Global Warming and
Demographic Aging: its
Effects on Global Prosperity
Dr. Maria Sophia Aguirre
Department of Business and Economics
The Catholic University of America
IV Congreso Internacional de la Familia
Universidad de la Sabana
Bogotá, Colombia
April 25-26, 2008
Global Warming
•
A Study of Air and Water Pollution
Neo-Malthusian theory:
• population growth destroys the environment.
• people threaten the balance of biodiversity and
ecology of the earth’s resources.
• One way is through the pollution of air and water.
• Free-market proponents argue that a market-based
approach will encourage the market to help the
environment through technological innovation.
• ‘People as Problem Solvers’ argue that current problems are
the result of poor management from government, believe in
win-win free market response.
Country
Total
Emissions
Annual
Change
(%)
Emissions share
of world total
(%)
Population
share
Carbon
Emissions per
capita
1990
2004
19902004
1990
2004
2004
1990
2004
USA,
4,818
6,045.8
1.8
21.1
20.9
4.6
19.3
20.6
China
2,399
5,007.1
7.8
10.6
17.3
20.2
2.1
3.8
Russia
1,984
1,524.1
-1.9
8.8
5.3
2.2
13.4
10.6
Global Aggregates (development and region level)
Highincome
OECD
10,055.4
12,137.5
1.5
44.3
41.9
14.3
12.0
13.2
Least
74.1
146.3
7.0
0.3
0.5
11.8
0.2
0.2
SubSaharan
454.8
663.1
3.3
2.0
2.3
11.1
1.0
1.0
Medium
5,944.4 10,215.2
5.1
26.2
35.2
65.1
1.8
2.5
World
22,702
2.0
100
100
100
4.3
4.5
28,983
Human development Index, 2008
Regional Contributions to Carbon Emissions
100%
D3- Least Developed
Countries
80%
D2-Developing Countries
60%
India
40%
20%
0%
Cumulative Flux
Emissions in 2004
[1751-2004]
Flux
Growth
in 2004
China
Former Soviet Union
D1-Developed Countries
Japan
EU
Population USA
in 2004
“Recent Carbon Trends and the Global Carbon Budget,” Global Carbon Project. Nov.
2007.
Global Warming and Efficiency
• Eradicating pollution is not the issue, it is making polluting
efficient
• Advancement in technology through human integrity and
innovation allow for environmental efficiency
• Such development allows for more environmental
protection measures to be created without harming the
market
• Innovation and technological advancements allow for
pollution control, not population control policies under the
neo-Malthusian theory
The Population Problem
• The world population is increasing at a rapid rate, particularly within
developing countries
• Many policy makers and theorists worry that soon there could be too
many people for the amount of resources available
• Many international organizations and developing countries have
implemented population control policies to try and slow this growth
before it puts a “burden” on the world’s natural resources
• Many of these policies are based upon Neo-Malthusian theory
• Population control policies have jeopardized real long-term economic
growth, placing a heavy burden on the economic welfare of these
societies.
Neo-Malthusian Theory
Two main sub-categories:
• The Limited Resource Perspective: takes the
classic Malthusian argument and applies it to all
natural resources
• The Socio-Biological Perspective: almost acting as
a sub-set of the former, treats the environment as
a limited resource and regards people as a threat
to the biodiversity and ecological balance of that
resource.
The Population Control Argument
• First: rapid growth in population means the spread of poverty
and aggravates conditions such as as poor health, malnutrition,
illiteracy, and unemployment (Bucharest, 1974)
• Second: population threatens government stability in developing
countries, and encourages confrontation between developed
and developing countries (Memorandum 200)
• Third: it pushes future generations to scarcity, and an
unsustainable environment carrying capacity (Rio, 1992)
• Fourth: it sees population growth to be symptomatic of the
larger problem of women's oppression—the more children a
woman has, the less opportunity she has for her own selfactualization and development (Cairo, 1994 and Beijing, 1995)
Expenditure on Grant-Financed Development Activities
of the United Nations System by Sector
(Percentage of Total)
20
15
10
5
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
0
19
90
Percentage of Total
25
Year
Population
T ransport
Science and T echnology
Energy
Communications
Employment
Industry
T rade and Development
Aging Population: The Case of
China
• No debate over if or when an aging population will manifest
itself: by 2015 the labor supply will begin to shrink and by
2035 China will have a reversed age pyramid.
• From 2000 to 2025, people above 65 will triple while youngsters
under 15 will increase by only 6%.
• The dependency ratio (defined as the percentage of the
population aged 65+ over the percentage of the population
aged 15-64) will increase from an average of 50% in 1995, to an
average of 85%-90% by the year 2050.
• Today in China only 44.9 % of the urban employees and 85.4
% of the retirees covered.
Age Distribution
China’s Population Distribution, 2007
over 65 7.9%
15-64
71.7%
0-14
20.4%
0%
Source: World Factbook, 2008
20%
40%
60%
80%
China’s Population Distribution
(year 2050)
Colombia’s Population Distribution, 2007
Age
65+
5.40%
15-64
64.80%
0-14
29.80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Percent
Popluation Percentage
Colombia. CIA World Factbook, 2008
60%
70%
Speed of Population Aging
Number of years for % of population aged 65 and over to rise from 7% to 14%
Colombia
Brazil
Thailand
Tunisia
S ri Lanka
Jamaica
Chile
S ingapore
China
Japan
Azerbaijan
S pain
United Kingdom
Poland
Hungary
Canada
United S tates
Australia
S weden
France
20
21
22
23
23
24
25
27
27
26
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000
41
45
45
47
53
65
69
73
85
115
Aging Trap
• Social security system funding: the family cannot support
the elderly
• Competition between the younger and older people
• Early retirement
• To provide for the economic needs of the elderly, there is a
reduction of funding allocated to training new generations
• The transmission of cultural, scientific, technical, artistic,
moral, and religious goods is endangered: "moroseness”
results. Add to this immigration.
• Saving rates are affected by a society's age structure,
mirroring the change in an individual's saving rate over the
life cycle.
Conclusion
• Neo-Malthusian application to global warming is seriously
flawed according to data on emissions and pollution rates.
• Policy reactions based in neo-Malthusian theory will be
equally compromising and possibly damaging.
• Pollution is not a matter of preventing but regulating
efficiently through the free-market.
• On Population, the Neo-Malthusian approach is also seriously
flawed on many levels and policy actions based on such
assumptions are inefficient and damage real sustainable
development. They lead to the again population trap of a one
child policy.
Conclusion
• The misplaced focus on population size instead of
real economic needs of the population have come at
the sacrifice of human capital, particularly in
developing nations.
Millions of people lack access to safe water,
sanitation, education, medical care and
infrastructure to meet needs.
Results in an inefficient use of resources.
• This is both inefficient and damaging to real long-
term economic growth – thus rendering this process
fruitless.