Political campaigns
What’s it all about?
What are elections for?
• To determine who will hold governmental
positions
– Not all positions
• To maintain public control over the
government
– Throw the rascals out
• To re-legitimize the system and the regime
– Government claim to consent of the governed
– Elections as rituals
What are campaigns for?
• To inform the public of what the government
has been doing and to critique the
performance of officials
• To stir up excitement for the system, and for
politics in general
• To inform officials of the preferences of the
electorate and to set priorities for action
– Agenda setting
Do elections do what they are
supposed to do?
• Many examples of politicians who have been
found guilty of crimes were returned to office.
• Candidates who are in other ways unfit are
returned to office
– Candidates who are at death’s door, etc.
Do elections do what they are
supposed to?
• Incumbency determines
– Since World War II, 92% of incumbents who ran
for reelection were successful. (Wikipedia)
• However, high-quality challengers are not always
available
• Incumbents with serious problems may not run again
Advantages incumbent
Congresspersons hold
• Experience – an incumbent by definition is experienced. He or
she has already won at least one election.
• Franking – congressional privilege that allows
congresspersons to send out mail to their constituents for
free. It’s in the Constitution.
• Free Media – local media like covering congressman.
Furthermore, they can go on national TV shows, they have an
office in Washington that can create media releases.
• Money – congressmen bring federal spending into their local
areas to benefit the district (which thus increases goodwill in
the district for them).
• Casework – when individual constituents have a problem and
call their congressman. It’s an easy, non-controversial way of
making voters happy. People helped (no matter what party)
will be more likely to vote for him and they will tell their
friends.
• Campaign finance – officeholders have a big advantage over
challengers because they are already in congress with a vote
over legislation and thus interest groups will attempt to
influence them (whatever their party).
– Wikipedia
Election outcomes
• There are at least some scholars that argue
that the outcome of elections does not seem
to reflect public opinion
– Candidates are elected that appear to oppose
majority opinion on a wide range of topics
– Decisions based on emotion and/or peripheral
issues rather than rational self-interest, which is
supposed to rule
Do campaigns do what they are
supposed to do?
• Voters rarely know very much about most of the
candidates on the ballot
– Name recognition may determine winners
• Even when they are acquainted with candidates
voters often do not know much about those
seeking office
– Few can actually identify candidate background, issue
positions, etc.
• False beliefs common
– Assume policy agreement where none exists
Information gain
• A great deal of research indicates that members
of the electorate gain only limited information
about candidates during the campaign
– (Leshner, Benoit and Hansen)
• Much of what the public learns is questionable,
inaccurate or biased
• Focus is often on peripheral cues rather than
issues
– Physical attractiveness, speaking tone, height
Information gain
• Biased reception
– The same information gained about a favored
candidate and a disfavored candidate would be
interpreted differently
Vote intention
• Traditionally, there has been little change in
vote intent during the campaign
– Most people’s votes can be predicted from
demographic information prior to the beginning of
the campaign
Content of campaign communications
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Distortion, untruth
Images and symbolism
Propaganda techniques
Hoopla
How could anyone make an intelligent
decision based on all this junk?
Politics as marketing
• The candidate is the ‘product’
– What are the ‘attributes’ of the candidate?
• A one-day ‘sale’
– Date is predetermined
• The monetary ‘price’ is zero
• Far more competitive/antagonistic environ
than most ‘products’
Marketing strategy and political
campaigns
• Goal is to win
• Use methods developed for marketing
branded products
• Historical transition from product orientation
to sales orientation to marketing orientation
Marketing strategy
• Image/positioning
– Limited by prior performance of candidate
• Market research
– Polling
• Targeting
– “Two campaigns”
– Likely voters
– Persuadable groups
• Communication channels
– Interpersonal
– Mediated
– New media
• Message
– “Product attributes”
– Critique of opposition (far more prevalent in political
campaigns)
• Fundraising
• PR
– ‘Earned media’
– Press relations
• Development of organization
– Pre-existing organization in traditional marketing
campaigns
• GOTV
Image
Targeting
• Primaries v. general election
• Voters v. non-voters
– Talking to those who vote
– Convincing those who are supportive to go to the polls
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Demographics
Persuasibility
Accessibility
Popular vote v. electoral college
– Gore won popular vote
– Plouffe analysis
Communication channels
• Interpersonal
– Face-to-face
• Too time-consuming for major elected office
• Still the main means for local
– Public meetings
– Speeches at gatherings
– Debates
• Media
– TV ads still most significant
• Lion’s share of campaign budgets in higher office
– Radio important for targeting
• Latino
– Newspapers mainly for elite
• New media
– Growing importance
– Innovative area
– Microtargeting
Message
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Issue
“Character”
Positive v. negative tone
Issues of distortion, dishonesty
Fundraising
• Classic model
– PACs
– Large donors, dinners, etc.
– Large portion of candidate’s time personally soliciting donations
• Concern over undue influence
• New model
– Obama
• Vast numbers of small donors/Internet
• Public funding (McCain/Feingold)
– Limits on spending
• Other groups
– 527 groups
PR
• Media relations are tremendously important
– Spin
• Interaction with candidate
• Supporters providing press with background,
etc.
• On-air pundits
• Non-news media
Development of organization
• Obama v. Clinton
– Mass volunteer organizations
– Early preparation
– Online organizing
GOTV
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Phone reminders
Transporting likely supporters to the polls
Registering potential voters
Tracking supporters