http://www.catholicearthcareoz.net/updates.html

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• Personal,
• Community,
• Beyond Community

 Premier Pete in the election campaign promises a Category 5 cyclone-proof building in every town in Qld north of Mackay due to Global warming predictions.
 South American Glaciers melting
 Hole in Ozone Closing
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Climate Change Our Responsibility to Sustain God's Earth
 Bishop Christopher Toohey
Chair of Catholic Earthcare Australia
Member Bishops Committee for Justice Development Ecology & Peace
Member Bishops Committee for Family & Life
 ENDORSED BY THE FOLLOWING MEMBERS OF THE BCJDEP
Archbishop John Bathersby
Deputy President Australian Catholic Bishops Conference
Chair Bishops Committee for Justice Development Ecology & Peace
Deputy Chair Catholic Earthcare Australia
Archbishop Adrian Doyle
Chair Caritas Australia
Chair Bishops Committee for Social Welfare
Member Catholic Earthcare Australia
Bishop Christopher Saunders
Chair Australian Social Justice Council
Member Bishops Committee for Evangelisation & Missions
Bishop Eugene Hurley
Chair Bishops Committee for Family & Life
Deputy Chair of Caritas Australia
Bishop Patrick Power
Member Bishops Committee for Media Deputy Chair Australian Social Justice Council

 Australia's 5 million Catholics are as morally bound to combat the loss of biodiversity as they are to protect the rights of the unborn child.
 Rapid climate change as the result of human activity is now recognised by the global scientific community as a reality.
 People around the world are experiencing the impacts of increasing land temperatures, rising sea levels, and a change in the frequency of extreme climatic events.

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The chemical composition of the atmosphere cloaking our Earth is being changed by pollution caused by human activity. The resultant chemical substances strengthen what is called the greenhouse effect.
As a result, Earth's climatic patterns are being altered at a pace not experienced in at least
10,000 years.
 Atmospheric conditions are now outside the envelope they have occupied for the last 400,000 years.
 It is entirely feasible that in 100 years time
Earth’s climate will be more like it was 20 million years ago.

 Fr.Denis Edwards MA
Fordham, STD, CUA - is a senior lecturer in systematic theology in the
School of Theology of
Flinders University. He teaches for Catholic
Theological College within the ecumenical consortium of the
Adelaide College of
Divinity. He is a priest of the Roman Catholic
Archdiocese of Adelaide.

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Tim Flannery: The Australian: “Climate calamity forecast by end of century”
By the end of the century, temperatures will have risen by 3 degrees
The cause: our use of fossil fuels
Australia burns more fossil fuel per capita and exports more coal than any other nation
50% of CO2 emissions come from cars.
3 degree rise: the loss of world heritage areas and coral reefs and our cities under increasing water stress. The Murray could dry up, and seas could rise by up to 6 metres
2 degree rise: loss of places like Kakadu and our mountain rain forests, with their fauna; the extinction of the polar ecosystems

 1992: Governments, including Australia, signed UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change
 Under this convention, research of hundreds of scientists from many countries assembled in
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
 Its 4 th report is due in 2006. Its 3 rd report (2001), states: “there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities ”
 Human activities will continue to change atmospheric conditions during the 21st century

 Global average temperatures and sea levels are projected to rise under all IPPC scenarios
 Increase in global average surface temperature of between 1.4--5.8 degrees C over the century
 Global average temperature: increased 0.75 of a degree C during the period of extensive measurement beginning in late 1800’s
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About 0.5 has occurred after 1950
Climate modeling by CSIRO’s Division of
Atmospheric Research: average temperatures across Australia will increase 1-2 degrees by 2030 and 3-4 degrees by 2070

School of Resources, Environment & Society http://sres.anu.edu.au

Global air temperature: annual average www.cru.uea.ac.uk

Temperature trends in global context www.ipcc.ch

Air temperature over 1,000 years www.ipcc.ch

Air temperature & CO
2 over 400,000 years www.unep.org

What suggests that it’s us?
www.ipcc.ch

For 420,000 years the CO
2 concentration in the atmosphere remained within tight bounds
Projected
(2100)
Current
(2005)
Years Before Present

Summer Annual
Autumn
Winter
2030
Modelled ranges of average annual warming
( ° C) for ca 2030 and 2070, relative to 1990
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Temperature Change ( o
C)
2070
Spring m C o
C)
Australia’s future climate?
2030 2070 www.dar.csiro.au

Delayed responses in the system … www.ipcc.ch

Australian air temperature: annual average www.bom.gov.au

Dr Brendan Mackey, Reader
School of Resources, Environment and Society/Faculty of Science
Email: brendan.mackey@anu.edu.au

Rapid Climate Change Impacts on Sea Level
Human-forced rapid climate change is real and is happening. The planet is and will continue to get warmer and global climate systems will change rapidly over the coming years, decades and centuries.
There is scientific uncertainty about whether the planet will overall get wetter or drier, which regions will get wetter or drier, and when these changes will occur.
There is less scientific uncertainty about changes in sea level:
Thermal expansion of water
Ice melt
Lag affect

New research is emerging every week…
The first image shows the minimum sea ice concentration for the year 1979, and the second image shows the minimum sea ice concentration in 2003.
Images: NASA
Source: http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/10/24/1066631611744.html

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Now melting glaciers are of concern for millions of people in South America.
If the Andean glaciers continue to melt at the current pace, it will have a severe impact on fresh water supplies.
The expected water shortages are also threatening food supplies across Colombia, Peru, Chile, Venezuela,
Ecuador, Argentina and Bolivia.
The findings are contained in a report called Up in smoke , compiled by a coalition of 20 non-government organisations.
Catherine Pearce is an international climate campaigner with Friends of the Earth. ABC radio national 30 th August
1006

Greenland Ice Sheet: Increase in Area Melted in Summer, from
1992 to 2002.
(Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004)
1992 2002
Orange area = melt-zone

Why will sea levels increase?
Thermal expansion of ocean water due to:
An increase in average global temperature, and the transferring of thermal energy from the atmosphere to the oceans thereby warming the ocean waters. As water warms, its volume expands.
Changes in how energy is distributed between atmosphere and oceans and between oceans.
Ice cap and glacier melt
Melting ice will only cause a sea level rise when the ice melts from land.
Thus,the arctic ice cap melting will not cause an increase in sea levels.
But, Greenland melting will:

Projected changes in global mean sea levels
See: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/climate_dynamics/fig4.gif

What does this mean for people?
Low lying coastal countries vulnerable
Low-lying coastal countries are threatened by rising sea level. A one meter rise in sea level would:
Inundate half of Bangladesh's rice land. Bangladeshis would be forced to migrate by the millions.
Other rice growing lowlands which would be flooded include those of
Viet Nam, China, India and Thailand. Millions of climate refugees could be created by sea level rise in the Philippines and Indonesia.
In Egypt, a 1m sea level rise will affect 6 million people with 12-15% of agricultural land lost,
Around 72 million in China are estimated to be affected by a 1m rise.

We have an appropriate international policy instrument: United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
“The ultimate objective of this convention and any related legal instruments …is to achieve…stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system. Such a level should be achieved with a timeframe sufficient to…ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”
“…
“The developed country parties commit themselves specifically… [to]
adopt national policies and take corresponding measures on the mitigation of climate change, by limiting its anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting and enhancing its greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs. These policies and measures will demonstrate that developed countries are taking the lead in modifying longer term-term trends in anthropogenic emissions with the objective of the Convention…”

 The Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country parties should take the lead role in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof.”
 “The parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage. Lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures …”
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A challenge for all Australians
Ultimately we have no choice. The longer we wait to respond, the more the world’s vulnerable will suffer, and the more costly will be the solutions.
Australia’s governments need to develop and promote policies and programmes that will dramatically reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases.
The Australian government and people should adopt a
“good neighbour” approach and begin now to help our friends in the Oceania region who are suffering and will continue to suffer from sea level rises and other consequences of rapid global climate change.

Tony McMichael
National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health
The Australian National University
Email: tony.mcmichael@anu.edu.au

Increasing power of tropical cyclones over past 30 years in Nth Atlantic – relationship to sea-surface temperature
Change in cyclonic power (PDI), and Temp o C
Power Dissipation Index, PDI
= f (wind speed 3 )
1930
September sea-surface temperature, SST
Year
0.8 o C rise
1975-2004
2010
Emanuel K. Nature 2005; 436: 686-8

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Kerry Emanuel has recently reported a striking inter-annual correlation between the destructive power of storms and sea-surface temperatures, after calculating the total potential destructive power over the life of storms each year since about 1950. The annual total energy dissipated by tropical cyclones over the past 30 years in the
North Atlantic has approximately doubled, and this has primarily reflected an increase in the intensity, not frequency, of cyclones.
This accords with basic atmospheric physics: heat is energy, and as the sea surface warms, so the developing cyclones acquire more energy.
Cyclone Larry (Category 5) largest cyclone in recorded history in
North Queensland March 2006
Cyclone Monica (Category 5) a “perfect cyclone” larger and worse than cyclone Larry , North Queensland and Northern Territory April
2006.

heatwaves floods (deaths and injuries) diarrhoeal disease dengue fever
Tony McMichael
National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health
The Australian National University
Email: tony.mcmichael@anu.edu.au

Drier 2030 Wetter
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
Rainfall Change (%)
Drier 2070 Wetter
Projected 20-40% decline by midcentury
CSIRO Atmospheric Research, 2002
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
Rainfall Change (%)
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Rainfall Change (%)
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Rainfall Change (%)

Estimates of the flood risk in 2020, relative to baseline, for the “mid” emission scenarios
Scenario: A1B (mid), CSIROMK2 Risk increased by 5-
10-fold above current level
Legend: Rel
Risk
0 - 1
1 - 2
2 - 3
3 - 4
4 - 5
5 - 18
Scenario: A1B (mid) CSIROMK2
Risk reduced below current level
NCEPH/CSIRO/BoM, 2002

Excess
Mortality:
France
14,800
Italy
10,000
Portugal
& Spain
5,000

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may
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Tick-borne encephalitis (Sweden)
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Cholera in Bangladesh
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Malaria in east African highlands
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Time-trends in food-borne (infectious) disease

 2.4% of diarrhoeal disease
 Up to 6-7% of malaria and dengue in specified groups of high-risk countries
 Substantial declines in regional food yields
(and, therefore, levels of malnutrition)

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The Gaia hypothesis , scientifically referred to as earth system science , is a class of scientific models of the geobiosphere in which life as a whole fosters and maintains suitable conditions for itself by helping to create an environment on Earth suitable for its continuity.
The Gaia hypothesis , scientifically referred to as earth system science , is a class of scientific models of the geobiosphere in which life as a whole fosters and maintains suitable conditions for itself by helping to create an environment on Earth suitable for its continuity
New book The Revenge of Gaia

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· 137 species are estimated to go extinct each day
· 50,000 species are estimated to go extinct each year
· 78 species were on the original U.S. endangered species list
· 1,201 species were on the U.S. endangered species list as of
October 1999
· 43 percent of endangered and threatened animals in the U.S. depend on wetlands
· 40 percent of all modern medicines are either modelled on or synthesized from natural compounds derived from various species
· 95 percent of known plant species have yet to be screened for their medicinal values
· 30 million species of plants and animals -- more than half of all life forms on our planet -- live in rainforests

Climate change is not just one more environmental problem and incidental health hazard.
CC will disrupt various natural systems that affect human health: regional food production, constraints on infectious agents, patterns of heat stress, exposure to extreme weather events (cyclones, floods, fires, etc.).
Primary reason for concern is that, increasingly, CC will endanger healthy life and, for many, survival.
Awareness of risks to health should galvanise our commitment to seeking sustainability.

Presentation by Dr. David G. Hallman,
Climate Change Programme Coordinator, World Council of Churches
Web-site: www.wcc-coe.org/wcc/what/jpc/ecology.html

Spiritual
Foundations
 We are to respond to God’s love by caring for that which is loved by God.
 Working for the common good
 God loves Creation.
Theological &
Ethical
Perspectives
 Prudence
 Solidarity
 Justice
 Sufficiency
 Sustainability
Climate Change – science, impacts and policy
Joint science academies statement: Global response to climate changeIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Impacts on the most vulnerable
Pacific Small Island StatesDeveloping country impacts
Faith Communities
– responses and challenges
 Witnessing to climate change as a spiritual issue
 Education within faith communities
 Faith-based relief and development agencies
 Collaboration in ecumenical advocacy initiatives

 It raises serious moral and spiritual questions, not just for Catholics but for all Australian citizens and leaders, and calls for change in our way of life.
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 Several times we have addressed environmental issues and recently called for ecological conversion .
8 We now urge Catholics as an essential part of their faith commitment to respond with sound judgements and resolute action to the reality of climate change.

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We are intimately interconnected with the whole lifesystem of the planet and the complex interaction between living creatures and the atmosphere, the land and the water systems.
We need to keep in mind the Precautionary Principle:
Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be
used as a reason for postponing remedial measures.
Its application in science, law and politics is a minimal requirement if wisdom and prudence are our values.
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 We now face an unavoidable rapid change in global climate and all the consequences that will bring. If we act now the changes can be slowed and ultimately halted and harm can still be minimised.
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Restraint, penance and self-imposed limitations are part of authentic human living and are in the tradition of choosing sacrifice for the greater good.

 Consumers send powerful signals to the market by their greenhouse-friendly choice of goods and services. We dream of a fuller view of humanity, greater than a mere owning of more material goods.
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As one of the world’s biggest emitters, per capita, of greenhouse gases, Australians have a particular duty to recognise the fact that they are directly implicated in the causes of atmospheric pollution which is harming the many innocent peoples of the
Pacific region. Ironically, the ecological footprint of the victims is considerably lighter than our own.

Norman Lindsay’s “Albert, the Magic Pudding”: never depleted; endless slices available – i.e., the way that too many of us still view the world.

A SPIRITUAL DECLARATION ON CLIMATE
CHANGE
Made by Faith Community Participants during the Montreal Climate Conference
December 4, 2005
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We hear the call of the Earth.
We believe that caring for life on Earth is a spiritual commitment.
People and other species have the right to life unthreatened by human greed and destructiveness.
Pollution, particularly from the energy-intensive wealthy industrialised countries, is warming the atmosphere. A warmer atmosphere is leading to major climate changes. The poor and vulnerable in the world and future generations will suffer the most.
We commit ourselves to help reduce the threat of climate change through actions in our own lives, pressure on governments and industries and standing in solidarity with those most affected by climate change.
We pray for spiritual support in responding to the call of the Earth.