Otago University Energy Research Symposium, 4 November, 2009 Energy Researchtoo little or too late? Professor Ralph E H Sims Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand R.E.Sims@massey.ac.nz I NTERNATI ONAL ENERGY AGENCY Aims in the next 20 minutes….. To review the growing importance for an energy transition – leading to energy security, sustainable development and climate change mitigation. To outline the needs for increased deployment of “clean” energy technologies . To consider market drivers, growth prospects, and RDD&D requirements. I NTERNATI ONAL ENERGY AGENCY World primary energy demand in the IEA WEO 2009 Reference Scenario 1980-2030 Other renewables 16 000 Biomass Mtoe 18 000 14 000 Hydro Unsustainable! 12 000 Nuclear 10 000 Gas 8 000 6 000 Oil 4 000 Coal 2 000 WEO-2008 total 0 1980 I NTERNATI ONAL ENERGY AGENCY 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Current policies will lead to growth of 45% in energy demand by 2030 and a fossil fuel future. Gt CO2-eq Annual greenhouse gas emissions to 2100 Even if can stabilise at 450 ppm there is only a 50% chance of keeping o global temperature rise below 2 C. Towards the end of this century need to reach NEGATIVE emissions> IEA WEO 2008 climate-policy scenarios. Gigatonnes Reductions in annual energy-related CO2 emissions 45 CCS Nuclear Renewables & Biomass Energy efficiency 40 Reference Scenario 35 550 Policy Scenario 30 450 Policy Scenario 25 20 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 For 450 ppm CO2-eq additional deployment of existing and new low-carbon technologies accounts for most savings at © OECD/IEA - 2008 US$ 180 /t CO2 Gt World abatement of energy-related CO2 emissions in IEA WEO 2009 42 Reference Scenario 40 38 36 13.8 Gt 34 3.8 Gt 32 30 28 26 2007 2010 450 Scenario 2015 2020 2025 Share of abatement % Efficiency End-use Power plants Renewables Biofuels Nuclear CCS 2020 2030 65 57 59 52 6 5 18 20 1 3 13 10 3 10 2030 Efficiency measures account for two-thirds of the 3.8 Gt CO2-eq abatement in 2020. Renewables contribute close to one-fifth. Annual power capacity additions needed for the 450 Policy Scenario – from 2012-2030. Coal CCS 14 CCS coal-fired plants (800 MW each) Gas CCS 8 CCS gas-fired plants (500 MW) Nuclear 17 nuclear plants (1000 MW) Hydropower 2 Three Gorges dams Biomass and waste 300 CHP plants (40 MW) Wind 16000 turbines (3 MW) Solar and other renewables 2 2.2 Mm solar panels, 200 Geothermal 0 20 GW 40 60 All new generating capacity built after 2012 has to be “carbon-free” and 15% of existing capacity is retired early. © OECD/IEA - 2009 www.iea.org Primary energy supply by 2050. By 2050, in a < 2 C scenario, biomass becomes the greatest source of primary energy o Capacity and energy from renewables Total Capacity in Operation [GWel ], [GWth ] and ProducedEnergy [TWhel], [TWhth], 2007 heat power 200 190 Total capacity in operation [GW] 2007 Produced Energy [TWh] 2007 150 100 147 94 89 Bioenergy heat and geothermal heat around 800 TWh - not shown. 58 50 10 0 Solar Thermal Heat Wind Power Geothermal Power 9.4 10 Photovoltaic 0.6 1.5 0.4 0.6 Solar Thermal Power Ocean Tidal Power Renewables for Heating and Cooling – the sleeping giant! 40% of our energy use is to provide heat! Biomass, geothermal and solar provides 15-16% of it. I NTERNATI ONAL ENERGY AGENCY Free download of the 200 page report from www.iea.org Transport biofuel options World oil production by source in the Reference Scenario I NTERNATI ONAL ENERGY AGENCY Six times the current oil capacity of Saudi Arabia needs to be developed between 2010 & 2030. Recent trends in biofuel production Biodiesel production increased 10 fold. Germany, contributed most of the growth. Now declining after a change of policy. Ethanol production has tripled in 8 years. Bulk of the increase coming from Brazil. United States now the lead producer. Biofuel production projections to 2015 Plant capacity at around 60 – 70 % Potential for I NTERNATI ONAL ENERGY AGENCY 2nd-generation biofuels Free downloads of the full 124 page report are available on www.iea.org Biofuels in 2050 – IEA ETP Scenario 0 To achieve a 2 C target - assuming electric and/or fuel cell light duty vehicles in place. 150 000 million ha arable land required. Most biofuel growth after 2020 will be 2nd-generation. Synthetic biofuels after 2030 needed mainly for © OECD/IEA aviation, heavy trucks and marine purposes. Sustainable Biofuels Consensus Rockefeller Foundation Centre, Bellagio. www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/reinsider/story?id=52328 Cities, Towns and Renewable Energy YIMFY Yes In My Front Yard! Gigatonnes Growing carbon dioxide emissions from energy use in cities 35 80% 30 78% 25 Non-OECD cities OECD cities Share of cities in world (right axis) 76% 20 15 74% 10 72% 5 0 70% 2006 2020 2030 CO2 emissions in cities grow by 1.8% per year between 2006 and 2030 (versus 1.6% globally). I NTERNATI ONAL ENERGY AGENCY The share of CO2 from cities rise from 71% to 76%. Local governments have the power to influence the energy choices of their citizens. Many mega-cities and small towns have already encouraged energy efficiency measures. Many combinations of policies have also been employed to stimulate local renewable energy development- including local governance by LEAPS: L eading by setting targets and actions; E nabling of private investment, guidance, education, RD&D; A uthority and regulations through planning, codes; P rovision of incentives, resources and grant funding; and S elf-governance and demonstration. Regardless of a community’s size or location, enhanced deployment of renewable energy projects can result. The goals of this report are to inspire city stakeholders by showing how renewable energy systems can: benefit citizens and businesses; assist national governments to better appreciate the role that local municipalities might play in meeting national and international objectives; and help accelerate the necessary transition to a sustainable energy future. Potential of local authorities to reduce GHG emissions Have significant power to reduce emissions: by regulating land and buildings; maintaining infrastructures (water, waste, roads); and investing in public transport. Possess assets that they can use for selfgovernance and demonstration: their own buildings (offices, schools); land and reserves for biomass, wind, solar etc; fleet vehicles and public transport; waste treatment facilities; and financial assets and procurement power. I NTERNATI ONAL ENERGY AGENCY Conventional power supply system I NTERNATI ONAL ENERGY AGENCY Medium- and small-scale distributed generation within the city=“smart grids” I NTERNATI ONAL ENERGY AGENCY Case study city examples: I NTERNATI ONAL ENERGY AGENCY Tokyo, Japan (12.1 million population) Cape Town, South Africa Nagpur, India Adelaide, Australia Merton, London, UK Freiburg, Germany Växjo, Sweden Palmerston North, NZ Masdar, United Arab Emirates El Hierro, Spain Samsǿ, Denmark Güssing, Austria Greensburg, USA (1 500 population) Case study: Adelaide, South Australia 1.16 million inhabitants, aiming for 20% renewable electricity by 2014 (33% by 2020) Policy recommendations for local authorities: I NTERNATI ONAL ENERGY AGENCY Develop renewable energy in parallel with energy efficiency. Learn from examples but fit them to local circumstances. First plan, then take action. Develop policies that support transition to decentralised energy systems. Gain community support -essential for effectiveness of policies. I NTERNATI ONAL ENERGY AGENCY Roadmaps – Electric and Plug-in Vehicles 4% of CO2 reduction potential in ETP scenario Roadmaps –Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle 4% of CO2 reduction potential in ETP scenario Roadmaps- 2nd-Generation Biofuels 5% of CO2 reduction potential in ETP scenario Roadmaps – Efficiency in Transport 14% of CO2 reduction potential in ETP scenario Public RD&D budgets for energy IEA member countries 1974-2007. Public RD&D budgets for Renewable energy IEA member countries 1974-2007. In summary Climate change is real and adaptation is inevitable. All national, provincial and municipal governments need to participate in the mitigation solutions to keep global mean o temperature rise below 2 C. RD&D investment in sustainable energy is inadequate to cope with the necessary transition…………… We are running out of time… I NTERNATI ONAL ENERGY AGENCY Deploying Renewables Global renewable energy markets and policies programme Download at www.iea.org/G8/index.asp I NTERNATI ONAL ENERGY AGENCY Deploying Renewables I NTERNATI ONAL ENERGY AGENCY Assessment of policy experience across OECD and the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, S. Africa) Effectiveness of RE support policies assessed through market deployment and RD&D investment. Distillation of the best policy practices and of main challenges encountered. Learning experience gained from success stories - but also from failures. Several key principles recommended. Fostering the transition of Renewables towards mass market integration Market Deployment Mature technologies (e.g. hydro) Low cost-gap technologies (e.g. wind onshore) Prototype & demonstration stage technologies (e.g. 2nd generation biofuels) Development High cost-gap technologies (e.g. PV) Niche markets Mass market Time Fostering the transition of Renewables towards mass market integration Stimulate market pull Voluntary (green) demand Market Deployment Technology-neutral competition TGC Carbon trading (EU ETS) Mature technologies (e.g. hydro) Low cost-gap technologies (e.g. wind onshore) Continuity, RD&D, create market attractiveness Capital cost incentives: investment tax credits, rebates, loan guarantees etc. Prototype & demonstration stage technologies (e.g. 2nd generation biofuels) Development High cost-gap technologies (e.g. PV) Niche markets Imposed market risk, guaranteed but declining minimum return Price-based: FIP Quantity-based: TGC with technology banding Stability, low-risk incentives Price-based: FIT, FIP Quantity-based: Tenders Mass market Time Note: The positions of the various technologies and incentive schemes along the S-curve are an indicative example at a given moment. The actual optimal mix and timing of policy incentives will depend on specific national circumstances. The level of competitiveness will also change in function of the evolving prices of competing technologies.