Tomorrow’s Climate Today’s
Challenge
Climate Change & Local Energy Solutions
a brief introduction
Ben Simpson – Greenpeace & Community Energy Plus
ben@cep.org.uk – 01209 614973
Tomorrow’s Climate…
Predictions for a warming world
Dangerous climate change... It's important not to be alarmist but it is
very important to be alarmed.
(David Miliband, Defra, 2006)
Climate change: the greatest challenge to face man
(Duke of Cornwall/Prince of Wales, BBC interview, October 2005)
We live not, in reality, on the summit of a solid earth but at the
bottom of an ocean of air…. (Thales of Miletus (c.625 - 545 BC))
We're putting 70 million tonnes of pollution into the atmosphere every
day, trapping an enormous amount of extra heat from the sun inside the earth's
atmosphere. It's threatening to push the planet past a tipping point beyond
which climate change would be difficult to stop.
(Al Gore, 45th Vice President of the United States (September 2006)
A blanket of gases traps the
sun’s heat in… causing
Global Warming
Basically:
More GHG’s in the
atmosphere = warmer world
& climate extremes
Our new technologies, combined with our numbers, have made us
collectively, a force of nature.
(Al Gore, 45th Vice President of the United States, 'An Inconvenient
Truth' (2006))
So what have we caused?
There is more CO2 in the atmosphere now than there has been in the last
650,000 years… (382ppm CO2/430ppm CO2e rising at 2ppm+ p.a.)
11 out of the last 12 years have been the hottest years in recorded history…
The clearest evidence that we are living beyond environmental means is the
threat of dangerous climate change. The scale of this threat, to human
life and to the natural resources and assets on which it depends, for
everything from oxygen and clean water to healthy soils and flood
defence, means that this simply must be our top priority
(David Miliband, Secretary of State for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs)
Why?
In 2003 35,000 people died across Europe as the direct result of the
heatwave that summer…
By 2080 extreme summers like the 2003 heatwave will be common place…
A threat to our food and water supplies
The sea level in SW UK is projected to rise by 0.8m by 2080…
Globally about 100 million people live less than 1m above sea level…
The vast majority of glaciers have been retreating and thinning over the
past 30 years…
Chinese Meteorological Administration predicts that China’s northwestern
mountains will lose over a quarter of their current glacier coverage by
2050
These glaciers supply 15-20% of the water to over 20 million people in
the Xinjiang and Qinghai Provinces alone…
In India 500 million people rely on the Indus and Ganges, which are
largely feed by glacial meltwater…
What do we know about
future climate change?
IPCC 4th Assessment Report (4AR)
predicts:
global average temperatures to rise by
1.8°C - 4°C (1.1°C - 6.4°C)
this Century
Doesn’t sound much…
but what do the numbers mean for our planet?
1°C World
Kilimanjaro - Africa’s shining mountain?
Glacial retreat in 6 years…
The parched Amazon
– Amazonian drought
2005
2°C World
Ocean Warming, Rise
& Acidification
Threatened mass
extinction for 20% to
30% of the world's
species
Reduced Arctic sea-ice:
polar bears become extinct
Triggers the end of the Coral reef
eco-system (full die-off likely under
3°C world)…
Worsening
drought brings
water shortages
Affecting up to 2
billion people facing
by 2050
Runaway Global Warming?
Beyond 2°C…
Threshold for biological carbon cycle feedback…
i.e. plant life & soils which have previously been acting as major carbon sinks…
Start releasing their vast stores of CO2
Triggered (probability 78-98%)
if Global Emissions Peak exceeds
400-450ppm CO2/450-550ppm CO2e
Worse cyclone threat…
3°C World
Katrina… Warmer oceans means… Stronger hurricanes/cyclones… with greater
reach Europe and South America become vulnerable
More frequent/permanent El Nino brings…
Drought to Australia, Indonesia & Amazonia
& Flooding & failed fisheries to SW of the Americas
3°C Warming
Full Amazon collapse
From Rainforest…
To Savannah & burn off
To Desert
Beyond 3°C…
Threshold for Siberian methane
feedback…
i.e. Methane released from permafrost as a result of irreversible thaw
Triggered (probability 69-94%)
if Global Emissions Peak exceeds
450-550ppm CO2/550-650ppm CO2e
4°C World
Desertification of
N. Africa & Mediterranean Europe
Methane release from
Siberian Permafrost accelerates
Beyond 4°C…
Threshold for oceanic methane release
feedback…
i.e. Methane released from the sub-oceanic Methane Hydrate stores
due to temperature & pressure changes
Triggered (probability 58-82%) under
Business As Usual
Global atmospheric concentrations =
650ppm CO2+ /650-750ppm CO2e
5°C World
Sub-oceanic Methane Hydrate releases
•The remaining ice sheets are eventually
eliminated from both poles.
•Rainforests have burned up and disappeared.
•Rising sea levels have inundated coastal
cities and are beginning to penetrate far inland
into continental interiors.
•Humans are herded into shrinking zones of
habitability by twin crises of drought and flood.
•Inland areas see temperatures 10 or more
degrees higher than now.
(Mark Lynas, Author Six Degrees, 2007)
Impacts on Cornwall?

Impacts…We don’t know enough, particularly concerning the social and
economic implications… More research is urgently required…

What we do know
 Warmer dryer summers &
 Milder wetter winters
Source SWCCIP ‘Warming to the Idea’ 2003
Serious implications for:
 Agriculture & horticulture
 Biodiversity
 Coastal areas
 Sea Fisheries
 River Flooding & drainage
 Built environment
 Health
 Heritage
 Transport infrastructure
Opportunities in:
 Environmental/low carbon technology industries
 Sustainable communities/lifestyles
 Tourism
Today’s Challenge!
what can be done…
How?
1. Adaptation
2. Mitigation
Where do we start?
Education, education, education…
Education & capacity building must come first!
We need a new environmental consciousness on a global
basis. To do this, we need to educate people…
(Mikhail Gorbachev)
We need to develop the new green industrial revolution that
develops the new technologies that can confront and overcome the
challenge of climate change; and that above all can show us not that
we can avoid changing our behaviour but we can change it in a
way that is environmentally sustainable…
(Tony Blair, 2004)
Key abatement strategies
Economic measures required to address climate change:



Putting a realistic price on carbon
Supporting low carbon technologies
Removing barriers to uptake of sustainable energy
Planning for energy descent will require main-streaming of:



Demand reduction & energy efficiency programmes
Structural change – Sustainable Resilience (new localism)
Low carbon technologies
Reducing your Carbon Footprint
Sustainable Energy
at home and in your community
Your Basic Carbon Footprint
Measures your:
Household emissions
 Workplace emissions
 Transport emissions
 Consumption emissions

Today we’ll briefly deal with one of the primary ways
of reducing the first 2 categories…
So what’s wrong with our current energy system?
It’s massively inefficient… such that 68% of primary energy is wasted… &
this leads to unnecessary CO2 emissions…
What are the experts saying about this?
In the early years of the new millennium, the
electricity system, the bloodstream of industrial
society, is going to change almost beyond recognition.
It will have to.
(Walt Patterson - Royal Institute of International Affairs, UK)
The current power infrastructure is as compatible with
the future as horse trails were to automobiles
(Kurt Yeager - President, Electric Power Research Institute)
So what’s the alternative? – Decentralised Energy!
Localisation of energy generation… power to the people… from the people
What does this look like: http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/blog/climate/decentralised-energy-w
So what does Sustainable Energy really mean?

Energy Conservation: Conserving energy by
being aware of you energy use – frugality

Energy Efficiency: Consuming the energy that
you do use in the most efficient manner

Renewable/Low-Carbon Energy Sources:
Capturing and using natural, renewable energy
sources… whilst minimising the GHG emissions
associated with the use of fossil energies.
What do I mean by Energy Conservation?

Turning your thermostat down by 1ºC could cut your heating bills by up to
10 per cent and save you around £40 per year.

Is your water too hot? Your cylinder thermostat shouldn't need to be set
higher than 60ºC/140ºF.

Close your curtains at dusk to stop heat escaping through the windows.

Always turn off the lights when you leave a room.

Don't leave appliances on standby and remember not to leave appliances
on charge unnecessarily.

If you're not filling up the washing machine, tumble dryer or dishwasher, use
the half-load or economy programme.

Only boil as much water as you need (but remember to cover the
elements if you're using an electric kettle).

A dripping hot water tap wastes energy and in one week wastes enough hot
water to fill half a bath, so fix leaking taps and make sure they're fully
turned off!
What do you mean by Energy Efficiency?
Roof 25%
1. Minimizing Heat Loss

Fabric Heat Loss
Doors &
windows 15%
Walls 35%
Floor 10%
Roof 90%
Ventilation
Poorly
Windows
33%
Doors 100%
Floor 50%
Walls 66%
Heat Loss
fitted Pipe work and Wiring
Gaps around Doors, Letterboxes and Keyholes
Gaps around Windows
Gaps between Floorboards
Unused Chimneys
Gaps around the Loft Hatch
Cracks in Building Structure
2. Using the most Energy Efficient space and water
heating equipment…
The efficiency of your heating
system depends on:
Choosing the right fuel based on
lifestyle/demand, availability, cost,
and GHG emissions
Using the most efficient (i.e. A rated)
appliances
Using the controls effectively, i.e.
timers & zoning
Making sure heat loss is kept to a
minimum
Choosing a your fuel
3. Using Energy Efficient Lighting
Standard bulbs can be replaced with Compact Florescent Lamps
Spot bulbs can be replaced by either CFLs or LEDS
Such bulbs generally cut your energy consumption between 4X and 20X
Campaign to band incandescent bulbs see:
http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendid=175871816
4. Using Energy Efficient appliances
Most appliances by law have to be energy rated
Renewables for you home & community
Micro-generation and it is a key part of the decentralised energy
future…
Technologies used include:
Electricity generation
Micro-wind (between 1KW – 20KW peak)
Solar Photo-Voltaic
Micro-hydro (very few locations suitable)
CHP
Heat generation
Solar Thermal
Heat pumps (ground source, air source & water source)
CHP/Biomass
Micro-Wind
Horizontal axis:
Buildings integrated:
Airdolphin (1KW peak)
Freestanding:
Proven (2.5KW>15KW)
Vertical axis (VAWT)
Quiet Revolution 5 (6KW)
Solar Photo-Voltaics
Retro-fit PV panels – Wellbeing Centre
Integrated PV slates/tiles - Carnyorth
Solar Thermal/Water Heating
Flat plate panels:
Retro-fit
Integrated tiles
Solar-hot water system diagram
Evacuated tubes panels
Ground Source Heat pumps:
Horizontal Axis
Vertical axis
Renewable Energy Tariffs: www.cornwall-switch.org
0800 10 88 333
Cornwall Energy Efficiency Advice Centre:
0800 512 012
Together we are the solution…
Climate change will not be effectively managed until
individuals and communities recognise that their
behaviour can make a difference…
(The Royal Society, Climate Change: what we know and what
we need to know (2002))
Thankfully this is starting to happen…
Transition Culture Model (Totnes – www.transitionculture.org)
Transition Falmouth (www.transitionfalmouth.org.uk)
Transition Penwith (www.transitionpenwith.com)
Climate Friendly Village Model (Ashton Hayes www.goingcarbonneutral.co.uk)
St Endellion Climate Friendly Parish (www.stendellion.com)
The time for action is now…
The costs of stabilising the climate are significant but
manageable; delay would be dangerous and much more
costly…
(Sir Nicholas Stern ‘The Stern Review’ 2006)
Community Energy Projects
A recognised role for the community:
Energy White Paper (May 2007) states:
259 Community level organisations have the potential to play an
important role in communicating climate change and in helping their
communities make real and lasting changes to their day-to-day lives.
… Initial findings by the Centre for Sustainable Energy and Community
Development Exchange imply that effective community initiatives are likely
to be a necessary component of a coherent national approach to tackling
climate change.
Available support:
Community Engagement
Community Energy Plus – Community Team
EST – Community Action for Energy Network:
http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/cafe/
Energy4all - www.energy4all.co.uk
Community Development
Kabin – Cornwall Social Enterprise/Cooperative Development Agency
(Paul Martin – 01872 262259)
Community Energy Models
Energy4All:
Community Ownership of Energy Generation

Community-owned green energy is the corner stone of European renewable
expertise and has worked successfully in the UK since 1996 through the
award-winning Baywind Co-op.

Energy4All owned by the co-operatives they assist; Baywind Energy Cooperative Ltd, Westmill Wind Farm Co-operative Ltd, Boyndie Wind Farm
Co-operative Ltd and Fenland Green Power Co-operative Ltd.

Energy4All offers a combination of industry experience, community
involvement, and business acumen providing a package of sector, admin,
and financial services to Co-ops in return for an annual fee.
www.energy4all.co.uk
Community Energy Projects in Cornwall

Community Assisted Energy Efficiency Drives
Boscastle Candle Mass CFL give away
(planned) St Endellion Brownies Bulb Exchange

Renewables on Community Buildings
CEP Community Team Projects:
Centre of Pendeen, Carnyorth Education Centre,
Wellbeing Centre:
Type of installations: approx 5kW Solar PV
Annual Generation: 7-8 MWh
Annual CO2 saving: 3-3.5 tonnes
Household’s equivalent: 2
http://www.csep.co.uk/page109g.html

Community Renewables Generation
South Wheatley Environmental Trust:
Type of installation: 15kW Wind Turbine
Annual Generation: 35 MWh
Annual CO2 saving:15 tonnes
Household’s equivalent: 9
http://www.good-energy.co.uk/gyo_smart_case_swheatley
Future Community Energy Projects in Cornwall
Transition Penwith Energy Group
Are looking at:
• Energy Trails in Penwith
• Practical web-based ‘how to guides’ of renewable energy installations
• Baseline energy use in Penwith
• Investigate the concept of open space
• Evening class in energy
• Potential for community owned renewables generation (Nuon/Energy4All)
St Endellion Climate Friendly Parish
Are looking into developing a community energy action plan that involves
• Assessing baseline energy consumption
• Providing ‘energy trackers’ to residents to increase energy awareness
• Community supported energy efficiency drives (bulbs & insulation)
• A community sustainable energy offset scheme - community buildings
• Supporting local businesses to audit and reduce their energy consumption
(in conjunction with CoaST & Envision)
CEP/CSEP & Kabin are looking into support for community led-ESCOs:
Including reusing commerical scale wind turbines for small communities and an
ESCO for CPR under the Aspire Project.
Human history is a race between education and catastrophe… (H G Wells)
Unless we change direction, we are likely to end up where we are going…
(Chinese proverb)
Thank you for listening
ben@cep.org.uk – 01209 614973