Public Opinion and
Political Socialization:
Shaping the People’s Voice
Chapter 6
V. O. Key, Jr.
To speak with precision of
public opinion is a task
not unlike coming to grips
with the Holy Ghost.
Political Socialization:
The Origins of Americans’ Opinions
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Public opinion: opinions of citizens that are openly stated
The Measurement of Public Opinion
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Public Opinion- the opinions of private individuals become public
when they are expressed publicly
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Facial expression
Voting
Letters to the editor
Lobbyist activities
Public protests or demonstrations
Yard signs/ bumper stickers
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As a concept or force in American politics,
public opinion is elusive, powerful, inexact
and contradictory
Political Socialization:
The Origins of Americans’ Opinions
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How Informed Is Public Opinion?
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In comparison to Europeans, Americans’ awareness of
public affairs is lower
Who first said “a government of the people, by the people,
for the people?”
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Abraham Lincoln- ¾ of Ivy League students surveyed missed this
question
Civic Literacy Test- Avg. college senior scored an “F”
Political culture: the characteristic and deep-seated
beliefs of a particular people about government and
politics
Political Socialization:
The Origins of Americans’ Opinions
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Political socialization process
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Political Socialization- the process by which
individuals acquire their opinions
 Childhood learning is paramount
 Process is cumulative: political affiliations usually
grow firmer with age
Political Socialization:
The Origins of Americans’ Opinions
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Primary political socialization agents
 Family
 Family
is the strongest of all agents of socialization
 Schools
 Church
 Scholars
have not studied the effects of religion as well
as schools or family, but it is a powerful influence
 most evident in social policy issues i.e. abortion, school
prayer, etc.
Influence of Religion
Political Socialization:
The Origins of Americans’ Opinions
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Secondary political socialization agents
 Peers
 Media
 Political Institutions
and Leaders
Frames of Reference: How
Americans Think Politically
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Frames of reference: reference points by which individuals
evaluate issues and developments
Party identification
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Party identification: emotional loyalty to a political party; not formal
membership
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Americans = 1/3 Dem +1/3 Ind. +1/3 GOP
Party loyalties are not as stable as once was thought
Partisanship based on economic circumstances and policy traditions
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Affirmative Action- Dems.
 Less Gun Control- Repubs.
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Major shifts in loyalty rare and in younger adults
Partisanship can lead to selective perception
Partisanship and Issue Opinions
Party Differences
Frames of Reference: How Americans
Think Politically
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Ideological Thinking: The Outlook for Some
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Ideology
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Consistent pattern of opinion on particular issues from a basic underlying
belief
 Only a minority truly understand and apply ideological frames of reference
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Liberals
 For
gov. intervention in economics; opposed to
intervention in social sphere
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Conservatives
 Opposed to
gov. intervention in economics; for
intervention in social sphere
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Libertarians
 Opposed to
gov. intervention in economic & social
spheres
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Populists
 For
gov. intervention in economic & social spheres
Frames of Reference: How Americans Think Politically
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Group Thinking: The Outlook of Manypeople rely on groups to which they belong
as reference points for opinions
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Religion
Economic Class
Region
Race and Ethnicity
Gender
Generations and Age
Crosscutting Cleavages
Gender and the Iraq Conflict
The Measurement of Public Opinion
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The measurement of public opinion
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Traditional method: election results
Public opinion polls: primary method
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Measure public opinion using randomly chosen population sample(s) and
carefully constructed interviews
Elected officials frequently respond to polls based on random samples of
constituents
Gallup- predicted every POTUS election winner since 1936 (except
1948)Dewy- Truman
Most large news organizations have their own in-house polls
Samples—estimation of population’s views
Accuracy of a poll—expressed by sampling error
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A poll of 1000 people would have a sampling error of +/- 3%
The Measurement of Public Opinion
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Problems with polls
 Most
relied upon way to measure public opinion,
however:
 Polls
can be erroneous at times- 1948- Dewy- Truman
 Other problems
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Unrepresentative samples
 Increasing refusal to participate in telephone polls
Polled individuals unfamiliar with issues
Poorly trained interviewers
Dishonesty by respondents
Poorly worded questions and poor question order
Non-opinions
The Influence of Public Opinion
on Policy
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Disagreement over how much public opinion
affects policy, and how much it should affect
policy
 People’s
view should prevail.
 Some counter that elite opinion prevails.
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Limits on public influence
 Inconsistencies in
citizens’ policy preferences
 Citizens’ lack of understanding of issues
 Mastery
of issues not necessary for opinion to be of
value, but some issues require understanding
The Influence of Public Opinion
on Policy
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Public opinion and the boundaries of action
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Some policy actions outside boundaries of public acceptability
 Greater the level of public involvement, the more likely officials
will respond to public sentiment
 Even on popular issues, leaders have some discretion
 Leaders can influence public opinion through concerted effort