The Primary System
Presidential
Party Nomination Systems
“King Caucus”: 1800-1828
Convention System: 1832-1912
Mixed System: 1912-1968
Primary System: 1972-???
McGovern Fraser Commission:
Changes to Democratic Party Rules






Anti-discrimination provisions
Explicit party rules and open party meetings
Bans the UNIT RULE
– Unit rule: the practice of apportioning delegates
in a winner-take-all fashion
Encourages broad and open participation in
delegate selection process
Mandates that minorities’ opinions be fairly
weighted in delegate selection process
Bans the automatic delegate-status of party officials
and elected officeholders
Number of states holding
primary elections
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Democrats
Republicans
Percent of Party
Convention Delegates
Chosen by Primaries
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Democrats
Republicans
Some delegates still
chosen by other means

Caucus:
– A Meeting where any affiliated voter can
come and express their opinions

State convention:
– Local party groups select delegates to
state party convention. State convention
delegates select delegates to national
nominating convention.
Consequences of Party
Reform


Increase in number of primaries
Increase in importance of media
– (And hence the importance of early
primaries!)
Consequences of Party
Reform



Increase in number of primaries
Increase in importance of media
Increase in importance of early
primaries (and momentum and
expectations!)
A representative
beginning?
From the 2000 Census
Population
% White
Median
income
% Farm
employmt
Iowa
New
Hampshire
National
average
2,929,324
(30th)
1,235,786
(41st)
281,421,906
93.9%
96%
75.1%
$39,469
$49,467
$41,994
4.4%
.9%
1.9%
Consequences of Party
Reform




Increase in number of primaries
Increase in importance of media
Increase in importance of early
primaries (and momentum and
expectations!)
Decreases importance of national
party conventions
Consequences of Party
Reform






Increase in number of primaries
Increase in importance of media
Increase in importance of early
primaries
Decreases importance of national
party conventions
Decreases importance of state party
leaders
Party activists give way to candidate
activists
Changes After 1968

McGovern-Fraser reforms

FECA
Federal Election
Campaign Act

Creates a voluntary subsidy for
candidates who enter primary elections
– All funds candidates raise in amounts of $250
or less (if they raise $5000 in 20 different
states) are matched by the federal
government on Jan 1 of election year

Bans large donations by individuals
– Individuals can only give $2000 to a primary
candidate
Consequences of Party
Reform & FECA






Increase in number of primaries
Increase in importance of media
Increase in importance of early primaries
Decreases importance of national party
conventions
Decreases importance of state party leaders
Harder to raise money (takes longer to raise
big money in small contributions!)
A Couple of Problems?

Ideological primary voters?

Candidates mobilize factions?
Presidential
Party Nomination Systems
“King Caucus”: 1800-1828
Convention System: 1832-1912
Mixed System: 1912-1968
Primary System: 1972-1982?
Frontloaded primary system 1982-present
Hunt Commission, 1982

Superdelegates

Frontloading
Date
2008
1996
Jan wk1
Jan wk2
IA, WY
Jan wk3
Jan wk4
MI, NV
SC, FL
AK, HI
Feb wk1
ME, CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA, GA, MN,
MO, TN, CO, AZ, AL, CT, AR, OK,
KS, NM, UT, DE, ID, ND, AL, MT
LA
Feb wk2
LA, NE, WA, ME, DC, MD, VA, HI,
WI
IA
NH,
Feb wk3
NH
Feb wk4
DE, AZ, ND, SD
Mar wk1
OH, RI, TX, VT
CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND,
MA, NY, OH, RI, VT
The Invisible Primary

Role for elites

Role of money

Role of the press

Role for voters

Momentum in Invisible Primary, not
necessarily primaries themselves
Republican nomination
2000

Bush’s money
– April 1999: $6 million
– July 1999: $36 million
– December 1999: $70 million

Closest competitor: McCain
– July 1999: $6 million
– December 1999: $15 million
& Endorsements…

Bush:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Michigan Gov. John Engler (R)
Oklahoma Gov. Frank A. Keating
Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush (R)
Conn. Gov. John G. Rowland (R
Mass. Gov. Argeo Paul Cellucci
Colo. Gov. Bill Owens (R)
Idaho Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R)
Montana Gov. Marc Racicot (R)
R.I. Gov. Lincoln C. Almond
La. Gov. M.J. "Mike" Foster (R)
Pa. Gov. Tom Ridge (R)
Kan. Gov. Bill Graves (R)
Virginia Gov. James S. Gilmore II
N.Y. Gov. George E. Pataki
Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt (R)
Wyo. Gov. Jim Geringer (R)
Wis. Gov. Tommy Thompson
Neb. Gov. Mike Johanns (R)
Nev. Gov. Kenny Guinn (R)
Ohio Gov. Robert A Taft II (R)
Ill. Gov. George H. Ryan (R)
Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R)
Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R)
Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R)
Ariz. Gov. Jane Hull (R)
W.Va. Gov. Cecil H. Underwood
–
N.J. Gov. Christine Todd Whitman

Alexander
– Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R)
– Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R)
– Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R)

Forbes
– NM Governor Gary Johnson

Hatch
– UT Gov. Mike Levitt

Quayle
– Miss. Gov. Fordice