Chapter Six Measuring and Evaluating the Performance of Banks and Their Principal Competitors McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved Value of the Bank’s Stock E(D t) P0 t (1 r) t 0 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-2 Value of a Bank’s Stock Rises When: • Expected Dividends Increase • Risk of the Bank Falls • Market Interest Rates Decrease • Combination of Expected Dividend Increase and Risk Decline McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-3 Value of Bank’s Stock if Earnings Growth is Constant D1 P0 r-g McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-4 Key Profitability Ratios in Banking Net Income Return on Equity Capital (ROE) = Total Equity Capital Net Income Return on Assets (ROA) = Total Assets Net Interest Income Net Interest Margin Total Assets Net Noninteres t Income Net Noninteres t Margin Total Assets McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-5 Key Profitability Ratios in Banking (cont.) Total Operating Revenues Total Operating Expenses Net Bank Operating Margin Total Assets Earnings Per Share (EPS) Net Income After Taxes Common Equity Shares Outstandin g Total Interest Income __ Total Interest Expense Earnings Spread = Total Earning Assets Total Interest Bearing Liability McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-6 Breaking Down ROE ROE = Net Income/ Total Equity Capital ROA = Net Income/Total Assets x Equity Multiplier = Total Assets/Equity Capital Net Profit Margin = Asset Utilization = x Net Income/Total Operating Revenue Total Operating Revenue/Total Assets McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-7 ROE Depends On: • Equity Multiplier – Leverage or Financing Policies • Net Profit Margin – Effectiveness of Expense Management • Asset Utilization – Portfolio Management Policies McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-8 Components of ROE for All Insured U.S. Banks (1996-2005) Year 2005 2004 2003 2002 2000 1998 ROE 12.68 13.27 15.04 14.11 13.53 13.51 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e = = = = = = = NPM 18.89 19.81 19.86 17.10 12.02 12.73 X X X X X X X AU 6.93 6.51 6.95 7.60 9.48 9.11 X X X X X X X EM 9.63 9.72 10.93 10.87 11.78 11.74 © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-9 A Variation on ROE Net Income Pre-Tax Net Operating Income ROE = Pre-Tax Net Operating Income Total Operating Revenue Total Operating Revenue Total Assets Total Assets Total Equity Capital ROE = Tax Management Efficiency Expense Control Efficiency Asset Management Efficiency Funds Management Efficiency McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-10 Breakdown of ROA Net Interest Income Net Noninterest Income ROA = Total Assets Total Assets PLL-Security Gain(Losses)+Taxes-Extraordinary Gains Total Assets ROA = Net Interest Margin + Net Noninterest Margin + Special Transactions Affecting Net Income McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-11 Bank Risks • Credit Risk • Liquidity Risk • Market Risk • Interest Rate Risk • Operational Risk McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e • Legal and Compliance Risk • Reputation Risk • Strategic Risk • Capital Risk © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-12 Credit Risk The Probability that Some of the Financial Firm’s Assets Will Decline in Value and Perhaps Become Worthless McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-13 Credit Risk Measures • • • • • • • Nonperforming Loans/Total Loans Net Charge-Offs/Total Loans Provision for Loan Losses/Total Loans Provision for Loan Losses/Equity Capital Allowance for Loan Losses/Total Loans Allowance for Loan Losses/Equity Capital Nonperforming Loans/Equity Capital McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-14 Liquidity Risk Probability the Financial Firm Will Not Have Sufficient Cash and Borrowing Capacity to Meet Deposit Withdrawals and Other Cash Needs McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-15 Liquidity Risk Measures • Purchased Funds/Total Assets • Net Loans/Total Assets • Cash and Due from Banks/Total Assets • Cash and Government Securities/Total Assets McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-16 Market Risk Probability of the Market Value of the Financial Firm’s Investment Portfolio Declining in Value Due to a Change in Interest Rates McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-17 Market Risk Measures • • • • Book-Value of Assets/ Market Value of Assets Book-Value of Equity/ Market Value of Equity Book-Value of Bonds/Market Value of Bonds Market Value of Preferred Stock and Common Stock McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-18 Interest Rate Risk The Danger that Shifting Interest Rates May Adversely Affect a Bank’s Net Income, the Value of its Assets or Equity McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-19 Interest Rate Risk Measures • Interest Sensitive Assets/Interest Sensitive Liabilities • Uninsured Deposits/Total Deposits McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-20 Operational Risk Uncertainty Regarding a Financial Firm’s Earnings Due to Failures in Computer Systems, Errors, Misconduct by Employees, Floods, Lightening Strikes and Similar Events or Risk of Loss Due to Unexpected Operating Expenses McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-21 Legal and Compliance Risk Risk of Earnings Resulting from Actions Taken by the Legal System. This can Include Unenforceable Contracts, Lawsuits or Adverse Judgments. Compliance Risk Includes Violations of Rules and Regulations McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-22 Reputation Risk This is Risk Due to Negative Publicity that can Dissuade Customers from Using the Services of the Financial Firm. It is the Risk Associated with Public Opinion. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-23 Capital Risk Probability of the Value of the Bank’s Assets Declining Below the Level of its Total Liabilities. The Probability of the Bank’s Long Run Survival McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-24 Capital Risk Measures • Stock Price/Earnings Per Share • Equity Capital/Total Assets • Purchased Funds/Total Liabilities • Equity Capital/Risk Assets McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-25 Other Goals in Banking Total Operating Expenses Operating Efficiency Ratio = Total Operating Revenues Net Operating Income Employee Productivity Ratio = Number of Full Time-Equivalent Employees McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-26 UBPR • The Uniform Bank Performance Report Provided by U.S. Federal Regulators so that Analysts Can Compare the Performance of One Bank Against Another McGraw-Hill/Irwin Bank Management and Financial Services, 7/e © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 6-27