Labor migration, employment,
and demography in Europe:
facts and fears
Marina Bourgain
European University Institute
Main points
• (1) Tensions between MS and Brussels about
direction and prerogatives on both employment and
migration issues.
• (2) Distinction between three different types of
migration, regulated by different rules: community
workers, commuters, 3rd country workers.
• (3) Demographic component.
• In the US about 6.7 million people each year move across state borders in the 1990s
(just above 2.5% of the total population).
• In Europe, Community migrants + Commuters account for less than 1% of the
EU workforce. [Commuters: 83% from FR, DE, BE,IT, 71% commute to SWITZ, DE, LX)
• Important role of the ECJ to promote the “free movement of workers” and further
integration => spill-over effect <=
(Casagrande case C9/74 , …). see the two illustrative cases in
the handouts: compare Rutili v. Ministre de l’intérieur (1975); Edwards v. California (1941).
0.5 m community migrants
0.5 m crossborder commuters
1.7 m third countries workers
Unemployment and foreign workers
Countries with lowest unemployment (<5%)
(June 2005)
Foreign workers as
part of the active
population
Ireland
8%
CEC-workers as
part of the active
population
2%
Austria
11%
1.8%
United Kingdom
6%
0.8%
Denmark
4%
0.4%
Unemployment and foreign workers -Countries
with Average unemployment EU-25: 8.9 %
(June 2005)
Germany
Belgium
France
Sweden
Netherlands
Foreign workers as
part of the active
population
10%
9%
5%
5%
4%
CEC-workers as
part of the active
population
1%
0.4%
0.2%
0.4%
0.2%
Unemployment and foreign workers -Countries
with highest unemployment (June 2005)
Unemployment rate
Foreign workers
CEC-workers
as part of the
as part of the active
active population
population
Greece (10%)
6%
0.8%
Spain (10%)
9%
0.4%
na
na
(down from 23% in 1980s)
Slovakia (16 %)
Poland (18%)
Tensions between MS and Brussels
• A single country may have many incentives to
protect the employment of its nationals and to
regulate its external migration flows…
• BUT from a Union point of view,
it does not matter whether unemployment or guest
workers are located in Poland or in Germany,
respectively 18% and 7% unemployment.
•
Compare with 1941-case « Edwards vs California », in your handouts
Tensions between MS and EU
Brussels is going one direction towards:
• More internal mobility [Integration] (EU-workers and citizens)
• Accelerated waves of enlargement (1973, 1981, 1986, 1993, 2004 2007) [Expansion]
• Active immigration programs and push for EU-prerogatives on
immigration and asylum policies [Integration]
• Employment Commissioner (Vladimir Špidla ) and Justice, Freedom and
Security Commissioner (Franco Frattini), push countries to open their
borders to all three types of migrants:
« Legal migration and integration are inseparable
and should mutually reinforce each other.»
MS want to stay in control.
= 14 million unemployed =
• 12 MS restricted the access from 8 CEEC after
accession in 2004.
• Schengenland (abolition of controls at internal border)
made the entrance of “Outside” workers harder.
• Worries about employment issues, security issues,
identity issues, housing scarcity, illegal immigration
and trafficking, terrorism after 9/11… In other words:
MS care about being re-elected !
• Difficulty to integrate important demographic changes
Change 1: Most EU-Countries now have
a positive Net migration
>Italy<
>Spain<
Change 2: Europe faces population decline
• Europe in 2005 = 4.8 million live births and 4.5 million deaths
• => Natural population change is + 0.3 million people (decrease)
•
[Compared with the entrance of 1.7 million foreigners]
•
•
•
•
Migration compensated population decline in:
Italy: Albanians, Maroccans and Ukrainians
Spain: Maroccans and West Africans
Germany: Turks, ex-Youg., Italians, Greeks and Poles.
• => Still, according to current « natural growth » and current levels
of migration, the active population in Europe (15-64) will start
declining in 2010. By 2030 the loss will reach 20 millions.
>Germany<
>United Kingdom<
>France<
>United States<
110 000
EXPANSION AND MIGRATION ?
To assess the role of migration for work in Europe, we need to understand the
implications of expansion. Migrants from “outside the community” may become
members of the Community, therefore entitled to assert Community rights.
Distribution of foreigners in Germany according to nationality
Total 7.4 million foreigners in Germany (31 Dec. 1997)
Country of the
nationality
Country of the
nationality
Number
registered
2 107 000
Poland
283 000
ExYougoslavia
721 000
Portugal
Spain
132 000
132 000
Italy
608 000
Iran
114 000
Greece
363 000
Turkey
Number
registered
Netherlands
United Kingdom
USA
France
113 000
112 000
110 000
104 000
Distribution of foreigners in Germany according to nationality
Total 7.4 million foreigners in Germany (31 Dec. 1997)
Country of the
nationality
Number registered
Turkey
2 107 000
EU-Nationals
1 750 000
Ex-Yougoslavia
721 000
Iran
USA
114 000
110 000
EXPANSION AND MIGRATION ?
[ CEEC - COMMUNITY WORKERS]
• 1st of May 2006 is an important date as Brussels asked 12 MS to
lift their restrictions on workers coming from eight Central
European countries.
• Following last enlargement in May 2004, these 12 MS have taken
advantage of the right to restrict migrations (of up to 2+5 years) –
same restrictions applied to Greece in 1981. That move caused
surprise and anger in the new MS, denied one of the Union four
fundamental liberties: free movement of people, goods, services and
capital.
• Only Britain, Ireland and Sweden fully opened their doors to
the new MS workers. According to the European Commission the
experience has been broadly positive. BUT…
Irish public opinion
160,000 European Eastern workers
Unemployment -unchanged at 4.3%• A poll suggested that 78% of the voters now favor the reintroduction
of a permit system for these new EU-workers.
• In recent weeks, Irish parties have taken a tough stance on
immigration.
• Ireland had originally stated that these workers would not be entitled to
full workers’ benefits for 2 years. However, the EU-attorney-general
advised the government earlier this month, that it would be illegal under
EU-law to discriminate between Irish and EU workers.
• 2005-Irish ferries dispute: the ferry company wanted to replace its Irish
crews with cheaper non-Irish labor.
2006: Unions-employers talk on a new pay agreement: there is a
concern that foreigners have put down pressure on unskilled wage rates,
reducing the unions’ negotiating clout.
Abolition of internal border controls (Schengen)
= stronger external controls.
• == > No customs or passport checks within the Schengen-land
• The bumpy road to abolish internal border control (1985 – 1995):
•
•
•
1985-five countries negotiated (DE, FR, NL, BE, LX)
In December 1989, Germany signed off the signing ceremonies (study the rights of East Germans …
1990 Schengen-II: common asylum policy : - “first handling principle” that country remains responsible. It then
failed to enter into force as Scheduled in 1993.
Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, joined.
SIS – database, located in Strasbourg and maintained by the countries, contains information on aliens, individuals
wanted for extradition, people considered a threat to public order or national security, missing persons a,d objects
wanted for evidence in criminal procedures.
•
The Amsterdam Treaty (1997-1999) incorporated the Schengen
acquis to take effect in 2004, granting the UK and Ireland to opt-out.
• Historical preferences for specific 3rd countries nationals had
to be removed (France-North Africa) or (Romania-Moldova,
requirement before accession)
Immigration policies: still national paths
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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Italy: launched immigration quotas in 1998, reinforced Bossi-Fini law of 2002.
Quota-system is based on nationality, with preferences when bilateral agreement to fight
illegal immigration are, by region of destination, by types of work (entrepreneurs,
employees, domestic workers).
In 2003, amnesty to 600,000 illegal immigrants who received residence permits.
In 2005, 160, 000 admissions while 14,000 illegal immigrants brought back to their country.
In 2006, 170, 000 admissions are forecasted 1/3 for seasonal work in agriculture.
Spain (unemployment at 10%, lower than in the 1980s 23%) Immigrants now account 8%
of the 44 million population, a higher percentage than in France.
2005 amnesty to 700,000 illegal workers who could present a 6 month-contract in
construction or industry, 3 month-contract in agriculture, or 30h/week in domestic work.
In Oct. 2005, hundreds of desperate west Africans stormed their way into Ceuta and
Mellila (Spanish enclaves in Morocco). A dozen people were killed and hundreds injured
during violent clashes with police.
M. Zapatero asked Brussels 40 million euros to help Morocco control its border and fight
human trafficking. He said Europe would continue to have a security problem on its
borders until it changed its attitude towards Africa.
M. Zapatero’s lenient immigration policy has been criticized at home and within the EU,
Germany said it encouraged more illegal immigrants to enter Spain.
Immigration policies: still national paths (2)
•
UK: New laws on visa based on point-system, on asylum and
nationality in discussion.
•
Germany: 7 millions foreigners, 7% unemployment, restrictive policy
towards immigration.
Year 2000- mitigated results of the Green card system for 20 000 computer
scientists.
2005- the new immigration law limits the entrance to highly qualified
workers: computer scientists, researchers, doctors who have a job offer
receive an unlimited residence permit …
It will be more difficult for foreign seasonal workers to enter, as the
government announced the preference would go to local unemployed.
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•
•
•
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France: Nicolas Sarkozy announced to develop “chosen immigration”
and block less qualified or family reunification.
2005 = 20,000 illegal immigrants brought back to their country.
Conclusion
• (1) Currently, the European Community has no mechanism to cutoff, regulate or efficiently coordinate “outside migration”, or
“naturalization” policies. There are important tensions between
MS and Brussels regarding direction and prerogatives. Progress
to coordinate immigration issues and employment issues have
been largely disappointing.
• (2) Keep in mind the distinction between the three types of
migrant workers, they have different rights.
• (3) Any comparison with the USA is difficult due to the EUdemographic component.
200 million migrant workers in the world today
Questions and Answers (1)
•
Q- Following the riots in France last November, what can you say about the
« marginalization »?
•
A- Marginalization is an dire issue in many EU-countries. NOTE that most the rioters
were second/third generation-migrants, i.e. 14-17 year old French. They spent their
life in France and they cannot accept the kind of job/life their parents had, the
marginalization their parents accepted as migrants. France used to be very proud of its
integration model through schooling and the little open expression of migrant
diversity/religion in public offices, schools etc…. The riots gave a blow to that minimalist
approach, when unemployment is particularly high among young people (20%) and at
least double in city-outskirts. These are the conclusions of an inquiry of the French
Intelligence Service (Renseignements Généraux).
Germany was particularly worried of such an outburst of violence given their important
second or third generation Turks. According to Hans Weiler, the German integration
model may have been more successful (still the respect of migrants traditions has kept
women excluded) and it is possible to become German after living 8 years in Germany.
•
Questions and Answers (2)
•
Q- Do we know haw many illegal migrants live in Europe?
•
A- This is an important question as the establishment of Schengen, made external borders
more difficult to pass but also more attractive. When your (tourist/work) visa expires, the
incentive to stay illegally is stronger because of the difficulty to come in.
•
So far, Member states have refused to disclose (to the public or member states) sensitive
information about illegal aliens. A special clauses for Eurostat does not allow reports on
the number of illegal aliens.
•
Recently, some Eu-countries have launched “amnesty programs” in order to “legalize
and assess” the illegal working population:
– - in 2003, Italy gave a temporary residence permit to 630,000 illegal aliens who
brought a valid work contract
- in 2005, Spain gave a temporary residence permit to 700,000 illegal aliens who
brought a valid work contract (for 6-months in construction, agriculture or services or
30h/week for domestic services). M. Zapatero’s lenient immigration policy has been
criticized at home and within the EU, Germany said it encouraged more illegal
immigrants to enter Spain.
On the contrary, Nicolas Sarkozy, the French Interior Minister said that:
- in 2005 20,000 forced expulsions of illegal aliens occurred
- in 2006, the plan is 25,000 forced expulsions of illegal aliens.
•
Questions and Answers (3)
•
Q- Did the 10 new MS have to transpose minimal European Social regulations, if
there are any?
•
A- First, the 10 new MS had to comply and transpose the “Acquis communautaire” before
they could be accepted into the Community = the Accession process was based on
Accession treaties.
Second, it is possible that some of these countries inherited many stricter regulations from
their communist past. A “most favorable” clause in all EU-social rules makes it
possible to keep stricter laws if they wish.
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•
•
Third, we know that there is a gap between the “transposition of laws” and their actual
implementation or control, the gap is already important in Spain and Greece, in part due
to the lack of an efficient administration (see Linos Working paper n° 107
http://www.ces.fas.harvard.edu/publications/index.html). Also there is no EU-controllers
task force and often too weak trade unions to control enforcement.
“Social regulations in Europe” include:
- principles in the Treaty EU-: Equality between men and women, incl. equality of pay;
freedom of association (etc…) in the Social Charta;
- subsequent legislation (Directives/regulations) after the 1974-social action program:
hundreds of safety rules; compulsory information (2002), Works councils (1994),
redundancies rules (1975), transfers (1977), non-discrimination (2002), maximum
working hours… Currently in the pipeline is a minimal wage-directive.