Critical metals and minerals:
An Australian perspective
Dr Roger Skirrow
Resources Division, Geoscience Australia
Four Mile uranium deposit, SA
Your mobile phone contains
over 50 elements*
Approximately 1.5 billion mobile phones are
sold each year, consuming (in value order):
• Gold (~51 tonnes, t)
• Palladium (~22.5 t)
• Copper (~4,000 t)
• Silver (~525 t)
• Platinum (~510 kg)
BUT SOME OF THESE
METALS AND SEMI-METALS
ARE SUBJECT TO HIGH RISK
OF SUPPLY
Also requiring . . .
• Rare-earth elements (REE)
• Tantalum
• Indium
• Tin
• Titanium
• Lithium
• Gallium
• Cobalt
* If you have a recent-model smartphone
(http://news.cnet.com/2300-1041_3-6244920-16.html)
Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015
Critical commodities – what are they?
High
criticality Rhodium
4
(high)
Manganese
Indium
Niobium
Economic
impact of
supply
restriction
3
Platinum
Rare-earth
elements
Copper
(noncritical)
Tantalum
Palladium
Vanadium
Titanium
2
1 (low)
• Geopolitical instability
US National
Academy of
Sciences (2008)
Supply risk
Supply risk factors:
• Lack of substitution or recycling
Low
criticality
2
(‘Strategic commodities’ are those
important for military purposes)
• Geological scarcity
Gallium
Lithium
1 (low)
Definition: metals, non-metals and
minerals that perform an essential
economic function but are subject
to a high risk of supply.
3
4
(high)
• Concentration of production and/or
processing in particular countries
or companies
• Lack of large-scale markets
• Production only as a by-product
• Limited methods of recovery
Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015
Uses of critical commodities
Industry / usage
Steel-making and super-alloys
Light alloys
Critical metals and minerals
(Fe-based)
(e.g. in cars, aircraft; Al-based)
Cr, V, Ni, Mo, Co, Re, Nb
Ti, Sc
Industrial processing (catalysts etc)
PGE, REE, Li, Ti, Zr, He, Sb
Electronics & high-tech
In, REE, PGE, Li, Ga, Ta, Nb
Low-emissions energy production
REE, In, Sb, Ga
Low-emissions energy usage (e.g. batteries) REE, PGE, Li, Ni, Co, graphite
Water & food security
Catalytic converters in cars:
platinum & palladium (PGE)
Industrial catalysts:
woven thread of platinum
PGE, Cr, Ti, potash, phosphate
Magnets in turbines:
REE (e.g. neodymium)
Super-alloys: rhenium
in jet engine turbines
High-efficiency photovoltaic: Te, In, Ga, Cd
Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015
Demand: Leading importers of critical commodities
Source: UNComtrade, 2012
Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015
Supply: Leading producers of critical commodities
Source: BGS World Mineral Statistics
Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015
Case 1: platinum-group elements (PGE)
(platinum, palladium, rhodium, osmium, iridium, ruthenium)
•
•
•
•
•
$25 billion in import value (2012)*
Supply dominated by 2 countries
South African supply at risk
Australia has few known resources
What is potential?
*Import value for top 5 countries in 2012: ~$25 billion USD (UNComtrade, Dec 2012)
Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015
Case 2: rare-earth elements (REE)
(the REE are NOT RARE! Family of 17 metals including 15 lanthanides, scandium and yttrium)
Demand 2014
Supply 2014
(source: Roskill)
(Source: Roskill)
Neodymium production, and forecast supply and demand
historical data
future estimates
batteries
in electric
vehicles
year
Sources: past production from USGS (2013); supply forecasts from Roskill, Chegwinden & Kingsnorth (2010) and Kara et al. (2010)
Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015
Rare-earth element
resources
Australia holds 2.2% of world’s REE
economic resources but some of world’s
largest sub-economic resources
(Geoscience Australia, Dec 2013)
Critical commodities – Australia’s opportunities
to supply global demand
• Australia is a relatively small consumer of CCs, mostly in imported
goods
• Potash and phosphate (as in ‘NPK’) are some of the few critical to
Australian industries (agriculture)
• However, a review by Geoscience Australia (2013)
highlighted Australia’s resources of, and potential for,
critical commodities
• These represent opportunities to supply critical
commodities to Australia’s trading partners
• Also opportunities for value-adding (e.g., processing,
manufacturing)
many
Geoscience Australia’s assessment
of critical commodities
•
34 metal, non-metal and mineral
commodities assessed
•
Level of criticality determined by ranking
commodities in ‘risk lists’ of the UK, EU,
USA, Republic of Korea and Japan
Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015
Geoscience Australia’s assessment
of critical commodities
(very high)
•
34 metal, non-metal and mineral
commodities assessed
•
Level of criticality determined by ranking
commodities in ‘risk lists’ of the UK, EU,
USA, Republic of Korea and Japan
•
Categories of resource potential indicate
level of opportunity for Australian mineral
resource industries
•
Based on known resources and geological
favourability
Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015
Geoscience Australia’s assessment
of critical commodities
(high)
•
34 metal, non-metal and mineral
commodities assessed
•
Level of criticality determined by ranking
commodities in ‘risk lists’ of the UK, EU,
USA, Republic of Korea and Japan
•
Categories of resource potential indicate
level of opportunity for Australian mineral
resource industries
•
Based on known resources and geological
favourability
Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015
Geoscience Australia’s assessment
of critical commodities
(moderate)
•
•
•
•
•
•
34 metal, non-metal and mineral
commodities assessed by Geoscience
Australia
Level of criticality determined by ranking
Level of criticality
commodities
in ‘risk
is based
lists’ ofon
theUK,
UK,EU,
EU,US,
Republic
USA,
Republic
of Korea
of Korea
and Japan
and Japan
stated
priorities, and reflects risk of supply and
Categories
of resourceofpotential
indicate
economic importance
commodity
level of opportunity for Australian mineral
Categories
resource
industries
of resource potential indicate
level
ofon
opportunity
for Australian
mineral
Based
known resources
and geological
resource
industries
favourability
Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015
Geoscience Australia’s assessment
of critical commodities
•
•
•
•
•
•
34 metal, non-metal and mineral
commodities assessed by Geoscience
Australia
Level of criticality determined by ranking
Level of criticality
commodities
in ‘risk
is based
lists’ ofon
theUK,
UK,EU,
EU,US,
Republic
USA,
Republic
of Korea
of Korea
and Japan
and Japan
stated
priorities, and reflects risk of supply and
Categories
of resourceofpotential
indicate
economic importance
commodity
level of opportunity for Australian mineral
Categories
resource
industries
of resource potential indicate
level
ofon
opportunity
for Australian
mineral
Based
known resources
and geological
resource
industries
favourability
Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015
Australia’s inventory of critical and other elements
Elements concentrated in ore deposits
derived from Earth’s mantle
Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015
Australia’s potential for mantlederived deposits of Ni, Cu, PGE, Cr, V
• Study of Ni-Cu-PGE
potential by Geoscience
Australia just completed;
1st of its kind for the nation
• Identified areas of known
deposits
• Also predicts many other
areas with potential for NiCu-PGE deposits
• Information for mineral
exploration companies to
reduce their risk in
exploration targeting
Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015
Australia’s potential for critical commodities:
tungsten, tin, lithium, REE
related to granites
Tungsten-tin
province
Tantalumtin-lithium
provinces
• Also zirconium, niobium,
tantalum, beryllium
• Geological potential
currently being
investigated by
Geoscience Australia
• Tungsten and lithium:
Australia has 11% of
world’s resources of each
Tin-tungsten
provinces
Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015
Geoscience Australia delivers national datasets to
support exploration
1:1m Surface Geology
Gravity
Radiometrics
Magnetics
Data from Geoscience Australia and
State/NT Geological Surveys
Critical metals and minerals - Resources & Energy Workshop 2015
Critical Commodities – An Australian perspective
• Global demand high & rising,
particularly in high-tech
sectors
• Australia has major
resources and potential
• Opportunity for Australia
• Global supply subject to risks
to provide assured
supply of critical
commodities