Transition to Democracy And associated conceptual frameworks Interesting articles Larry Diamond: “Is the Third Wave over?” http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_o f_democracy/v007/7.3/diamond.html Paul Lewis: “Theories of Democratisation and Patterns of Regime Change in Eastern Europe” Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics Vol13, No1, March1997 R.F.M.Lubbers: “A response to Samuel Huntington” http://www.globalize.org.clash.html Samuel P.Huntington Three waves of democratization 1828-1926 1943-1964 1974-present First two ended with a “reverse wave” Diamond’s Table 1 Year No. Democracies 1974 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 39 76 91 99 108 117 No. States 142 165 183 186 190 191 Demo as % of total 27.5 46.1 49.7 53.2 56.8 61.3 Lewis’s groups 1997 Group 1 Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovenia Intermediate Bulgaria Slovakia Group 2 Romania Croatia Albania Serbia Hang on a minute, what about? Estonia [in first group of applicant countries] Lithuania Latvia Bosnia Macedonia Ukraine Moldova Byelarus Russia Georgia Armenia Azerbaijan E.U.’s two groups of applicants Hungary Poland Estonia Czech Republic Slovenia Bulgaria Latvia Lithuania Rumania Slovakia Cyprus Turkey Explanations Group 2 primarily Ottoman, Group1 Austo-Hungarian/North European Group 2 Orthodox Christian or Muslim; Group 1 Catholic or Protestant such explanations stress cultural and historical factors Explanations 2 Group 2 countries had stable communist rule Group 1 had history of instability and ideological revisionism Elite mass relations very different under Communist rule Explanations 3 Civil society strong in group 1 countries Poland: church Hungary: dissident elections and early political parties Czechs; artists East Germany: Lutheran peace groups Slovenia; punks and youth groups More on Civil society Revolts: GDR 1953; Hungary Poland 1956; Czechoslovakia 1968; Poland 19801 pluralism developed as leadership retreated during 1980s So civil society began to organise itself pre-1989 Explanations 4 Group 1 communist regimes modes of exit involved social movements that negotiated elections [Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia] Group 2 exit by coup or elite reshuffle; pace of democratisation delayed Explanations 5 Modernization and socio-economic development higher in Group 1 GDP per capita higher urbanisation higher % working in agriculture lower Debate: Modernisation v Elite Choice Lipset Dahl Huntington Pye O’Donnell and Schmitter Przeworski Bova von Beyme Welsh