Marginal Analysis for Optimal Decision Making (lecture 3)

Chapter 3: Marginal Analysis for Optimal Decision

McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2011 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Locating a shopping mall in a coastal area

•Villages are located East to West along the coast (Ocean to the North)

•Problem for the developer is to locate the mall at a place which minimizes total travel miles (TTM).

10

Number of Customers per Week (Thousands)

10 10 5 20 10

West

15

A B x

C D E F G

3.0

3.5

2.0

2.5

4.5

2.0

Distance between Towns (Miles)

4.5

15

East

H

3-2

Minimizing TTM by enumeration

•The developer selects one site at a time, computes the

TTM, and selects the site with the lowest TTM.

•The TTM is found by multiplying the distance to the mall by the number of trips for each town (beginning with town A and ending with town H).

•For example, the TTM for site X (a mile west of town

C) is calculated as follow:

(5.5)(15) + (2.5)(10) + (1.0)(10) + (3.0)(10) + (5.5)(5) +

(10.0)(20) + (12.0)(10) + (16.5)(15) = 742.5

3-3

Marginal analysis is more effective

Enumeration takes lots of computation. We can find the optimal location for the mall

easier using marginal analysis —

that is, by assessing whether small changes at the margin will improve the objective (reduce

TTM, in other words).

3-4

Illustrating the power of marginal analysis

1. Let’s arbitrarily select a location—say, point X

. We know that TTM at point X is equal to 742.5—but we don’t need to compute TTM first.

2. Now let’s move in one direction or another (We will move East, but you could move West).

3. Let’s move from

location X to town C

. The key question: what is the change in TTM as the result of the move?

4. Notice that the move reduces travel by one mile for everyone living in town C or further east.

5. Notice also that the move increases travel by one mile for everyone living at or to the west of point X..

3-5

Computing the change in

TTM

To compute the change in total travel miles (

TTM) by moving from point X to C:

TTM = (-1)(70) + (1)(25) = - 45

Reduction in TTM for those residing in and to the East of town C

Increase in TTM for those residing at or to the west of point X.

Conclusion: The move to town C unambiguously decreases TTM— so keep moving East so long as

TTM is decreasing.

3-6

Rule of Thumb

Make a “small” move to a nearby alternative if, and only if, the move will improve one’s objective

(minimization of TTM, in this case). Keep moving, always in the direction of an improved objective, and stop when no further move will help.

Check to see if moving from

town C to town D

will improve the objective.

Check to see if moving from

town E to town F

will improve the objective.

3-7

Optimization

• An optimization problem involves the specification of three things:

• Objective function to be maximized or minimized

• Activities or choice variables that determine the value of the objective function

• Any constraints that may restrict the values of the choice variables

3-8

Optimization

• Maximization problem

• An optimization problem that involves maximizing the objective function

• Minimization problem

• An optimization problem that involves minimizing the objective function

3-9

Optimization

• Unconstrained optimization

• An optimization problem in which the decision maker can choose the level of activity from an unrestricted set of values

• Constrained optimization

• An optimization problem in which the decision maker chooses values for the choice variables from a restricted set of values

3-10

Choice Variables

• Choice variables determine the value of the objective function

• Continuous variables: Can assume an infinite number of values within a given range — usually the result of measurement.

• Discrete variables

3-11

Choice Variables

• Continuous variables

• Can choose from uninterrupted span of variables

• Discrete variables

• Must choose from a span of variables that is interrupted by gaps

3-12

Net Benefit

• Net Benefit

(NB)

• Difference between total benefit

(TB) and total cost (TC) for the activity

NB = TB – TC

• Optimal level of the activity

(A

*

) is the level that maximizes net benefit

3-13

Optimal Level of Activity

(Figure 3.1)

4,000

3,000

2,310

2,000

C •

B •

B’

NB* = $1,225

D

D’

F •

1,085

1,000

C’

0 200 350 = A* 600 700

Level of activity

Panel A – Total benefit and total cost curves

TC

G •

TB

1,000

A

1,225

1,000

600

• c’’

0

Panel B – Net benefit curve

200

M • d’’

350 = A* 600

Level of activity

• f’’

NB

1,000

A

3-14

Marginal Benefit & Marginal Cost

• Marginal benefit

(MB)

• Change in total benefit

(TB) caused by an incremental change in the level of the activity

• Marginal cost

(MC)

• Change in total cost

(TC) caused by an incremental change in the level of the activity

3-15

Marginal Benefit & Marginal Cost

MB

Change in total benefit

Change in activity

TB

A

MC

Change in total benefit

Change in activity

TC

A

3-16

Relating Marginals to Totals

• Marginal variables measure rates of change in corresponding total variables

• Marginal benefit & marginal cost are also slopes of total benefit & total cost curves, respectively

3-17

Relating Marginals to Totals

(Figure 3.2)

TC

4,000

3,000

100

320

100

D’

D

F •

820

G •

520

100

B

100

2,000

640

C B’

520

1,000

8

C’ •

100

100

340

0 200 350 = A* 600

Level of activity

Panel A

– Measuring slopes along TB and TC

800 1,000

MC (= slope of TC)

• d’ (600, $8.20)

6

5.20

4

• c (200, $6.40)

• b

• c’ (200, $3.40)

• d (600, $3.20)

2

MB (= slope of TB)

TB

A g •

1,000 0 200

Panel B

– Marginals give slopes of totals

350 = A* 600

Level of activity

800

A

3-18

Using Marginal Analysis to Find

Optimal Activity Levels

• If marginal benefit > marginal cost

• Activity should be increased to reach highest net benefit

• If marginal cost > marginal benefit

• Activity should be decreased to reach highest net benefit

3-19

Using Marginal Analysis to Find

Optimal Activity Levels

• Optimal level of activity

• When no further increases in net benefit are possible

• Occurs when

MB = MC

3-20

Using Marginal Analysis to Find A *

(Figure 3.3)

0

300

MB > MC

100

• c’’

200

MB = MC

MB < MC

• M

350 = A*

100 d’’

600

500

800

NB

Level of activity

1,000

A

3-21

Unconstrained Maximization with

Discrete Choice Variables

• Increase activity if

MB > MC

• Decrease activity if

MB < MC

• Optimal level of activity

• Last level for which

MB exceeds MC

3-22

Irrelevance of Sunk, Fixed, and

Average Costs

• Sunk costs

• Previously paid & cannot be recovered

• Fixed costs

• Constant & must be paid no matter the level of activity

• Average (or unit) costs

• Computed by dividing total cost by the number of units of the activity

3-23

Irrelevance of Sunk, Fixed, and

Average Costs

• These costs do not affect marginal cost & are irrelevant for optimal decisions

3-24

Constrained Optimization

• The ratio

MB/P represents the additional benefit per additional dollar spent on the activity

• Ratios of marginal benefits to prices of various activities are used to allocate a fixed number of dollars among activities

3-25

Constrained Optimization

• To maximize or minimize an objective function subject to a constraint

• Ratios of the marginal benefit to price must be equal for all activities

• Constraint must be met

MB

A

MB

B

P

A

P

B

MB

Z

P

Z

3-26