HN2210 - Ch 7
1 Index/Trend Analysis
1.1 Defined
Uses relationship of an index to labour demand.
1.2 Predicts what?
Usually use sales, but can use units, clients, production, etc.
Can predict more specifically - ex, direct and indirect labour
1.3 Example
Index_Trend_Analysis.xls
2 Expert Forecasts
Most common method - direct managerial input
2.1 What experts?
Direct managers; HR & Bus planners
Others (business consultants, financial analysts, researchers, union, industry ...)
Government
3 Delphi Technique
3.1 Defined
3.1.1 Define/Refine Issue
In the case of HR forecasting, this means narrow down the personnel category or activity
3.1.2 ID Experts, Time horizon
Get experts; negotiate conditions if they're not in the organization; What time horizon are we
considering in the forecast?
3.1.3 Orient Experts
3.1.3.1 Overivew demand forecasting process
3.1.3.2 Tell them the 'stop' condition
ie, we stop after x iterations, ITOR when a majority is reached
3.1.4 1st Round Questionnaire
Get their opinion, including their assumptions and rationale
3.1.5 1st Round Q summary; 2nd round Questionnaire
Summarize results of 1st; send out; helps focus, identify commonality and conflict, etc
3.1.6 Continue / End
X iterations, or majority (or - I suppose - X% support, up to unanimity)
3.2 Pros
Avoids MANY problems of face-to-face meetings (reluctance to participate for various reasons
(shyness, status/authority, Cx deficiencies; dominance/groupthink); geographic dispersion)
3.3 Cons
Costs; depends on individual knowledge; people from similar fields will gravitate twd similar ideas;
weak criteria for idntifying/selecting experts
4 Nominal Group Technique
4.1 Diff from Delphi
4.1.1 Meets face-to-face
4.1.2 Each estimate is the GROUP'S
4.1.3 Secret vote
The highest ranked estimate is deemed to be the group's forecast
4.2 Steps
4.2.1 Define/refine issue & time horizon
Ex: "What will be ABC's demand for production workers 5 yrs from now?" Include assumptions
and rationale (same as Delphi)
4.2.2 Select Experts
4.2.3 Issue the Statement to experts
4.2.4 Experts create estimate (incl assumption/rationale)
This way, everyone is aware of rationale etc before going into f2f meetings
4.2.5 F2F Meeting
Present all the estimates - NO individual discussion!
4.2.6 Discussion
Focus on supportive info
4.2.7 Secret vote
5 HR Budgets: Staffing Table
See Belcourt Table 7.1
Shows category and individual job projections, for different activity levels.
Note: the 'activity level' is one single-dimensional factor.
6 Envelope/Scenario Forecasting
6.1 Defined
Is longer term than the Staffing Table
Comes up with multiple estimates at multiple points - each has its own 'staffing table'
6.2 Process
And what's the advantage? (perhaps contingent plans; or perhaps, rapid response after patter starts
to show)
7 Regression Analysis
Plug in all the data ... for example, plug in cost of gas, unemployment rate, housing sales, you name
it - plus your sales levels.
Run a regression analysis (SPSS or SAS).
For each of your (independent) variables, it spits out an equation (IF there IS a relationship).
Y = a + bx