Campaigns and Voting
Behavior
9
Video: The Big Picture
9
http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MED
IA_1/polisci/presidency/Edwards_Ch09_Campaigns_and_V
oting_Behavior_Seg1_v2.html
Learning Objectives
9.1
9.2
9
Evaluate the fairness of our current
system of presidential primaries and
caucuses
Explain the key objectives of any
political campaign
Learning Objectives
9.3
9.4
9
Outline how the financing of federal
campaigns is regulated by campaign
finance laws
Determine why campaigns have an
important yet limited impact on
election outcomes
Learning Objectives
9.5
9.6
9
Identify the factors that influence
whether people vote
Assess the impact of party
identification, candidate evaluations,
and policy opinions on voting
behavior
Learning Objectives
9.7
9.8
9
Evaluate the fairness of the Electoral
College system for choosing the
president
Assess the advantages and
disadvantages of the U.S. system of
campaigns and elections
Video: The Basics
9
http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MED
IA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg2_Elections_v2.html
Nomination Game
 Nomination – official endorsement of a
candidate for office by a political party.
Success depends on momentum, money, and
media attention
 Campaign Strategy – master game plan
that is laid out to guide their campaign
9.1
Competing for Delegates

Before candidates for each party can campaign against each other in a general election, they
must compete against other potential nominees in their party’s primary elections. These
elections are held to determine delegates for each candidate. The delegates assemble at the
national party convention and the winner is known before they arrive, based on the
primary election results.
 National party convention
 State delegates meet and vote on nominee
 Nomination process more democratic today (Democratic
national convention in 1968 riots)
 McGovern-Fraser Commission-implemented reforms
in the Democratic Party’s delegate selection process that
encouraged the Republican Party and the states to move
to primary elections.
9.1
Riots at the 1968 Democratic national
convention
9.1
Riots at the 1968 Democratic national convention led to the
establishment of more open procedures for delegate selection.
These reforms have made recent party conventions more
representative of party membership diversity.
Competing for Delegates
 National party convention
 Superdelegates-people who are awarded automatic slots as
delegates because they are a member of Congress or their
party’s national committee. Their job is to balance the
tendencies of the more partisan party electorate and ensure
that an electable candidate is given the nomination.
9.1
Competing for Delegates
 Invisible primary
 Woo support of public officials out of the public eye
 most importantly, governors and members of Congress
– fundraisers etc
 Craft positive personal image-highlights their qualifications
and character to distinguish themselves from other
candidates
 Seek media attention but avoid blunders
9.1
2012 Republican primary debate
9.1
Competing for Delegates
 Caucuses and primaries
 Iowa caucus
 New Hampshire primary
 Proportional versus winner-take-all primaries
9.1
Competing for Delegates
9.1
 Evaluating the primary and caucus system
 Disproportionate attention goes to early caucuses and
primaries
 Caucus-meetings where citizens discuss and vote on a nominee.
require more effort, so voter participation is lower and reflects more
intense feelings. Iowa is the first state to hold its caucus, which
gives it media attention disproportionate to its size.
FIGURE 9.1: A count of Clinton and Obama
events during the 2008 nomination campaign
9.1
Competing for Delegates
9.1
 Evaluating the primary and caucus system
 Prominent politicians find it difficult to take time out from
their duties to run-often neglecting their duties
 Money plays too big a role in the caucuses and primaries
 Participation in primaries and caucuses is low and
unrepresentative of party membership, and of the electorate as a
whole
 25% of eligible voters cast ballots in primary elections, and
about 5% participate in caucuses
 System gives too much power to the media-They get to be
kingmakers by designating a candidate as the likely winner.
Convention Send-Off
There is no drama in today’s party conventions because the winner is known
beforehand. As a result, television news coverage has been reduced and ratings have
fallen. Only 30 million people tuned into Romney’s acceptance speech at the 2012
Republican National Convention, while 111 million watched the Giants defeat the
Patriots earlier that year.
Today’s conventions are carefully scripted infomercials for the party, designed to get
delegates and viewers energized to help the campaign.
The party’s platform used to be debated at the convention, but parties are leery of
showing any internal dissent. For that reason, the platform is now agreed behind the
scenes and simply unveiled at the convention.
The convention ends with the nominee announcing his vice-presidential pick, followed
by acceptance speeches from both nominees. The general election campaign is then
officially under way.
9.1
9.1 Why were party primaries
9.1
introduced?
a. Previous nominating process was
undemocratic
b. Candidates refused to run without a change
of nominating procedure
c. Party leadership demanded it
d. All of the above
9.1 Why were party primaries
9.1
introduced?
a. Previous nominating process was
undemocratic
b. Candidates refused to run without a change
of nominating procedure
c. Party leadership demanded it
d. All of the above
Campaign Game
The word campaign originated as a military term: generals mounted
campaigns, using their limited resources to achieve strategic objectives.
Political campaigns are conducted using similar strategies to deploy time,
money, and energy in the most effective manner.
High-Tech Media Campaign
Organizing the Campaign
9.2
High-Tech Media Campaign
9.2
 Main means of reaching voters = TV
 Internet increasingly important
 Direct mail (flyer/postcard) now digital
 easier to donate and cheaper to solicit funds.
 Digital campaigning via Twitter, Facebook
 Obligatory for the modern campaign
 Two ways to get attention
 Television advertising
 News coverage
Organizing the Campaign
 Get a campaign manager
 Get a fund-raiser - $$$$ is key to victory
 Get a campaign counsel-ensure compliance
with campaign finance laws






Hire media and campaign consultants
Assemble a campaign staff
Plan the logistics
Get a research staff and policy advisers
Hire a pollster
Hire a good press secretary
9.2
9.2 Which staff members does a
modern candidate need to hire?
a. Press secretary
b. Pollsters
c. Campaign manager
d. All of the above
9.2
9.2 Which staff members does a
modern candidate need to hire?
a. Press secretary
b. Pollsters
c. Campaign manager
d. All of the above
9.2
Money and Campaigning
9.3
 Regulations on Campaign Contributions
 Regulations on Independent Political
Expenditures
 Are Campaigns Too Expensive?
 Does Money Buy Victory?
Many people of moderate means make small donations to political candidates, but the cost of campaigns
is so high that wealthy contributors can buy special influence over elected officials, to the detriment of
middle class and poorer Americans.
There are two basic ways of contributing money to campaigns. Donors can make a direct contribution to
the campaign or they can spend money independently to support a candidate, without coordinating this
expenditure with the campaign.
Regulations on Campaign
Contributions
9.3
 Federal Election Campaign Act (1974)
 Who contributed
 How money spent
 Limits on individual (was $1000 now $2500) and interest
group contributions ($5000)
 Federal Election Commission (FEC) (opensecrets.org and fundrace.org)
 Public financing-People (7% do) can check a box on their tax returns to designate $3 of their
taxes to this fund. Because candidates have to agree to overall spending limits if they accept this money, no
candidate does so.
The Federal Election Campaign Act also created a fund for public financing of elections. People can check a box on their
tax returns to designate $3 of their taxes to this fund. Because candidates have to agree to overall spending limits
if they accept this money, no candidate does so.
 Loopholes
 No limits on spending own money – Ross Perot $60 mil and
Mitt Romney $44 mil
 Soft money-Soft money was given to parties rather than candidates, so it was not subject to contribution
limits until the McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform Act of 2002 was passed. This Act banned soft-money
contributions, although corporations and wealthy donors continue to find new loopholes to gain influence over
elected officials ($25,000+ limit)
“Money like water, inevitably finds its way around any obstacle”
Figure 9.2: How Obama raised more
campaign money by declining federal funds
9.3
Regulations on Independent
Political Expenditures
 527 groups
 New route for soft money, no limits
 (named for tax code)
 Endorsements forbidden (Vote for, vote
against)
 Citizens United v. FEC (2010)Until 2010, corporations and unions could not electioneer in the final 60 days before the election,
but the Court ruled 5 to 4 in Citizens United that money equals speech and corporations are people,
so restrictions on electioneering were a violation of speech rights. This was one of the Court’s
more controversial decisions.
9.3
Citizens United
9.3
Let’s look at the reason behind the Citizens United lawsuit. David Bossie, shown here, is president of Citizens United, a conservative
nonprofit organization, which in 2008 produced Hillary: The Movie. When the Federal Election Commission ruled that this movie was
unlawful electioneering, Citizens United successfully sued, establishing the right of any group to engage in independent political
expenditures.
Regulations on Independent
Political Expenditures
 501(c) groups-From the donor’s perspective, there
remained one problem with the unlimited spending they could do
with 527 groups: it still had to be reported. 501c don’t have to
publicly disclose the names of donors or amount of donations.
(report of donation to IRS not FEC, don’t have to report unless
SPECIFICALLY donated for an ad)
 Super PACs-The Citizens United ruling led to the creation of new interest
groups dubbed Super PACs because of the immense amounts of money they can spend
provided that it’s in the form of independent expenditures.

May accept donations of any size and can endorse candidates. Their contributions
and expenditures must periodically be reported to FEC
9.3
TABLE 9.1: Biggest 10 Super PAC donations
in 2012
9.3
Are Campaigns Too
Expensive?
 Yes
 2008 federal elections cost $5 billion
 Fundraising distracts from official duties
 No
 Only .05% of GDP spent on elections
 About the cost of one DVD per person
reforms are not easy in the wake of the Citizens United decision that equates campaign
spending with speech. This decision makes most restrictions on campaign financing
unconstitutional. Also, incumbents are unlikely to give up their fundraising advantage.
9.3
Video: In the Real World
9.3
http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MED
IA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg5_Elections_v2.html
Does Money Buy Victory?
 Is there a link between money and
votes?
 Some say no
 Spend more only when weak
 Doctrine of sufficiency
 No need to outspend opponent to win
 In fact, some argue that there’s a point of diminishing returns. The doctrine of
sufficiency states that you need to spend enough to get your message across
but spending more than your opponent isn’t always necessary. There are
notable examples of candidates who outspent their opponents 5 to 1 and yet
lost.
9.3
9.3 What are independent political
9.3
expenditures?
a. Money spent between campaigns to keep
an official visible to voters
b. Money spent on bumper stickers and lawn
signs to support a candidate
c. Money spent without coordination with a
campaign
d. Money spent to endorse a candidate
explicitly
9.3 What are independent political
9.3
expenditures?
a. Money spent between campaigns to keep
an official visible to voters
b. Money spent on bumper stickers and lawn
signs to support a candidate
c. Money spent without coordination with a
campaign
d. Money spent to endorse a candidate
explicitly
Impact of Campaigns
 How important are campaigns?
 reinforcing voters’ preferences for candidates
 getting them to contribute time or money rather than merely
voting
 converting voters, or changing their minds
 Why are conversions rare?
 Selective perception-pay the most attention to things they already agree with and
interpret events according to their own predispositions
 Party identification
 Incumbent advantage-name recognition and record

Wedge issues-splits members of the other party and try to lure voters who feel
strongly about that one issue. Democrats, for example, will try to appeal to prochoice Republicans, and Republicans will attempt to win over anti-abortion
9.4
9.4 In what way is a campaign least
likely to influence voters?
a. Activating voters to participate or
contribute money
b. Converting voters to switch sides
c. Reinforcing voters’ preference for
candidates
d. None of the above
9.4
9.4 In what way is a campaign least
likely to influence voters?
a. Activating voters to participate or
contribute money
b. Converting voters to switch sides
c. Reinforcing voters’ preference for
candidates
d. None of the above
9.4
Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s
First Choice
 Deciding Whether to Vote
 Registering to Vote
 Who Votes?
9.5
2008 Minnesota Senate race
9.5
Deciding Whether to Vote
 Does one vote matter?
 Voting is costly
 Tuesday is a workday
 Is it rational to vote?
 Policy differences
 Political efficacy
 Civic duty
9.5
Video: In Context
9.5
http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MED
IA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg3_Voting_v2.html
Registering to Vote
 Voter registration laws differ by state
 Motor Voter Act (1993)
 Voter ID laws
 Show government-issued photo ID to vote
9.5
New voter ID laws
9.5
Who Votes?
9.5
 Education
 Main factor
 Increased sense of political efficacy
 Ease of clearing bureaucratic hurdles
 Age
 Older = more likely to vote
 Younger citizens less settled
 Race and ethnicity
 Black and Hispanic turnout lower
 Gender, marital status, govt. employment
TABLE 9.2: Reported turnout rates for groups
of U.S. citizens in 2008 and 2010
9.5
Rock the Vote
9.5
9.5 Which demographic group is
9.5
most likely to vote?
a. Young Hispanics with high school diplomas
b. Young single whites with college degrees
c. Older married people with college degrees
d. Older single people without high school
diplomas
9.5 Which demographic group is
9.5
most likely to vote?
a. Young Hispanics with high school diplomas
b. Young single whites with college degrees
c. Older married people with college degrees
d. Older single people without high school
diplomas
Video: Thinking Like a
Political Scientist
9.5
http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MED
IA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg4_Elections_v2.html
How Americans Vote:
Explaining Citizens’ Decisions
 Party Identification
 Candidate Evaluations: How Americans
See the Candidates
 Policy Voting
 2012
9.6
Party Identification
 Provide perspective
 Similar to sports teams and religion
 Cue to who is on one’s side
 Simplifies candidate selection
 “My party—right or wrong” no more
 Floating voters
 Likely to be younger
9.6
Candidate Evaluations: How
Americans See the Candidates
 Image is key to getting votes
 Integrity
 Reliability
 Competence
 Superficial and irrational?
9.6
Policy Voting
 Voting based on issue preferences






Clear sense of policy preferences
Know where candidates stand on issues
Differences between candidates on issues
Vote for candidate closest to own preferences
Preferences may not line up with one candidate
Candidates deliberately ambiguous
9.6
2012: A Battle for the
Middle-Class Vote
 Obama’s “titanic struggle” for reelection
 Economy and voting behavior
 Change versus experience
 McCain linked with unpopular Bush in 2008
 Obama linked with economic woes in 2012
9.6
Obama wins reelection
9.6
FIGURE 9.3: Electoral College and exit poll
results for 2012
9.6
% voting for Obama in 2012
9.6
9.6 Why is it difficult for voters to
choose candidates based on issue
preferences?
a. Candidates are deliberately ambiguous
on policy
b. Voters change preferences often
c. Party platforms are not released publicly
d. Issues change from election to election
9.6
9.6 Why is it difficult for voters to
choose candidates based on issue
preferences?
a. Candidates are deliberately ambiguous
on policy
b. Voters change preferences often
c. Party platforms are not released publicly
d. Issues change from election to election
9.6
Last Battle: The Electoral
College
 Unique American institution
 Most people want it abolished
 Archaic and undemocratic
 Founders’ plan and revisions
 President elected by elites
 Electors = number of Congressmen
 48 states are winner-take-all
 Battleground states
9.7
9.7 How many electors does each
9.7
state have?
a. Same as number of senators
b. Same as number of representatives in the
House
c. Same as number of senators plus number
of representatives in the House
d. Same number for each state, regardless
of size
9.7 How many electors does each
9.7
state have?
a. Same as number of senators
b. Same as number of representatives in the
House
c. Same as number of senators plus number
of representatives in the House
d. Same number for each state, regardless
of size
Explore the Electoral College:
Is the Electoral College
Democratic?
9.7
http://media.pearsoncmg.com/long/long_magleby_mpslgbp_25/p
ex/pex8.html
Understanding Campaigns
and Voting Behavior
 Are Nominations and Campaigns Too
Democratic?
 Do Elections Affect Public Policy?
 Do Campaigns Lead to Increases in the
Scope of Government?
9.8
Are Nominations and
Campaigns Too Democratic?
 Outsiders have a way in
 Candidates chosen by voters, not party elites
 The permanent campaign
 Voters overwhelmed
 Lengthy process discourages candidates
 Fundraising is worrisome burden
9.8
Oath of office
9.8
Do Elections Affect Public
Policy?
 Two-way street
 Elections affect public policy to some degree
 Public policy decisions affect electoral outcomes to
some degree
 Depends on policy differences between candidates
9.8
Do Campaigns Lead to
Increases in the Scope of
Government?
9.8
 Local promises add up
 Government as servant rather than master
9.8 How does democracy increase the
9.8
scope of government?
a. Voters have less fear of power in a
government they can change
b. Candidates promise to bring tax money
home in the form of programs and subsidies
c. Both of the above
d. Neither of the above
9.8 How does democracy increase the
9.8
scope of government?
a. Voters have less fear of power in a
government they can change
b. Candidates promise to bring tax money
home in the form of programs and subsidies
c. Both of the above
d. Neither of the above
Explore the Simulation: You
Are a Voter Registration
Volunteer
9.8
http://media.pearsoncmg.com/long/long_longman_media
_1/2013_mpsl_sim/simulation.html?simulaURL=14
Discussion Question
Who votes and who doesn’t in America?
What factors influence whether or not
someone is likely to vote? Why is voter
participation lower in the United States
than in most other democracies?
9
Video: So What?
9
http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MED
IA_1/polisci/presidency/Edwards_Ch09_Campaigns_and_V
oting_Behavior_Seg6_v2.html
Further Review:
On MyPoliSciLab
 Listen to the Chapter
 Study and Review the Flashcards
 Study and Review the Practice Tests
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