Instructor’s Comment: This paper draws on rich information and there are honest attempts to ‘integrate’ vast amount of information from various ‘original’ sources. This project goes byond just a summary of websites. Peru, Colombia, and Chile REGIONAL EQUITY MARKET INTEGRATION REGIONAL INTEGRATION Peru, Colombia, and Chile have begun to implement variable income equity market integration New market to be called the Integrated Latin American Market (Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano)- MILA Integration will take place in two stages, the first of which- termed “Intermediate Routing”- began November 22, 2010 Investors have access to foreign securities through “an automated model of intermediated routers” Phase II of the integration will be completed by December 2011. At this time, individual investors will have direct access to markets in all three countries Does not represent full merging of stock markets, as the exchanges will operate within their respective domestic regulatory frameworks “...negotiations will be conducted under the rules of the market where the securities are listed.” CHARACTERISTICS OF INDIVIDUAL STOCK EXCHANGES Peru- Lima Stock Exchange Total value of stocks traded (2009)- US $4.1 billion Mining sector- copper, gold, silver- represents 56% of all stocks traded Fishmeal Peru’s third largest income source Only 2 of 14 domestically-registered fishmeal companies currently issue stocks on the Lima Stock Exchange This is expected to rise significantly with stock market integration Lima Stock Exchange has 17.5% of all listed companies in Latin America, but only 0.6% of the trade volume CHARACTERISTICS OF INDIVIDUAL STOCK EXCHANGES Chile- Santiago Stock Exchange Total value of stocks traded (2009)- US $34.7 billion Relatively diverse stock offerings Services- including financial services- (32%), retail, mining Main index is IGPA The largest and most globally integrated stock exchange of the three countries CHARACTERISTICS OF INDIVIDUAL STOCK EXCHANGES Colombia- Colombia Stock Exchange Total value of stocks traded (2009)- US $16.5 billion Stocks listed are highly concentrated in energy and manufacturing (representing 78% of market capitalization) Main index is IGBC Largest company is Eco-Petrol, which constitutes over 1/3 of the value of the stocks on the IGBC index Of Latin American countries, it has seen the largest stock market growth over the last ten years (over 900%) COMBINED US $56-57 billion of stocks sold in 2009 (trading volume). In this sense, it will be the third largest stock exchange in Latin America, behind Mexico and Brazil. It is expected to eclipse the Mexican stock exchange as the second largest in terms of total market capitalization in South and Central America, after Brazil’s BM&F Bovespa. Market capitalization estimates of MILA range: Financial Times- US $539 billion Dow Jones article- US $614 billion Bloomberg- US $647 billion *All of these estimates put MILA ahead of Mexico, and far behind Brasil (1.7 trillion) It will be the largest in Latin America in terms of number of companies listed (563). ANTICIPATED EFFECTS We must look at what has happened as a result of similar integrations in the past: 1) EuroNext integration -integration of Amsterdam, Brussels, Paris stock exchanges in 2000 (Lisbon incorporated in 2002) -trading volume increased by about 800% -thus, some expect that the value of stocks traded could increase from $56 billion to US $460 billion as a result of the MILA integration 2) Nasdaq OMX merger (2008) -led to large increases in transaction volume for listed companies ANTICIPATED EFFECTS Simple thought experiment (based on information in Reference (10)): i1 stock issuers and n1 purchasers of stocks exist in Peru - i1*n1 transaction opportunities i2 stock issuers and n2 purchasers of stocks exist in Chile- i2*n2 transaction opportunities i3 stock issuers and n3 purchasers of stocks exist in Colombia- i3*n3 transaction opportunities *Together, there are i1*n1 + i2*n2 + i3*n3 transaction opportunities If the markets are integrated, transaction opportunities increase significantly (i1 + i2+ i3)*(n1+n2+n3 ) opportunities If a value of 10 is assumed for all variables, opportunities increase from 300 in the non-integrated market to 900 in the integrated market BENEFITS OF INTEGRATION Benefits for Investors Diversification of investment portfolios Reduction in transaction costs Benefits for Share Issuers Greater access to capital markets Reduction in financing costs General Benefits Potentially large and significant trading increases will be observed Attraction of foreign investment from abroad to the region BENEFITS FOR INVESTORS Portfolio Diversification An increase in international investment opportunities naturally leads to the potential for diversification The potential for diversification with respect to this particular integration is especially impressive, due to the specialization of Peruvian (mining, fishmeal), Colombian (energy, manufacturing), and Chilean (service, retail, mining) companies in largely different industries. The three exchanges are thus complementary in nature. Reduction in transaction costs Currently exist logistical challenges to investing in neighbouring country Peruvian investors looking to purchase shares in the Colombia Stock Exchange, for example, must go through intermediaries that have relationships with partner brokers in Colombia. Nothing can be done directly. Resultant opportunity and direct financial costs currently discourage international investment. Encourages the entry of small investors, who chose previously not to invest internationally due to large transaction costs (barriers of scale) BENEFITS FOR SHARE ISSUERS Greater access to capital markets Larger pool of potential investors (including small and medium-sized investors who can now afford to invest) Diversification of sources of financing may lead to the spread of companies’ work across international borders (i.e. If Chilean investors gain a large stake in a Colombian energy company, perhaps this opens up the opportunity for expansion in Chile) New, diverse market more attractive to foreign investors from abroad Reduction in financing costs There currently exist logistical and financial costs to listing- issuing shares- in a neighbouring country The integration would eliminate the need for such costs. The issuer would register domestically, then become immediately available to member traders of the MILA exchange. CHALLENGES OF INTEGRATION There is currently no free market for capital flows among Peru, Chile, and Colombia, meaning that tax disincentives for international investment may persist Differences in tax laws among the three countries must be either resolved or more clearly explained to potential investors Must ensure that asset prices remain related to the fundamentals of economy and share issuers i.e. That prospects for high-returns do not result in speculative bubbles Initial period of integration may be most important with respect to this issue Exchanges different in level of sophistication Peru’s exchange has more foreign firms; in Chile, one can short-sell shares (one cannot do so in Peru or Colombia); some differences in use of technology CHALLENGES OF INTEGRATION Lack of a common currency among the three countries Share prices will be quoted in one of three different currencies, depending on the country in which the issuer is listed Large fluctuations in relative exchange rates may lead to excessive speculative activity Transaction costs involved in currency exchange Countries in question have fewer monetary reserves relative to countries such as Brazil Monetary reserves have obvious stabilizing value with respect to exchange rates, if stabilization were to be necessary *Throughout Phase I of the implementation (intermediate routing stage), the specifics of the regulatory framework will emerge. Implementers will attempt to solve technical and tax-related issues among the three markets. NEED FOR EFFECTIVE REGULATION In order to more effectively recruit international capital, international standards of transparency & reporting among listed corporations in the MILA must be established Pownall et. al note that the Euro-Next integration attempted to regulate the new capital market through firms’ voluntary participation in an initiative that saw them recognized for their conformation to standard practice Certain issues had arisen due to a lack of standard practice with respect to the frequency and style of financial reporting, as well as accounting practices, corporate governance, and general transparency Pownall et. al found that the volume of trade of stocks of companies who voluntarily conformed to standard international practices was higher, as was their accounting quality Thus, firms have an economic incentive to conform to standard international practice if such a standard can be effectively established SUMMARY The MILA is poised to become the third powerhouse stock exchange in South and Central America By the time Phase II of the integration is complete, individual investors will have direct access to markets in all three countries. Benefits for investors include portfolio diversification & a reduction of transaction costs, while stock issuers benefit primarily from greater access to capital markets. Benefits to diversification have particularly strong potential due to the complementary nature of the three exchanges. Large increases in the volume of trading can be expected immediately as new buyers and sellers interact with one another in a diverse market. Nonetheless, there are challenges to the integration process. These include: a lack of free flow of capital among the three countries, jurisdiction-related differences among the domestic markets, technical issues in the sophistication level of the exchanges, and the lack of a single currency in which to carry out transactions. Finally, standard practices with respect to transparency need to be established before the implementation of Phase II of the integration, scheduled for the end of December 2011, can proceed. Firms have an economic incentive to conform to standard international practice. REFERENCES (1) Emery, Alex. “Andes Stock Market Integration to Spur Peru Fishing IPOs, Bernales Says.” October 18, 2010. Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/201010-18/andes-stock-market- integration-to-spur-peru-fishing-ipos-bernalessays.html. (2) Esposito, Anthony. November 11, 2010. “Merged Chile, Peru, Colombia Bourse Create Virtuous Cycle - Santiago Bourse CEO.” Dow Jones Newswires. http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101111-713954.html. (3) Jordan, Levi. September 17, 2010. “Stock Market Integration: Chile, Colombia, and Peru.” Americas Society. http://www.as-coa.org/article.php?id=2670. To REFERENCES (4) Mapstone, Naomi. November 2, 2010. “Latin America: Andean trio plan market alliance.” Financial Times. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bdafd2fa-e607-11df-9cdd00144feabdc0,dwp_uuid=f81d488c-e620-11df-9cdd00144feabdc0.html#axzz17PHKbyKi. (5) Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano. Official Website. http://mercadointegrado.com. (6) Narayanan, Pratish. December 1, 2010. Andean Exchanges’ Integration to Be Completed by End of 2011. Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=avF_rd y_y4EQ. REFERENCES (7) Pownall, Grace, Maria Vulcheva, and Xue Wang. 2010. “The Effects of the Integration of the Euronext Stock Market on Financial Reporting Quality and Liquidity of Listed Companies.”Goizueta Business School, Emory University. 1-56. http://acctwkshop.cox.smu.edu/acctwkshop/Euronext%20I_%209_23.pdf. (8) Sanabria, Andrés Felipe. “ El camino de la integración bursátil.” Corficolombiana, Investigaciones Económicas. http://www.bnamericas.com/cgibin/getresearch?report=134413.pdf&documento=1016899&idioma= E&login=. REFERENCES (9) Stone, Hannah. January 5, 2010. “Colombia's stock exchange leads Latin America in growth.” Colombia Reports. http://colombiareports.com/colombia-news/economy/7543-colombiasstock-exchange-has-largest-growth-in-latin-america.html. (10) Universia Knowledge @ Wharton. November 17, 2010. “The Benefits of MILA: Three Latin American Stock Exchanges Unite.” Wharton, the University of Pennsylvania. http://www.wharton.universia.net/index.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=1979 &language=english. (11) Wahba, Phil. May 8, 2008.“Nasdaq OMX profit jumps as merger benefits kick in.” Reuters. http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKN0729909220080508.