SEC3 2014 Engaging Leeds
Yes and No Minister: working as a
policy economist
How to be a Successful Policy Economist
A vocational approach to Economics
Cathy Dolan and Andy Ross
Drivers
• The Dearing report (NCIHE 1997) sparked a debate on HE and
employability.
• External factors such as the economic crisis and the expansion
of HE has resulted in a competitive jobs market for graduates.
• The Association of Graduate Recruiters (2012) reports an
average of 75 applicants for each vacancy.
• The University of Leeds introduced the employability curricula
thread.
• In 2012 the Economics Network surveyed employers
(Pomorina 2012) and reported that the ability to communicate
complex ideas to non-economists was highly valued but mostly
lacking in graduates.
As economics developed their employability strategy this new,
innovative module was added to the portfolio.
Recruitment to the
Government Economic Service
2012
Uni
Leeds
Oxford
Edinburgh
LSE
Bristol
York
Cambridge
Source: GES
Applicants
(N)
14
24
13
20
22
11
23
Successful---(N)
5
8
4
6
6
3
5
%
36
33
31
30
27
27
22
$£ €
MV≡PY
WR≡Y Y ≡E
MV≡PT
UNCLASSIFIED
¥
Leeds University is proud of its
erudition, objectivity & rigour
We’re here to change all that!
Syllabus: Vocational
orientation
• What professional practitioners do
• The power of big ideas and good stories
• Choosing one thing over another
• What’s on the policy horizon?
• Why most applicants fail
• How to spin, and when you shouldn’t
• Why it’s a lot more than science
• Policy case studies
• Strengths and weaknesses of economics for policy
GES and Bank of England
conferences etc.
Broad agreement that economics students need:
• more history and real-world context
• better practical data-handling skills
• to communicate to non-specialists
• to appreciate the limitations of modelling
• a pluralistic approach to economics,
• deductive and inductive reasoning
SEC3 2014 Engaging Leeds
Please re-arrange the following in order of frequency of use by
government economists:
Cost-benefit analysis
Analysis involving maths
Game Theory
Synthesising Evidence
Econometric analysis
GES frequency of use 2012
The usual university prioritisation
Synthesising Evidence 84.4%
Cost-benefit analysis 68 %
Analysis involving maths 53.2%
Econometric analysis 51.5%
Game Theory 15 %
Analysis involving maths
Econometric analysis
Game Theory
Cost-benefit analysis
Synthesising Evidence
Spinning
You can mislead without lies
There are over 1000 people
living in Leeds today who have
more than the average number
of legs!
Pick a card- any card
UNCLASSIFIED
I’ve removed your card
UNCLASSIFIED
Leading questions from
‘Yes Minister’
Are you worried about the number of young people without
jobs?
Are you worried about the increase in drugs and crime
committed by teenagers?
Are you concerned about the lack of discipline in our schools?
Do you think that young people would welcome some authority
and leadership in their lives?
Do you think young people would respond to a challenge?
Would you vote in favour of compulsory military service?
Yes, you probably would, especially after all your other responses.
UNCLASSIFIED
OR
Are you concerned about the danger of a terrorist war?
Are you worried about the growth of the weapons industry?
Are you concerned about the increasing availability of firearms
on the street?
Do you think there is danger in teaching people how to use guns
to kill people?
Do you think it’s wrong to force people to take up arms against
their will?
Would you vote against compulsory military service?
Yes, you probably would, especially after all those ‘yes’ answers.
UNCLASSIFIED
Gordon Brown April 2009
"I take full responsibility for what happened that is why the person that was responsible
went immediately”
UNCLASSIFIED
Misrepresentation by Narrative?
Dec 2012 Teresa May:
“..we asked the Migration Advisory Committee [MAC] to
look at the effects of immigration on jobs, and their
conclusions were stark.”
UNCLASSIFIED
What MAC actually said
"In particular, any link between immigration and
employment of British-born people cannot be
proved to be causal. Rather, it should be thought
of as an association.“
[and not even substantiated by wider research]
UNCLASSIFIED
What did MORI/YouGov
respondents say?
• What percentage of people in Britain today
are immigrants (that is, born outside the UK)?
• What percentage of the UK population is
Muslim?
• What proportion of benefits are claimed
fraudulently?
UNCLASSIFIED
What did MORI/YouGov respondents say:
What percentage of people in Britain today are immigrants (that is, were
born outside the UK)? People said 31%, The actual figure is 13%.
The average response for the percentage of the UK population
that people think are Muslim is a quarter (the actual figure is
5%). 5% of people think over half of the British population is
Muslim.
What proportion of benefits are claimed fraudulently? The
actual answer is about 0.7%, MORI said 24% (similar to the
27% that YouGov got).
‘Evidence based policy’ versus
‘policy based evidence’
A) Get the facts to support your case
B) Try to disprove your case: If it holds you might
begin to have confidence in it
A is much more common than B
B lacks appeal, so sell it as being about ‘What
Works’
UNCLASSIFIED
Rigour
Relevance
What have GES members
done in the past year?
Production of Briefing Material 75.3%
Policy Advice 69.6%
COMMUNICATION
A very different style from academic writing!
Practise writing economics in plain
English
UNCLASSIFIED
Brief for the Development of UK Atomic Bomb
Assessment
Participation
10 per cent
Group Interview
10 per cent
2 hour exam
80 per cent
30 mins < Seen Topic ~ 30 mins Plain English
Minister’s briefing on seen question
1:30mins > unseen short response questions:
Job Getting Tips(Go to the GES EAC Open Day!)
• Fill in all the form, including the bits you don’t think
you fit well e.g. ‘extra-curricula’
• Watch the cut & paste!
At interview:
• It’s OK to be nervous- better than being arrogant
• Sell yourself- but you’re not expected to be the
finished product
• Know the basics well & show you can apply them
• Read the FT – you are an economist!
UNCLASSIFIED
Recent GES Fast Streamers
GES
GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC SERVICE
Making economists better
Making better use of economics
UNCLASSIFIED