratio • Reflects how much EBIT covers interest expense • A high level of interest coverage implies safety 32 Debt Management Ratios Cash Coverage EBIT depreciation Cash coverage Interest Expense TIE ratio has problems • Interest is a cash payment but EBIT is not exactly a source of cash • By adding depreciation back into the numerator we have a more representative measure of cash 33 Debt Management Ratios Fixed Charge Coverage EBIT Lease Payments Fixed Charge Coverage Interest Expense Lease Payments Interest payments are not the only fixed charges Lease payments are fixed financial charges similar to interest • They must be paid regardless of business conditions • If they are contractually non-cancelable 34 Profitability Ratios Return on Sales (AKA: Profit Margin, Net Profit Margin) ROS Net Income Sales Measures control of the income statement: revenue, cost and expense Represents a fundamental indication of the overall profitability of the business 35 Profitability Ratios Return on Assets Net Income ROA Total Assets Adds the effectiveness of asset management to Return on Sales Measures the overall ability of the firm to utilize the assets in which it has invested to earn a profit 36 Profitability Ratios Return on Equity ROE Net Income Stockholders' Equity Adds the effect of borrowing to ROA Measures the firm’s ability to earn a return on the owners’ invested capital If the firm has substantial debt, ROE tends to be higher than ROA in good times and lower in bad times 37 Market Value Ratios Price/Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio) Current stock price PE Ratio Earnings per share (EPS) An indication of the value the stock market places on a company Tells how much investors are willing to pay for a dollar of the firm’s earnings A firm’s P/E is primarily a function of its expected growth 38 Market Value Ratios Market-to-Book Value Ratio Market-to-Book-Value Current stock price book value per share (of equity) A healthy company is expected to have a market value greater than its book value • Known as the going concern value of the firm Idea is that the combination of assets and human resources will create an company able to generate future earnings worth more than the assets alone today A value less than 1.0 indicates a poor outlook for the company’s future 39 Du Pont Equations Ratio measures are not entirely independent Performance on one is sometimes tied to performance on others Du Pont equations express relationships between ratios that give insights into successful operation 40 Du Pont Equations Du Pont equation involves ROE, which can be written several ways: Net Income sales ROA Total Assets sales or Net Income sales ROA sales Total Assets or ROE = ROS total asset turnover States that to run a business well, a firm must manage costs and expenses as well as generate lots of sales per dollar of assets. 41 Du Pont Equations Extended Du Pont equation states ROE in terms of other ratios ROE Net Income sales total assets Stockholders' Equity sales total assets or ROE Net Income sales total assets sales total assets Stockholders' Equity Equity Multiplier or ROE = ROS Total Asset Turnover Equity Multiplier ROA or ROE = ROA Equity Multiplier Related to the proportion to which the firm is financed by other people’s money as opposed to owner’s money. 42 Du Pont Equations Extended Du Pont equation states that the operation of a business is reflected in its ROE However, this result—good or bad—can be multiplied by borrowing The way you finance a business can exaggerate the results from operations The Du Pont equations can be used to isolate problems 43 Sources of Comparative Information Generally compare a firm to an industry average Dun and Bradstreet publishes Industry Norms and Key Business Ratios Robert Morris Associates publishes Statement Studies U.S. Commerce Department publishes Quarterly Financial Report Value Line provides industry profiles and individual company reports 44 Limitations/Weaknesses of Ratio Analysis Ratio analysis is not an exact science and requires judgment and experienced interpretation Examples of significant problems • Diversified companies—because the interpretation of ratios is dependent upon industry norms, comparing conglomerates can be problematic • Window dressing—companies attempt to make balance sheet items look better than they would otherwise through improvements that don’t last • Accounting principles differ—similar companies may report the same thing differently, making their financial results artificially dissimilar • Inflation may distort numbers 45