Commercial Aviation
Safety Team
(CAST)
Plan & Metrics
Agenda
 Executive Overview of CAST Progress
 Historical Background
 Progress to Date

Annual Safety Plan

Inclusion of R & D

Business model
 Action Plan
 Garner support for continued CAST activities
CAST Origin
In the U.S., our focus was set by the
White House Commission on Aviation Safety
1.1 Government and industry
should establish a national
goal to reduce the aviation
fatal accident rate by a factor
of five within ten years and
conduct safety research to
support that goal
1.2 The FAA should develop
standards for continuous
safety improvement, and
should target its regulatory
resources based on
performance against those
standards
5.3-2
The National Civil Aviation Review
Commission (NCARC)
on Aviation Safety Provided Additional Direction
• FAA and the aviation industry
must develop a strategic plan
to improve safety, with specific
priorities based on objective,
quantitative analysis of safety
information and data
• Government should expand on
their programs to improve
aviation safety in other parts of
the world
5.3-3
In Response



Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies
Initiatives were Combined into CAST
Data-Driven, Consensus-Based,
Integrated Strategic Safety Plan
Developed
In place and fully supported by
Government and Industry with
Worldwide Recognition - “CAST”
Historical Part 121 Fatality Risk (1987-2000)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
ac
Ev
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ule
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om
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F
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Inc
ew
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D
ir
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nw
ay
LO
C
llis
ion
n
sio
Ru
Fir
e/E
x
plo
IT
CF
Flt
LO
C
To
ta
l
Fatality Risk
Excluding all
security events
Safer Skies
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
GENERAL AVIATION
Aeronautical
Decisionmaking
Loss of Control
Controlled Flight
Into Terrain
CABIN SAFETY
Loss of Control
Uncontained
Engine Failures
Weather
Passenger Interference
Passenger Seat Belt Use
Runway Incursion
Controlled Flight
Into Terrain
Approach and
Landing
Carry-on Baggage
Child Restraint
Survivability
Weather
Runway Incursions
IMPROVED DATA
& ANALYSIS
Turbulence
HUMAN FACTORS
IN OPERATIONS &
MAINTENANCE
CAST Goals

Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal
accident rate by 80% by 2007

Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO,
IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international
organizations and appropriate regulatory/
government authorities to reduce worldwide
commercial aviation fatal accident rate
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
Industry
AIA
Airbus
ALPA
APA
ATA
NACA
Boeing
P&W*
RAA
FSF
IATA
AAPA
ATAC
APFA
Government
Commercial Aviation
Safety Team
(CAST)
DOD
FAA
•
•
•
•
•
Aircraft Certification
Flight Standards
System Safety
Air Traffic Operations
Research
NASA
ICAO
JAA
TCC
NATCA
*Representing GE and RR
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
CAST
Joint Safety
Analysis Teams (JSAT)
Joint Safety
Implementation
Teams (JSIT)
Joint Implementation
Measurement Data
Analysis Team (JIMDAT)
• Data analyses
• Safety
enhancement
development
• Master safety plan
• Enhancement
effectiveness
• Future areas of study
CAST
A Three-Stage Process
Data
Analysis
Implement Safety
Enhancements U.S.
Set Safety
Priorities
Agree on
problems and
interventions
Achieve
consensus on
priorities
Influence Safety
Enhancements Worldwide
Integrate into
existing work
and distribute
Additional Safer Skies Activities

Although the primary purpose of our
briefing focuses on CAST, there are other
Safer Skies focus areas:
– General Aviation Joint Steering Committee
(JSC)
– Cabin Safety
Integrated Strategic Safety Plan





Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated Strategic
Safety Plan Developed
– 46 Prioritized Safety Enhancements
– 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies
46 safety enhancements optimized to include those actions
with the best effectiveness vs. resource relationships - 22
complete/24 committed and underway
Initially combines short-term “liveware”-based
enhancements with transition to design change
enhancements long term
Projected 73% Risk Reduction by 2007 (75% by 2020)
Foundation for U.S-supported continuous improvements
in worldwide aviation safety
CAST Safety Plan
Completed Safety Enhancements











Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)
CFIT Standard Operating Procedures
Precision approach implementation (PAI) Vertical Angles –
Increase constant angle approaches
Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems
Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)
CFIT Crew Resource Management (CRM) training
CFIT Prevention training
Air Traffic Controller CFIT training
PAI-VGSI at runway ends
PAI-DME at airports
RI SOPs
– Ground Operations (General Aviation)
– Tow tug operators
– ATC
Completed Safety Enhancements (cont’d)

Safety Culture
– Industry will include essential safety information in the
appropriate airline manuals (i.e., training programs)
– FAA inspectors will utilize the Aircraft Flight Manual
(AFM) database
– CEO and Director of Safety (DOS) more visible

Maintenance Procedures
– FAA published guidance on:



Servicing landing struts
Surveillance of maintenance subcontractors
Minimum Equipment List (MEL) (covers recurring
maintenance events)
– Air Carriers’ Directors of Safety completed internal surveys
to verify guidance was being followed


ALAR Flight crew training
Uncontained Engine Failures
– FAA issued Airworthiness Directives requiring the
Inspection of High-Energy Rotating Parts
Committed Plan Elements

Policies and Procedures
– Industry will develop/implement Risk Management tools
– Industry will develop a process to inform personnel/flight crew of critical
safety information
– Industry will develop a process to enhance flight crew proficiency
– FAA/Industry will develop standard operating procedures for loss of control
related accidents

Aircraft Design
– FAA will issue guidance on Continuing Airworthiness
– FAA will issue guidance on Critical System Maintenance
– FAA will amend guidance to include recommendations surrounding autoflight
designs for new type designs
– Manufacturers will implement Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades for new type
designs (i.e. interactive checklists)
– FAA/JAA will amend guidance to include recommendations regarding
Displays and Alerting Systems for new designs
– Manufacturers agree to install Vertical Situation Displays in new aircraft
– FAA/JAA will issue amended icing certification criteria for criteria for new
airplane designs not equipped with evaporative systems
– Manufacturers agree to install Flight Envelope Protection in new type designs
Committed Plan Elements (cont.)

Runway Incursions
– Enhanced airport surveillance equipment
– Standard operating procedures (SOPs)
• Ground operations (121/135)
• Vehicle operators
 Clearance readback requirements
– Training
• Pilots
• ATC
- Enhanced Tower Controller Training
- CRM
Committed Plan Elements (cont.)

Flight Crew Training
– Advanced Maneuvers Training will be provided by all
operators
– Industry will incorporate a human factors-related
training guide into training programs and SOPs

Precision approach implementation (PAI)
FAA and Industry will develop:
– Recommended procedures, displays and training that
will enable pilots of commercial aircraft to fly a
stabilized vertical path to the runway for all instrument
approaches
– Criteria and guidance for reduced landing minima
– Laterally and vertical guided approach paths to runway
ends not served by Instrument Landing System (ILS)
CAST R&D Plan

CFIT – Synthetic Vision Systems
Develop capabilities that permit flight crews to
operate in a day VMC-like environment, regardless of
visibility

CFIT – FOQA & ASAP
Develop low cost analytical tools (including decision
making) and methods that both large and small
operators can apply to FOQA and ASAP information

CFIT – Datalink
Develop datalink capabilities and systems for
automatic digital transmission
CAST R&D Plan (cont’d)

CFIT Precision-Like Approach
Conduct research necessary to determine human factors
guidelines for design of instrument procedures

ALAR - Health & Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS)
Conduct research and develop technology for detection,
prediction and/or annunciation of impending equipment
failures

ALAR – Human Factors
Conduct research into correcting and eliminating the
underlying reasons/causes for procedural noncompliance.
CAST R&D Plan (cont’d)

LOC – Icing
For aircraft that incorporate non-evaporative ice
protection systems, develop systems that sense the
presence of ice accretion on the aircraft, automatically
activate and manage the ice protection systems, and
provide the pilot with feedback including the effect on
measured aircraft performance, stability, and control

LOC - Envelope Protection -Existing Airplanes
Complete study and determine feasibility of modifying
existing aircraft to include angle-of-attack / low speed
protection (e.g., stick pushers/nudgers, column force
ramps/gradients, automatic elevator/stabilizer inputs);
thrust asymmetry compensation; and bank angle
protection using hard or soft limits
CAST R&D Plan (cont’d)

RI - ATC Procedures -Review Capacity Enhancement
Program - LAHSO)
Complete review of capacity enhancement programs
to determine if they are contributory to runway
incursions

RI - RI Visual Aids Enhancement and Automation
Technology - Airports - Runway occupancy signal
Develop, evaluate and install a visual signal to
indicate runway occupancy to flight crews on final
approach to that runway
Resource Cost vs. Risk Reduction
10000
APPROVED PLAN
Risk Reduction
9000
Total Cost in
$ (Millions)
8000
75%
7000
6000
50%
5000
2007
2020
4000
3000
25%
2000
1000
0%
0
Resource Cost ($ Millions)
Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements
100%
Safety Plan Benefits

Prediction of a 73% risk reduction that also
results in approximately $620 million annual
savings to the industry
– Current accident cost per flight is approximately
$76 cycle
– Implementation of the 46 selected safety
enhancements reduces this cost by $56 per flight
cycle
Safety is morally required and is also good for
business
Cost Savings
Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents
100
Dollars/Flt. Cyc
80
Historical cost of
accidents per flight
cycle
Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle
Or
~ $620 Million Dollars/Year
60
40
20
Cost of accident fatalities
following implementation of the
CAST plan @ 2007 levels
0
2002
2007
Portion of Risk
U.S. Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents
Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan
(2007 Implementation Values)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Risk Eliminated
Risk Remaining
CAST 1987-2000
Fatal/Hull Loss Database –
Security events excluded
All Regions Combined
Worldwide Hull Loss & Fatal World Wide Accidents
Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted Worldwide
(2007 Implementation Values)
100%
90%
80%
Portion of Risk
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy
Risk Eliminated
Risk Remaining
The CAST Process is Flexible
It may be used to analyze:
• Suggestions from outside industry
• Regulatory initiatives
• Accident lessons learned
• Incident data
• Other
Safety Metrics
Purpose:
Measure to determine if program is resulting in desired
risk reduction. Identify issues needing more detailed analysis if
desired result is not occurring
Assumption:
Measurement of accident rate is not effective means
of identifying program success
Concentrate on
using reporting systems currently in existence
(ex: FOQA, Partnership programs, SDR, NAOMS, etc.)
Direct
link is through the problem statements identified by data
analysis
–Identify events that reflect the problem
–Identify available method for measuring the event frequency
–Establish event baseline
–Identify trend
Safety Metrics Examples
Safety Enhancement
Indicator
1. Terrain Avoidance Warning
System (TAWS)
Reduction
4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (711,18)
Percentage
21. ALAR Flight Deck Equipment
Upgrades – New Type Designs (13)
Reduction
23. ALAR Flight Crew Training –
one project
Continuous
27. LOC Policies and Procedures
– Risk Assessments and
Management – one project
Percentage
in MSAW alerts
Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT)
of operators who have adopted constant angle
approaches
Continuous reduction in selected metrics
in number of inadvertent descents below decision
height
reduction in the number of busted approach
gates
Continuous reduction in altitude busts
of operators/manufacturers with risk
assessment/management processes in place
Continuous reduction in the number of operations with
recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systems
Percentage of operators with a process to include safety
information in manuals
CAST Links to International Safety
Activities

Asia/Pacific

– ICAO COSCAP
(Cooperative Development of
Operational Safety and
Continuing Airworthiness)
–
NARAST, SARAST,
SEARAST
– African Airlines Safety
Council, AFRASCO

Europe
Securite de la Navigation Aerienne
en Afrique et a Madagascar)

Central / South America
– PAAST: Pan American
Aviation Safety Team
Flight Safety Foundation
– CAAG (CFIT & Approach
and Landing Action Group)
– JSSI: JAA Safety Strategy
Initiative

West Africa
– ASECNA (Agence pour la
– Association of Asia Pacific
Airlines

East Africa

ICAO
– Global Aviation Safety Plan
(GASP)
Future Vision

Execute the CAST-approved Safety Plan

Measure Plan effectiveness and modify Plan based on
metrics and results

Continue the development of a proactive incident-based
risk mitigation methodology

Improve the CAST process

Expand CAST influence on worldwide safety programs

Integrate safety program with R & D initiatives

Catalog the many on-going safety initiatives that dilute
limited resources and identify opportunities for program
integration and efficiency improvements
Safety Plan Development
Accident
JSAT’s
Accident
JSIT’s
Master
Contributing
Factors
Incident
Analysis
Process
CAST
Plan
CAST
Plan Rev.
Metrics
JIMDAT
Process
Safety
Enhancements
Emerging
Risk
Safety
Enhancements
Metrics
Changing
Risk
Metrics
Aviation
System
Changes
Identify
Hazards
Identify
Factors
Present
In Master
Factors
FAST Hazards
Demographic
Changes
Identify
Hazards
Identify
Factors
Yes
No
Develop
Contributing
Factors
(new or
emerging)
Safety
Enhancements
6-11-03 CAST-051
Conclusions



CAST has an effective data-driven process
CAST has become the model for US Industry/Government
consensus building on safety
CAST brings together all the key players
– Air Carriers
– Employee Groups

– Manufacturers
– Government
Predicted 73% risk reduction by 2007
 Industry is voluntarily implementing CAST
recommendations
 CAST is committed to worldwide participation
 CAST is moving to develop proactive processes to
identify changing and emerging risks