Chapter 7
Food Production
Control: Quantities
Principles of Food, Beverage, and Labour Cost Controls,
Second Canadian Edition
• 7.1 Define the standard for controlling production volume and explain its
importance.
• 7.2 List and describe three standard procedures that enable managers to gain
control over production volume.
• 7.3 Define sales history and describe two methods for gathering the data
from which a sales history is developed. List three basic approaches to
arranging data in a sales history.
• 7.4 Define popularity index and use a popularity index to forecast portion
sales.
• 7.5 Describe the production sheet and calculate needed production for menu
items.
• 7.6 Describe a void sheet and explain its use.
• 7.7 Complete a portion inventory and reconciliation.
• 7.8 Describe a procedure used for controlling high-cost, preportioned main
course items.
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
Learning Objectives
2
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
Importance of Forecasting Sales
“How many guests will I serve today?” – “This
week?” – “This year?”
3
Standards for Production Volume
• Three standard procedures to control production
volume:
1. Maintaining and analyzing sales history
2. Forecasting portion sales
3. Determining production quantities
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
• Essential to know the number of portions likely
to be sold
4
Sales Histories
• A sales forecast predicts the number of guests
you will serve and the revenues they will
generate in a given future time period.
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
• Sales history is the best predictor of what will
happen in the future.
5
Manual Method
• Uses the traditional guest cheques—paper
forms that become itemized bills given to
customers at the conclusion of their meals
• Set up a routine for abstracting the data from
the cheques
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
Sales Histories
6
Sales Histories
• Remember that a distinction is made in the
hospitality industry between sales (revenue),
and sales volume, which is the number of units
sold.
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
• You can determine your actual sales for a
current time period by using a computerized
system called a point of sales (POS) system
7
Sales Histories
• POS systems tell you: revenue you have
generated in a given time period, guests you
have served, average sale per guest.
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
• Guest count is the term used in the hospitality
industry to indicate the number of people you
have served.
8
Sales Histories
Average Sale per Guest
=
Total Sales
Number of Guests Served
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
• When managers record both revenue and guest
counts, information needed to compute average
sales per guest, a term also known as cheque
average, is provided.
9
Maintaining Sales Histories
• You may want to use even more detailed
information, such as the number of a particular
menu item served, the number of guests served
in a specific meal or time period, or the method
of meal delivery (for example, drive-through vs.
counter sale).
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
• Sales history may consist of revenue, number of
guests served, and average sales per guest.
10
Arrangement of Sales Histories
1. By operating period, such as one week or
2. By day of the week, to compare a given day
across a period of several weeks.
3. By entrée item, popularity of an item can be
seen.
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
month.
11
• Popularity index (PI) is defined as the ratio of
portion sales for a given menu item to total
portion sales.
• The popularity index is calculated by dividing
portion sales for item by the total portion sales for
all menu items, then X100 state as percentage.
Popularity Index
=
Portion sales for an item
Total portion sales
X 100
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
Popularity Index
12
Other Information in Sales Histories
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
• One of the most common is the weather. In
many establishments, bad weather has a clearly
negative impact on sales volume.
13
Other Information in Sales Histories
•
•
•
•
•
A national holiday
A particular convention group in a hotel
Faulty kitchen equipment
A torn-up street in front of the restaurant
A major sale at a nearby store
• Judgments can be made regarding numbers of
portions to prepare.
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
• Special events can influence sales and are
often included in sales histories.
14
Sales Forecasting
• Refer to the sales history to find the total
number of sales recorded on a number of
comparable dates in the recent past.
• When great differences are apparent, determine
the reasons for the differences.
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
• Predict anticipated volume: total numbers of
customers anticipated for particular days or
particular meals.
15
• Judge the extent to which surrounding
conditions will affect sales on the particular
date(s).
• Checking:
• a local calendar for coming events
• weather forecasts
• other relevant sources of information
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
Sales Forecasting
16
Sales Forecasting
• For example, if recent history indicated 300 to 315
sales for dinner on Mondays in pleasant weather,
one could reasonably anticipate that the next
Monday would bring approximately the same
volume of business if good weather were
expected. In this case, it would probably be safe
to predict 315 sales.
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
• After these steps, estimate the total business
volume anticipated for the day or dates.
17
Sales Forecasting
• It can also be done for different menus if the
sales history is set up to reflect the relative
popularity of individual items as compared with
a changing variety of other items appearing on
the same menu.
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
• Next, forecast the anticipated number of sales
of each item on the menu.
18
Determine Production Quantities
• It translates portion sales forecasts into
production targets.
• It lists menu items and quantities in terms that the
chef and staff can use.
• It is a tool used by management to control
production and eliminate waste.
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
• The production sheet is a form listing the
names and quantities of all menu items that are
to be prepared for a given date.
19
Determine Production Quantities
• varies in form and complexity from one kitchen to
another
• filled out by a manager and forwarded to the chef as
many days in advance as possible
• has valuable information for the chef about both total
anticipated volume for a particular meal and the
number of portion sales anticipated for each item on
the menu
• allows a chef to be better equipped to determine
needs for perishable for and for nonperishable foods
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
• The production sheet:
20
• Determine whether the sales forecast has been
reasonably accurate in predicting both the total
number of customers and their individual
preferences.
• Judge how closely the chef has followed the
production standards established on the
production sheet.
• Take corrective action.
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
Monitoring Quantity Production
21
Void Sheet
• Whenever a portion is returned:
• indicate the name of the item
• the number of the check on which it appeared
• the reason for its return
• If the number of returns is high:
•
•
•
•
•
investigate
may indicate understaffing
careless server
indifferent cook
represents excess cost
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
• records it on the void sheet
22
Void Sheet
• control of portions by a certain method such as
preportioned entrées
• it is more difficult for kitchen personnel to be
careless with food
• makes possible the reconciliation of kitchen
records of portions produced and records of
portions sold
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
• Other important uses of the void sheet:
23
• It is important to note that sales histories,
regardless of how well they have been
developed and maintained, are not sufficient
alone to accurately predict future sales.
• Your knowledge of potential price changes, new
competitors, facility renovations, and improved
selling programs are just a few of the many
factors that you must consider when predicting
future sales.
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
Things to Consider
24
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Mise en place, p. 208
Popularity index (PI), p. 193
Portion inventory and reconciliation, p. 205
Production sheet, p. 200
Sales forecasting, p .197
Sales history, p. 190
Void sheet, p. 205
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
Key Terms
25
Chapter Web Links
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
Canadian Restaurant and Foodservice Association:
http://www.crfa.ca/research/
26
Principles of Food, Beverage, and
Labour Cost Controls, Second
Canadian Edition
Copyright
27