Ukrainian Emigration
to the EU:
Labour Market Perspective
Oleksandra Betliy
Warsaw, June 11, 2013
Content
• Ukraine: some facts
• Migration profile of Ukraine
• Visa policy
• Ukraine and the EU
• Migration policy
• Experts about future migration of Ukrainians to
the EU
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
2
3
Ukraine: some facts
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
4
Ukraine
Population: 45.6 millions as January
51.9 millions as January
Urban population: 69% of total
Share of children (0-14 years): 14%
21%
Share of people older than 65: 15%
12%
Life expectancy at birth: 71.0 years
including: females
75.9 years
males
66.0 years
1, 2012
1, 1991
of
of
of
of
total
total
total
total
in
in
in
in
2012
1991
2012
1991
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
5
Economic situation
Major shock: transformation from centrally planned
to market economy after the collapse of the USSR
real GDP
Source: Ukrstat
employment
real wage
real productivity
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
index, 1990 = 100
1990
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Unemployment patterns
3000
thousands persons
6
14
%
12
2500
10
2000
8
1500
6
1000
4
Source: Ukrstat
Unemployment rate,
% of economically
active population
(ILO), right scale
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
2002
0
2001
2
2000
500
Unemployed
economically active
population, thous.
persons (ILO)
Officially registered
unemployed, thous.
persons
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Coping mechanisms for households
• Engagement of informal activities
• Migration
• Risk aversion, including work after retirement, low
job mobility, readiness to work despite wage arrears
and forced part-time job, and high employment in
public sectors
• Downturn in consumption
• Family support and social safety nets
• Delayed payments for housing and utility services
• Households’ savings
• Development of small business
• Crime
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
7
8
Migration profile of Ukraine
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Migration profile of Ukraine
• 1.2 m individuals (3.4% of population in age between
15-70 years old) either worked or looked for a job
abroad in the period of January 2010 - June 2012
(results of recent Ukrstat’s survey)
– 98.2% of these individuals worked abroad, while the rest
looked for a job
– 4.8% and 2.2% of economically active men and women,
respectively, were labour migrants
– 2.2% and 6.3% of economically active individuals in
urban and rural areas, respectively, were labour migrants
– 64.9% of labour migrants had complete secondary
education. while 15.4% had tertiary education.
• Number of labour migrants reduced:
– Share of labour migrants in working labour force reduced
from 5.1% in 2005-2008 to 4.1% in 2010-2012
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
9
Migration profile of Ukraine
Origin of labour migrants
North; 6,7
Center; 3,3
South; 8,6
East; 9,8
West; 71,6
Source: Ukrstat survey
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
10
Migration profile of Ukraine
11
2010-2012
Other, 8.2
Portugal, 1.8
Hungary, 1.9
Spain, 4.5
Russia, 43.2
Czech, 12.9
2007-2008
Other, 10.1
Portugal, 2.6
Hungary, 3.2
Italy, 13.2
Spain, 2.7
Poland, 14.3
Russia, 48.1
Czech, 11.9
Italy, 13.4
Poland, 8.0
Source: Ukrstat survey
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Migration profile of Ukraine :
status of migrants
• Many migrants work
on seasonal works –
circular migration
without official
status, 16.7
• Between 2010-2012
one labour migrant
made on average 3
trips
tourist visa, 3.7
• Average length of
work – 5 months
• Frequency of home
visits depends on the
destination country
temporary
registration,
(due to visa regimes)
23.7
• High share of illegal
migrants
12
undefined
status, 4.4
work and
residence
permit, 38.7
work permit,
12.8
Source: Ukrstat survey
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Migration profile of Ukraine:
600
destination countries
thousand persons
13
Basic or primary education
500
Completed secondary
education
Basic high or uncompleted
high
Complete high
400
300
200
100
Source: Ukrstat survey
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Other
countries
Belarus
Portugal
Hungary
Germany
Spain
Czech
Republic
Italy
Poland
Russia
0
Migration profile of Ukraine:
60
14
sector of work
% of total number of working migrants
51.6
50
2007-2008
45.7
2010-2012
40
30
18.3
16.3
20
3.6
2.9 4.2
4.3 3.6
Other types of
economic
activity
5.4 4.2
Transport and
communication
8.1 9.1
Hotels and
Restaurants
10
11.3
8.5
2.9
Provision of
individual
services
Wholesale and
retail trade
Construction
Industry
Agriculture
0
Source: Ukrstat survey
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Migration profile of Ukraine
45
15
% of total
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Professionals, Employees in
technical staff
trade and
services
Skilled
Skilled workers Skilled workers
Simplest
agricultural
with
with industrial professions
workers
instruments
machines
Labour migrants, 2010-2012
Employed, 2011
Source: Ukrstat survey
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Migration profile of Ukraine:
skills mismatch
16
• Ukrainian labour market is characterized by high skills
mismatch. More than 50% of employed are formally
overqualified for their jobs
• On domestic market there is a oversupply of white-collar
workers, and a deficit of blue-collar skilled employees
• There is an evidence of occupational downshifting (‘brain
waste’) among Ukrainian migrants
• As a result, depleted human capital and lower productivity (if
these migrants return to Ukrainian labour market)
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Migration profile of Ukraine
Total
Women
1161
403.2
757.7
529.0
631.9
Equivalent occupation
28.7
10.9
38.1
32.8
25.2
Different from
qualification
23.7
28.0
21.4
29.0
19.2
With lower qualification
5.2
5.3
5.1
8.3
2.5
With higher qualification
2.6
2.8
2.4
2.9
2.3
At work, which does not
require qualification
39.5
53.0
32.3
26.6
50.2
0.3
-
0.7
0.4
0.6
Number of labour
migrants, thous. persons
Men
Urban
17
Rural
Including, %
Not defined
Source: Ukrstat survey
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Migration profile of Ukraine:
18
push factors
• In the beginning of 90s personal (including ethnic)
motives for migration dominated, while later migration
became labour-driven
• Major reasons for labour migration:
– Low employment opportunities
– Low earnings
– Unstable earnings (wage arrears, administrative leaves,
etc.)
– (At a lower degree) lack of protection of human rights
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Migration profile of Ukraine
Average wage in Ukraine
in 2010-2012:
USD 329
Distribution of earning in USD, %
Total,
thous.
pers.
<
250
251
500
501
1000
1001
2000
>200
0
19
Average
monthly
earnings,
USD,2010-12
Number of labour migrants
that reported earnings
1002
4.4
21.8
43.1
24.8
5.9
930
Russia
407.7
2.6
24.8
46.2
23.0
3.4
874
Poland
151.4
14.9
40.4
38.4
5.4
0.9
560
Italy
146.6
4.4
11.5
47.1
27.4
9.8
1056
Czech Republic
131.6
2.7
6.0
41.5
44.3
5.4
1137
Spain
43.5
-
19.8
49.4
26.7
3.9
943
Germany
27.8
-
-
25.5
25.5
48.9
1798
Hungary
19.6
-
-
70.9
29.1
-
969
Portugal
18.6
-
10.8
53.8
31.2
4.3
1019
Belarus
17.9
8.4
70.9
20.7
-
-
432
Other
37.7
-
20.2
16.7
46.7
16.2
1306
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Migration profile of Ukraine
20
• Impact of migration:
– Worsened demographic situation: near 1.1 m persons
emigrated – reduction of working-age population. Besides,
migration often means delay in childbirth
– Labour market impact:
• Brain drain and brain waste
• Likely reduces labour market pressure
– Often improves welfare of households through
remittances
• Remittances are mostly spent on everyday
consumption, purchase of durables
• 12% of migrant households spend remittances on
education
– Increase pressure to social security and health care
systems as temporary migrants don’t contribute to the
system, but demand services after return
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
21
Visa policy
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Visa policy
22
• Ukraine is encircled with substantial and non-symmetrical visa
barriers
• Visa barriers restrict migration flows (however, likely only to a
limited extent)
• Citizens of Ukraine can travel visa-free to 43 countries of the
world , mostly to CIS countries and the countries that intend to
attract tourists
• Visa policy of foreign countries towards citizens of Ukraine is
not always open and transparent
• According to a research by Ukrainian think-tanks, visa
practices of the consulates of the EU member states may be
divided into four groups: «friendly», «neutral», «contrasting»
and «problematic»
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Visa policy
Hungary,
Poland,
Slovakia,
Estonia
«Friendly»
visa practice
Germany, France,
Belgium, Finland,
Greece, Slovenia,
Portugal, the
Netherlands
«Contrasting»
(ambivalent)
visa practice
Latvia, Lithuania,
Spain, Sweden,
Austria, Denmark
EU
visa
practice
in Ukraine
«Neutral»
visa practice
Italy, Czech
Republic, Great
Britain
«Problematic»
visa practice
Source: Europe without barriers, Independent Monitoring Findings 2012
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
23
24
Ukraine and the EU
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Ukraine and the EU
25
• In November 2010 Ukraine received the Action Plan on Visa
Liberalization from the EU. The second block of elements of
the Action plan is “Illegal Migration, Including Readmission”,
which among others envisages following measures:
– Adoption of a National Migration Management Strategy for
effective implementation of the legal framework for migration
policy and an Action Plan;
– Establishment of a mechanism for the monitoring of migration
flows, defining a regularly updated migration profile for Ukraine.
• Future visa liberalisation will make it easier for Ukrainians to
travel to the EU countries and is expected to benefit Ukrainians
• In 2011 the National Action Plan on Visa Liberalization was
approved
• The EU has high concerns to visa liberalization due to
migration threats and large financial revenues from Consular
fees
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Ukraine and the EU
26
• Facilitation of movement of persons is also a separate
article in the Association Agreement
• In March 2012 Ukraine and the EU initialed the
Association Agreement, which envisages DCFTA. It
might be signed in November 2013 if Ukraine fulfills
requirements
• The AA envisages somewhat higher labour mobility
– The Parties shall take gradual steps towards a visa-free regime
in due course provided that the conditions for well-managed and
secure mobility, set out in the two-phase Action Plan on Visa
Liberalization presented at the EU-Ukraine Summit of 22
November 2010, are in place.
• Ukraine is likely to benefit from the AA in terms of
higher welfare
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
27
Migration policy
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Migration policy
28
• Ukraine’s migration regulatory framework improved recently:
– The Concept of Migration Policy of Ukraine was endorsed by the
Presidential Decree
– The Government approved Resolution “On Creation of a Single
National Database of Migration Flows Management”
– The State Migration Service was created in 2011 (however, it
still criticized for low institutional capacities)
• Without wide vision and deep understanding of the migration
situation in the country, migration legislation will not be
effective
• Protection of rights of Ukrainian migrants remains inadequate
• Effective system for collecting, processing and analyzing the
statistic and institutional data on migration of Ukrainians
abroad is absent
• As labour migration is high, Ukrainian migration policy should
make it legitimate and ensure protection (social and of
human rights) of labour migrants as well as envisage policies
for reintegration of returnees into society
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Migration policy
29
• Two government bodies are responsible for development and
implementation of migration policy in Ukraine
• The State Migration Service of Ukraine (SMSU), which is
subordinated to the Ministry of Internal Affairs
– responsible for registration of residents and non-residents
(including refugees), citizenship issues handling, combating
illegal migration and elaboration of migration policy
• The Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine.
– responsible for labour migration regulation
– Ukraine is a party to 13 bilateral agreements on
employment and social protection of migrant workers (with
Baltic States, Bulgaria, Spain, Libya, the Czech Republic,
Mongolia, Portugal, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and
Czech Republic)
– The implementation of existing agreements on social
protection is difficult due to lack of implementation
mechanisms, financial resources and qualified personnel →
the level of social protection of Ukraine’s labour migrants is
very low
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
30
Experts about future migration
of Ukrainians to the EU
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Future migration of Ukrainians to the EU 31
• The emigration flows might increase if economic and political
uncertainty in Ukraine surges
– Recently, the emigration mood of Ukrainians has expanded
• More young people consider opportunities to receive
education abroad. As degrees received abroad are not
directly transferable (the nostrifikation is required), this
creates additional pressure for such individuals to look for a
job abroad
• Visa regime with the EU is perceived to be a barrier for
tourism rather than for work abroad
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Future migration of Ukrainians to the EU: 32
visa liberalisation impact
• Experts (as revealed by several studies and interviews)
predominantly do not expect significant increase in migration
of Ukrainians to the EU after visa liberalization
• In particular, migration potential is limited – near 6% of
Ukrainians intended to leave the country for more than half a
year (3.7% defined the Schengen Area as their desired
destination). Only 1.5% planned labour migration or
permanent residency
• Number of legal migrants might increase due to legalisation
of currently illegal migrants
• We can expect an jump in migration due to family reunion of
formerly illegal migrants
 However, further research is needed to reveal more
thoroughly the impact of visa liberalisation on migration
flows from Ukraine
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Literature (selected)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
33
Coupe Tom. Vakhitova Hanna. Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between
the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report:
Ukraine, ENPI, February 15, 2013
Documents Security and Migration Policy: Assessments and
Recommendations of the International Working Groups for Ukraine, Policy
Paper, Europe Without Barriers, 2011
Implementation of Action Plan on Visa Liberalisation: a Case of Ukraine,
Independent Monitoring Findings, Policy Paper, Europe Without Barriers,
2012
Kipen V., Avksentyeva M., Migration Potential of Ukraine in the Context of
Visa Regime with the EU
Petrova Iryna. Social Impacts of Eurointegration of Ukraine: Labour Market.
October 2012 (in Ukrainian)
Poznyak Oleksiy. Social Impacts of Eurointegration of Ukraine: Migration.
October 2012 (in Ukrainian)
The EU Visa Policy in Ukraine: Independent Monitoring Findings 2012,
Monitoring paper, Europe Without Barriers, 2012
Ukraine: Extended Migration Profile, EC, 2011
Ukrstat presentations on the results of Migration survey - 2012, May 2013
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting – www.ier.com.ua
Contacts
Oleksandra Betliy
betliy@ier.kiev.ua
Institute for Economic Research
and Policy Consulting
Reytarska str. 8/5-А. Kyiv 01034
Ukraine
tel. (+38-044) 278-6360. 278-6342
Fax (+38-044) 278-6336
www.ier.com.ua
institute@ier.kiev.ua