Ask Measure Learn
by Lutz Finger
Last update: March, 2014
The philosophy of the day is
dataism
.
—DAVID BROOKS (@NYTDAVIDBROOKS
We focus too much on
technology
Google Search on the term “Big Data”
ASK the right
Questions.
MEASURE the right
data – even if it is not
Big data.
Take Actions and
LEARN from them.
ASK
Ask the right
Question
ASK
THE HARDEST PART
AS
Let’s do “Social Media”
AS
Source: IBM Institute for Business Value.
• Opinion leaders (Katz 1955)
• Influentials (Merton 1968)
• Law of the Few (Gladwell 2000)
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
AS
Please find an “INFLUENCER”
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
AS
A few person decide what we
do…
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
AS
REALLY?
AS
Dear Marketers,
There is no influencer. It’s
a myth.
•
•
•
•
AS
Reality 50% is Homophily
4 years
1001 Students on Facebook
traditional Self-reported Data
How did taste Spread
Source: Kevin Lewisa, Marco Gonzaleza and Jason Kaufman (2012): PNAS Vol 109, no 1
Influence is often overestimated. It needs:
• Reach
• Readiness
• Topic Dependence
AS
Aja Dior M.?
AP News?
AS
Aja Dior M.?
AP News?
Aja Dior M.
omgg, my aunt tiffany who work for
whitney houston just found whitney
houston dead in the tub. such ashamed &
sad :(
45 min
AS
I want to create “REACH”
… in order to “SELL”
Measure the
right Data
Source: WIkipedia
MEAS
What is RIGHT?
MEAS
even if it is not
Big Data
MEAS
More Data
does not equal
More Insights
MEAS
We want small data….
Data ELT and
Aggregation
Yes
or
No
1
Petabyte
2
Terabyte
3
Gigabyte
4
Bit
MEAS
Calculating Reach via
Network Data
1977: Linton C. Freeman, “Centrality based
“SELL”
needs purchase intend
MEAS
“REACH”
creates awareness
MEAS
Correlations are
important
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
MEAS
What is your behavior?
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
MEAS
The issue with the
Correlation / Causation
MEASURE
Sometimes data
is not easy to get.
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
MEAS
Social Behavior is
‘unstructured’
New York Weather in April 2013
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
MEAS
It is way easier to work with
‘structured data’
MEASURE
MEAS
Source: Jeffrey Breen
30
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
MEAS
What is RIGHT?
RightActions
and learn
from them.
4
Connections
2
3%
Connections
4%
1 Connection
28%
0
Connections
59%
LEA
Information vs. Action…
2
Connections
4%
4
Connections
3%
1
Connection
28%
0
Connections
59%
LEA
Information vs. Action…
Benchmark
LEA
Three Types of actionable
Insights
Predictions
Recommendations &
Filter
LEA
BENCHMARK
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
LEA
Competitive Benchmark
LEA
RECOMMEND & FILTER
People You May Know
Groups You May Like
Ads You Be Interested in
Companies you May Want to Follow
Similar Profiles
Puls
LEA
LinkedIn Recommendation
Products
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
LEA
Filter
LEA
PREDICTIONS
LEA
Predicting the OSCAR 2013
LEA
Predicting the OSCAR
Possible other Features:
CROWDSOURCED:
• Box Office Results
• Movie Goer Reviews
• Critics
OTHER “Hard Facts”
• Genre
• Payment of Actors
• Etc.
Source: Farsite
LEA
Predicting the OSCAR
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
LEA
Predicting Box Office
LEA
Predictions are not easy,
especially if they are about
the Future.
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
LEA
Which Model to use
Google’s Prediction API
LEA
Which Model to use
LEA
Many more examples…
Benchmark
Recommendation & Filter
Predict
LEA
Data Wrangling & Data
Science is getting Easier
LEA
Training
Update
Summary
ASK the right
Questions.
MEASURE the right
data – even if it is not
Big data.
Take Actions and
LEARN from them.
Thanks
LutzFinger.com