Global Trends and Civic
Activism 2012 – 2030:
Radical Change!
Juraj Mesík
Citizen Participation University, Hungary, July 2012
mesik@changenet.sk
Working Hypothesis:
„Period of the long growth hit the limits
and is finished – period of the long
descend is beginning“
Structural, not cyclic crisis
If 3S /civic groups are to stay relevant,
they must change radically - cosmetic
changes do not suffice
Real Crisis is only at the very
beginning – and it will last decades
- Financial Crisis – the end of life on debt
- Peak Oil and its economic consequences
- Destabilization of global climate...
... leading to food crisis
- Accelerating social polarization
... And other fundamental global trends are out
of human control...
- Large discontinuites – not linear processes!
Key Trends for 2010 - 2030 Period
Climate Change – intoxication of the environment by
our „metabolites“ – CO2, CH4, NOx
Peak Oil – depletion of crucial resource base for
human civilization. Many other “peaks” –
“Peak Everything”
Food (in) security
Water crisis
Financial systems collapse and economic contraction
Social polarization
Peak of human population growth
Key questions are not „if“, but:
How Fast?
How Far/High/Deep?
How fast?
Bill: „How you went bankckrupt?“
Mike: „At the beginning gradually, and then suddenly“
Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
Not if, but when
Tipping points dynamics
Dozens of potential black swan (trigger) events:
-
Chinese growth below 8.5% in 2012
More QE in the USA
uprising / war in Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Iraq...
Israeli attack on Iran
drought or summer heat wave in the USA, Russia...
Eurozone shocks – Spain, Italy... and many other
Since 1980, whole economic growth
of the USA is financed by debt ...
U.S. trade balance history: since 1980
imports payed by printed paper
But not only USA are indebted up to ears...
These, not only Greek or Spanish debts
are not payable
Illusion of global wealth
Illusion wealth waiting for „price discovery“:
ghost cities of China, mirage cities of Arabia
Big question: how are 7% distributed among bottom 99%?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/03/income%20disparity.jpg
The latter three groups saw their median household net worth
fall by roughly 60% between 2005 and 2010, while the median
net worth for white households slipped 23%.
http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/21/news/economy/wealth-gap-race/index.htm?iid=HP_LN&hpt=us_c2
Geography of Income (in)equalities) – Gini Index
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/images/content/208488main_global_tem
p_change.jpg
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2007/img/co2_data_mlo.2007.m.gif
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/20
12/02/Figure2.png
Ice Free Arctic in Summer 2015? - Peter Wadham, U. of Cambridge
http://arctic-news.blogspot.sk/2012/03/rebuttal-imminent-collapse-of-arctic.html
Which regions face Dust-Bowlification - Palmer Drought Severity Index
- reading of -4 or below is considered extreme drought
•Much of Latin America, including large sections of Mexico and Brazil
•Regions around Mediterranean Sea, which could become especially dry
•Large parts of Southwest Asia
•Most of Africa and Australia
•Southeast Asia, including parts of China and neighboring countries
2011 was impacted by the 5th-largest La
Niña influence of any given year since
1950, and the largest since 1974
Average of NOAA, GISS, and HadCRUT annual global surface temperature
anomalies. Blue bars indicate years influenced by La Niña events. 2011 is the
warmest La Niña-influenced year on record (Source: WMO)
(2011 - the 5th-largest La Niña influence since 1950, and the largest since 1974)
http://www.skepticalscience.com/prediction-new-surface-temperature-record-2013.html
Percentage of the contiguous U.S. either in severe or greater drought (top 10%
dryness) or extremely wet (top 10% wetness) during the period January - November,
as computed using NOAA's Climate Extremes Index. Remarkably, more than half of
the country (56%) experienced either a top-ten driest or top-ten wettest year, a new
record. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html
FAO Food Price Index, July 5, 2012
Considering EROEI...
http://205.254.135.7/EMEU/cabs/Yemen/images/Yeman%20oilprod&cons%201991-2011.gif
„The world's oil reserves have been exaggerated by up to a third, according to
Sir David King, the Government's former chief scientist, who has warned of
shortages and price spikes within years. ... It's critically important that reserves have
been overstated, and if you take this into account, we're talking supply not
meeting demand in 2014-2015.“
The Telegraph, March 22, 2010
And it can go much faster: Total indigenous UK production of crude oil
and NGLs in the third quarter of 2011 was 22.7 % lower than a year before
Geography of Oil - Vulnerability
Top World Oil Producers, 2010
(Thousand Barrels per day)
1 Saudi Arabia
10,521
2 Russia
10,124
3 United States
9,648
4 China
4,273
5 Iran
4,252
6 Canada
3,457
7 Mexico
2,983
8 United Arab Emirates
2,813
9 Brazil
2,746
10 Nigeria
2,458
11 Kuwait
2,450
12 Iraq
2,408
13 Venezuela
2,375
14 Norway
2,134
15 Algeria
2,078
Top World Oil Net Importers, 2009
Thousand Barrels per Day)
1 United States
9,631
2 China
4,542
3 Japan
4,261
4 Germany
2,319
5 Korea, South
2,142
6 India
2,131
7 France
1,791
8 United Kingdom
1,566
9 Spain
1,440
10 Italy
1,397
11 Netherlands
962
12 Singapore
942
13 Taiwan
894
14 Turkey
650
15 Belgium
619
Geography of Oil - Vulnerability
Top World Oil Consumers, 2010
(Thousand Barrels per Day)
1 United States
2 China
3 Japan
4 India
5 Russia
6 Saudi Arabia
7 Brazil
8 Germany
9 Korea, South
10 Canada
11 Mexico
12 France
13 Iran
14 United Kingdom
15 Italy
19,148
9,392
4,423
3,116
3,038
2,650
2,560
2,489
2,249
2,237
2,141
1,814
1,800
1,626
1,503
25 m. people
82 m. people
64 m. people
76 m. people
Geography of Oil - Vulnerability
Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2009
(Thousand Barrels per Day)
1 Saudi Arabia
2 Russia
3 Iran
4 United Arab Emirates
5 Norway
6 Kuwait
7 Nigeria
8 Angola
9 Algeria
10 Iraq
11 Venezuela
12 Libya
13 Kazakhstan
14 Canada
15 Qatar
7,300
7,007
2,407
2,270
2,125
2,124
1,939
1,874
1,773
1,764
1,719
1,525
1,299
1,137
1,077
wahabists
suspicious of the West?
hostile to the West
? (Arab spring II?)
Liberal Democracy
? (Arab spring II?)
on the brink of civil war?
OK
? (Arab spring II?)
on the brink of civil war?
hostile to the West / U.S.
on the brink of civil war?
OK? Will follow Russia
Liberal Democracy
? (Arab spring II?)
Source U.S. EIA : http://205.254.135.7/countries/index.cfm?topL=exp
Annual global oil consumption
is 1 cubic mile. To replace it
would require:
200
2,600
5,200
1,642,500
4,562,500,000
Three Gorges dams
nuclear plants
coal plants
wind turbines
solar panels
In the financial crisis conditions???
Net Trade in Food: Vulnerability of MENA
but also PIGS... Mexico...
Why? Energy intensity of modern food production
When food expensive, OPEC needs more money for imports
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-10-21/markets/30305401_1_growth-in-global-oil-oil-reserves-oil-price/2
The First Social Consequences
- your savings may be lost or frozen in bankcrupt banks
- oil price – the most vulnerable jobs in car industry, air
transportation, tourism, construction, banking ... –
unemployment growth (Detroit 30%, Greece, Spain – youth,
tourism dependence (Egypt too...))
- higher energy prices will increase costs of housing /
heating– „energy poverty“ (UK)
- fuel costs and droughts/floods will push food costs up
- decrease in general consumption / discretionary
spending will put pressure on other jobs (restaurants,
sport facilities, shops with luxury goods...)
- vulnerable all non - essential jobs serving upper part
of Maslow pyramid („political scientist to each village!)
Unable to sustain existing infrastructure...
The First Social Consequences II
- Narrowing tax base of governments and growth in
state´s social expenditures – necessity to limit services
- stop in HDP growth will lead to state´s failures to pay
back debt – state bankruptcy, deeper cuts in services
- Worsening in access and quality of public education,
health care, social support, police, collapse of pension
systems
- Richer strata moving to private schools, hospitals,
gated communities
- Weaker state means risk of increased criminality,
lawlessness, anarchy (Wild West, robber barons)
- floods, droughts, wildfires, storms will make problems
harder and deeper (Morava 1997, CR 2002, Katrina 2005...)
Decline will be hard (unemployment, spread of poverty,
loss of dignity...), but societal responses can make it
much worse - unpredictability!
Time dependence of. FAO Food Price Index from 1/2004 to 5/2011 Red dashed
vertical lines correspond to beginning dates of „food riots" and protests associated with
the major recent unrest in MENA. The overall death toll is reported in parentheses
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1108.2455v1.pdf
Expect these changes:
1. Higher energy costs, food costs and recession
2. Decrease in economic activity
3. Transport difficulties, possible electricity blackouts
4. Possible collapse of monetary system
5. Failure of basic economic expectations
6. Move towards local production
7. Less debt financing
8. Less emphasis on insurance and pensions
(“discounted future” – Stoneleigh, Roma, Africa…)
9. More people working manually, in agriculture
10. Wars and migration conflicts
11. Changes in family relations (future of romantic love?)
12. Eventually population decrease... (think MENA)
Why do People Refuse to Accept
De-growth Scenario
and Instead Stick to expecting
Never-ending Growth?
-Lack of knowledge, real life illiteracy, personal experience missing by generations and
myth of „eternal growth“, media manipulation and distraction (check today newspaper!)
are part of it
- But even intelligent and curious people avoid the reality: Why?
- Elisabeth Kubler-Ross offers understanding of this behaviour:
5 stages of response to death (The Five Stages of Grief“):
1 Denial
2 Anger
3 Bargaining/Negotiation
4 Depression
5 Acceptance
Crash program for „Long Descent“
- Do not expect it from politicians - elections
are won by pink illusions, not bad news.
- People will look for scapegoats – Roma...
- Media are sold by „celebrities“, sport news,
not by analytical articles
- Demand for crash strategy will eventually
emerge: sooner-better
- Till then do not wait for government, your
region, town or village – go for individual/
/family/community adaptation
- Read J.M. Greer, R. Hopkins, D. Orlov...
Key tasks of civic organizations and
foundations in preparation for crisis:
- Maintain capacity to operate – protect
capital of foundations, stay liquid
- Build awareness of public/ grantees about
the risks of crisis, its reasons and
consequences: there are almost no political
solutions - manage expectations!
- Programmaticaly assist sensitized public
and partners with their preparations for crisis –
food security of individuals, communities,
(urban gardening etc.), education for „real life“
at schools, import „transition initiatives“ etc.
Personal crash program
- Technologies will solve it!
It cannot happen to us! .... Denial
- Prozac, seropram, zoloft, lithium......
Or...
- Suppress consumer expectations – yours
as well as your children´s
- Consider (not) having them – its hard to run with them
- Trade virtual property (shares, accounts) for real
- Do not sell grandparents´ „grunt“
- Take good care of your health - quit smoking now!
Personal crash program
- gardening is excellent hobby - permaculture
- excrements and urine are fertilizers (China)
- insulate your house/apartment
- if you live too close to a stream, move away
- install solar water heating
- wood stove may come handy
- teach yourself and your kids new skills –
near the base of Maslow pyramid
- build relationships with friends, neighbors
- learn to shoot  (Russia, Argentina...)
Crisis does not need to be a tragedy – a lot
depends on people´s reactions
- Ask your grandparents (wars, communism)
- It is good to know lessons from not so
remote past - village of my father (Selce):
1939 – electric light („tyrrany of darkness“)
1949 – bus do BB (until then walking, bikes)
1951 – village radio (replaced drummer)
1956 – first paved road
1966 – village sewerage
1969 – joint water supply, 1991-97 gasification
Crisis does not need to be a tragedy – a lot
depends on people´s reactions
Lessons from not so remote past Russia after collapse of the USSR
- Food – shops quickly empty, panic, hoarding
- Roof above head – return to big family, many
people in a small place = mutual help, low
costs per capita, security – guarding stuff...
- Fuels – non available or low allocations! – bikes,
motorbikes, sharing travel costs (Cuba: not to take
hikers is je illegal
- Security – rent unemployed soldier, policeman...
Food supplies of „preparers“
- Oregon Trail list – 6 months
- Klondike list – 1 year ...
- Key components – canned food – can last years –
e.g. even if nothing happens, good hedge against
inflation!
- Beans, meat, condensed milk, sugar, oil, fruits, hard
spaghetti...
- Long term strategy – vegetable garden, fruit trees,
chickens, rabbits
Crisis does not need to be a tragedy – a lot
depends on people´s reactions
Lessons from not so remote past
Argentina 1999-2002
- Security, security, security – criminality – firing arms, bullet
proof vest, ammunition, safety measures...
- Collapse of services – what will you offer?
- Water - filter, pump, well, containers...
- Electricity - lack of lights (head lamps), PCs, fridge... generator (Africa...), battery charger
- Cooking, heat – gas supplies may fails, reserves needed –
electric cooker, propan-butan, wood stove...
- Trade, money – gold, silver
- Food – long lasting... Fuel containers (car), books, TV, DVDs
Crisis does not need to be a tragedy – a lot
depends on people´s reactions
Lessons from not so remote past
Cuba after the collapse of USSR
Richard Heinberg´s lecture
http://www.findhorn.org/aboutus/video/richard-heinberg/
- organic agriculture specialists available, with plans for
radical change in food production
- It is easier to move soil to people and grow in cities
- pots, balconies, parking lots, parks...
- political will clear and strong
- high discipline, social equity
- hurricanes adaptation – early warning, minishelters (versus
New Orleans 2005)
Crisis does not need to be a tragedy – a lot
depends on people´s reactions
Lessons from not so remote past
USA during the Great Depression and WWII
Richard Heinberg´s lecture
http://www.findhorn.org/aboutus/video/richard-heinberg/
- first no response, but then Roosevelt´s New Deal : put people
at work – massive public works program – from planting forests
to public arts (murals)
- „Victory gardens“ – increased production of vegetables and
fruits by 40% - gardens, golf courts, parks...
- also UK 1938-1945 – health „revolution“ during U-boat
blockade)
To not anticipate is costly...
On the Easter Island as well as in the Europe,
500 years ago as well as today...
Welcome...
... to the shining future ! 