Operations Management Chapter 13 – Aggregate Planning PowerPoint presentation to accompany Heizer/Render Principles of Operations Management, 6e Operations Management, 8e © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. Hall, Inc. © 2006 Prentice 13 – 1 Outline Global Company Profile: Anheuser-Busch The Planning Process The Nature Of Aggregate Planning Aggregate Planning Strategies Capacity Options Demand Options Mixing Options to Develop a Plan © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 2 Outline – Continued Methods For Aggregate Planning Graphical and Charting Methods Mathematical Approaches to Planning Comparison of Aggregate Planning Methods © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 3 Outline – Continued Aggregate Planning In Services Restaurants Hospital National Chains of Small Service Firms Miscellaneous Services Airline Industry Yield Management © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 4 Learning Objectives When you complete this chapter, you should be able to: Identify or Define: Aggregate planning Tactical scheduling Graphic technique for aggregate planning Mathematical techniques for aggregate planning © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 5 Learning Objectives When you complete this chapter, you should be able to: Describe or Explain: How to do aggregate planning How service firms develop aggregate plans © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 6 Anheuser-Busch Anheuser-Busch produces nearly 40% of the beer consumed in the U.S. Matches fluctuating demand by brand to plant, labor, and inventory capacity to achieve high facility utilization High facility utilization requires Meticulous cleaning between batches Effective maintenance Efficient employees Efficient facility scheduling © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 7 Aggregate Planning Determine the quantity and timing of production for the immediate future Objective is to minimize cost over the planning period by adjusting Production rates Labor levels Inventory levels Overtime work Subcontracting Other controllable variables © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 8 Aggregate Planning Required for aggregate planning A logical overall unit for measuring sales and output A forecast of demand for intermediate planning period in these aggregate units A method for determining costs A model that combines forecasts and costs so that scheduling decisions can be made for the planning period © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 9 The Planning Process Long-range plans (over one year) Research & Development New product plans Capital investment Facility location/expansion Top executives Operations managers Intermediate-range plans (3 to 18 months) Sales planning Production planning and budgeting Setting employment, inventory, subcontracting levels Analyzing cooperating plans Short-range plans (up to 3 months) Operations managers, supervisors, foremen Responsibility © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. Job assignments Ordering Job scheduling Dispatching Overtime Part-time help Planning tasks and horizon Figure 13.1 13 – 10 Aggregate Planning Jan 150,000 Quarter 1 Feb 120,000 Apr 100,000 Mar 110,000 Quarter 2 May 130,000 Jul 180,000 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. Jun 150,000 Quarter 3 Aug 150,000 Sep 140,000 13 – 11 Aggregate Planning Marketplace and demand Demand forecasts, orders Product decisions Research and technology Process planning and capacity decisions Workforce Aggregate plan for production Master production schedule and MRP systems Detailed work schedules © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. Raw materials available External capacity (subcontractors) Inventory on hand Figure 13.2 13 – 12 Aggregate Planning Combines appropriate resources into general terms Part of a larger production planning system Disaggregation breaks the plan down into greater detail Disaggregation results in a master production schedule © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 13 Aggregate Planning Strategies 1. Use inventories to absorb changes in demand 2. Accommodate changes by varying workforce size 3. Use part-timers, overtime, or idle time to absorb changes 4. Use subcontractors and maintain a stable workforce 5. Change prices or other factors to influence demand © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 14 Capacity Options Changing inventory levels Increase inventory in low demand periods to meet high demand in the future Increases costs associated with storage, insurance, handling, obsolescence, and capital investment Shortages can mean lost sales due to long lead times and poor customer service © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 15 Capacity Options Varying workforce size by hiring or layoffs Match production rate to demand Training and separation costs for hiring and laying off workers New workers may have lower productivity Laying off workers may lower morale and productivity © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 16 Capacity Options Varying production rate through overtime or idle time Allows constant workforce May be difficult to meet large increases in demand Overtime can be costly and may drive down productivity Absorbing idle time may be difficult © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 17 Capacity Options Subcontracting Temporary measure during periods of peak demand May be costly Assuring quality and timely delivery may be difficult Exposes your customers to a possible competitor © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 18 Capacity Options Using part-time workers Useful for filling unskilled or low skilled positions, especially in services © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 19 Demand Options Influencing demand Use advertising or promotion to increase demand in low periods Attempt to shift demand to slow periods May not be sufficient to balance demand and capacity © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 20 Demand Options Back ordering during highdemand periods Requires customers to wait for an order without loss of goodwill or the order Most effective when there are few if any substitutes for the product or service Often results in lost sales © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 21 Demand Options Counterseasonal product and service mixing Develop a product mix of counterseasonal items May lead to products or services outside the company’s areas of expertise © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 22 Aggregate Planning Options Option Advantages Disadvantages Some Comments Changing inventory levels Changes in Inventory human holding cost resources are may increase. gradual or Shortages may none; no abrupt result in lost production sales. changes Applies mainly to production, not service, operations Varying workforce size by hiring or layoffs Avoids the costs Hiring, layoff, of other and training alternatives costs may be significant Used where size of labor pool is large Table 13.1 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 23 Aggregate Planning Options Option Advantages Disadvantages Some Comments Allows flexibility within the aggregate plan Varying production rates through overtime or idle time Matches seasonal fluctuations without hiring/ training costs Overtime premiums; tired workers; may not meet demand Subcontracting Permits flexibility and smoothing of the firm’s output Loss of quality Applies mainly in control; production reduced profits; settings loss of future business Table 13.1 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 24 Aggregate Planning Options Option Advantages Disadvantages Some Comments High turnover/ training costs; quality suffers; scheduling difficult Good for unskilled jobs in areas with large temporary labor pools Using parttime workers Is less costly and more flexible than full-time workers Influencing demand Tries to use Uncertainty in excess demand. Hard capacity. to match Discounts draw demand to new customers. supply exactly. Creates marketing ideas. Overbooking used in some businesses. Table 13.1 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 25 Aggregate Planning Options Option Advantages Disadvantages Some Comments Back ordering during highdemand periods May avoid overtime. Keeps capacity constant. Customer must be willing to wait, but goodwill is lost. Allows flexibility within the aggregate plan Counterseasonal product and service mixing Fully utilizes resources; allows stable workforce May require skills or equipment outside the firm’s areas of expertise Risky finding products or services with opposite demand patterns Table 13.1 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 26 Methods for Aggregate Planning A mixed strategy may be the best way to achieve minimum costs There are many possible mixed strategies Finding the optimal plan is not always possible © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 27 Mixing Options to Develop a Plan Chase strategy Match output rates to demand forecast for each period Vary workforce levels or vary production rate Favored by many service organizations © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 28 Mixing Options to Develop a Plan Level strategy Daily production is uniform Use inventory or idle time as buffer Stable production leads to better quality and productivity Some combination of capacity options, a mixed strategy, might be the best solution © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 29 Graphical and Charting Methods Popular techniques Easy to understand and use Trial-and-error approaches that do not guarantee an optimal solution Require only limited computations © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 30 Graphical and Charting Methods 1. Determine the demand for each period 2. Determine the capacity for regular time, overtime, and subcontracting each period 3. Find labor costs, hiring and layoff costs, and inventory holding costs 4. Consider company policy on workers and stock levels 5. Develop alternative plans and examine their total costs © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 31 Planning Example 1 Production Days 22 Month Jan Expected Demand 900 Feb Mar Apr May June 700 800 1,200 1,500 1,100 18 21 21 22 20 6,200 124 Demand Per Day (computed) 41 39 38 57 68 55 Table 13.2 Total expected demand Average requirement = Number of production days 6,200 = = 50 units per day 124 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 32 Production rate per working day Planning Example 1 Forecast demand 70 – 60 – Level production using average monthly forecast demand 50 – 40 – 30 – 0 – Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 22 18 21 21 22 20 Figure 13.3 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. = Month = Number of working days 13 – 33 Planning Example 1 Cost Information Inventory carrying cost $ 5 per unit per month Subcontracting cost per unit $10 per unit Average pay rate $ 5 per hour ($40 per day) Overtime pay rate Labor-hours to produce a unit Cost of increasing daily production rate (hiring and training) Cost of decreasing daily production rate (layoffs) $ 7 per hour (above 8 hours per day) 1.6 hours per unit $300 per unit $600 per unit Table 13.3 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 34 Planning Example 1 Cost Information Production at Month carry 50 Units Inventory cost per Day Monthly Demand Inventory Ending Forecast $ 5Change per unit per Inventory month Subcontracting cost per unit Jan 1,100 900 Feb pay rate 900 700 Average Mar 1,050 800 Overtime pay rate Apr 1,050 1,200 Labor-hours to produce May 1,100 a unit 1,500 Cost of increasing daily production rate June 1,000 1,100 (hiring and training) Cost of decreasing daily production rate (layoffs) $10 +200 per unit 200 $ 5 per hour ($40 per day) +200 400 +250 650 $ 7 per hour (above 8 hours per day) -150 500 1.6 hours per unit -400 100 $300 per unit -100 0 1,850 $600 per unit Total units of inventory carried over from one month to the next = 1,850 units Table 13.3 Workforce required to produce 50 units per day = 10 workers © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 35 Planning Example 1 Monthly Costs Calculations Cost Information Production at Demand Inventory Ending Month carry 50 Units Forecast Inventory $ 5Change perunits unit per month Inventory cost per Day $9,250 Inventory carrying (= 1,850 carried x $5 unit) $10 per unit Subcontracting cost per unit Jan 1,100 900 per +200 200 Regular-time labor 49,600 x $40per per $ 5 workers per hour ($40 day) Feb pay rate 900 700 (= 10 +200 400 Average x+250 124 days) 650 Mar 1,050 800 day $ 7 per hour Overtime pay rate (above 8 hours per day) Other Apr costs (overtime, 1,050 1,200 -150 500 hiring, layoffs, 1.6 hours per unit Labor-hours to produce a unit May 1,100 1,500 -400 100 subcontracting) 0 Cost of increasing daily production rate $300 per unit June 1,000 1,100 -100 0 Total cost $58,850 (hiring and training) 1,850 Cost of decreasing daily production rate $600 per unit (layoffs) Total units of inventory carried over from one month to the next = 1,850 units Table 13.3 Workforce required to produce 50 units per day = 10 workers © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 36 Planning Example 1 7,000 – Cumulative demand units 6,000 – 5,000 – 4,000 – Reduction of inventory Cumulative level production using average monthly forecast requirements 3,000 – 2,000 – Cumulative forecast requirements 1,000 – Excess inventory – Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Figure 13.4 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 37 Planning Example 2 Production Days 22 Month Jan Expected Demand 900 Feb Mar Apr May June 700 800 1,200 1,500 1,100 18 21 21 22 20 6,200 124 Demand Per Day (computed) 41 39 38 57 68 55 Table 13.2 Minimum requirement = 38 units per day © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 38 Production rate per working day Planning Example 2 Forecast demand 70 – Level production using lowest monthly forecast demand 60 – 50 – 40 – 30 – 0 – Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 22 18 21 21 22 20 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. = Month = Number of working days 13 – 39 Planning Example 2 Cost Information Inventory carrying cost $ 5 per unit per month Subcontracting cost per unit $10 per unit Average pay rate $ 5 per hour ($40 per day) Overtime pay rate Labor-hours to produce a unit Cost of increasing daily production rate (hiring and training) Cost of decreasing daily production rate (layoffs) $ 7 per hour (above 8 hours per day) 1.6 hours per unit $300 per unit $600 per unit Table 13.3 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 40 Planning Example 2 Cost Information Inventory carry cost In-housecost production Subcontracting per unit Average pay rate Overtime pay rate $ 5 per unit per month = 38$10units per day per unit x $124 5 perdays hour ($40 per day) = 4,712 $ 7 perunits hour Labor-hours to produce a unit Subcontract units (above 8 hours per day) 1.6 hours per unit 6,200 - 4,712 = Cost of increasing daily production rate $300 per unit = 1,488 units (hiring and training) Cost of decreasing daily production rate (layoffs) $600 per unit Table 13.3 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 41 Planning Example 2 Cost Information Inventory carry cost In-housecost production Subcontracting per unit Average pay rate Overtime pay rate $ 5 per unit per month = 38$10units per day per unit x $124 5 perdays hour ($40 per day) = 4,712 $ 7 perunits hour Costs Subcontract Labor-hours to produce a unit units (above 8 hours per day) 1.6 hours per unit Calculations 6,200 - 4,712 = Regular-time labor $37,696 (= 7.6 workers Cost of increasing daily production rate $300 per unit x $40 per = 1,488 units (hiring and training) day x 124 days) Cost of decreasing daily production unitx $10 per Subcontracting 14,880rate (= $600 1,488per units (layoffs) unit) Table 13.3 Total cost © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. $52,576 13 – 42 Planning Example 3 Production Days 22 Month Jan Expected Demand 900 Feb Mar Apr May June 700 800 1,200 1,500 1,100 18 21 21 22 20 6,200 124 Demand Per Day (computed) 41 39 38 57 68 55 Table 13.2 Production = Expected Demand © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 43 Production rate per working day Planning Example 3 Forecast demand and monthly production 70 – 60 – 50 – 40 – 30 – 0 – Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 22 18 21 21 22 20 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. = Month = Number of working days 13 – 44 Planning Example 3 Cost Information Inventory carrying cost $ 5 per unit per month Subcontracting cost per unit $10 per unit Average pay rate $ 5 per hour ($40 per day) Overtime pay rate Labor-hours to produce a unit Cost of increasing daily production rate (hiring and training) Cost of decreasing daily production rate (layoffs) $ 7 per hour (above 8 hours per day) 1.6 hours per unit $300 per unit $600 per unit Table 13.3 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 45 Planning Example 3 Basic Production Cost Inventory carrying cost (demand x Daily Forecast Prod 1.6 hrs/unit x Subcontracting cost per unit Month (units) Rate $5/hr) Cost Information Extra Cost of Extra Cost of $ 5 perDecreasing unit per month Increasing Production Production $10 per unitcost) Total Cost (hiring cost) (layoff 41 $ 7,200 — $ 5 per hour day) — ($40 per$ 7,200 Feb 700 Overtime pay rate39 5,600 — Mar 800 to produce 38 6,400 Labor-hours a unit — $1,200 $ 7 per hour 6,800 (= 2 x $600) (above 8 hours per day) $600 7,000 1.6 hours per unit (= 1 x $600) Jan 900 rate Average pay $5,700$300 per unit Cost rate Apr of increasing 1,200 57daily production 9,600 — (= 19 x $300) (hiring and training) $3,300 Cost rate $600 per unit May of decreasing 1,500 68daily production 12,000 — (= 11 x $300) (layoffs) June 1,100 Table 13.3 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 55 8,800 $49,600 15,300 15,300 — $7,800 (= 13 x $600) 16,600 $9,000 $9,600 $68,200 13 – 46 Comparison of Three Plans Cost Plan 1 Plan 2 Inventory carrying $ 9,250 $ Regular labor 49,600 37,696 49,600 Overtime labor 0 0 0 Hiring 0 0 9,000 Layoffs 0 0 9,600 Subcontracting 0 0 0 $58,850 $52,576 $68,200 Total cost 0 Plan 2 is the lowest cost option © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. Plan 3 $ 0 Table 13.5 13 – 47 Mathematical Approaches Useful for generating strategies Transportation Method of Linear Programming Produces an optimal plan Management Coefficients Model Model built around manager’s experience and performance Other Models Linear Decision Rule Simulation © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 48 Transportation Method Demand Capacity: Regular Overtime Subcontracting Beginning inventory Sales Period Mar Apr May 800 1,000 750 700 50 150 100 700 50 150 tires 700 50 130 Costs Regular time Overtime Subcontracting Carrying © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. $40 $50 $70 $2 per tire per tire per tire per tire Table 13.6 13 – 49 Transportation Example Important points 1. Carrying costs are $2/tire/month. If goods are made in one period and held over to the next, holding costs are incurred 2. Supply must equal demand, so a dummy column called “unused capacity” is added 3. Because back ordering is not viable in this example, cells that might be used to satisfy earlier demand are not available © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 50 Transportation Example Important points 4. Quantities in each column designate the levels of inventory needed to meet demand requirements 5. In general, production should be allocated to the lowest cost cell available without exceeding unused capacity in the row or demand in the column © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 51 Transportation Example Table 13.7 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 52 Management Coefficients Model Builds a model based on manager’s experience and performance A regression model is constructed to define the relationships between decision variables Objective is to remove inconsistencies in decision making © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 53 Other Models Linear Decision Rule Minimizes costs using quadratic cost curves Operates over a particular time period Simulation Uses a search procedure to try different combinations of variables Develops feasible but not necessarily optimal solutions © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 54 Summary of Aggregate Planning Methods Techniques Solution Approaches Important Aspects Graphical/charting methods Trial and error Simple to understand and easy to use. Many solutions; one chosen may not be optimal. Transportation method of linear programming Optimization LP software available; permits sensitivity analysis and new constraints; linear functions may not be realistic Management Heuristic coefficients model Simple, easy to implement; tries to mimic manager’s decision process; uses regression Table 13.8 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 55 Aggregate Planning in Services Controlling the cost of labor is critical 1. Close scheduling of labor-hours to assure quick response to customer demand 2. Some form of on-call labor resource 3. Flexibility of individual worker skills 4. Individual worker flexibility in rate of output or hours © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 56 Five Service Scenarios Restaurants Smoothing the production process Determining the workforce size Hospitals Responding to patient demand © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 57 Five Service Scenarios National chains of small service firms Planning done at national level and at local level Miscellaneous services Plan human resource requirements Manage demand © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 58 Law Firm Example (1) Category of Legal Business (2) Best Case (hours) (3) Likely Case (hours) Trial work Legal research Corporate law Real estate law Criminal law 1,800 4,500 8,000 1,700 3,500 1,500 4,000 7,000 1,500 3,000 1,200 3,500 6,500 1,300 2,500 19,500 39 17,000 34 15,000 30 Total hours Lawyers needed (4) Worst Case (hours) (5) Maximum Demand in People (6) Number of Qualified Personnel 3.6 9.0 16.0 3.4 7.0 4 32 15 6 12 Table 13.9 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 59 Five Service Scenarios Airline industry Extremely complex planning problem Involves number of flights, number of passengers, air and ground personnel Resources spread through the entire system © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 60 Yield Management Allocating resources to customers at prices that will maximize yield or revenue 1. Service or product can be sold in advance of consumption 2. Demand fluctuates 3. Capacity is relatively fixed 4. Demand can be segmented 5. Variable costs are low and fixed costs are high © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 61 Yield Management Example Demand Curve Room sales Potential customers exist who are willing to pay more than the $15 variable cost of the room 100 Passed-up contribution 50 $ margin = (Price) x (50 rooms) = ($150 - $15) x (50) = $6,750 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. $15 Variable cost of room Some customers who paid $150 were actually willing to pay more for the room Money left on the table $150 Price charged for room Price Figure 13.5 13 – 62 Yield Management Example Demand Curve Room sales 100 Total $ margin = (1st price) x 30 rooms + (2nd price) x 30 rooms = ($100 - $15) x 30 + ($200 - $15) x 30 = $2,550 + $5,550 = $8,100 60 30 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. $15 Variable cost of room $100 Price 1 for room $200 Price 2 for room Price Figure 13.6 13 – 63 Yield Management Matrix Predictable Unpredictable Duration of use Price Tend to be fixed Tend to be variable Quadrant 1: Quadrant 2: Movies Stadiums/arenas Convention centers Hotel meeting space Hotels Airlines Rental cars Cruise lines Quadrant 3: Quadrant 4: Restaurants Golf courses Internet service providers Continuing care hospitals Figure 13.7 © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 64 Making Yield Management Work 1. Multiple pricing structures must be feasible and appear logical to the customer 2. Forecasts of the use and duration of use 3. Changes in demand © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 13 – 65