ASSOCIATION FOR CANADIAN
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES (ACER)
Applied Climate Change Conference
May 23-24, 2013
Community Sustainability under
a Changing Climate
Don C. MacIver
mayor.maciver@hotmail.com
Marianne Karsh
mbkarsh@gmail.com
Climate Change is a
global-local issue
Sustainable
Communities
Safety/Health
Adaptation to:
• Changing climate
• Changing hazards
• Changing behaviour
Biodiversity
Adaptation to:
• Changing landscapes
• Changing species/seeds
• Changing ecosystems
Competitiveness
Adaptation to:
• Changing markets
• Changing regulations
• Changing technologies
UN/ISDR Resilient Cities Campaign
Resilient Communities National Platform
POINT 1: The Atmosphere is
unforgiving
POINT 2: The Climate is already
Changing
How has the Climate Been
Changing in the Area?
Toronto Annual Temperature
(1878-2002)
16
Temperature (
o
C)
Maximum
12
Mean
8
Minimum
4
0
1878
1898
1918
1938
1958
1978
1998
Year
Since late 1800s
Annual Temps: Warmed
Toronto Annual Precipitation
(1895-2002)
Precipitation (mm)
1400
Mean Temps ~ 2.7 C
Min Temps most ~4.1C
1200
1000
800
600
1895
1915
1935
1955
Year
1975
1995
Annual Precip:
Slight Increase?
Toronto Pearson Airport
2020’s
8.8
Adapting to the Changing Climate
8.6
1981-2010 Normal Temp = 8.4
8.4
8.2
8
7.8
1971-2000 Normal Temp =
7.5
7.6
7.4
1961-1990 Normal Temp =
7.2
7.2
7
1981-1990
1991-2000
2001-2010
Climate Change Ensemble Not
Sign. Difference from 2001-2010
Decade
Celebrity Storms: Visible
impacts with extremes…
forest fires
floods
Waves and storms
droughts, heat spells
Saguenay flooding (1996),
26 millions m3 of water
and 9 millions tons of debris
The Great Ice Storm (1998),1,5 millions
customers without electricity for up to 30 days
Threats to Biodiversity in
Canada
• Land-Use Change
• Climate Change
• Insects/Disease/Fire
Page 8
POINT 3: Landscapes
are also changing
• Loss of Biodiversity
POINT 4: The Climate will be Changing
Global Climate Model Projections for Region – 2050s
Annual Mean
Temps Warming
2.6 – 4.0 C
Annual Mean Precip
Increasing
6-15%
Scenario data from AR4 CGCM3 and HadCM3
Changes relative to 1961-1990 Baseline Climate
Biodiversity Monitoring Themes
There are four general themes under which most
forest biodiversity monitoring activities fall:
Monitoring based on species at risk
Monitoring based on population trends
Monitoring based on status and trends in
habitat
Monitoring based on threats to biodiversity
Page 12
Comparison of Proportion of Live and Dead
Eastern Flowering Dogwoods in
Backus Woods 1995-2003
Dead
Alive
100
80
Number of 60
Trees
40
20
0
1995
2000
Year
2003
Climate and Forest Biodiversity
Using Smithsonian Global
Biodiversity Observation Network
“Canada can ill-afford the
loss of one species”
Planned Adaptation: Increasing Habitat Biodiversity Under Climate Change by 2020
Pre-settlement Baseline
Biodiversity Data (1792)
Marianne Karsh and Don MacIver
Figure 1. Pre-settlement Biodiversity Data
southern Ontario in 1972.
Climate Change Scenarios
Figure 3. Modeled warming in southern Ontario using an
ensemble of climate change models.
• Habitat biodiversity levels in the pre-settlement
period were significantly higher than today.
• Using one climate change model, by itself,
produced inflated results, compared to the
ensemble of the top 7 out of 24 verified models.
•Climate Change Scenarios for GCM’s and RCM’s
are available from www.cccsn.ca and the climatebiodiversity examples at
www.canadabiodiversity.ca.
National Biodiversity Observing
Sites (NBOS)
Conclusion
Figure 4. Historical rate of loss of native biodiversity and responses of
biodiversity under climate change along with land-use regulation,
insect/disease controls and planned adaptation.
Figure 2. National Biodiversity Observing Sites
(NBOS) and the Heat Unit by Family Biodiversity
Model.
• The Sustainable Biodiversity Baseline is defined as the
level established at the time of the pre-settlement land
surveys.
• The Smithsonian Institution network now
numbers more than 500 sites worldwide with
more than 100 sites across Canada, including
more than 25 in southern Ontario.
• Significant losses in native biodiversity result from little
or no land-use regulatory controls and expansion of
high-value agricultural crops as illustrated by the Essex
curves, in which the wetlands have disappeared and
only 5% of the original habitat remains today.
• In Canada, heat is the primary driver of
climate-triggered changes in habitat
biodiversity.
• The heat unit by family biodiversity model is
based on observational data and has helped
understand (>85% explanation) and predict
the effects of a changing climate.
• Provided that land-use regulation, agricultural
expansion and insects/diseases are controlled, the
incremental warming of the climate system will create a
more favourable environment for a recovery (planned
adaptation) to pre-settlement levels in habitat
biodiversity (native and new species) over the next
hundred years.
• Re-establishment of the sustainable biodiversity baseline
under climate change by 2020 is illustrated by the Long
Point curves, based on appropriate land-use regulation
and the proactive planting of native and new species (i.e.
planned adaptation).
References
•Butt, S. and A. Fenech. 2000. Pre-European Settlement Landcover
Mapping of Southern Ontario. Unpublished report, Environment
Canada, Toronto, Ontario. 35 pp.
•Dallmeier, F., A. Fenech, D.C MacIver and R. Szaro (eds.). 2010.
Climate Change, Biodiversity and Sustainability in the Americas.
Smithsonian Institution Scholarly Press, Washington, D.C. 183 pp.
•Fenech, A., D.C. MacIver and F. Dallmeier (eds.). 2009. Climate
Change and Biodiversity in the Americas. Adaptation and Impacts
Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario. 346 pp.
•MacIver, D.C., M.B. Karsh and N. Comer. 2009. Climate change and
Biodiversity: Implications for Monitoring, Science and Adaptive
Planning. Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research
Division (AIRD), Toronto, Ontario. 184 pp.
Toronto Biodiversity Potential
Page 17
Climate Change Experimental
Biodiversity Site
• Association for Canadian Educational Resources (ACER)
and Arborvitae is monitoring impacts of warmer temperatures
on biodiversity at the Humber Arboretum in NW Toronto
• Documenting response on 1 hectare biodiversity plot of
native, new forest and herbaceous species
• Info will be used to develop new planting protocols,
adaptive management practices under climate change
Biological Threats to Biodiversity
M.B. Karsh, A. Casselman, D.C. MacIver, S. Fung, and H. Auld
Page 19
United Nations Publications
Climate Change and
Biodiversity
Publications
Dallmeier, F., A. Fenech, D.C MacIver and R. Szaro (eds.). 2010.
Climate Change, Biodiversity & Sustainability in the Americas.
Smithsonian Institution Scholarly Press, Washington, D.C. 183 pp.
Fenech, A., D.C. MacIver and F. Dallmeier (eds.). 2009. Climate
Change and Biodiversity in the Americas. Adaptation and Impacts
Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, On. 346 pp.
•MacIver, D.C., M.B. Karsh and N. Comer. 2009. Climate change and
Biodiversity: Implications for Monitoring, Science and Adaptive
Planning. Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research
Division, Toronto, On. 184 pp.
•MacIver D, 2013 (Accepted For Publication), Climate Sense For
Municipalities, Municipal World Publication
•MacIver D, Karsh M, 2010, Planned Adaptation - How Municipalities
Can Save Energy And Increase Habitat Biodiversity Under Climate
Change By 2020 And Beyond, Municipal World Publication
•MacIver D, Fernandez S, 2010, Canadian Drought Alert And
Monitoring Program - The Do-It-Yourself Drought Alert And Water
Conservation Tool, Municipal World Publication
•MacIver D, Butt S, Auld H, Klaassen J, 2009, Severe Weather is the #1
Risk To Ontario Municipalities, Municipal World Publication
Page 21
Thank you!