Transition to Democracy
And associated conceptual
frameworks
Interesting articles
Larry Diamond: “Is the Third Wave
over?”
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_o
f_democracy/v007/7.3/diamond.html
 Paul Lewis: “Theories of
Democratisation and Patterns of Regime
Change in Eastern Europe” Journal of
Communist Studies and Transition
Politics Vol13, No1, March1997
 R.F.M.Lubbers: “A response to Samuel
Huntington”
http://www.globalize.org.clash.html

Samuel P.Huntington
Three waves of democratization
 1828-1926
 1943-1964
 1974-present
 First two ended with a “reverse wave”

Diamond’s Table 1
Year
No.
Democracies
1974
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
39
76
91
99
108
117
No.
States
142
165
183
186
190
191
Demo as
% of total
27.5
46.1
49.7
53.2
56.8
61.3
Lewis’s groups 1997








Group 1
Hungary
Poland
Czech Republic
Slovenia
Intermediate
Bulgaria
Slovakia





Group 2
Romania
Croatia
Albania
Serbia
Hang on a minute, what about?



Estonia [in first group
of applicant countries]
Lithuania
Latvia









Bosnia
Macedonia
Ukraine
Moldova
Byelarus
Russia
Georgia
Armenia
Azerbaijan
E.U.’s two groups of applicants


Hungary
Poland
Estonia
Czech Republic
Slovenia

Bulgaria
Latvia
Lithuania
Rumania
Slovakia

Cyprus

Turkey







Explanations
Group 2 primarily Ottoman, Group1
Austo-Hungarian/North European
 Group 2 Orthodox Christian or Muslim;
Group 1 Catholic or Protestant
 such explanations stress cultural and
historical factors

Explanations 2
Group 2 countries had stable communist
rule
 Group 1 had history of instability and
ideological revisionism
 Elite mass relations very different under
Communist rule

Explanations 3
Civil society strong in group 1 countries
 Poland: church
 Hungary: dissident elections and early
political parties
 Czechs; artists
 East Germany: Lutheran peace groups
 Slovenia; punks and youth groups

More on Civil society
Revolts: GDR 1953; Hungary Poland
1956; Czechoslovakia 1968; Poland 19801
 pluralism developed as leadership
retreated during 1980s
 So civil society began to organise itself
pre-1989

Explanations 4
Group 1 communist regimes modes of exit
involved social movements that negotiated
elections [Poland, Hungary,
Czechoslovakia]
 Group 2 exit by coup or elite reshuffle;
pace of democratisation delayed

Explanations 5
Modernization and socio-economic
development higher in Group 1
 GDP per capita higher
 urbanisation higher
 % working in agriculture lower

Debate:
Modernisation v Elite Choice




Lipset
Dahl
Huntington
Pye





O’Donnell and
Schmitter
Przeworski
Bova
von Beyme
Welsh