Week 5 : Wednesday 1st November
Lecturer: Jennifer Harper
Topic: Foresight Methodologies and
Processes
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Outline
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Introduction
Popular tool mix
Clustering of Methods by Task
Categories of Methods
Foresight and Forecasting Methodologies
Scanning and mapping trends and drivers
Scenarios
Delphi
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Popular Tools
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Expert panels
Scenarios – baseline,
success scenarios and
disruption scenarios
Horizon scanning
On-line fora and delphi
Creativity sessions
Future Dialogues
Popular Methods Worldwide (EFMN)
Expert Panels
600,0
Questionnaire/ Survey
Multi-use of Methods
LiteratureReview
500,0
Interviews
Brainstorming
400,0
TrendExtrapolation
SWOTAnalysis
300,0
Modelling&simulation
MegatrendAnalysis
Scenarios
200,0
Key Technologies
Futures Workshops
100,0
Essays
Delphi
Northern
America
LatinAmerica
TransEurope
Europeother
EU-15+
TRM
Australia
Asia
Africa
0,0
Clustering of Methods by Task
1. Methods to manage foresight
ROAME (Rationale, Objectives, Activities,
Monitoring and Evaluation)
 Set systems to document the process + outputs
- The structures – steering committee
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2. Pre-Foresight Methods
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Scoping
Identifying stakeholders – co-nomination
SWOT
Benchmarking
Environmental Scanning
Adapted from Miles 2002
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Clustering by Task
3. Foresight Generation
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Genius forecasting, Expert panels, Brainstorming,
Mindmapping
Relevance trees, cross-impact analysis, delphi,
scenarios, trend extrapolation…
Key technologies
4. Foresight action and renewal
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Action Plans, Demonstrators, Panel Embedding,
Publications, Outreach
Adapted from Miles 2002
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Categories by Criteria
Methods
Quantitative methods (use of
statistics and other data) to
elaborate future trends and impacts
−
Qualitative methods (drawing on
expert knowledge) to develop long
term strategies
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Methods to identify key points of
action to determine planning
strategies
−
Source: FOREN Guide
Trend extrapolation
− Simulation modelling
− Cross impact analysis
− System dynamics
Delphi method
− Experts panels
− Brainstorming
− Mindmapping
− Scenario analysis workshops
− SWOT analysis
Critical/ key technologies
− Relevance trees
− Morphological analysis
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Categories of Methods
Exploratory methods (“outward bound”) start
from the present and move forward to examine
kinds of alternative future developments it can
lead to. Look at implications of possible
developments that lie outside familiar trends:
What if methods
 Normative methods (“inward bound”) start with
the creation of a preliminary view of possible
(preferred) futures, then an analysis of how
these futures may grow out of the present asking what trends and events would take us
there or can be avoided. How methods.
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Source: Foren Guide
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Foresight and forecasting methodologies
Forecasting main tools:
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Traditional methods of
extrapolation.
econometric model
based on mechanics
and transposed to
microeconomics and
then macroeconomics.
Simulation modelling
Cross impact analysis
System dynamics
Foresight Main tools:
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Delphi method
Expert panels
Brainstorming
Mindmapping
Scenario analysis
and building
SWOT
Critical technologies
Relevance trees
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Scanning for relevant
trends and drivers
Horizon scanning is……
Looking ahead –
beyond usual timescales
Looking across –
beyond usual sources
Seeing things you don’t normally see
Source: Future Generation
Beyond a
single future
to
Implications
for today’s
decisions
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Global
External
Trends
Trends
Issues
Gearing
Movement
Fabienne
Goux-Baudiment
Namur, 01.06.18
ISSUES
Internal
Trends
Local
Past
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Future
Drivers (PEST /STEEPV)
A framework to look for drivers, trends
and impacts :
 Social
 Technological
 Economic
 Environmental
 Political
 Values
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Societal
An
empowered
ageing
population
Rising
expectations
…and
increasing in
developing
economies
…and an
ageing crisis
Under 20s
declining in
the UK
Rising
attainment
A widening
gender gap
Emergence of
the ethical
economy
More single
households
Global
economic
migration
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Technological
Mobile
computing
Lots of
information
Wireless cities
Rise of the
technologicall
y superior
learner
Changing work
and work
places
Changing
decision
making
Changing
business
models
MySpace
AIM
Blogs
You Tube
Second Life
Skype
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Increasing
value of
knowledge
Economic
Globalisation
Mobile
investment
Open source and
distributed
manufacturing
Importance of
soft skills
Labour
mobility
Co-opetition
End of Doha?
The economics
of scarcity or of
plenty?
China
…and
America
Rising
dependency
ratio
Slow or rapid
transition to
retirement
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Political
Evolution of
the EU
Public service
reform and
Self improving competitiveness
public services
Rise of non
state actors
Culture
change
Policy
divergence
since
devolution
e-Democracy
Step change in
customer care
Contract
between state
and citizen
Single Issue
everything
Nanny state or
light touch?
Competing
demands
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Environmental
Pressure to halt
global warming
Oil depletion
Water Wars
Quest for
sustainability
Carbon
credits?
Carbon neutral
consumption
Growth within
environmental
limits?
Biofuels?
Right to
mobility?
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SCAR Report: Major driving forces
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Figure 1
DRIVERS OF CHANGE
FOR HIGHER
EDUCATION
INTERNATIONALISATION
International
mobility
International
governance
e-learning
New entrants
Competition
Tuition
fees
Insufficient
resources
BUSINESS
Globalisation
Specialisation
Differentiation
Commercialisation
Open
innovation
Business
Cooperation
RESEARCH
New research
technologies
Student
consumerism
STUDENT
NUMBERS
Widening
participation
Demographic
change
Mapping Drivers
Growth
Liberalisation
ICT convergence
Relocation
Eurozone
Competitors
Knowledge transfer
Infectious
diseases
Food safety
New technologies
Energy
Environment
ICT application
Malta 2015
finance
Security
Education
MOST
Economic
IMPORTANT
sustainability
Survival
Demand
Global Market
Customer
expectations
Social needs Ageing
Health
Infrastructure
Networking
Eliminate waste
Cross Impact Matrix
How does
this 
affect
this

Top executives of
high-profile
corporations
employ deceptive
practices to rob
shareholders.
Top executives of
high-profile
corporations
employ deceptive
practices to rob
shareholders.
The forces of
economic
globalization make
national borders
permeable to
commerce and
enable free trade.
Americans tend to
value decentralized
government.
Permeable borders
and free trade
create more
opportunities for
deceptive business
practices.
Decentralized
government
weakens federal
regulatory power
and creates a
divide and conquer
phenomenon
American support
for decentralized
government will
promote laissezfaire trade while
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accelerating trends
The forces of
Corporate
economic
malfeasance could
globalization make make lawmakers
national borders
wary and incline
permeable to
them to impose
http://ghost.rider.edu/cii/presen/matrix.doc
commerce
and
barriers to
FUTURE GENERATION
How to get relevant evidence (3)
Importance
(visibility)
Time
Horizon 1: current and near V
future. Many of the drivers shaping the near future are already locked
into place and are visible - even if we sometimes still have to make sense of them
Horizon 2: looking towards a further out future. Current trends are beginning to shape it, but its
exact form is not yet clear. Early signals – and trends are beginning to emerge
Horizon 3: the distant future. There are no discernable patterns and it is very difficult
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separate signals from background noise.
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Source: Hans Georg Graf
FUTURE GENERATION
 Building
scenarios
• Key drivers of change
• Uncertainties
• Select key variables
• Write the stories
Using scenarios
• Create dialogue
• Identify research goals
• Identify choices
• Define strategy
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Scenarios
'the description of a possible future and the
corresponding path to it' (Godet)
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Exploratory (outward) What next? What if?
Moving from present to the future
 Normative (inward) Where to? How to?
Moving from future back to the present
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Normative scenarios describe preferred
alternatives, e.g. Success scenario.
 Disruption scenarios depict deep breaks or
even breakdown in current trends
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GODET’s Scenarios
Godet presents 5 basic attitudes to the future:
1.
the “passive” ostrich (go with the flow)
2.
the “reactive” firefighter (damage
reduction)
3.
the “preactive” insurer(accident
prevention)
4.
the “proactive” innovative conspirator
(innovators)
5.
the “anticipative” actor (blend of 2,3 &4)
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Building scenarios
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More consensual
Scenario 1
Creative
governance
Individual
identity
Political/
economic
Scenario 2
Communities
unite
Group
identity
Sociocultural
Scenario 4
Chaos rules
Scenario 3
Group rule
Less democracy
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SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
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Focus on current situation
 Expert teams in Scenario workshops and Delphi
 Based on interviews, statistical or benchmarking
Main internal and external factors influencing strategies (or
possible futures) in positive or negative ways.
 S: internal positive factors O: external positive factors
 W: internal negative factors T: external negative factors
http://www.quickmba.com/strategy/swot/
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The Delphi Process
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Chronology of delphi activity
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Organising a Delphi
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Decide if appropriate method
 Define objectives
 Set up of expert panels (virtual?)
 Shift to use of On-line delphi, e.g. Euforia and Fistera
projects
 Formulate statements
 Structure the fields and define topics
 Set criteria: time horizon (30 years), level of expertise,
leader in this field, policy measures, open questions.
 Design questionnaire
 feedback to experts in second round
 final presentation of data to clients.
 Constraints: complex logistics, time resource intensive
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Delphi Result:topic clusters
Source: Kuhls, 2001
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For discussion
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Choices re methods tend to reflect local
competencies, international experiences, and, of
course, objectives and orientation
 Decisions on methods can be devolved, e.g. to
panels of experts, but this has its own problems
and challenges. . .
 “The diversity in European foresight
methodology makes for a rich pallet of
techniques but it also leads to reinventing the
wheel”. Discuss
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References
 http://forera.jrc.es/fta/intro.html
 http://www.efmn.info
 http://cordis.europa.eu/foresight/home.htm
 http://www.eranet-forsociety.net/ForSociety
 http://www.costa22.org/
 http://forlearn.jrc.es/index.htm
 http://www.unido.org/doc/12296
 http://www.futurreg.net/
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