The Demographic Transition
— A Contemporary Look at
a Classic Model
A lesson plan from “Making Population Real”
by the Population Reference Bureau
Supported by the World Population Fund
of the Minneapolis Foundation
Today’s Agenda
1. Introduce objectives and teaching standards
2. Describe and explore the “classic” model of
demographic transition
3. Explore alternative patterns from today’s
developing countries
4. Discuss the use of models
5. Introduce Making Population Real and PRB
Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2:
The Demographic Transition
Issues
 Population
growth
 Development
Population
Concepts
 Classic
Tools
 Line
model of demographic transition
 Patterns of changing birth and death
rates
graphs
 Research and analysis
Objectives
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To understand the classic demographic
transition (DT) model
To explain assumptions and limitations of the
classic DT model
To construct graphs of contemporary
demographic change
To explain contemporary demographic patterns
in the context of the classic DT model
Teaching Standards
AP Geography Standard Addressed
Unit II– Population Unit
B. Population growth and decline over time and
space
4. Regional variations of demographic transitions
AP and the Advanced Placement Program are registered
trademarks of the College Entrance Examination Board which was
not involved in the production of these lesson plans.
What is the Demographic
Transition?
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The shift from high to low mortality and fertility
Based on the experience of Western Europe
Began by Warren Thompson in 1929
Further developed in 1945 by Frank Notestein
A sign of socio-economic progress?
The Classic Demographic
Transition
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Birth rate
Natural
increase
Death rate
Time
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
Examine the Model
A Model is …
a
representation of some phenomenon of the real
world made in order to facilitate an understanding of
its workings
a
simplified and generalized version of real events,
from which the incidental detail has been removed
Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2:
The Demographic Transition
What population patterns are revealed in the
traditional Demographic Transition model?
Assignment:
 Construct a graph of birth and death rates in
England from 1750-2000.
Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2:
The Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition in Sweden
and Mexico
Births/Deaths per 1,000
60
50
40
Sweden
Birth Rate
Mexico
Birth Rate
30
Death Rate
20
Death Rate
10
0
1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Sources: B.R. Mitchell, European Historical Statistics 1750-1970 (1976): table B6; Council of Europe, Recent
Demographic Developments in Europe 2001 (2001): tables T3.1 and T4.1; CELADE, Boletin demografico 69 (2002):
tables 4 and 7; Francisco Alba-Hernandez, La poblacion de Mexico (1976): 14; and UN Population Division, World
Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (2003): 326.
Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2:
The Demographic Transition
How useful is the classic model of demographic
transition in today’s world?
Assignment:
 Construct a graph showing the birth and death
rates for one of four assigned countries.
Data for Demographic Transition
Is the Demographic Transition
Model Still Useful?
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How well does the classic model work?
Is it a useful framework for developing
countries?
Do developing countries need to share the
experiences of Europe and the United States?
Is the socioeconomic change experienced by
industrialized countries a prerequisite or a
consequence of demographic transition?
Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2:
The Demographic Transition
Activities:
1. Explaining Population Change:

Graph changing birth & death rates in classic model
(England)
 Graph & compare rates for Sweden & Mexico
2.
3.
Global Population Patterns and Demographic
Transitions:

Calculate natural increase by continent & country

Compare demographic with economic indicators
Can an Old Model Explain New Trends?

Compare national population patterns to model
Making Population Real
Lesson Plans

Population Fundamentals – Building a Foundation

Populations in the Path of Natural Hazards

The Demographic Transition –
A Contemporary Look at a Classic Model

HIV/AIDS and Contemporary Population Dynamics

Population Policy – Progress Since Cairo

People on the Move

Global Migration Patterns
About Making Population Real
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Free, on-line curricula utilize up-to-date realworld data and articles from a variety of webbased resources:
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United Nations (UNICEF, UNHCR, WHO, etc.)
U.S. Census Bureau
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
PRB research and publications
Lead author Martha B. Sharma, a teacher
Recipient of the 2006 Geographic Excellence in
Media Award from National Council for
Geographic Education
www.prb.org/educators
Population Reference Bureau

Informs people around the world about population,
health, and the environment, and empowers them to use
that information to advance the well-being of current and
future generations.

Analyzes demographic data and research to provide
objective, accurate, and up-to-date population
information in a format that is easily understood by
educators, journalists, and decision makers alike.