Disasters and Climate Change
Adaptation
AEMA Stakeholder Summit
October 29, 2008
Leduc, Alberta
Dan Sandink
Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
Introduction
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ICLR
Global trends
Canadian disasters and disaster trends
Hazards and vulnerability
Alberta
Adaptation and disaster mitigation
Conclusion
ICLR


Created in 1997 by Canadian insurers to address
rising natural disaster losses
Affiliated with the University of Western Ontario
 Offices

in London and Toronto
30 Scientists associated with ICLR
 Engineering,
social sciences, atmospheric sciences,
geophysics

A focus on disaster mitigation and prevention
 Climate
change adaptation
Global Occurrences: Nat Cats
•Thousands of fatalities and/or hundreds of
thousands homeless
•Supra-regional, international assistance
required
•Exceptional monetary losses
Munich Re, 2008
Geophysical events
Meteorological events
Climatological events
Hydrologic events
Global Costs: Nat Cats
Munich Re, 2008
Total losses
Insured losses
Disasters in Canada
Canadian Disaster Database

Criteria for inclusion:

Meets at least one of the following:
10 or more people killed
 100 or more people affected/injured/evacuated or homeless
 An appeal for national/international assistance
 Historical significance
 Significant damage/interruption of normal processes such that
the community affect cannot recover on its own

Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007
Meteorological and Hydrologic
Disasters in Canada, 1900-2005
2
5
7
9
13
Storm surge
Heat wave
Freezing rain
Cold wave
Avalanche
Hurricane/Typhoon
Tornado
Hail/Thunderstorm
Winter storm
Drought
Wildfire
Flood
23
31
36
39
47
49
241
0
25
Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters
1900-2005
Flood is most common
Freezing rain 0
Storm surge 0
Tornado 0
Heat wave 1
Hurricane/Typhoon
2
Hail/Thunderstorm
3
Cold wave
4
Winter storm
4
Drought
5
Wildfire
6
Avalanche
8
Flood
0
10
Storm surge 0
Freezing rain 1
Avalanche
2
Heat wave
2
Hail/Thunderstorm
3
Cold wave
4
Hurricane/Typhoon
4
Drought
5
Tornado
7
Wildfire
8
Winter storm
8
Flood
0
10
Avalanche 0
Storm surge 0
Hail/Thunderstorm
2
Freezing rain
2
Hurricane/Typhoon
2
Heat wave
4
Cold wave
6
Drought
7
Winter storm
8
Tornado
Wildfire
Flood
British
Columbia
29
20
30
40
50
27
30
Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007
40
50
0
13
16
10
Hail/Thunde 0
Tornado 1
Avalanche 1
Storm surge
2
Drought
2
Heat wave
3
Cold wave
3
Wildfire
4
Freezing
4
Winter storm
Hurricane/Ty
Flood
Quebec
20
0
Ontario
49
20
30
40
50
Maritimes
13
10
16
53
20
30
40
50
60
Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters
1900-2005
Hurricane/Typhoon 0
Storm surge 0
Heat wave
2
Freezing rain
2
Avalanche
2
Wildfire
4
Tornado
4
Cold wave
6
Winter storm
6
Hail/Thunderstorm
Flood
Drought
0
Avalanche 0
Storm surge 0
Hurricane/Typhoon 0
Freezing rain
1
Heat wave
2
Winter storm
3
Tornado
4
Hail/Thunderstorm
5
Cold wave
5
Wildfire
7
Flood
Drought
0
Alberta
20
34
35
10
20
30
40
50
Avalanche 0
Storm surge 0
Hurricane/Typhoon 0
Freezing rain
1
Heat wave
2
Wildfire
3
Tornado
3
Hail/Thunderstorm
4
Winter storm
4
Cold wave
5
Flood
Drought
Drought is most
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
common, floods are
second most common
19
35
10
20
30
Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007
40
50
0
28
33
10
20
30
40
50
Disaster Database
Number of Catastrophic Events
Weather related disasters
Geophysical disasters
120
80
40
0
1960s
1970s
Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007
1980s
1990s
Disaster Database

Recent significant disaster events:






Prairie Drought, 1980
 $5.8 B
Ice Storm, 1998
 $5.4 B
Prairie Drought, 1988
 $4.1 B
Saguenay Flood, 1996
 $1.7 B
Red River Flood, 1997
 $817 M
Earthquake risk

Estimates in the 10s and 100s of billions
Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007
Insurance Payouts
Large Payout Events by Hazard, 1983-2005
Flood
Hail
Storm
Wind
Tornado
Rainstorm
Hurricane
Snowstorm
Icestorm
Wildfire
0
5
10
15
20
Number of Events
IBC, 2000; 2007
25
30
Insurance Payouts

Most expensive disasters for Canadian insurance
industry (adjusted to 2005)
 1998,
Ontario and Quebec ice storm
 $1.95
B
 August
19, 2005 heavy rainfall and wind event,
GTA/Ontario
 $500
 Hail
event, Calgary, 1991
 $444
IBC, 2007; 2000
M
M
Factors in Increasing Trends
Hazards & Vulnerability

Disasters occur when hazards trigger vulnerability
Hazards
Potentially
damaging events
•Floods
•Hurricanes
•Droughts
Vulnerability
Disaster
Risk
Propensity to
experience
impacts
(susceptibility)
•Socioeconomic
characteristics
•Location of
development
Vulnerability Factors
Internal
Sphere
External
Socioeconomic
Biophysical
Factors affecting individuals:
 Household income & levels and concentration
of wealth
 Social capital/social networks, education
 Individual risk perceptions/adoption of mitigative
adjustments
 Topography
 Local environmental
conditions
 Land-use patterns
 State of
infrastructure
 Building
characteristics
 Environmental
degradation
Factors affecting the community:
 Local government policies and institutional
arrangements
 Urbanization
 Population density, size of population
 Development in hazard prone areas
 Infrastructure funding, maintenance
 Dependence on technology
 Local economic circumstances
 Institutional arrangements at national &
provincial level
 External economic context
 International influences




Climate trends
Severe storms
Weather events
Climate change
Adapted from Füssel (2007). Sources: Cutter et al., 2000; Cutter et al., 2003; de Sherbinin et al., 2007; Dore, 2003; Etkin, 1999;
Etkin et al., 2004; Field et al., 2007; Hebb & Mortsch, 2007; Shrubsole, 2000
Vulnerability Factors
Canadians Living in Urban Areas, Millions
Other Urban
Large Urban >500K
30
20
10
0
1951
Statistics Canada, 2001
1976
2001
2026
Climate Change

Climate Change


Increasing energy in the atmospheric system
Extreme events will become more common
Drought, extreme rainfall, heavy rainfall, higher temperatures,
high wind events, health impacts
 IPCC, 2007: “Very High Confidence”


Impacts are largely local/regional
Field et al., 2007
Alberta
Meteorological and Hydrologic
Disasters in Alberta
1900-2005
Hurricane/Typhoon 0
Storm surge 0
Heat wave
2
Freezing rain
2
Avalanche
2
Wildfire
4
Tornado
4
Cold wave
6
Winter storm
6
Hail/Thunderstorm
Flood
Drought
0
Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007
20
34
35
10
20
30
40
50
Meteorological and Hydrologic
Disasters in Alberta
1900-2005
Hydrological and Meteorological Disasters
Geophysical Disasters
50
40
30
20
Frank Slide, 1903
70 Dead, 23
Injured
10
Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007
20
00
-2
00
5
19
90
-1
99
9
19
80
-1
98
9
19
70
-1
97
9
19
60
-1
96
9
19
50
-1
95
9
19
40
-1
94
9
19
30
-1
93
9
19
20
-1
92
9
19
10
-1
91
9
19
00
-1
90
9
0
Issues for Alberta
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Vulnerability issues in Alberta:
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Growing population

Growing urban population

Increasing wealth

Reliance on rivers for water

Reliance on irrigation


Alberta has 2/3 of Canada’s irrigated lands
Historical urban flood issues
From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007
Population
From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007
Hazard Vulnerable Areas
Google Maps, Alberta Environment
Hail, Drought & Flood in Alberta
Hail
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
Highest frequency of hail is in Central/Western Alberta between
1977 and 1993 – 3-7 days per warm months (May-September)
From 1900-2005, 36 hail related disasters in Canada
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20 of these were in Alberta
Most costly hailstorm in Canada: September 1991 in Calgary

116,311 claims

$342,745,000 (1991 $)

$ 475,646,122 (2008 $)
Etkin & Brun, 2001; IBC, 2006; Public Safety Canada, 2007
Hail
GTA: Sept., 2006
Alberta: Aug., 2006
Calgary: July, 2004
Edmonton: July, 2004
Saskatchewan: Aug., 2003
Alberta: Aug., 2003
Drummondville: June, 1999
Calgary: July, 1998
Outaouais: July, 1996
Calgary: July, 1996
Calgary: July, 1996
Winnipeg: July, 1996
Calgary: July, 1995
Southern Alberta: July, 1995
Edmonton: July, 1995
Southern Manitoba: Aug., 1994
Southern Alberta: June, 1993
Alberta: July, 1993
Alberta: Sept., 1992
Alberta: Aug., 1992
Calgary: July, 1992
Calgary: Sept. 1991
Calgary: July, 1990
Calgary: Aug., 1988
Montreal: May, 1987
Montreal: May, 1986
5
14
22
173
31
36
24
83
2
105
18
10
11
10
10
7
33
146
65
Minimum: $2 M
180
18/26 were in AB
7/8 events >$50 M were in
Alberta
29
454
23
40
31
0
Major Multiple-Payment
Occurrences: Hail
50
57
100
150
200
250
300
350
Millions of Dollars, Adjusted to 2006
IBC 2000; 2008
400
450
500
Hail
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Studies suggest that frequency of hail events is increasing in
Alberta

Etkin & Brun (2001) found statistically significant increase when
comparing occurrences between 1977-1982 and 1983-1993

But not in other provinces
Research on climate change impacts on hail is limited in Canada


A 2008 study found that hail occurrences will increase as the climate
changes in Australia
Possible climate change impacts

Hail associated with severe thunderstorms

Extreme weather events (including severe thunderstorms, convective
storms) are expected to increase as the climate changes
Leslie et al., 2008; White & Etkin, 1997
Drought

Drought is a normal part of the prairie ecosystem

Research has revealed that pre-settlement droughts in the prairies
were more severe, and the post-settlement climate has been
relatively favourable

Prolonged drought over 1-2 years in length more frequent in presettlement periods
Sauchyn et al., 2003; Images: Natural Resources Canada
Temperature Trends
Average temperatures since 1895 from
12 prairie climate stations prairies
Average increase in mean temp: 1.6°C
From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007; Environment Canada, 2005
Climate Change and Drought

According to a 2008 report from Government of Canada:

“Increases in water scarcity represent the most serious climate risk”
for the Prairie Provinces

Lower summer stream flows

Falling lake levels

Retreating glaciers

Increasing soil-, surface-water deficits

Greater number of dry years

Could constrain rapid economic development and population growth in Alberta
From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007
Climate Change and Drought


Smaller amount of snowfall, rain instead of snow in the winter

Snow accumulation is already decreasing (Akinremi et al., 1999)

Possibly more precipitation in the winter
Earlier peaks in runoff and stream flows



Lower late-season water supplies
Predictions of increased summer heat and decreased growing
season precipitation
Reduced supplies for communities that rely on rivers for water
supply (e.g., Calgary, which relies on Bow and Elbow Rivers)

Reduced glacial melt
From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007; Timilsina & Kralovic 2005
Days Warmer than 30°C
1961 - 1990
Fredricton
44
9
Quebec
2080 - 2100
30
4
Toronto
65
13
Winnipeg
73
14
Calgary
32
5
0
10
Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Drought

Wildfire:

Increased risk of wildfire – risk increased by 20-30% in prairie regions
over next 60 years

Earlier onset of spring and summerlike conditions will increase the
length of the fire season (season could increase by 20 days over the
next 50 years)

Wildfires can create flood risk

Increased flood risk due to hydrophobic soils, loss of vegetation during postwildfire period

Dryer conditions mean organic soils dry and burn with the forest, total removal of
vegetation

Reduced ability to store water
From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007; Wotton & Flannigan, 1993
Post-Wildfire Risks

Kelowna: Post-wildfire
flood risk

Increase between 5 and
15 times the pre-fire 1 in
200 year flows

Created approx. $10 M in
damage risk

$2 M in stream-road
crossing improvements
Flood



Likely the most significant risk for urban communities
There will be increased pressure on existing stormwater management
infrastructure
 Heavy rainfall, increased development
Heavy precipitation events have increased in in frequency in
south-western Canada, 1950-1995 (May-June-July period)


Light precipitation events have decreased in frequency
Heavy rainfall events expected in increase in frequency in
changing climate
Akinremi, 1999; Groisman et al., 2005; From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007; Stone et al., 2000
Flood

Southern Alberta, 2005
 $84,000,000 in DFAA payouts (2005 $)
 $55,000,000 in provincial disaster relief payouts (2005 $)
 $300,000,000 in Insurance payouts
 Calgary: June, 2005



13,500 claims
$144.5 million in insurance payouts (2005 $)
Southern Alberta, 1995
 $34,889,155 in DFAA payouts (1995 $)
 Provincial Share: $6,964,285
 $12,672,842 in provincial disaster relief payouts (1995 $)
 $20,764,000 in insurance payouts (1995 $)
Personal Communication, Insurance Bureau of Canada, Alberta and the North Division; IBC, 2008; PSC, 2007; Public Safety Canada
Edmonton, 2004

2 severe rainfall events in July, 2004
July 2 - 75 mm
 July 11 - 150 mm (~1 in 200 year event)
 July 11 storm part of the system that hit Peterborough on July
15


9,500 insurance claims for sewer backup
$143 M for sewer backup
 Total of $166 M for all damages

IBC, 2006; Klassen & Seifert, 2006
Urban Flood Impacts




Infrastructure damage
Business interruption
Damage to homes
Environmental impacts
Utilities in Basement
Extreme Rainfall

Overland flows caused by extreme rain
 Caused
directly by intense rain
 e.g.,
when rain exceeds 100 year capacity of major
systems and/or where major systems are poorly
defined
 Occur
outside of formally defined floodplain
 Generally,
risk maps
have not been identified in riverine flood
Extreme Rainfall –
Overland Flow
Routes
Vs. Riverine
Flooding
UMA. 2005. City of Peterborough
Flood Reduction Master Plan.
UMA: Mississauga
Mitigation and Prevention
(Adaptation)
Climate Change Adaptation


Climate Change Mitigation
 Reducing GHG emissions, improve NRG efficiency
 “Climate Protection”
 Global and long-term
Climate Change Adaptation
 Reducing negative impacts, or enhancing positive impacts of
climate change
 Local, short- to long-term
 Emergency management and disaster mitigation


Accounting for increased frequency and severity of climate/weather
related extreme events
Enhancing resilience to these events
Bruce, 1999; Lemmen & Warren, 2004; Mehdi et al., 2006
Adaptation

Risk Management


Identify, analyze, evaluate, identify options, implement and monitor
mitigation strategies
Risks change as the climate changes

Infrastructure has been based on assumption of a static climate


E.g., 1 in 100 year event
Comprehensive adaptation plans require multiple
stakeholders

Infrastructure, social issues, environmental issues, buildings, landuse planning, water resources, emergency management, etc.
Size of event (mm)
Climate Change
2090
90
2050
80
1985
70
By 2070, current “20 year” events
could occur every 10 years
60
50
10
Environment Canada
20
30
40
50
60
Event recurrence time (years)
70
80
Climate Change


Scenarios should be regionalized
IDF curve study for the City of
London, Ontario (Prodanovic &
Simonovic, 2007 – UWO)


Identified potential changes in
precipitation under climate
change scenario

Rainfall magnitude and intensity
will be different in the future

Wet scenario revealed significant
increase in rainfall magnitudes
and frequencies
Applying IDFs to assess
vulnerability (current study)
Image: Prodanovic & Simonovic, 2007
Climate Change Adaptation

Addressing the hazard



Flood management structures
Hail suppression
 Alberta Hail Suppression Project
• Reduce hail damage in urban areas (Calgary and Red Deer)
 Funded by the insurance industry
Addressing vulnerability (behaviour changes)




Urban flood reduction education programs (e.g., Edmonton)
Water conservation initiatives
Public/online access to flood maps
Planning for hazards


Risk maps and land-use restrictions
FireSmart program (Partners in Protection, based in Edmonton)
Public Behaviour

Edmonton and Toronto

Overall, Edmonton respondents more
knowledgeable and more of them had
taken mitigative action than Toronto
respondents

Significant differences in
perceptions/behaviours between case
cities

Higher rate of attending public meetings
related to flood (14% vs. 5%)

More likely to think that the City was
doing something about flood risk

Leading funding/education program
Alberta Flood Risk Map
Information System
From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007
Conclusions





Disaster frequency has increased, Globally, in
Canada and in Alberta
Disasters are hazards + vulnerabilities
Severe losses from drought, hail, flood in Alberta
Climate change scenarios indicate increased risk
A substantial portion of climate change adaptation
will include improved disaster mitigation
 Regional,
local approach
Thank you
Dan Sandink, M.A.
Manger, Resilient Communities and Research
Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
October 29, 2008