Funding transport investments: transport pricing versus general funds Stef Proost Revenu D2 –Task 2.2 June 9 - 2004 Objectives • Look for guidelines in welfare theory on – How to fund transport investments in a closed economy: • Transport fees • General tax revenues: what type of tax revenues – Multi-government issues – How to translate these guidelines into transport models • What can political economy teach us on the difference between – Welfare recommendations (benevolent social planner) – More realistic institutions? (political mechanisms, pressure groups, bureaucrats) Approach taken for welfare recommendations • Small theoretical model • Examine the effect of a small transport investment on welfare as a function of the way it is funded – Model with N households that differ in the productivity of their labour supply ei – Welfare function that integrates equity and efficiency • Same model can be used to assess any balanced budget change in taxes Funding an investment via a head tax 1 dW equity weight i pass transport benefit i freight transport benefit i NRCG i G rental cost infrast- induced transport tax rev NRCG - induced labour tax rev NRCG G 1 R 1 G Funding an investment via a labour tax dW equity weight i pass transport benefit i freight transport benefit i NRC L i N i e L * i i rental cost infrast- induced transport tax rev NRC - induced labour tax revenue NRC L i N L L ei Li i L L 1 ei Li i 1 ( ei Li ) i L Funding an investment via a head tax or labour tax • Transport models give us: – benefits, transport revenues feedback – Missing: labour tax feedback of transport improvements (mainly commuting related projects) • General economic models give us: • Welfare weights • Covariance between gross labour supply and welfare weights • Marginal cost of funds (Kleven & Kleiner, include labour participation decision) – Belgium: head tax: 1.1 and labour tax 2.5 – UK: head tax 1.1 and labour tax 1.4 Funding an investment via a passenger tax 1 dW equity weight i pass transport benefit i freight transport benefit i NRCT i N i * Ti rental cost capacity- induced transport tax revenue NRC - induced labour tax revenue NRC L i N T T Ti i T 1 1 ( Ti ) T T i i i T Funding an investment via a passenger tax 2 • Implication for the use of models: – Transport model can in principle pick up most of the effects of a budget balanced investment – The only exceptions are the labour market effects that are missing in the transport model – a default procedure is to extrapolate values from the marginal cost of funds of a proportional labour tax L L L and L T Multi government issues • How can efficient pricing and investment by local and regional governments be organized? • What are the prescriptions to handle spillovers in benefits (cross border traffic and transit traffic)? • Horizontal and vertical tax competition issues? Is federal matching of regional investment needed, and how should the matching schemes be designed? Many different types of problems, no unique solution Federal govt Vertical competition Local govt Local govt Horizontal competition Local govt ONE RESULT: Pricing at lowest level plus some competition (2 or more) helps for horizontal parallel competition PARALLEL links: transit traffic can pass via regions A OR B that both tax traffic Country C Origin of transit Country A Country D Destination Of transit Country B SERIAL LINKS : transit traffic passes via regions A AND B – this chain of monopolies generates inefficient pricing Country A origin Country B destination The Political economy approach 1 • What can political economy teach us on the difference between – Welfare recommendations (benevolent social planner) – More realistic institutions? (political mechanisms, pressure groups, bureaucrats) • We look for insights using 2 models: – Static Lobbying model – Dynamic political model The Political economy approach: the lobbying model 1 • Lobbying model of Dixit et al (1997) is a common agency model where many lobbying groups try to bribe a policy maker that is influenced by a political process • Main result is that outcome of lobbying game is maximum of weighed sum of utility of voters and of lobbyists: Wlobbying game wU i voters i lobbyists wU l l The Political economy approach: the lobbying model 2 • This model generates policies that are not too inefficient in the sense that Pareto-optimality is desirable • As regards road pricing, it will be favoured if the lobby groups have a disproportionate share in the revenues • Specific transport investments that are not priced will always by wanted by the transport users as long as they are paid by general taxes The Political economy approach: the dynamic political model 1 • Earmarking model inspired by Brett & Keen (2001) • identical individuals • 2 types of politicians: – the good ones (max utility of voters) – the bad ones (max tax revenue and waste it) • Simple transport problem: choose a road toll for an infrastructure you can not extend – Good policy: Pigouvian tax recycled as lower labour tax – Bad policy: Higher tax and waste the money The Political economy approach: the dynamic political model 2 • Politicians can commit to earmark the revenues to reduce existing taxes – but this has some efficiency loss (a share A is lost) • Voters do not know whether politicians are good or bad before the elections, they only know that a share B of them are bad • Insights: – Voters will prefer a toll < Pigouvian toll as there is a risk that the revenues are wasted – No politician will propose a tax higher than the Pigouvian tax as he reveals then to be a bad politician – Good politicians will propose earmarking if A < F(B) – If earmarking is proposed, the toll that is chosen will be lower than the Pigouvian toll but higher than the toll chosen if no earmarking is possible The Political economy approach: the dynamic political model 3 • This framework helps us explaining why earmarking exists despite its inherent inefficiency • Good politicians propose taxes below the Pigouvian level for two types of reasons. – minimise the losses in case a bad politician wins the election – in the case of earmarking, the tax has to be lower because the revenues of the tax are suboptimally used. The Political economy approach: the dynamic political model 4 • When the extent of the expected externality problems is uncertain, earmarking can also help to signal the good politicians. – Good politicians will propose earmarking when the externality tax that is needed is high and may not propose earmarking when the externality tax is low – Bad politicians will try to propose a low tax for high as well as for low external costs and will never propose earmarking Some conclusions • Integration of equity and efficiency considerations in transport pricing and in-vestment studies is possible combining – Transport models – More general economic models • Multi-government problems: – No unique solution – Pricing helps for horizontal tax competition but may not be equitable – Vertical tax externalities underresearched • Political economy models can help to explain – The excess demand for specific transport investments – Earmarking From static to dynamic model • Static model without tax on capital • Extension to dynamic model (no equity –Liu 2003) with vector (dimension 1, …., T) of Inv, Benefits, Revenues (Gov) funded by labour tax increase in presence of capital tax I R B (1 r n ) t MCF t (1 rg ) where rn rg (1 K ) MCF wt Lt (1 rn ) Rt t (1 r ) g L t t 0