Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: Key Current IT Themes Leonardo Leiderman Tel-Aviv University E-mail:lleiderman@leoleiderman.com OECD and CCBS/Bank of England Conference, Paris, Feb. 28, 2007 1 Current Global Conditions Provide Strong Support for IT in Emerging Markets Globalization has resulted in lower inflation rates World interest rates have remained low Rapid growth and reforms have improved EM’s fiscal stance EM external accounts have improved Capital mobility has contributed to monetary/fiscal policy discipline A diminishing role of political uncertainties for market movements? 2 A Marked Decline in EM Budget Deficits (% of GDP) 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1999 2007 Source: WEO 9/2006, IMF. The figures correspond to the central government budget deficit of “other emerging market and developing countries.” The figure for 2007 is an IMF forecast.. 3 Rapid GDP Growth Helped Reduce Public Debt to GDP Ratios (% of GDP change from end 2001 to end 2005) 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Total change Primary balance GDP growth Other Source: WEO 9/2006, IMF. “Other” includes: exchange rate and interest rate effects, the stock-flow adjustment and statistical discrepancy 4 Changes in Global Risk Aversion Have Been Key for EEM Volatility in 2006 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 30/12/2005 30/06/2006 Note: index for the EEM ETF (end of 2005=100). 30/12/2006 5 Currency depreciation 10.5.06-22.6.06 The Current Account/Monetary Policy Link: Larger Currency Depreciation Under Weaker External Accounts (Mid ’06 Episode of Global Risk Aversion) 25% TUR 20% 15% 10% 5% HUN PLN ROM BRL CZE THA 0% -5% -10% -5% 0% ARG ISR 5% Current account/GDP RUS 10% 15% 6 The Main Risk Ahead Slower economic growth and weaker fundamentals could make monetary policy in emerging-market economies more vulnerable to adverse shocks. 7 An Illustration of Current IT Themes Based on Israel’s Experience 8 Inflation Volatility has Resulted in Deviations from IT… 7% 5% 3% 1% -1% -3% 1.00 0 1.01 CPI YoY 1.02 1.03 1.04 Official inflation targets 1.05 1.06 1.07 9 …Yet Inflation Expectations Have Remained Within Targets 7% 5% 3% 1% -1% -3% 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 0 CPI YoY Official inflation targets 12-month break-even inflation 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 10 Inflation Expectations Appear Now Less Adaptive than in the Past 11% 9% 7% 5% 3% 1% -1% -3% -5% 1.97 1.98 1.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 0 CPI YoY Official inflation targets 12-month break-even inflation 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 11 Although the Pass-through has Diminished, The Nominal Exchange Rate Still has a Dominant Role in the Transmission Mechanism 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 1.00 1.01 CPI YoY 1.02 1.03 1.04 $/NIS - YoY 1.05 1.06 12 ILS Recent Strength Resulted from Improved Current Account Performance… (Israel’s current account surplus) $ millions % of GDP 5.2% 5,000 5% 2.6% 2.9% 3,000 1.4% 1,000 3% 1% -0.6% -1,000 -1.2% -3.2% -3,000 -1.6% -1.1% -1% -1.3% -5,000 -3% -5% -5.1% -5.2% -7% 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 -7,000 13 …as well as from USD weakness USD/ILS USD/EUR 4.8 0.86 4.7 0.84 4.6 0.82 4.5 4.4 0.80 4.3 0.78 4.2 0.76 4.1 0.74 4.0 3.9 0.72 3.8 0.70 02/01/2006 27/03/2006 19/06/2006 11/09/2006 04/12/2006 14 Should the IT Rely on Core Inflation? 5% 3% 1% -1% -3% 1.04 1.05 CPI Core inflation (excl. housing and energy) 3 קו 4 קו 1.06 15 Entering New Territory for Monetary Policy: The BoI Rate is Lower than the FedFunds Rate… 10% 9% 8% 7% BoI 6% 5% 4% 3% Fed 2% 1% 0% 1.02 1.03 1.04 Bank of Israel and Federal Reserve policy rates. 1.05 1.06 1.07 16 10% …Yet Ex-Ante Real Interest Rates Remain Reasonable BoI interest rate 12 months break-even inflation Real - ex-ante interest rate 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2002 2003 Source: Bank of Israel. 2004 2005 2006 2007 17 Looking Back at the 2002 Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mistake Inflation target: 2-3% Actual inflation: 6.5% 18 Policy Rate: A Surprise Move to Easy Money in 12.2001 (central bank interest rates) 12% Expected Real Nominal 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2000.01 2001.01 2002.01 2003.01 2004.01 2005.01 2006.01 2007.01 19 The Budget Deficit in 2002: Revising the Target Frequently (Ratios of Budget Deficit to GDP) 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Target 1 4.2001 Target 2 12.2001 Target 3 5.2002 Actual 20 Fiscal and Monetary Expansion Resulted in Rapid ILS Depreciation Against the USD USD/ILS 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 1/1/01 1/7/01 1/1/02 1/7/02 1/1/03 1/7/03 21 Concluding Remarks The need for flexibility in implementing IT in emerging-market economies… …yet credibility is especially needed in a ‘flexible’ IT regime The need for defining the IT horizon “over the medium term” Less benign global conditions and weaker fundamentals could pose more difficult tradeoffs for EM monetary policies ahead 22