Chapter Eight Making Capital Investment Decisions Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-1 Chapter Organisation 8.1 Project Cash Flows: A First Look 8.2 Incremental Cash Flows 8.3 Project Cash Flows 8.4 More on Project Cash Flows 8.5 Special Cases of Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Summary and Conclusions Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-2 Chapter Objectives • Identify incremental cash flows relevant to investment evaluation. • Calculate depreciation expense for tax purposes. • Apply incremental analysis to project evaluation. • Determine how to set the bid price and how to value options. • Compare mutually-exclusive projects using annual equivalent costs. Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-3 Project Cash Flows • The incremental cash flows for project evaluation consist of any and all changes in the firm’s future cash flows that are a direct consequence of undertaking the project. • The stand-alone principle is the evaluation of a project based on the project’s incremental cash flows. Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-4 Types of Cash Flows • Sunk costs a cost that has already been incurred and cannot be removed incremental cash flow. • Opportunity costs the most valuable alternative that is given up if a particular investment is undertaken = incremental cash flow. • Side effects erosion the cash flows of a new project that come at the expense of a firm’s existing projects = incremental cash flow. Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-5 Types of Cash Flows (continued) • Financing costs the interest rate used to discount the cash flows reflects in part the financing costs of the project incremental cash flow. • An investment of the firm in the project’s net working capital represents an additional cost of undertaking the investment. • Always use after-tax incremental cash flow, since taxes are definitely a cash flow. Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-6 Investment Evaluation • Step 1 Calculate the tax effect of the decision. • Step 2 Calculate the cash flows relevant to the decision. • Step 3 Discount the cash flows to make the decision. Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-7 Example—Investment Evaluation • Purchase price $42 000 • Salvage value $1000 at end of Year 3 • Net cash flows Year 1 $31 000 Year 2 $25 000 Year 3 $20 000 • Tax rate is 30% • Depreciation 20% reducing balance • Required rate of return 12% Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-8 Solution—Depreciation Schedule Initial cost Dep’n – Yr 1 (20% 42 000) Depreciated value Dep’n – Yr 2 (20% 33 600) Depreciated value Dep’n – Yr 3 (20% 26 880) Depreciated value Salvage value Loss on disposal $42 000 8 400 33 600 6 720 26 880 5 376 21 504 1 000 $20 504 Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-9 Solution—Taxable Income Year 0 Net cash flows Depreciation Loss on sale Taxable income Year 1 31 000 (8 400) Year 2 25 000 (6 720) $22 600 $18 280 Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan Year 3 20 000 (5 376) (20 504) $(5 880) 8-10 Solution—Cash Flows Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Tax paid (6 780) (5 484) 1 764 Net cash flow 31 000 25 000 20 000 Salvage value Outlay Cash flow 1 000 (42 000) $(42 000) $24 220 $19 516 Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan $22 764 8-11 Solution—NPV and Decision Cash flow Discount PV cash flow NPV Year 0 (42 000) 1 ($42 000) $11 387 Year 1 24 220 0.8929 $21 626 Year 2 19 516 0.7972 $15 558 Year 3 22 764 0.7118 $16 203 Decision: NPV > 0, therefore ACCEPT. Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-12 Interest • As the project’s NPV is positive, the cash flows from the investment will cover interest costs (as long as the interest cost is less than the required rate of return). • Interest costs should not therefore be included as an explicit cash flow. • Interest costs are included in the required rate of return (discount rate) used to evaluate the project. Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-13 Depreciation • The depreciation expense used for capital budgeting should be the depreciation schedule required for tax purposes. • Depreciation is a non-cash expense; consequently, it is only relevant because it affects taxes. • There are two methods of depreciation: – Prime cost (straight-line method in accounting) – Diminishing value (reducing balance method in accounting) • Depreciation tax shield = DT where D = depreciation expense T = marginal tax rate. Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-14 Disposal of Assets • If the salvage value > book value, a gain is made on disposal. This gain is subject to tax (excess depreciation in previous periods). • If the salvage value < book value, the ensuing loss on disposal is a tax deduction (insufficient depreciation in previous periods). Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-15 Capital Gains Tax • Capital gains made on the sale of assets such as rental property are subject to taxation. • For taxation purposes, the calculation of a capital gain is complicated and depends upon whether the seller is an individual or an entity such as a company or trust. • Capital losses are not a tax deduction but can be offset against future capital gains. Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-16 Inflation • When a project is being evaluated, anticipated inflation would be reflected in the estimates of the future cash flows and the interest rate used as the discount rate in the analysis. • As a result there will be no distortion to the analysis by not identifying inflation specifically. Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-17 Incremental Form of Analysis • The description ‘incremental’ is often replaced by ‘marginal’. • The advantage of using a marginal form of analysis is that there will only be one calculation and not two. • By using a marginal form we are implicitly analysing one option: that is, to do nothing. • The sign of the NPV tells us whether it is sensible to change or not. Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-18 Example—Incremental Cash Flows A firm is currently considering replacing a machine purchased two years ago with an original estimated useful life of five years. The replacement machine has an economic life of three years. Other relevant data is summarised below: Initial cost Annual revenues Annual costs Annual depreciation Salvage value Tax rate Required rate of return Existing Machine $240 000 $100 000 $60 000 $48 000 $80 000 (now) 30% 10% New Machine $360 000 $150 000 $70 000 $120 000 $100 000 (End year 3) Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-19 Solution—Taxable Income Year 0 Increased revenues Increased costs Dep’n Existing Dep’n New Loss on sale (existing) (64 000) Gain on sale (new) Taxable income $(64 000) Year 1 50 000 (10 000) 48 000 (120 000) $(32 000) Year 2 50 000 (10 000) 48 000 (120 000) Year 3 50 000 (10 000) 48 000 (120 000) $(32 000) 100 000 $68 000 Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-20 Solution—Cash Flows Year 0 19 200 Tax Increased revenues Increased costs Salvage values 80 000 Outlay (360 000) Cash flow $(260 800) Year 1 9 600 50 000 (10 000) Year 2 9 600 50 000 (10 000) Year 3 (20 400) 50 000 (10 000) 100 000 $49 600 $49 600 $160 400 Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-21 Solution—NPV and Decision Year 0 Cash flow (260 800) Discount 1 PV of cash flow $(260 800) NPV ($54 212) Year 1 49 600 0.9091 $45 091 Year 2 49 600 0.8264 $40 989 Year 3 160 400 0.7513 $120 508 Decision: NPV < 0, therefore REJECT. Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-22 A Note on Cash Flows • Cash flows do not always conveniently occur at the end of the period. • Taking revenue at the period end is a conservative approach to evaluation. • If the facts made it necessary to take cash flows as occurring at the beginning of the period this only requires a minor adjustment to the analysis. • The period examined could be yearly, monthly or even weekly. If so, the discount rate must match the period (e.g. a weekly analysis needs a weekly rate). Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-23 Setting the Bid Price • How to set the lowest price that can be profitably charged. • Cash outflows are given. • Determine cash inflows that result in zero NPV at the required rate of return. • From cash inflows, calculate sales revenue and price per unit. Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-24 Setting the Option Value • A buy option is an arrangement that gives the holder the right to buy an asset at a fixed price sometime in the future. • Option value = Asset value × Probability of the Value – Present value of the exercise price × Probability the exercise price will be paid. Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-25 Annual Equivalent Cost (AEC) • When comparing two mutually-exclusive projects with different lives, it is necessary to make comparisons over the same time period. • AEC is the present value of each project’s costs calculated on an annual basis. • NPVs are calculated and then converted to AECs using the relevant PVIFA (present value interest factor for annuities). • Select the project with the lowest AEC. Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-26 Example—AEC • Project A costs $3000 and then $1000 per annum for the next four years. • Project B costs $6000 and then $1200 for the next eight years. • Required rate of return for both projects is 10 per cent. • Which is the better project? Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-27 Solution—Project A NPV C PVIFA 4, 0.10 C0 $1000 3.1699 $3000 $3170 $3000 $6170 PV of costs AEC PVIFA 4, 0.10 $6 170 3.1699 $1 946 Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-28 Solution—Project B NPV C PVIFA 8, 0.10 C0 $1 200 5.3349 $6000 $6402 $6000 $12 402 PV of costs AEC PVIFA 8, 0.10 $12 402 5.3349 $2325 Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-29 Solution—Interpretation ‘Project A is better because it costs $1946 per year compared to Project B’s $2325 per year’. Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-30 Annual Equivalent Benefit (AEB) • The AEB is used when comparing projects with cash inflows and outflows but with unequal lives. • The steps required to calculate the AEB are the same as those used for AEC. • Select the project with the highest AEB. Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-31 Summary and Conclusions • Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is a standard tool in the business world. • The information provided for a specific decision may be complex; however the analysis reduces to three distinct steps: - Step 1 Calculate the taxable income - Step 2 Calculate the cash flows relevant to the decision - Step 3 Discount the cash flows to make the decision. • Cash flows should be identified in a way that makes economic sense. Copyright 2007 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 4e, by Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield & Jordan 8-32