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STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES: ATTITUDES TOWARD FAVORING OR OPPOSING GUN
CONTROL
Cory Beck
Southwestern College
Professor Jacques
May 6, 2014
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The issue of gun control in America has long been a subject of intense national debate.
The topic has recently been re-ignited over the recent wave of mass shootings. The tragic event
at Newtown, Connecticut alone ended with the deaths of 26 innocents at Sandy Hook
Elementary School; 20 of which were children. The issue has proven politically and
philosophically divisive as the opposing sides argue over the merits of increased gun control.
The media argues the subject on a nightly basis the dangers of firearm ownership and public
safety concerns against the right to self-protection and the preservation of individual liberties.
Sentiment toward gun control has had measurable effects with polling by Gallup and the
General Social Survey (GSS) having plotted empirical evidence that gun ownership has been on
a steady decline since they began gathering data. From 1973 through 2010, evidence supports
(http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/12/guns-in-america-statistics/600) both of these
agencies published polling statistics as the number of households owning guns has fallen from
50% percent to 32% in 2010. It is important to note that this research and findings were further
scrutinized post Sandy Hook and subsequently examined the proportion of Americans’ who own
guns versus world population; number of guns available for ownership on earth etc.
Not surprisingly an effort to measure public outrage and the current wave of emotion
flooding the nation, the GSS along with the “National Science Foundation for Social Research”,
crafted the following two research questions which were recently polled in the nation: “Would
you favor or oppose a law that would require a person to obtain a police permit before he or she
could buy a gun?” And “How important is the gun control issue to you—would you say it is
one of the most important, important, not very important, or not important at all?”
(http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/survey/index.jsp).
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The questions posed in this portion of the data intended to measure whether or not you
would favor or oppose gun permits. This question subsequently became the dependent variable
for the statistical model. Independent variables’ such as the socioeconomic position of an
individual, respondents income, age, sex, race, region of residence at 16, and the political party
affiliation were then added to determine if they had any effect on the dependent variable.
Utilizing a multiple regression statistical analysis a study was conducted to determine if any of
these independent variables have an impact on the 775 respondents that answered the question of
favoring or opposing gun control. This data was then collected through GSS.
GSS is a social survey resource that provides data information containing demographic,
behavioral, attitudinal questions and many other topics of special interest. According to the
General Social Survey, “GSS takes the pulse of America, and it’s a unique and valuable
resource. It has tracked the opinions of Americans over the four decades” (General Social
Survey, n.d., Screen 1). GSS is considered one of the most reliable sources of data in
relationship to societal trends; therefore their information was collected for the purpose of this
study. Data collected for GSS is accomplished through proportional sampling. Proportional
sampling techniques consist of three types; permanent questions that occur on every survey,
rotating questions, and occasional questions. GSS follows the highest survey standards and their
information is rigidly pre-tested while full-probability sampling is used. Therefore, for our
intended study GSS data was utilized to capture our variables. The following is the list of
variables conducted from the GSS data file. The GSS data file or codebook for our study is the
following:
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Selected Study: GSS 1972-2010 Cumulative Data file = GUNLAW
NAME
DESCRIPTION
CODING
GUNLAW - Favor or Oppose Gun
Permits
AGE – Age of Respondent
86. Would you favor or oppose a law,
which would require a person to obtain a
police permit before he or she could buy
a gun?
13. Respondent’s Age
SEX - Respondents Sex
23. Code respondent’s sex
RACE - Race of Respondent
24. What race do you consider yourself?
REG16 – Region of Residence,
Age 16
26. In what state or foreign country were
you living when you were 16 years old
RINCOME - Respondents Income
38. Did you earn any income from last
year? A. If yes: In which of these groups
did your earnings from (Occupation) for
last year fall? That is before taxes or
other deductions.
56. Generally speaking, do you usually
think of yourself as a Republican,
Democrat, Independent, or what?
PARTYID – Political Party
Affiliation
1=Favor
2=Oppose
18…
89 or older
1=Male
2=Female
1=White
2=Black
3=Other
0=Foreign
1=New England…
8=Mountain
9=Pacific
1= Less than $1000…
12=$25,000 or more
0= Strong Democrat
1=Not Strong Democrat
2=IND, Near Dem
3=Independent…
6=Strong Republican
7=Other Party
GSS data and the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) was used as a tool to
collect the information and then analyze it through multiple statistical analysis with the
theocratic focus on quantitative analysis. SPSS, a software package provided the necessary
analytical analysis. Using SPSS and GSS data, a multiple regression for our intended study was
then conducted. This was chosen to determine the impact of two or more independent variables
based on a single dependent variable (Babbie, 2013). This methodology was used in order to
predict the value of a variable based on the value of another variable. In our study, our
dependent variable was whether or not you would favor or oppose gun control and the
independent variables are those listed above (Code Book). The descriptive statistics for the
study are the following:
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Descriptive Statistics
Mean
FAVOR OR OPPOSE GUN
Std. Deviation
N
1.25
.433
775
10.14
2.947
775
RESPONDENTS SEX
1.50
.500
775
RACE OF RESPONDENT
1.31
.621
775
4.39
2.702
775
43.36
14.008
775
2.91
2.003
775
PERMITS
RESPONDENTS INCOME
REGION OF RESIDENCE,
AGE 16
AGE OF RESPONDENT
POLITICAL PARTY
AFFILIATION
These descriptive statistics indicate that the mean (average) of those who favor gun
permits is 1.25. The respondent’s income is 10.14, which is approximately $15,500. The
respondent’s sex is 1.5 and the race of the respondent is 1.31. Both of these indicate that 2/3rds
of our population is white male. The region of residence is 4.39 and this represents the WestNorth Central portion of the United States. The age of the respondent is 43 and the political
party affiliation is independent with slight left leaning tendencies. Lastly, the standard deviation
or the measure of dispersion around the mean is .433. This descriptive statistical information is
from a sample representation of 775 respondents. With the use of SPSS, the first and probably
the simplest quantitative assumption is to determine the confidence intervals.
Probability theory specifies that 68 percent of the samples will lie within one standard
deviation of the mean, 95% of them will be within two standard deviations of the mean and 99.9
will be within three standard deviations of the mean. Therefore, utilizing confidence levels (pvalues) on a null hypothesis we must refute the null hypothesis to prove that the results are not
due to chance (204). With the use of SPSS we can then determine the confidence intervals of the
independent variables. Those confidence intervals are the following for my study:
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Just as importantly however, is that in a variety of questions with regard to guns found in
the General Social Survey (GSS), as well as other gun related issues regardless of the variables,
nominal or ordinal, which were added to the query, the trend is still seen to be going downward,
and a consistent “positive correlation” is demonstrated. This suggests, “That the two (et al)
variables in question vary in the same direction. As one variable increases, so does the other, as
one variable decreases, so do the other.” (Davis, Powell, Lachlan, 2013 pp289-292). The
“positive correlation” appeared regardless of the coefficients and the pairings that were made.
One or many, each time the trend on the scatter plot was seen to be heading towards negative
numbers.
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According to Gallup from a poll conducted in January of 2013, 38% of Americans are
dissatisfied with the nation's gun laws and want them strengthened. This percentage is up from
25% who had the same views a year ago, and is the highest since 2001. In spite of this
compelling data, more Americans are either satisfied with current gun laws, 43%, or think they
should be loosened, 5%. As far as overall satisfaction with views on current gun laws of the
current laws, Gallup also conducted studies of a long-term-trend measure of gun law preferences
and found 58% of all Americans opining that gun laws should be stricter which has increased
from 43% in 2011 (Gallup, 2013).
In the aftermath of the Connecticut school shootings, the Vice President Joe Biden leads
a federal task force that is recommending ways to curb violence. Through Gallup polling, 38%
of Americans are currently dissatisfied with our nation’s gun laws and would like for them to be
stricter. These numbers are up 25% who had the same views a year ago. This poll also estimates
that 43% of the Americans are currently satisfied with the current gun laws and 5% of the current
population thinks the laws should be loosened (see graph below).
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Interestingly enough, during a one-year period, those who were dissatisfied with the
current laws and wanted stricter laws on gun control has decreased 3% points. Those
individuals who were currently satisfied with the current gun control had a 7% point decrease.
This data supports my analysis in which many people would favor gun permits. With 38%
dissatisfied and wanting stricter gun laws, it can then be stated that close to 4 out of 10
Americans believe gun laws should be stricter. These numbers have risen over 25% in a oneyear period (Gallup, 2013).
The questions, which were undertaken in the data presented in this paper, also went on to
determine which variables contributed the support or opposition of gun permits. The following
graph indicates that of the 1258 respondents which are currently available for this question
through the GSS it was the sex, race, and political party which favored gun permits and the
income, age of respondent, and region of residence of those respondents had little or no impact.
However, the Standard Deviation for each group remained the same whether they felt strongly
one way or another.
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One particular limitation to this study that needs to be identified is the use of GSS data.
One of the fundamental limitations of GSS is the small sampling size of 775 respondents that
was used and the fact that it is a cross-sectional survey of the United States population. By being
cross-sectional, it then accesses patterns for sub-groups geographically or by race of ethnic
group. In addition to small sampling sizes, GSS does not allow one to evaluate attitude and/or
behavior changes and then relate them back to demographic or other characteristics (Beveridge,
2007), In this case, attitude and behavioral changes may have had an impact on whether or not
one would oppose or favor gun control especially after the recent events that took place at the
Sandy Hook Elementary School.
Today, it is estimated that GSS is able to receive a 70% response rate to their surveys
while the traditional telephone poll responses have fallen from 30% to 10%. According to Harry
Jenton, “response rates for traditional telephone surveys tend to undercount blacks and the
Latinos.’ Therefore, according to GSS data, African Americans and Latinos are also less likely to
own guns (Jenton, 2012). In our particular study, the Code Book asked the question, what race
do you consider yourself? The appropriate responses were white, black and other. My study
indicated that two thirds of the 775 respondents were white male and they would favor gun
control. These results are very much similar or comparable to the GSS - Telephone polling
disparity. This particular study did not have any change to the outcome however it did have a pvalue of .000 that pertained to white males favoring gun control. As stated, the null hypothesis
was incorrect and this independent variable had an impact on the dependent variable.
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The objective of this research study was to determine whether or not one would favor or
oppose gun permits. The statistical evidence illustrates that there is favor for gun permits and
gun ownership and that it is also trending downward. With the use of polling data and this study,
it could be utilized to assist lawmakers as they attempt to pass laws to strengthen gun sales.
According to Gallup, 58% of Americans favor stricter laws that cover the sale of firearms. This
is up from 43% in 2011 (Americans Want Stricter Gun Laws, Still Oppose Bans, 2012). These
results are at their highest since they were measured back in 2004 after the mass shooting in
Wisconsin where six hunters were killed and two were wounded because of an argument. The
graph below illustrates the preference for laws covering the sales of firearms.
These are just two examples that illustrate laws that advocate stricter control of firearms.
This information along with polling data can be utilized as an additional tool to assist lawmakers
as they move forward to find bipartisan support for background checks and other gun control
measures. In doing so, it may provide bureaucrats the necessary ammunition that is needed to
contest or limit different types of assault weapons, magazines, and ammunition.
In conclusion, recent headlines have appeared to indicate waning gun control support as
the public rhetoric and media scrutiny has, for the moment, cooled. Media polls, responsible for
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the headlines that often mirror the mood of the nation, are usually indicative of their viewership
and constituency. Those polls often prove difficult to gage the moods and attitudes on the
populace due to their political alliances. Additionally, those media generated polls are also
exaggerated and lack scientific credibility. In this modern era of media subjectivity polls
originating from the media should be regarded with skepticism and scrutiny and may not be an
accurate indicator of the true public sentiment. Ultimately though, changing attitudes may realign
back to pre-Sandy Hook era which favor traditional ideologies on both sides which would result
in little change in national policy and or laws.
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Works Cited:
Babbie, Earl (2013). The Practice of Social Research. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth
Beveridge, Andrew A. (2007). The General Social Survey and Its Impact in Sociology and Other
Sciences. Retrieved from: http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2007/nsf0748/nsf0748_6.pdf
Davis, Christine; Powell, Heather; Lachlan, Kenneth (2013). Communication Research Methods.
Dubuque, IA: Kendall Hunt
In U.S., 38% Dissatisfied and Want Stricter Gun Laws (2013). Retrieved from
http://www.gallup.com/poll/159824/u.s.-dissatisfied-want-stricter-gun-laws.aspx
“National Science Foundation: Where Discovery Begins” (2013). Retrieved from
http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/survey/index.jsp