Potential Growth and Impact of the Latino Vote
in 2008 and Beyond
Special Presentation to the New America Alliance
2007 Pension Fund Forum
“Latino Investment Talent: Embracing The American Dream”
Antonio Gonzalez
President
Southwest Voter Registration Education Project
2914 N. Main St
Los Angeles, CA 90031
323-343-9299
agonzalez@svrep.org
www.svrep.org
Top 10 Most Latino States in 2006 by Latino Population
Percent
NL White
%
Hispanic or
Latino
Origin
Latino %
202,266,112
66.43%
45,018,772
14.79%
102,213,011
33.57%
304,479,123
857,001
43.11%
870,007
43.76%
1,131,157
56.89%
1,988,158
.Texas
11,548,254
48.53%
8,438,918
35.46%
12,247,073
51.47%
23,795,327
.California
16,327,354
43.64%
13,261,796
35.45%
21,086,660
56.36%
37,414,014
.Arizona
3,751,781
59.80%
1,825,481
29.10%
2,521,603
40.20%
6,273,384
.Nevada
1,516,134
59.11%
620,385
24.19%
1,048,724
40.89%
2,564,858
.Florida
11,250,590
61.37%
3,689,256
20.12%
7,081,594
38.63%
18,332,184
.Colorado
3,475,201
71.70%
950,895
19.62%
1,371,417
28.30%
4,846,618
.New York
11,834,704
60.35%
3,214,581
16.39%
7,776,499
39.65%
19,611,203
.New Jersey
5,528,714
62.51%
1,388,767
15.70%
3,315,326
37.49%
8,844,040
.Illinois
8,484,786
65.35%
1,904,819
14.67%
4,497,905
34.65%
12,982,691
Geographic Area
United States
.New Mexico
NL White
Combined
Minority
Combined
Minority %
TOTAL
Table 5: Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United
States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date:
May 17, 2007. (1) 'In combination' means in combination with one or more other races. The sum of the five race groups
adds to more than the total population because individuals may report more than one race.
Top 10 Most Latino States in 2006 by Latino Population Total
NL White
NL
White
%
202,266,112
66.43%
.California
16,327,354
.Texas
Hispanic or
Latino
Origin
Latino
%
Combined
Minority
45,018,772
14.79%
102,213,011
33.57%
304,479,123
43.64%
13,261,796
35.45%
21,086,660
56.36%
37,414,014
11,548,254
48.53%
8,438,918
35.46%
12,247,073
51.47%
23,795,327
.Florida
11,250,590
61.37%
3,689,256
20.12%
7,081,594
38.63%
18,332,184
.New York
11,834,704
60.35%
3,214,581
16.39%
7,776,499
39.65%
19,611,203
.Illinois
8,484,786
65.35%
1,904,819
14.67%
4,497,905
34.65%
12,982,691
.Arizona
3,751,781
59.80%
1,825,481
29.10%
2,521,603
40.20%
6,273,384
.New Jersey
5,528,714
62.51%
1,388,767
15.70%
3,315,326
37.49%
8,844,040
.Colorado
3,475,201
71.70%
950,895
19.62%
1,371,417
28.30%
4,846,618
857,001
43.11%
870,007
43.76%
1,131,157
56.89%
1,988,158
5,598,308
59.07%
713,829
7.53%
3,878,965
40.93%
9,477,273
Geographic Area
United States
.New Mexico
.Georgia
Combined
Minority %
TOTAL
Table 5: Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United
States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date:
May 17, 2007. (1) 'In combination' means in combination with one or more other races. The sum of the five race groups
adds to more than the total population because individuals may report more than one race.
2006 United States Latino Population by State
Data Source: Table 5 - Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the
United States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date: May
17, 2007.
2006 United States Latino Population Percent by State
Data Source: Table 5 - Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the
United States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date: May
17, 2007.
Latino Voter Registration,
National Elections, 1972-2004 +2008
Projection
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
-2,000,000
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Latino VR
Latino VR Change
Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to 1972.
Latino Votes Cast,
National Elections, 1972-2004 +2008
Projection
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
-2,000,000
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Latino VC
Latino VC Change
Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to 1972.
Grupo de Cien
(Group of One Hundred)
• Organize 100 Community, Business, and
Business Leaders to Raise or Donate
$100,000 Each Over 2007-2008
– Enables SVREP to Directly Register and
Turnout 500,000 New Latino Voters in 15-20
Key States
– Enables SVREP to Catalyze Movement of
Latino Leaders/Organizations to Raise Latino
Registration and Turnout by 2.5 Million New
Voters
SVREP Mobilization
Efforts in 2007-2008
• Latina Vote Campaign
– Vota una Latina, Vota una Familia
– Educate, Register, and Mobilize 100,000 new Latina
Voters for the 2008 Presidential Election Cycle
• Campaign for Family and Community (C4C)
– Faith-Based Effort That Will Register 100,000 Latino
parishioners in 5 Competitive States: CO, FL, NV,
NM, OR
– Focused on Immigration Reform and Climate-Related
Themes
– Partners Include Catholic, Protestant, and Evangelical
Churches and Organizations
SVREP Mobilization
Efforts in 2007-2008, con’t
• Movimiento 10/12
– Unite 300 Communities in 15 States Around Local Issues and
Elections
– Register and Turnout 200,000 new Latino Voters During Spring,
Summer, and Fall of 2008 to Lay Foundation for 2010 and 2012
Elections
– Partners Include LULAC, LCLAA, Hispanic Federation, and
NALACC
• YouthVote Campaign
– Register 100,000 High School and College Students During
Spring and Fall of 2007 and 2008
– Target 250-500 School Districts and 150 Colleges in 9 States:
AZ, CA, CO, FL, IL, NJ, NM, TX, WA
– Develop Corresponding Curriculum To Educate High School
Students on Importance of Voting
2004 United States Latino Registration Percent by State
Data Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to
1972.
2004 United States Latino Unregistered Citizen Voting Age
Population by State
Data Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to
1972.
Latino Elected Officials by State:
Largest Latino States – Gains Since 1996
State
Texas
1996
2007
Change
1,687
2,170
+28.6%
California
693
1,163
+67.8%
New Mexico
623
657
+5.5%
Arizona
298
354
+18.8%
Colorado
161
160
-0.6%
Florida
72
131
+81.9%
New Jersey
33
103
+212.1%
Illinois
41
97
+136.5%
New York
40
64
+60%
Other States
95
230
+142.1%
3,786
5,129
+37%
TOTAL
Data Source: 2007 National Directory of Latino Elected Officials, NALEO Educational Fund
Latino Elected Officials by State:
Largest Latino States
Data Source: 2007 National Directory of Latino Elected Officials, NALEO Educational Fund
Latino Elected Officials by State: New Latino Gains Since 1996
Data Source: 2007 National Directory of Latino Elected Officials, NALEO Educational Fund
Latino Elected Officials by Level of
Office in 2007
Federal: 26
Statewide Officials: 6
State Legislators: 238
County Officials: 512
Municipal Officials: 1,640
Judicial/Law Enforcement Officials: 685
School Board/Education Officials: 1,847
Special District Officials: 175
2008 U.S. Presidential Election
Primary/Caucus Schedule
“Tsunami Tuesday” States – Primary/Caucus Elections Held on 2/5/08
State
Electoral
Votes
2004 Latino
Registration
2004 Latino
Turnout
2004
Latino
Share of
Total Reg
2004
Latino
Turnout
%
2004 Latino
Share of
Total
Turnout
Potential
Unregistered
Latino Voters
in 2004
Alabama
9
2,000
2,000
0.1%
100.0%
0.1%
6,000
Alaska
3
13,000
10,000
3.9%
76.9%
3.4%
5,000
California
55
2,455,000
2,081,000
17.3%
84.8%
16.2%
1,978,000
Colorado
9
204,000
165,000
8.8%
80.9%
7.9%
157,000
Connecticut
7
64,000
56,000
3.8%
87.5%
3.7%
66,000
Delaware
3
13,000
12,000
3.1%
92.3%
3.1%
11,000
Georgia
15
36,000
26,000
0.9%
72.2%
0.8%
50,000
Illinois
21
343,000
294,000
5.3%
85.7%
5.2%
265,000
Minnesota
10
53,000
49,000
1.7%
92.5%
1.7%
20,000
Missouri
11
50,000
35,000
1.5%
70.0%
1.2%
18,000
New Jersey
15
331,000
277,000
8.1%
83.7%
7.5%
144,000
New Mexico
5
316,000
276,000
33.8%
87.3%
33.0%
170,000
New York
31
754,000
613,000
8.7%
81.3%
8.0%
592,000
North Dakota
3
4,000
2,000
1.0%
50.0%
0.6%
2,000
Oklahoma
7
29,000
25,000
1.6%
86.2%
1.6%
28,000
Tennessee
11
16,000
9,000
0.6%
56.3%
0.4%
32,000
Utah
5
28,000
27,000
2.5%
96.4%
2.6%
39,000
4,711,000
3,959,000
8.14%
84.0%
7.7%
3,583,000
TOTAL
220
Early Primary States – Primary/Caucus Elections Held Before 2/5/08
State
Electoral Votes
2004 Latino
Registration
2004
Latino
Turnout
2004
Latino
Share of
Total
Reg
2004
Latino
Turnout
%
2004
Latino
Share
of Total
Turnout
Potential
Unregistered
Latino
Voters in
2004
New Hampshire
4
5,000
5,000
0.7%
100.0%
0.7%
4,000
Iowa
7
13,000
12,000
0.8%
92.3%
0.8%
11,000
Nevada
5
83,000
72,000
8.6%
86.7%
8.3%
68,000
Wyoming
3
11,000
10,000
4.2%
90.9%
4.0%
6,000
Florida
27
924,000
824,000
11.2%
89.2%
11.2%
520,000
South Carolina
8
13,000
13,000
0.6%
100.0%
0.7%
3,000
Maine
4
7,000
7,000
0.8%
100.0%
1.0%
2,000
TOTAL
58
1,056,000
943,000
7.1%
89.3%
7.1%
614,000
2004 – 2008 Early Primary State Comparison
State
New Hampshire
Date
Electoral Votes
Latino Registration
Electoral
Votes
State
Date
Latino Registration
District of
Columbia
1/14/2004
3
10,000
1/8/2008
4
5,000
Iowa
1/14/2008
7
13,000
Iowa
1/19/2004
7
13,000
Nevada
1/19/2008
5
83,000
New Hampshire
1/27/2004
4
5,000
Wyoming
1/22/2008
3
11,000
Arizona
2/3/2004
6
354,000
Florida
1/29/2008
27
924,000
Delaware
2/3/2004
3
13,000
South Carolina
1/29/2008
8
13,000
Missouri
2/3/2004
11
50,000
Maine
2/1/2008
4
7,000
New Mexico
2/3/2004
5
316,000
Alabama
2/5/2008
9
2,000
North Dakota
2/3/2004
3
4,000
Alaska
2/5/2008
3
13,000
Oklahoma
2/3/2004
7
29,000
California
2/5/2008
55
2,455,000
South Carolina
2/3/2004
8
13,000
Colorado
2/5/2008
9
204,000
TOTAL
TOTAL
57
807,000
Connecticut
2/5/2008
7
64,000
Delaware
2/5/2008
3
13,000
Georgia
2/5/2008
15
36,000
Illinois
2/5/2008
21
343,000
Minnesota
2/5/2008
10
53,000
Missouri
2/5/2008
11
50,000
New Jersey
2/5/2008
15
331,000
New Mexico
2/5/2008
5
316,000
New York
2/5/2008
31
754,000
North Dakota
2/5/2008
3
4,000
Oklahoma
2/5/2008
7
29,000
Tennessee
2/5/2008
11
16,000
Utah
2/5/2008
5
28,000
278
5,767,000
TOTAL
2008 U.S. Presidential Election
Battleground States
2008 U.S. Senate Races - Close
Congressional Quarterly Ratings
2004 Registration, Turnout, and Latino Potential
by Close Senate Race
2004
Latino
Share
of Reg
%
2004
Latino
Turnout
%
2004
Latino
Share
of Total
Turnout
Potential
Unregistered
Latino
Voters in
2004
Potential
Unregistered
Latino
Voters in
2004 %
2004 Total
Reg
2004 Total
Turnout
2004
Total
Turnout
%
Colorado
2,307,000
2,097,000
90.90%
204,000
165,000
8.8%
80.9%
7.9%
157,000
43.49%
Louisiana
2,413,000
2,067,000
85.66%
19,000
16,000
0.8%
84.2%
0.8%
11,000
36.67%
824,000
736,000
89.32%
7,000
7,000
0.8%
100.0%
1.0%
2,000
22.22%
Minnesota
3,080,000
2,887,000
93.73%
53,000
49,000
1.7%
92.5%
1.7%
20,000
27.40%
New
Hampshire
716,000
677,000
94.55%
5,000
5,000
0.7%
100.0%
0.7%
4,000
44.44%
4,292,000
3,639,000
84.79%
44,000
27,000
1.0%
61.4%
0.7%
65,000
59.63%
425,000
378,000
88.94%
4,000
4,000
0.9%
100.0%
1.1%
2,000
33.33%
Texas
9,681,000
7,950,000
82.12%
2,170,000
1,533,000
22.4%
70.6%
19.3%
1,518,000
41.16%
TOTAL
23,738,000
20,431,000
86.07%
2,506,000
1,806,000
10.56%
72.07%
8.40%
1,779,000
41.52%
State
Maine
North
Carolina
South
Dakota
2004
Latino
Reg
2004
Latino
Turnout
2006 U.S. House Election Results
Party by Margin of Victory - All
2006 U.S. House Election Results
Party by Margin of Victory – Close Elections
Close Margins of Victory in 2006
Less Than 5%
•
Democrats
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
Connecticut 2 - Joe Courtney - 0.0%
Georgia 12 - John Barrow - 0.6%
Pennsylvania 8 - Patrick J. Murphy - 0.6%
Georgia 8 - Jim Marshall - 1.0%
Florida 16 - Tim Mahoney - 1.8%
Wisconsin 8 - Steve Kagen - 2.1%
Kentucky 3 - John Yarmuth - 2.4%
New York 19 - John Hall - 2.4%
New Hampshire 1 - Carol Shea-Porter - 2.7%
Iowa 2 - Dave Loebsack - 2.8%
Kansas 2 - Nancy Boyda - 3.5%
Florida 22 - Ron Klein - 3.8%
Pennsylvania 4 - Jason Altmire - 3.8%
Arizona 5 - Harry E. Mitchell - 4.0%
Indiana 9 - Baron P. Hill - 4.5%
•
Republicans
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Florida 13 - Vern Buchanan - 0.2%
North Carolina 8 - Robin Hayes - 0.2%
New Mexico 1 - Heather A. Wilson - 0.4%
Ohio 15 - Deborah Pryce - 0.5%
Wyoming AL - Barbara Cubin - 0.5%
Ohio 2 - Jean Schmidt - 1.1%
New Jersey 7 - Mike Ferguson - 1.4%
Pennsylvania 6 - Jim Gerlach - 1.4%
New York 25 - James T. Walsh - 1.6%
Nevada 3 - Jon Porter - 1.9%
Colorado 4 - Marilyn Musgrave - 2.5%
Illinois 6 - Peter Roskam - 2.8%
Virginia 2 - Thelma Drake - 2.8%
New York 29 - John R. "Randy" Kuhl Jr. 3.0%
Washington 8 - Dave Reichert - 3.0%
California 4 - John T. Doolittle - 3.1%
Connecticut 4 - Christopher Shays - 3.4%
Michigan 7 - Tim Walberg - 3.9%
New York 26 - Thomas M. Reynolds - 4.0%
Ohio 1 - Steve Chabot - 4.4%
2010 Gubernatorial Elections
2010 U.S. Senate Elections