Global Prospects for Cost-Effective Development of
Ocean Energy for Island Electrification
Dr. Narasimalu Srikanth
OES Represenative
Program Director/ Senior Scientist
Energy Research Institutute @NTU (ERI@N), Singapore
Conference on Island Energy Transitions: Pathways for Accelerated Uptake of Renewables
22-24 June 2015, IRENA- Martinique
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Need for Island Electrification
(Source: Reiner-Lemoine-Institut)
11% of global population lives on islands
 huge potential for hybrid mini-grids in many
communities with no access to electricity
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Landscape of Island Electrification
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• Most islands remain heavily dependent on
conventional sources for electricity supply.
• Fossil fuel import cost covers high percentage of
GDP:
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20 % of annual imports of 34 islandic countries
within the Small Islands Developing States
network (SIDS), and 5-20 % of their GDP.
Approximately 15 % of entire import cost of most
of the European Union’s 286 islands.
 Fluctuation of fossil fuel prices cause
uncertainties for island financial planning.
 Over-exploitation of fossil fuels globally
affects the environment and threatens the
energy security of islandic societies.
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Confidential
e.g.Phillipines’s islandic Energy Needs
Electrification
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Electrification rate of the Philippines is about 89.7%.
Rural electrification fall on the Small Powers Utilities
Group (SPUG). Supplies power to off grid areas by utilizing
power barges.
Challenges – dispersed locations & absence of indigenous
energy resources
Government
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(2012 MEDP) suggests that private sector participation be
pursued.
(2012-2016 MISSIONARY ELECTRIFICATION DEVELOPMENT
PLAN)
Existing RE installed capacity: 5400MW (2012)
Plans to increase installed capacity to 12700MW (2020)
Off-grid areas of the Philippines
Potential
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Theoretical capacity of 170,000MW
Over a 1000Sq.km ocean resource area
Focus in OTEC and Tidal & wave power generation.
Potential Thousands of miles of coastline, For ocean
energy, an estimated 240,000MW capacity
Science (2010)
• Source:
NREP 2012 report
Energy Research Institute @ NTU
Confidential
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Technology Issues & Remedies of ORE towards
Islandic Needs
Challenges:
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Lack of detailed resource & siting studies.
Too high capital cost & upfront investment.
RE is less promising due to intermittency.
In developing islandic region, presence of weak grids.
Skepticism in terms of impact on other marine users.
Possible solutions:
– Require disruptive concepts that are site-specific &
scalable to form arrays thru product modularity.
– Need low cost installation methods.
– Should possess resilience towards weak grid & mitigate
interruption by energy storage & forecasting.
– Co-evolve regional market, supply chain & integrate with
local skills through inter-industry learning.
– Setup standards & procedure for specific markets such as
Tropical islands’ environmental impact assessment.
– Trust build in stakeholders thru test-bedding through
collaborative open innovation network.
Learning curve effects with Product Scaling
• During the early phases of
product development little is
known compared to all the
factors that will eventually
contribute to lifecycle cost and
performance.
• Learning curves represent longerterm cost reductions for an
industry. With every doubling of
installations the cost is expected
to decrease.
• Historically attained learning
rates of RE is ~10%-30%.
• Wind experiences a learning rate
of ~15%.
Ocean Energy Potential
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Energy system modelling to incorporate
future technological advances is to present
potential pathways for new energy
technologies to emerge wider energy mix.
OES investigated existing energy system
modelling, the Levelised Cost of Energy
(LCOE) for wave, tidal and OTEC
technologies.
Industry’s state of the art knowledge
around the costs to deploy and operate
each technology in its current state, and
the cost reductions that are foreseen on
the route to product commercialization.
Engaged stakeholders of OES countries. The
work is informed by a series of in-depth
interviews with technology developers, and
is built upon work carried out by different
international projects (e.g. SI Ocean,
DTOcean, Equimar, the Danish LCOE
Calculation Tool, Carbon Trust, and US
Department of Energy).
Costs and operational parameters of each
technology at three development phases:
pre-commercial array, second precommercial array and the commercial scale
target.
Table: Summary data averaged for each stage of deployment, and each
technology type (Source: OES)
Tidal Energy
Wave Energy
OTEC Energy
Source: OES(2015)
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Case of SEA Islandic Needs
SEA is keen towards rural islandic electrication.
Singapore is keen to be a R&D center for RE
Technologies towards tropical islandic needs and
focuses in disruptive product design & evaluates
through test bedding efforts.
Promote spillover of technologies from related
industries & traditional Ocean energy efforts
towards islandic needs.
Promote drivers for supply chain development.
Knowledge sharing of islandic states adoption of
ocean energy with similar challenges:
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50 different island communities
http://www.globalislands.net/greenislands/
http://www.direkt-project.eu/
Exploit local skills “By the People – For the
People”
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ERI@N Offshore REIDS
Create new job opportunities.
Setup necessary training to create manpower through
engaging local academic institutions.
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Cost Effective Technology Developments
• Need to develop low cost disruptive
resource mapping methods:
– Easily evaluate resource potential through
Remote sensing & meso-scale resource
mapping.
– Cost effective installation methods of
Offshore renewable energy systems. Easily
towable RE systems with easy
decommissioning methods.
– Environmentally safe RE systems such that
marine life is undisturbed (Corals, Sea based
Mamals, nearby Fishfarms, etc).
– Setup proper procedures for Environmental
impact assessment toward other marine
users.
– Land based WEC designs are good for
islandic condition e.g. ‘LIMPET’ & Mutriku
case study. LCOEs approx. 0,5 USD/kWh at
12% interest today
Source: Bluetec
Source: Schotel
Source: Voith Hydro Wavegen
Efforts for affordable RE systems
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Stakeholders action items:
– Government: to identify suitable mechanisms
& policies to support towards technology supply and
market demand evolution such as through
technology push and market pull needs.
– Industry: Regional firms to understand ocean
energy potential and support the evolution of
production chain.
– Research: To evolve unique products &
technologies for island’s technology gaps.
• Evolve industrial clusters to promote supply
chain and reduce cost
• Convergence within the industry need to
happen in short time through collaborative
effort to evolve supply chain involvement.
• Additionally to unlock the power of energy
users (PROSUMERS) – to create high demand
for RE which will bring down the cost.
• Need to be aware of likely impacts of future
ocean industry development on marine ecosystems and sustainability, the use of ocean
space, and the implications for managing
ocean activities
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Government Catalytic Role in RE adoption
Summary
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Ocean Energy Technology can meet Islandic energy needs and ORE Industry
is capable to support islandic states’ three-fold challenge of energy security,
CO2 emission reduction, and economic & Job growth for the region.
To reduce initial capital cost, O&M cost & LCOE, Inter-industry learning
should be explored to evolve right technologies & production chain through
identifying technology similarity.
Regions should setup industrial clusters to promote Ocean energy supply
chain and focus on customized ORE disruptive products.
Convergence within the industry need to happen in product architecture to
minimize design variants to enhance accelerated learning.
Collaborative effort needed between stakeholders (technology developers,
project developers, funding agencies) to evaluate risks and mitigate
through early full scale test-bed efforts.
OES Part of IEA is keen towards promoting Ocean Energy Systems for
Islandic region needs.
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