FAST
European Commercial Aviation Safety Team (ECAST)
Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST)
Generic Presentation – “Draft”March 2007
A European Safety Strategy Initiative (ESSI)
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 1
FAST
PURPOSE
• Explanation
– JSSI/ESSI/ECAST context
– What is FAST?
– What it’s not…
• Present “FAST Method”
• Provide overview of
process & results
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 2
FAST
EXPLANATION
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
HISTORY - JSSI TERMS OF REFERENCE
FOCUS AREAS
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION
RISK MANAGEMENT MODEL
FAST CHARTER
ESSI/ECAST IS SUCESSOR OF JSSI
SUMMARY OF FAST PRODUCTS
PROBLEM APPOACH
FUTURE AREAS OF CHANGE
WHAT THE FAST IS AND IS NOT…
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 3
FAST
HISTORY – JSSI Terms of Reference
• Reduce the annual number of
accidents and fatalities in each
JAA member state and its
operators irrespective of the
growth in air traffic
• Focused safety agenda with
deliverables
• Partnership + cooperation +
communication + implementation
• Structured complementary
approaches, leading for:
– Historic
FAA/CAST
– Prognostic JAA/JSSI
Reference JAA website http://www.jaa.nl/jssi/profile.html
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 4
FAST
FOCUS AREAS
CAST

Uncontained Engine Failures

Turbulence
75% of all
commercial
aviation accidents
1994-2003
COMMON JSSI - CAST

Controlled Flight into Terrain

Approach & Landing

Loss of Control

Weather

Runway incursions
JSSI
•
•
•
Design Related
Future Aviation Safety
Occupant Safety & Survivability
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 5
FAST
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION
Retrospective
(Historic & Diagnostic)
• Historic & current operational
data exist
• Expertise and experience exist
• Current analysis tools can:
– Identify hazards
– Define their causal factors
– Establish frequencies (risk)
– Provide learning
• Establishes the baseline
• Provides validation for predictive
risk assessment techniques
Predictive
(Prognostic - FAST)
• No operational data exist, but
conclusions can be drawn from
current & future trends
• No experts or experience exist
but domain experts know “what
keeps them up at night”
• Qualitative hazard identification:
– Predict likely hazards
– Identify possible causal
factors
• Quantitative risk assessment
adds:
– Refinement of probable
causal factors & estimate of
frequencies
– Bases for focused studies
using computational &
human-in-the-loop
simulations
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 6
RISK MANAGEMENT MODEL SUGGESTED BY FAST
FAST
INTERVENTION&INNOVATION
Design
Operations
Investment
etc.
Prediction &
Refined Causal
Analyses
PROGNOSTIC “FUTURES”
FEEDBACK LOOP
DIAGNOSTIC FEEDBACK
LOOP
HISTORIC FEEDBACK
LOOP
-
RAPID
RESPONSE
Systematic
measurement, hazard
qualification &
quantification and/or
scenario-specific Monte
Carlo simulations
Strategic Use
Determine contributing
factors & severity
Historic & Causal
Analysis
Identify Events
Convert to Information
Gather, codify, classify, & merge
Heterogeneous ACCIDENT DATA
Evaluate frequency
& severity
Tactical
Use
Statistical & Causal
Analysis
Identify Patterns
Convert to Information
Monitor, codify, classify, & merge
Heterogeneous INCIDENT & OPERATIONAL DATA
Predict domains
& severity
Future Hazard
Analysis
Identify Trends
Convert to Information
Codify, classify, & merge
FUTURE CHANGES
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 7
FAST Charter
FAST
Vision
• Identify possible future hazards to the safety of aviation in
order to prevent those hazards from appearing within the
future aviation system.
Mission
• Enable individuals or organizations and in particular the
ESSI/ECAST, to evaluate proposed changes to the aviation
system, identify hazards that may be created by such
changes and by interaction effects, and subsequently
develop mitigating actions.
Goal
• To prevent aviation accidents by eliminating or mitigating
future hazards.
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 8
European Aviation Safety Agency
ESSI by EASA has succeeded
to JSSI by JAA
During the JAA – EASA transition,
EASA has begun to build up the
European Strategic Safety Initiative
(ESSI) in 2005
ESSI foundation meeting took place
on April 27 2006 and the JSSI-ESSI
handover was performed on June 28
2006
January 31, 2007
European Aviation Safety Agency
The 3 ESSI Pillars
3 pillars
Commercial Aviation (ECAST)
Working with CAST
 Partnership

Rotorcraft (EHEST)
Working in IHST
 Partnership

General Aviation (EGAST)
Safety Committee
 Promotion

Consistent approach to safety risk
management
January 31, 2007
European Aviation Safety Agency
ESSI / ECAST Construction
27 April 2006
Foundation group: Bring the parties together
13 July 2006
Making a charter
12 October 2006
Agree foundation documents
13 & 14 December 2006
Establishing a work programme
FAST reconducted as a Working Group of ECAST
2007
Full schedule of activities
January 31, 2007
European Aviation Safety Agency
Where FAST fits in ESSI
COORDINATION
GROUP
ECAST
COMMERCIAL
AVIATION SAFETY
TEAM
FAST
Other
WORKING
GROUPS
January 31, 2007
EHEST
HELICOPTER SAFETY
TEAM
WORKING
GROUPS
Open and Closed
Forums
EGEST
GENERAL AVIATION
SAFETY TEAM
WORKING
GROUPS
1. Assess and
Prioritise
Accident Risks
European Aviation
Safety
Agency
ECAST
Process
and Causal factors in Europe (yearly revised)
2. Identify and Review Safety Programmes
Main FAST Input:
Top Emerging
and Future risks
3. Define Safety Performance Metrics
C
O
M
M
U
N
I
C
A
T
I
O
N
4. Define Safety Enhancement Objectives
5. Institute Safety Programmes
6. Make Recommendations for
Safety Enhancements
7. Perform Costs Benefits Analysis
8. Develop Action Plans
9. Implement Action Plans and
Monitor Implementation
10. Monitor Action Plans Efficacy
to Achieve Safety Objectives
Mid Term Programme Review - 2012
January 31, 2007
C
O
O
R
D
I
N
A
T
I
O
N
FAST
FAST Summary of Results
• A structured methodology incorporated into a formal
handbook.
• A prioritized list of Areas of Change [AoC].
• Two applications/tests of the methodology:
– Recommendations resulting from the study of the AOC “Increasing
Crew Reliance on Cockpit Automation”, e.g. related to the Air Ground
Space System [AGS]
– Results from the study of future hazards generated by the concept of
operations for 2011developed by EUROCONTROL.
• A FAST website
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 14
FAST
PROBLEM APPROACH
Has it caused
Historic
0
informs intervention
prevents
prevents
0
0
1
1
0
0
informs intervention
1
0
1
1
1
0
informs intervention
prevents
Diagnostic
0
Is it known?
1
1
more
e.g. Regulation, Product Improvement, CAST, accidents
ECAST, company safety (e.g. SRP) processes,
FSF/ALAR tool kit, Human factors tool kit etc.
1
discovers
0
Prognostic
Design of new
Aviation System
components or
practices
an accident?
Prognostic
discovers
Does it exist yet?
Discovery
Processes
Diagnostic
e.g. ASAP, COSP,
e.g. Emergent,
FAST, etc.
ISDSR, LOSA,
FOQA, ISDSR,
ASRS, SRB.
ECCAIRS, ODA
etc.
discovers
Intervention
Processes
Historic
e.g. Accident
Investigation
1 = yes, 0 = no
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 15
Spectrum and Magnitude of Areas of Change
Affecting the Future Aviation System
FUTURE AREAS OF CHANGE
FAST
AoC a phase out of Gen I transports
AoC b
AoC c
Introduction of UAV’s
AoC d
AoC e
AoC f
AoC g
AoC h
AoC i
AoC j
AoC k
advent of very-light jets
AoC l
t
Past
NOW
2010
2015
2020
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 16
FAST
IMPORTANCE OF IDENTIFYING
AREAS OF CHANGE…
The future is not necessarily a direct extrapolation of the past.
Present and near-term safety interventions that are intended to prevent future
accidents caused by previously known hazards may not be enough to prevent
new types of accidents from happening in the future.
A mid-1990’s study by a major manufacturer looked at accidents in
which airplane systems were involved in an accident or where
they could have prevented the event and did not. It was found that
in approximately 70% of the accidents involving airplane systems,
the original design assumptions were inadequate for the situation
existing at the time of the accident due to changes in…
- the aviation system
- airplane operational usage
- personnel demographics
- evolving infrastructure or other considerations.
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 17
CHANGING NATURE OF ACCIDENTS
FAST
“Technological innovations are changing both aircraft and the
airspace in which they operate. Cumulatively, these technological changes
aim to increase reliability throughout the aviation system and vastly improve safety in
the skies. These changes include systems designed to move aircraft more efficiently in
the air and on the ground, methods for providing pilots and ground controllers with
better information about traffic and weather conditions, and improvements in aircraft
components and design.
“The growth in aircraft system complexity is exponential in many
areas, with the most significant trend being the interconnectedness of systems. Current-generation aircraft operate as highly
integrated systems with extensive cross-linking. As system complexity grows, so does
the concern about hidden design flaws or possible equipment defects.
“Accidents involving complex systems and events present
investigators with new and different failure modes that multiply
the number of potential scenarios they must consider. The
historically common causes of accidents are occurring less frequently, leaving more
challenging accidents to diagnose.” *
* - Safety in the Skies Personnel and Parties in NTSB Aviation Accident Investigations-Master Volume, Chapter
Three: Emerging Aviation Trends: Potential Impact on Aircraft Accident Investigations, By: Liam P. Sarsfield,
William Stanley, Cynthia C. Lebow, Emile Ettedgui, Garth Henning, published in 2000
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 18
Areas of Change: Some Principles
FAST
• Changes must be understood as broadly as
possible.
• To bring consistency and coherence to the process,
Areas of Change are grouped by categories.
• The diagram on the next sheet illustrates the eleven
broad categories of Areas of Change affecting
aviation identified by the FAST
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 19
FAST AREAS OF CHANGE CATEGORIES
FAST
Count
Category
29
Aircraft
11
Maintenance, Repairs, Overhaul
19
Operations
21
Crew
7
Passenger
10
Organization
12
Authority
22
Air Navigation System
7
Airport
35
Environment
5
Space Operations
AIRCRAFT
SPACE
OPERATIONS
MAINTENANCE,
REPAIRS,
OVERHAUL
ENVIRONMENT
GLOBAL
AVIATION
SYSTEM
AIRPORT
AIR
NAVIGATION
SYSTEM
OPERATIONS
CREW
PASSENGER
___
AUTHORITY
ORGANIZATION
179
Total Areas of Change
as of 24 February 2006
The FAST continuously solicits submission of new, candidate AoC’s via the process shown in Backup Charts.
Submissions should be made to Rudi den Hertog, Chief Engineer, Fokker Services, FAST Co-chair, rudi.denhertog@stork.com
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 20
What is an Area of Change
FAST
• The Global Aviation System (GAS) is in fact a "system of
systems."
• Examples of "systems" include
– airplanes,
– air traffic control systems,
– company processes, and
– regulatory systems.
• The future GAS will be fundamentally different than what
exists today because changes affecting the GAS will
continuously occur as the system evolves into the future.
• The ongoing process of change including both
evolutionary and sudden, disruptive events or paradigm
shifts must be considered for effective safety risk
management.
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 21
Distributed multi agent system
•Free routing/free flight
•New airspace classification
•4-D dimensional trajectories
2020 situation
•Integrated Air Ground Space System
• Operates during all phases of flight
• Communicates through data link
FAST
Air Ground Space System
Civil aerospace challenges
•Increased aerospace capacity
• Better respect of the environment
(“sustainable growth” approach)
• improved safety
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 22
FAST
Importance
• It is important that aviation practitioners who are
designing future systems have foreknowledge of
potential future hazards.
• A change to any one system could affect other
systems. Interactions of future changes to several
systems could likewise affect the whole.
• These changes could have adverse impacts on the
safety of the Global Aviation System.
• The goal of "discovering" future hazards is to
eliminate, avoid or mitigate hazards in the future
that may arise as a result of the changes. This will
reduce the risk of future incidents and accidents.
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 23
FAST
WHAT’S FAST?
•
•
•
•
•
OBJECTIVES
WHAT’S SO SPECIAL?
WHAT FAST IS AND WHAT NOT
COMPOSITION
CORE TEAM
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 24
FAST
OBJECTIVES of the FAST method
Studying potential future changes in the Aerospace System
in order to :
• Identify relevant Areas of Change [AoC] either within or
external to the aviation system
• Identify Hazards, both inherent to the AoC as well as
those arising from interaction with other AoC’s
• Develop recommendations to eliminate hazards or
mitigate their effects, such as:
•
•
Tools to analyze and mitigate the hazards including studies
and simulations to quantify the risks of identified hazards
Providing probable hazard information to influence entities that
shape the future
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 25
FAST
DISTINCTIVE CHARACTERISTICS
• Concept of considering a comprehensive set of “Areas of
Change” affecting aviation safety
• Using a broad representation of domain experts representing
diverse affected organizations within an Expert Team hazarddiscovery setting looking for direct and indirect hazards
• Direct- as well as Indirect hazard(s) identification, with indirect
hazards resulting from interaction among AoC’s within a novel
future operational scenario - identifies hazard catalysts not
ammenable to computational modeling
• Maintaining and providing to the aviation community an up-todate repository of AoC’s, possible aviation futures, Technology
Watch Items & hazards.
• Offering a Future Hazard Analysis method that can be used
universally by any organization
• Having a FAST Core Team ready to assist Customers using its
Future Hazard Analysis method
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 26
What the FAST is and is not…
FAST
The FAST process is a systematic approach to identification of:
– Wide range of changes affecting aviation safety (AoC’s)
– Systemic vulnerabilities and hazards within highly integrated systems
– Boundary aspects not only within aviation but external to it that may
be the catalysts for future hazards including common cause factors
and interactions
The FAST process is not a risk assessment method - that is, it
doesn’t estimate relative frequency of hazards.
The FAST generally does not recommend or develop safety
interventions - FAST can feed Risk Assessment and Risk
Management processes in which safety interventions are
developed and implemented, and action efficacy is
monitored. These are best left to the customers.
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 27
FAST
COMPOSITION
•
•
MEMBERS from
DGAC, CAA-UK, CAA-NL, ENAC, EASA,
Civil Aircraft Inspection Board of Poland,
ASD, EC/Joint Research Centre, EUROCONTROL,
ERA/EASYJET, IFALPA/SAS Norway, IAPA, IFA, Air
Transport Association of Canada, NASA
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Fokker, Rockwell Collins
CORE TEAM is driving force, meeting approximately
quarterly
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 28
FAST
FAST METHOD
• DEFINITIONS
–
–
–
–
CUSTOMERS
STAKEHOLDERS
EXPERT TEAMS
TECHNOLOGY WATCH ITEMS
• PROCESS FLOWS
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 29
DEFINITIONS:
FAST
CUSTOMERS are organizations that have
authority to either recommend or implement
changes to the Global Aviation System
initiate changes
STAKEHOLDERS are organizations that may
be impacted by an envisioned change to the
Global Aviation System
affected by changes
EXPERT TEAM
• Drawn from Customer & Stakeholder
organizations
• Selected by FAST and Customer
collaboratively based on the envisioned
future being considered
• Must have specific expertise associated with
the future being evaluated
• No experience with FAST method required
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 30
DEFINITIONS, cont.
FAST
TECHNOLOGY WATCH ITEMS
• A repository of tell-tale advances in technology and other relevant
factors that may indicate which possible aviation future is unfolding
and thereby signal if postulated direct hazards and/or indirect
hazards (interaction hazards) are coming about.
• To be revisited after significant events (incidents & accidents) and
be part of risk assessment plans.
• Maintained for the benefit of the worldwide aviation community
similar to the CAST Problem Statements.
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 31
Expert Team
Responsibility
FAST Core Team
Responsibility
Customer/
Stakeholder
Responsibility
FAST Methodology / Process
1.
Responsible Party Proposes
Change(s) to Global Aviation
System; recognizes need for
systematic prediction of
hazard(s) associated with
changes and need to design
potential hazards out of system
or avoid or mitigate hazard(s)
2.
Define Scope of
Expert Team
HazardIdentification
Study
3.
Assemble
an Expert
Team
Advocate the
FAST Philosophy
Commission
Expert Teams
Guide FAST
Facilitators
Maintain Areas
of Change
Repository
Maintain
Futures &
Watch Items
Enhance the
FAST Method
4.
Understand Customer
Requirements and
Future of Interest
5. (optional)
Identify Intrinsic
Hazards Within
Future of Interest
Enhance and/or
Modify Planned
Changes
6.
Identify Areas of
Change Pertinent to
Future of Interest
7.
Enrich Hazards by
Evaluating Interactions
with Areas of Change
8. (optional)
Identify Mitigations &
Effects of Areas of
Change on Mitigations
10.
Inform FAST &
Customers
Regarding results
9.
Formulate
Recommendations
& Identify Watch
Items
FAST
OVERVIEW of PROCESS & RESULTS
Work progressed in phases:
– Phase I (Oct/99-Sep/00): Established
methodology, identified 157 changes
affecting the aviation system.
– Phase II (Nov/00-July/01): Prioritised
Areas of Change
– Phase III (Oct/01-Jan/04): Analysed
highest priority Area of Change:
Increasing Reliance on Flight Deck
Automation
– Phase IV (Feb 05-Mar06) : Recheck/update AoC list, develop
Process Handbook/Generic
Presentation/Public Website,
– Phase V (Mar 06-July 06: ConOps
2011 analysis [ANS-1].
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 33
FAST
OVERVIEW OF RESULTS
•
•
•
•
TOP 4 AREAS OF CHANGE
SYNTHESIS FROM TOP 20 AoC
PHASE III OUTPUT
ConOps 2011 [ANS-1] ANALYSIS
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 34
FAST
TOP 4 AREAS OF CHANGE
PRIORITISED & CATEGORIZED FROM CURRENT LIST OF 179
•
Increasing Crew Reliance on Flight Deck Automation (Aircraft)
•
Emergence of New Concepts for Airspace Management (Air
Navigation System)
•
Introduction of New Technologies with Unforeseen Human Factors
Aspects (Crew)
•
Proliferation of Heterogeneous Aircraft with Widely-varying
Equipment and Capabilities (Aircraft)
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 35
FAST
SYNTHESIS FROM TOP 20 AREAS OF CHANGE
1. Introduction of new air, ground, and satellite-based automated
systems
2. Increased heterogeneity of: aircraft types & flight capabilities,
equipage & software, airspace utilization approaches, and
development directions & timelines for airborne, ground, and
space-based aviation support systems
3. Increase in absolute numbers of aviation operations and
corresponding reduction in safety margins as a result of:
increased demand, decreased separation and more frequent
operation in or near adverse weather conditions
4. Ensuring adequate maintenance of air- and ground-based
systems in an environment of increased outsourcing of work,
increased complexity of hardware, firmware & software, and a
shortage of qualified maintenance personnel
Common threads as they appeared within the 2001 top 20 AoC synthesis.
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 36
PHASE III OUTPUT
FAST
Analysis of highest priority AoC:
Increasing Crew Reliance on
Flight Deck Automation:
– Identification/prioritisation
of hazards
– Development and
prioritisation of
recommendations
addressing most important
hazards
– Introduction of Technology
Watch Items
– Present the methodology
used and lessons-learned
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 37
Eurocontrol’s FAST – ConOps Workshops
FAST
ConOps is the Eurocontrol
Concept of Operation for 2011
FAST was tasked to identify
future hazards in ConOps
Two workshops held (6-9 June and 17-20
July 2006) with European and US experts
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 38
FAST
CONOPS 2011 - CONTENT
Concept of Operations 2011
 Description of the ATM System in 2011 - the Main Changes
 The ATM Components, OI’s and System Enablers
 The ATM Operational Model
 The Key Enablers – SWIM, the Network Operations Plan and
Collaborative Decision Making
 The Principles of the Layered Planning Process
Air Traffic
Airspace
Organisation &
Management
Airport
Operations
Flow &
Capacity
Management
Information
Management &
Services
Separation
Assurance
Airspace
User
Operations
High-Level System Capabilities
 Business Impact Statements
 Annexes
The Actors – Roles and Responsibilities
 Operational Scenarios and Use cases
Synchronisation
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 39
FAST – ConOps Evaluation:
From EUROCONTROL final comments

Lessons learned
 Very useful exercise
 Hazards identified may allow improving ConOps
 Pass results to SESAR, maybe a FAST customer
 FAST methodology requires further development

Subsequent development
 FAST Handbook upgraded
 Clarification of AoC use for:
 Hazard Identification / Enrichment
 Mitigations
 Link to classical Risk Assessment Methods
 Transferable methodology
FAST
FAST Website
FAST
http://fast.jrc.it/
http://fast.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
Under development
Final URL
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 41
FAST
An essential element of a safety strategy
 Future hazards can not be entirely extrapolated
from the past
 There is a need to address future changes and
hazards in safety today
 FAST offers a method of worldwide interest
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 42
FAST
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
For FAST Output Status see
http://fast.jrc.it
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 43
BACKUP CHARTS
FAST
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 44
Acronyms
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
ADREP
AoC
AGS
ANSP
ATC
AWOS
CAST
CICTT
ConOps
•
•
•
•
ConOps
ESSI
ECAST
ECCAIRS
FAST
ICAO Accident/Incident Data Reporting System
Area of Change developed by FAST
Air Ground Space System
Air Navigation Service Provider
Air Traffic Control
Automatic Weather Observation System
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (North America)
CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team
In FAST context: Eurocontrol’s Concept of Operations for
2011
General: air traffic providers concept of operations
European Safety Strategy Initiative
European Commercial Aviation Safety Team (EuroCAST)
European Co-ordination Centre for Aviation Incident
Reporting Systems
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 45
Acronyms - continued
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
FAST
GTG
ICAO
JAA
JSSI
JSAT
JSIT
JPDO
•
•
•
•
NGATS
SESAR
TCAS
TAWS
FAST
Future Aviation Safety Team
Gate-to-Gate
International Civil Aviation Organization
Joint Aviation Authorities (Europe)
JAA Safety Strategy Initiative
Joint Safety Analysis Team (CAST)
Joint Safety Implementation Team (CAST)
Joint Planning and Development Office (part of NGATS in
USA)
Next Generation Air Transportation System (USA)
Single European Sky ATM Research Programme
Traffic Collision Avoidance System
Terrain Avoidance Warning System
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 46
FAST Contribution to CAST Safety Plan
Introducing and integrating the Prospective component of safety
Accident
Analysis JSATS
“Historic”
Accident
JSIT’s
Safety
Enhancements
FAST
CAST
Plan
CAST Plan
Revision
Master
Contributing
Factors
Safety
Metrics
Incident Analysis
Process
“Historic”
Operational
Data Analysis
(NASA ISDSR)
“Diagnostic”
Emerging
Risk
Remaining
Risk
JSA/IT
JIMDAT
Process
Enhancements
Changing
Risk
Aviation
System
Changes
Yes
Predictive Analysis
(FAST & FST)
“Prognostic”
External
Changes
Present
In Master
Factors?
Identify Future
Hazards
B. Smith; 2/7/06
Identify
Causal
Factors
No
Develop
Contributing
Factors
(new or
emerging)
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 47
Area of Change (AoC) Submission Process
FAST
Continuous Call
For New Aoc’s
Refine Wording
& Add Descriptive
Comments
Candidate
AoC
External Group or Individual
FAST Core Team
Comparison with
Existing AoC List
New?
yes
no
Evaluate for
Potential to
Enrich Existing
AoC’s
Review for
FAST Consistency
Okay?
no
yes
Concatenate
to Existing
AoC List
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 48
FAST
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 49
FAST
Examples of global Air Ground Space system Technology Watch Items
Theme I
• Development of system using Artificial Intelligence (e.g. neural nets,
fuzzy logic).
• Development of “intelligent” aircraft (with systems of smart sensors,
microprocessors and adaptive control that monitor operator
performance, environment and automatically avoid hazardous situations)
• Emergence of computational capabilities and monitoring systems that
could replace conventional air traffic control functions
• Development of “intelligent” vehicles (e.g. smart cars) as cross
fertilisation may affect aviation
• Collaborative decision making (CDM); Computer Support to Cooperative
Work (CSCW)
• eSafety of road and air transport and eHealth, Multimodal Interfaces,
Semantic-based knowledge systems, technology-enhanced learning
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 50
Example* of how Customer Vision of Future would have been
used in past…
FAST
If at some point in the past, a study of the potential future hazards related to Reduced Vertical
Separation Minima (RVSM) had been conducted, the Expert Team performing the analysis
would likely have needed to generate the following description of the potential consequences
of implementation of RVSM in order to extract potential future hazards…
"Assuming that each airplane has physical enhancements and each crew has
procedures to properly manage vertical separation less than current rules, we believe
that increased collision hazard is not likely. There however is a slight hazard increase
due to wake turbulence descending from overhead airplanes and causing loss of
control of encountering aircraft. We therefore recommend that there a study be done of
all existing airplanes to determine the likelihood of a strong cruise wake descending to
flight levels occupied by other aircraft, minus the altitude uncertainty. Altitude
uncertainty must be considered and quantified in the study however, because actual
separation may be much less than the candidate reduced value. We also recommend
review of TCAS/ACAS protection with the FAA to ensure that the TCAS will not
significantly contribute to collision likelihood. We want to avoid TCAS causing an
accident. We hear however that the Military will be fielding new navigation technology,
GPS, which if applied to civilian airplanes, will significantly increase the lateral
precision with which airplanes will fly intended airways. Airplanes will then be closer to
each other vertically and laterally. In this case, collision and/or wake vortex upset risk
may significantly increase. If you see intentions to adopt GPS technology for civil
transport navigation (watch item), then we recommend that studies are conducted and
the Industry agrees to mitigating practices such as intentional cross-track stagger.
Care should be taken when doing so to ensure that wind direction is considered in the
study."
* - purely hypothetical; not representative of FAST recommendations
FAST Generic Presentation March, 2007. 51