Otago University
Energy Research Symposium, 4 November, 2009
Energy Researchtoo little or too late?
Professor Ralph E H Sims
Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
R.E.Sims@massey.ac.nz
I NTERNATI ONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Aims in the next 20 minutes…..
 To review the growing importance for an
energy transition – leading to energy
security, sustainable development and
climate change mitigation.
 To outline the needs for increased
deployment of “clean” energy
technologies .
 To consider market drivers, growth
prospects, and RDD&D requirements.
I NTERNATI ONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
World primary energy demand in the IEA
WEO 2009 Reference Scenario 1980-2030
Other renewables
16 000
Biomass
Mtoe
18 000
14 000
Hydro
Unsustainable!
12 000
Nuclear
10 000
Gas
8 000
6 000
Oil
4 000
Coal
2 000
WEO-2008 total
0
1980
I NTERNATI ONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Current policies will lead to growth of 45% in
energy demand by 2030 and a fossil fuel future.
Gt CO2-eq
Annual greenhouse
gas emissions
to 2100
Even if can stabilise at 450 ppm there
is only a 50% chance of keeping
o
global temperature rise below 2 C.
Towards the end of this century
need to reach NEGATIVE emissions>
IEA WEO 2008 climate-policy scenarios.
Gigatonnes
Reductions in annual energy-related CO2 emissions
45
CCS
Nuclear
Renewables & Biomass
Energy efficiency
40
Reference Scenario
35
550 Policy Scenario
30
450 Policy Scenario
25
20
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
For 450 ppm CO2-eq additional deployment of existing and
new low-carbon technologies accounts for most savings at
© OECD/IEA - 2008
US$ 180 /t CO2
Gt
World abatement of energy-related CO2
emissions in IEA WEO 2009
42
Reference Scenario
40
38
36
13.8 Gt
34
3.8 Gt
32
30
28
26
2007 2010
450 Scenario
2015
2020
2025
Share of abatement %
Efficiency
End-use
Power plants
Renewables
Biofuels
Nuclear
CCS
2020
2030
65
57
59
52
6
5
18
20
1
3
13
10
3
10
2030
Efficiency measures account for two-thirds of the
3.8 Gt CO2-eq abatement in 2020.
Renewables contribute close to one-fifth.
Annual power capacity additions needed for the
450 Policy Scenario – from 2012-2030.
Coal CCS
14 CCS coal-fired plants (800 MW each)
Gas CCS
8 CCS gas-fired plants (500 MW)
Nuclear
17 nuclear plants (1000 MW)
Hydropower
2 Three Gorges dams
Biomass and
waste
300 CHP plants (40 MW)
Wind
16000 turbines (3 MW)
Solar and other
renewables
2
2.2 Mm solar panels, 200 Geothermal
0
20
GW
40
60
All new generating capacity built after 2012 has to be
“carbon-free” and 15% of existing capacity is retired early.
© OECD/IEA - 2009
www.iea.org
Primary energy supply by 2050.
By 2050, in a < 2 C scenario, biomass
becomes the greatest source of primary energy
o
Capacity and energy from renewables
Total Capacity in Operation [GWel ], [GWth ] and ProducedEnergy [TWhel], [TWhth], 2007
heat
power
200
190
Total capacity in operation [GW] 2007
Produced Energy [TWh] 2007
150
100
147
94
89
Bioenergy heat and
geothermal heat around
800 TWh - not shown.
58
50
10
0
Solar Thermal
Heat
Wind Power
Geothermal
Power
9.4 10
Photovoltaic
0.6 1.5
0.4 0.6
Solar Thermal
Power
Ocean Tidal
Power
Renewables for Heating and
Cooling – the sleeping giant!
40% of our
energy use is to
provide heat!
Biomass,
geothermal and
solar provides
15-16% of it.
I NTERNATI ONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Free download of the
200 page report from
www.iea.org
Transport biofuel options
World oil production by source
in the Reference Scenario
I NTERNATI ONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Six times the current oil capacity of Saudi Arabia
needs to be developed between 2010 & 2030.
Recent trends in biofuel production
Biodiesel production increased 10 fold.
Germany, contributed most of the growth.
Now declining after a change of policy.
Ethanol production has tripled in 8 years.
Bulk of the increase coming from Brazil.
United States now the lead producer.
Biofuel production projections to 2015
Plant capacity at around 60 – 70 %
Potential for
I NTERNATI ONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
2nd-generation biofuels
Free downloads
of the full 124 page
report are
available on
www.iea.org
Biofuels in 2050 – IEA ETP Scenario
0
To achieve a 2 C target - assuming electric
and/or fuel cell light duty vehicles in place.
150 000 million ha
arable land required.
Most biofuel growth after 2020 will be 2nd-generation.
Synthetic biofuels after 2030 needed mainly for
© OECD/IEA aviation, heavy trucks and marine purposes.
Sustainable Biofuels Consensus
Rockefeller Foundation Centre, Bellagio.
www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/reinsider/story?id=52328
Cities, Towns and
Renewable Energy
YIMFY
Yes In My
Front Yard!
Gigatonnes
Growing carbon dioxide emissions
from energy use in cities
35
80%
30
78%
25
Non-OECD cities
OECD cities
Share of cities in world
(right axis)
76%
20
15
74%
10
72%
5
0
70%
2006
2020
2030
CO2 emissions in cities grow by 1.8% per year
between 2006 and 2030 (versus 1.6% globally).
I NTERNATI ONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
The share of CO2 from cities rise from 71% to 76%.
 Local governments have the power to influence
the energy choices of their citizens.
 Many mega-cities and small towns have already
encouraged energy efficiency measures.
 Many combinations of policies have also been
employed to stimulate local renewable energy
development- including local governance by
LEAPS:
 L eading by setting targets and actions;
 E nabling of private investment, guidance,
education, RD&D;
 A uthority and regulations through planning, codes;
 P rovision of incentives, resources and grant funding;
and
 S elf-governance and demonstration.
Regardless of a community’s size or
location, enhanced deployment of
renewable energy projects can result.
The goals of this report are to inspire city
stakeholders by showing how renewable
energy systems can:
 benefit citizens and businesses;
assist national governments to better
appreciate the role that local municipalities
might play in meeting national and
international objectives; and
help accelerate the necessary transition to a
sustainable energy future.
Potential of local authorities
to reduce GHG emissions
Have significant power to reduce emissions:
 by regulating land and buildings;
 maintaining infrastructures
(water, waste, roads); and
 investing in public transport.
Possess assets that they can use for selfgovernance and demonstration:
 their own buildings (offices, schools);
 land and reserves for biomass, wind, solar etc;
 fleet vehicles and public transport;
 waste treatment facilities; and
 financial assets and procurement power.
I NTERNATI ONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Conventional power supply system
I NTERNATI ONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Medium- and small-scale distributed
generation within the city=“smart grids”
I NTERNATI ONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Case study city examples:
I NTERNATI ONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
 Tokyo, Japan (12.1 million population)
 Cape Town, South Africa
 Nagpur, India
 Adelaide, Australia
 Merton, London, UK
 Freiburg, Germany
 Växjo, Sweden
 Palmerston North, NZ
 Masdar, United Arab Emirates
 El Hierro, Spain
 Samsǿ, Denmark
 Güssing, Austria
 Greensburg, USA (1 500 population)
Case study: Adelaide, South Australia
1.16 million inhabitants, aiming for 20%
renewable electricity by 2014 (33% by 2020)
Policy recommendations for local
authorities:
I NTERNATI ONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Develop renewable energy in
parallel with energy efficiency.
Learn from examples but fit them
to local circumstances.
First plan, then take action.
Develop policies that support
transition to decentralised energy
systems.
Gain community support -essential
for effectiveness of policies.
I NTERNATI ONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Roadmaps – Electric and Plug-in Vehicles
4% of CO2 reduction potential in ETP scenario
Roadmaps –Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle
4% of CO2 reduction potential in ETP scenario
Roadmaps- 2nd-Generation Biofuels
5% of CO2 reduction potential in ETP scenario
Roadmaps – Efficiency in Transport
14% of CO2 reduction potential in ETP scenario
Public RD&D budgets for energy IEA member countries 1974-2007.
Public RD&D budgets for Renewable energy IEA member countries 1974-2007.
In summary
 Climate change is real and adaptation is
inevitable.
 All national, provincial and municipal
governments need to participate in the
mitigation solutions to keep global mean
o
temperature rise below 2 C.
 RD&D investment in sustainable energy is
inadequate to cope with the necessary
transition……………
 We are running out of time…
I NTERNATI ONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Deploying Renewables
Global renewable
energy markets
and policies
programme
Download at
www.iea.org/G8/index.asp
I NTERNATI ONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Deploying Renewables




I NTERNATI ONAL
ENERGY AGENCY

Assessment of policy experience
across OECD and the BRICS countries
(Brazil, Russia, India, China, S. Africa)
Effectiveness of RE support policies
assessed through market deployment
and RD&D investment.
Distillation of the best policy practices
and of main challenges encountered.
Learning experience gained from
success stories - but also from failures.
Several key principles recommended.
Fostering the transition of Renewables
towards mass market integration
Market Deployment
Mature
technologies
(e.g. hydro)
Low cost-gap
technologies
(e.g. wind
onshore)
Prototype &
demonstration stage
technologies (e.g. 2nd
generation biofuels)
Development
High cost-gap
technologies
(e.g. PV)
Niche markets
Mass market
Time
Fostering the transition of Renewables
towards mass market integration
Stimulate market pull
Voluntary (green) demand
Market Deployment
Technology-neutral
competition
TGC
Carbon trading (EU ETS)
Mature
technologies (e.g.
hydro)
Low cost-gap
technologies (e.g.
wind onshore)
Continuity, RD&D, create market attractiveness
Capital cost incentives: investment tax credits,
rebates, loan guarantees etc.
Prototype & demonstration
stage technologies (e.g. 2nd
generation biofuels)
Development
High cost-gap
technologies (e.g.
PV)
Niche markets
Imposed market risk,
guaranteed but declining
minimum return
Price-based: FIP
Quantity-based: TGC with
technology banding
Stability, low-risk incentives
Price-based: FIT, FIP
Quantity-based: Tenders
Mass market
Time
Note: The positions of the various technologies and incentive schemes along the S-curve are an indicative example at a given moment.
The actual optimal mix and timing of policy incentives will depend on specific national circumstances.
The level of competitiveness will also change in function of the evolving prices of competing technologies.