2015 World Pork Expo
Outlook Seminars
Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D.
Vice-President, Pork Analysis
EMI Analytics, Inc.
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
The gospel according to Yogi . . .
“It’s tough to make predictions,
especially about the future.”
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Key factors for 2015 and beyond
 PEDv – or lack of it in U.S. hog herd
 HPAI in U.S. poultry – HUGE hit on layers/eggs, only meat
impact is turkey, chicken is okay -- so far – but represents the
largest risk
 Beef herd rebuilding is under way – limiting current supplies
 Fewer corn acres, more soybean acres – but the issue is, as
usual, weather
 U.S. consumer demand has been GREAT – will it hold?
 The U.S. dollar
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Corn/Soybean Meal Outlook
Farm
Returns
• Negative returns for corn and soybeans 2015
• Cash Flow Issues
• Cost adjustments likely in 2016
• Rent, Seed, Fertilizer
Ethanol
• Margins Positive Again
• EPA Proposed lowering mandate
• Maybe they will actually follow through this time
Soybeans
• Brazil, Argentina, US all record production
• 2015 record forecast for US
• Expect lower meal prices assuming normal weather
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Adequate Subsoil Moisture for Most of Midwest. Flooding in some areas.
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
US Ethanol Average Profitability Model
CBOT Corn and Ethanol
45
40
May 2015 Forward Forecast
35
30
Cents/Gallon
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
CORN
USDA
EMI
Forecast
Forecast
2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
EMI
Forecast
2011/2012
2012/2013
91.9
84.0
147.2
97.2
87.4
123.4
95.4
87.5
158.1
90.6
83.1
171.0
89.2
81.7
166.8
88.0
80.7
167.4
Beginning Stocks (mill bu.)
Production
Imports
Total Supply
1,128
12,360
29
13,516
989
10,780
162
11,932
821
13,829
36
14,686
1,232
14,216
25
15,472
1,851
13,628
25
15,504
1,851
13,509
25
15,385
Feed and Residual
Food, Seed and Industrial
Ethanol
Total Domestic
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
4,548
6,437
5,011
10,985
1,543
12,527
989
4,335
6,044
4,648
10,379
731
11,111
821
5,036
6,501
5,134
11,537
1,917
13,454
1,232
5,250
6,547
5,200
11,797
1,825
13,622
1,851
5,300
6,560
5,200
11,860
1,900
13,760
1,744
5,300
6,450
5,150
11,750
1,950
13,700
1,685
13.59%
12.67%
12.30%
Planted (million acres)
Harvested
Yield (bu./acre)
STOCKS TO USE
7.89%
7.39%
9.16%
2016/2017
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
World Coarse Grain Ending Stocks
USDA
225
200
2015 Forward Forecast
Million Metric Tons
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
World
2009
2010
China
2011
United
States
2012
Argentina
2013
Brazil
EU 27
2014
2015
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
World Coarse Grain Stocks and CBOT Price
8
CBOT 4th QRT Avg. Price
7
6
R2 = 0.8868
5
4
2015
2014
3
2
R2 = 0.8246
1
0
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
World Coarse Grain Stocks (Excludes China)
1990 - 2005
2006 - 2014
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
CBOT Corn Futures
nearby futures, roll on first of month
8.50
Dollars per Bushel
7.50
6.50
5.50
4.50
3.50
May 2015 forward forecast
2.50
1.50
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
WASDE Forecast continued increase. Will that happen?
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
SOYBEANS
Planted (million acres)
Harvested
Yield (bu./acre)
2011/2012
75.0
73.8
41.9
2012/2013
77.2
76.2
39.8
2013/2014
76.8
76.3
44.0
USDA
Forecast
2014/2015
EMI
Forecast
2015/2016
83.7
83.1
47.8
84.6
83.7
46.0
EMI
Forecast
2016/2017
82.0
81.0
46.2
Beginning Stocks (mill bu.)
Production
Imports
Total Supply
215
3,094
16
3,325
169
3,034
36
3,239
141
3,358
72
3,570
92
3,969
30
4,091
350
3,850
30
4,230
500
3,743
17
4,260
Crushings
Exports
Seed
Residual
Total Use
Ending Stocks
1,703
1,360
90
2
3,155
169
1,689
1,320
89
1
3,098
141
1,734
1,647
98
3,478
92
1,805
1,800
98
38
3,741
350
1,825
1,775
92
38
3,730
500
1,825
1,800
90
74
3,789
471
STOCKS TO USE
5.35%
4.54%
2.65%
9.35%
13.40%
12.44%
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
CBOT Soybean Meal Futures
nearby futures, roll on first of month
570
520
470
Dollars per Ton
420
370
320
270
220
May 2015 forward forecast
170
120
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Domestic demand is strong – export
demand has been difficult.
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
2014 4-species RPCE: Yr/yr higher since January
HUGE positive months in Aug - Dec
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Domestic demand remains strong thru March
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
It appears that preferences have shifted
Will this shift hold?
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Animal protein demand has been growing since ‘10
January’s $67.38 the highest since September ‘90
‘14 4-species RPCE
+5% vs. ‘13, +9% vs. ‘12
Drivers:


o
o
o
o

Growing concern about
carbs – LeBron?
Fading fat phobia
New appreciation for “good”
from fats – Big Fat Surprise
Better view of medical and
dietician communities
Can this be sustained?
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Major trend changes for pork
November’s $18.91 the highest since December ‘90

Pork RPCE is now well ahead of 2004 levels which were driven by
Atkins diet
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Same trend for beef and chicken
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
’14 per capita consumption was 201 lbs
Forecast to increase to 210 in ‘15 & ‘16
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
The evidence of strong demand is prices
Beef record in March & April; Pork higher, yr/yr thru March
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
GDP: Yr/yr growth revised to 2.4% in Q4, 2.7% in Q1
Trade was a major drag, consumer spending growing -- some
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
RPDI growth was MUCH better in ‘14
Up 1.7% for the year; Feb was revised down but YTD ’15 is +3%
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Consumer attitudes have improved – Topping?
Both indexes are still near their highest levels since 2007
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Restaurant Performance Index – highest since ‘04
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
And now – “cheap” oil and sub-$2 gas?
Weekly
crude oil
futures
Monthly
RBOB
gasoline
futures
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Current price ratios are WAY out of whack!
…especially at the wholesale level – but they are correcting!


Pork seasonal strength is closing wholesale gap
Retail price data is very “laggy” and won’t reflect featuring – volumes??
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
The biggest demand challenge is EXPORTS
Beef has struggled in ‘14; pork struggles began in July ‘14
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Big issue #1: The low-hanging fruit has
been picked!
Flood of trade agreements in ‘90s – CFTA, NAFTA, Uruguay
Good number of unilateral agreements in ‘00s – CA/DR,
Chile, Colombia, Australia – but running out of new partners
 Potential game changer: Trans-Pacific Partnership
o Big impact will be Japan – remove gate price mechanism
o REQUIRES Trade Promotion Authority
 TTIP (EU) – still in doubt – and I seriously doubt that it will do
us any good as EU are PROFESSIONAL PROTECTIONISTS


Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Big issue #2: West Coast port slowdown
 Began last July and got “serious” in December-January
 Tentative agreement and back to work on February 22
 New contract ratified May 22
 Backlog has been partially cleared many do not expect
activity to be normal until late June
 Two issues remain: Flood of product is now at importing
countries’ ports, restoring broken relationships
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Big issue #3: The U.S. dollar
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Oil and $U.S. are negatively correlated
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Total frozen meat/poultry 20.1% on April 30
Feb-Mar surge due to ports; April due to pork, HPAI
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
On April 30: Pork +20%, Beef +19%, Chicken +32%
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Avian Influenza
 Situation through May 16
o 5.742 mil. turkeys lost– 2.4% of 2014 slaughter = 235 mil.
o Layers – 27.693 mil. total, mostly in IA, MN & WI
o Broilers – One flock in CA, one “broiler” breeder flock in
IA???
 The Southeast is critical
o Arkansas: #3 for broiler and turkey production
o Eastern TX and OK are not far away!
 VERY little actual impact on beef or pork
 What about this fall?
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Locations and types of farms
Source: Steiner Consulting Group
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Location of turkeys – USDA NASS


Losses are
subsiding
‘14 Slaughter
o MN: 19%
o AR: 13%
o NC: 12%
o IN:
8%
o MO: 7%
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Location of broilers – USDA NASS


‘14 production
o GA: 15%
o AL: 12%
o AR: 11%
o NC: 9%
o MS: 9%
BIG FEAR: Fall
migration thru
AR, TX, OK
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Location of layers – USDA NASS


Losses are
subsiding
‘14 production
o IA: 16%
o OH: 9%
o IN:
8%
o PA:
8%
o TX:
5%
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Chicken inventories are burdensome!
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Broiler flock: Growth rate is increasing
Yr/yr growth 1.5 to 2.5% July-March; 3% & 3.5% April & May
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Egg sets, placements are growing steadily
And productivity is finally
moving back to
long-term norm
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Chicken output is sharply higher YTD
On modest slaughter growth and HUGE birds!
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Prices: Above 5-yr avg except for leg quarters
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Expectations for chicken
 GROWTH – 3 to 4% and that may well be LOW!
o Companies are solving problems, big profit incentive
o BIG increase in bird weights will drive production
 Chicken prices
o
o
o
o
2.5-4.0# WOGs -- $101 to $104 rest of ’15 and 1st half of ‘16
Med. B/S Breast -- $162-$165 thru Aug, $155 Sept, $130-$130
rest of ’15, stronger 1st half of 2016
Whole wings -- $128 to $140 rest of ‘15, sharply lower in ‘16 (as
much as 15% lower in Q2)
Leg quarters -- $31 to $34 rest of ’15, $45-$50 1st half of ‘16
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Turkey supplies hit hard by HPAI
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Q4 turkey output still up 4% from ‘14
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Turkey prices mixed due to HPAI & exports
 16-24 Toms and 8-15 Hens both $113 $120 rest of 2015 – some topside risk
 4-8 frozen breasts -- $128 - $130
 Frozen thigh meat -- $130 - $142 (far
below last year’s $175
 MD turkey (frozen) -- $26 to $30
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
The key for beef growth is WEATHER!
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Beef: Unprecedented cow/calf profits!
But will ‘15 be this good? Feeders are down $30+
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
But short term – Feeder cattle supplies are still tight
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Fed cattle supplies still VERY tight
USDA Cattle on Feed Report -- May 2015
Thous. Hd.
2014
On-Feed May 1
10554
Placed in April
1623
Marketed in April
1778
Source: USDA NASS, *Urner Barry
2015
10,640
1,548
1,639
survey,
2015 as pct. of 2014
EstiDifferActual
mate*
ence
100.8
101.7
-0.9
95.4
102.4
-7.0
92.2
92.4
-0.2
average responses
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Cattle slaughter was down 10-12% in March-April
Has increased some in May – but weights have filled the gap
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
U.S. beef imports: Up 31% in ‘14, 47% YTD
Big gain WAS Australia @ +73%, +96%; NZ is +28 in ‘15
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Beef consumption/supply -3.7% in ‘14
Down another 0.5% this year and another 1.7% in 2016!
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Cutouts and cattle prices will stay near records



We expect a normal seasonal decline this summer on higher slaughter
Short April placements are bullish for fall prices
Choice cutout $240-$250 range this summer, challenging record highs
this fall
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Cattle continue to get better!
 But Choice-grade premium is still “normal”
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
“The Story” on beef is RECORD middle meats!
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Cattle and beef summary . . .
 Growth – but characteristically slow
o Biology, producer age, capital cost are all limiting factors
o Growth means tighter near term supply
 HIGH prices through 2015 and 2016 will provide opportunities for competitors
 Winter futures selloff was technicals – not supported by
product or cattle
 Question: Long-term impacts of VERY HIGH prices on
beef consumers?
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Exports have been soft – prices, $, ports, etc.
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Big factor has been EU pork displaced from Russia
40,000 tonnes of pork had to find a home!
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Key Markets: Mexico a clear #1, Japan #1 for value

2014 was a TOUGH year
o Russia: +495% (but only 37%
as large as in ‘13)
o Ch/HK: -30%
o Japan: -8%
o Canada: -6%
 2015 has been mixed
o
o
o
o
Ch/HK: -72%, Japan -20%
Mexico is UP 12%
Korea is UP 43%
Canada is UP 2%
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Hog costs are MUCH improved, price rally = PROFITS!
Normal weather: Even lower (upper $60s) in ‘16
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Where are the hogs coming from
and how long will they be coming?
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Good news-or bad: PEDv losses much smaller


New high wk. of 3/15 at 161 vs. 291 last year
Many are “monitoring” and at G/F sites – NOT MUCH DEATH LOSS
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Key development: Few sow herd breaks



Data from 746 sow farm, 18 of 19 large systems reporting, 2.1 million sows!
Worst weeks in ‘15: 9 sow herds broke in two week in late February
Anecdotal: MUCH smaller piglet losses even on farms that broke this year!
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
PRRS was much quieter in ‘13-’14 – and now

U.M.’s PRRS sample does not cover N.C. where 174 strain is causing
significant losses in February-April
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Hogs & Pigs report: Big market hog supply
But growth is slowing – bullish for defered contracts
USDA QUARTERLY HOGS & PIGS REPORT
March 27, 2015
Category
Inventories on March 1
All hogs and pigs
Kept for breeding
Kept for marketing
Under 50 lbs.
50-119 lbs.
120-179 lbs.
180 lbs. and over
Farrowings
Dec-Feb sows farrowed
Mar-May Intentions
June-Aug Intentions
Dec-Feb Pig Crop
Dec-Feb pigs saved per litter
2014
61494
5851
55643
17336
15487
12538
10281
2,763
2,810
2,991
26,326
9.53
*Thousand head ** Thousand Litters
'15 as
Pct of
'14
PreReport
Est's1
Actual
minus
Est.
65934
5982
59953
18959
16509
13290
11195
107.2
102.2
107.7
109.4
106.6
106.0
108.9
106.8
103.5
107.2
108.6
106.8
106.1
107.0
0.4
-1.3
0.5
0.8
-0.2
-0.1
1.9
2829
2870
2927
28758
10.17
102.4
102.1
97.9
109.2
106.7
103.7
103.1
102.7
109.2
105.3
-1.3
-1.0
-4.8
0.0
1.4
2015
1
Source: Urner Barry
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Productivity measures are critical for ‘15!
 Implied farrowing rates
- Mar-May rate is equal to past two
years – Low?
- Jun-Aug intentions down 2.1% yr/yr
is a reflection of last year’s surge –
re-breeds of lost litters
- June-Aug rate is reasonable
 Other farrowing rate issues:
- Problems in post-PEDv herds?
- Sow herd ages (parity structure)
were/are out of whack due to
slow sow turnover in 2014
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Will these changes happen?
 Yr/yr litter growth will slow
sharply
o Dec-Feb was +6.7% – exactly
what we said in Dec if PEDv
losses were zero
o Mar-May is +5.7% due to last year
o But Jun-Aug will be only about
+2% yr/yr
 Back on the 2%/yr growth
trend – with a lost year
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
December slaughter forecasts
Too low thru Mar. but then similar to ‘13 the rest of 2015
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
March H&P: BIG NUMBERS summer and fall
But Jun-Aug crop EQUAL to this year – and Dec-Feb slaughter
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Weights are now yr/yr lower
will REDUCE ‘15 prod by 1.5 to 2%, maybe more



Weight reduction vs. year ago was a big reason for higher-than-expected
slaughter in Q1-- ~2/3 of the total Q1 change
Weights have been stable for 8 weeks after rapid decline but will fall further
– seasonal pattern
Normal seasonal: 208 in July – down 3% yr/yr
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
2014 production ended down only 1.4%
…but is up 6.8% YTD, 8.2% last week
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Slaughter forecasts from March H&P
March 2015 Hogs & Pigs -- Commercial Slaughter Forecasts
Mizzou
Mil. Hd
2013 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Year
2014 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Year*
2015 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Year
2016 Q1
% Chnge
ISU
Mil. Hd
LMIC
% Chnge
Mil. Hd
% Chnge
Paragon
Mil. Hd
ACTUAL
% Chnge
Mil. Hd
% Chnge
27.870
-0.8%
26.778
27.668
29.808
0.4%
-1.1%
0.8%
112.124
-1.0%
27.580
-1.0%
27.428
-1.6%
27.214
-2.4%
27.320
-2.0%
27.134
-2.6%
25.420
26.459
-5.1%
-4.4%
25.787
26.340
-3.7%
-4.8%
25.572
26.173
-4.5%
-5.4%
25.020
25.520
-6.6%
-7.8%
25.574
25.554
-4.5%
-7.6%
28.930
107.192
-2.9%
-4.4%
28.795
107.057
-3.4%
-4.5%
28.826
107.088
-3.3%
-4.5%
28.912
107.174
-3.0%
-4.4%
28.617
106.879
-4.0%
-4.7%
28.721
27.238
5.8%
6.5%
28.670
27.185
5.7%
7.0%
28.670
27.236
5.7%
6.5%
28.670
5.7%
6.3%
28.690
27.358
27.898
29.800
113.657
9.2%
4.1%
6.3%
27.854
30.448
114.158
9.0%
6.4%
6.8%
27.738
30.585
114.371
8.5%
6.9%
7.0%
27.905
29.762
113.573
9.2%
4.0%
6.3%
28.928
0.9%
29.645
3.4%
29.845
4.1%
Red figures are analysts' last FORECAST for the given quarter (Q1 done in Dec, Q2 done in Mar, etc.)
Blue figures are estimated using USDA data
*Annual total uses actuals to-date plus forecasts for the rest of the year.
3/30/15
Q1-Q3 revised higher, Q4 revised lower
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Price forecasts – I’m the bull of the group!
March 2015 Hogs & Pigs -- Price Forecasts
2013 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Year
2014 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Year
2015 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Year
2016 Q1
Mizzou
Producer-Sold
Net Price, All
Methods
83.53
91.80
97.90
84.99
89.56
93.10
113.54
111.84
91.83
102.23
66.50
70 - 74
70 - 74
64 - 68
68 - 72
Blue figures are estimated using USDA data
ISU
Ia-Mn
Producer-Sold
Neg'd Base
80.63
89.30
95.58
81.28
86.70
93.10
115.36
111.77
90.49
101.68
64.10
68 - 73
69 - 74
61 - 66
66 - 69
64 - 69
LMIC
National Wtd
Avg. Base Price
81.08
89.32
95.25
82.98
87.16
91.34
111.61
109.63
90.08
100.31
68.95
70 - 74
70 - 75
60 - 66
67 - 71
62 - 69
Paragon
National Net
Neg'd Price,
Wtd. Avg.
82.73
90.83
98.00
85.26
89.21
93.80
116.83
114.25
91.41
102.95
70.82
74 - 78
78 - 82
70 - 74
73 - 76
70 - 74
CME
CME Lean Hog
Futures/Index
83.34
90.66
98.98
83.93
89.23
94.91
117.48
115.70
91.85
104.99
68.59
75.93
81.17
70.93
74.15
71.33
6/1/15
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Packers aren’t enjoying this much either


Big factor is drop value – down by over 40% since end of July
Lower drop value has hurt hog bids – they are part of the cutout-to-live
computation by packers
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Pork stocks are a problem – ports, output
3/31 picnics (+23), butts (+28), trim (+52),
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
2015 price forecasts: 3-10% below 2013
…and very near the 5-year averages


Same is true for cutout value – normal summer rally from here would put
it near $100
Cutout has pulled hogs higher – likely will eclipse $90
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
“Retail” cut are at or above 5-year averages
…and even better in the
case of ribs which did not
rise on PEDv scare last
year -- BIG stocks!
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
“Processing” cuts have improved, but still lag retail cuts
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Key pork cuts
Item
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Hogs, Prod-sold, Net
84
84
83
78
74
72
USDA Cutout
90
92
94
88
85
82
1/4" Trim Loins
126
127
130
122
118
110
1/4" Trim Butts
135
130
124
119
112
111
20-23 Hams
72
78
80
84
84
82
13-17 Derind Belly
123
130
134
120
112
104
42CL Trim
40
42
45
40
33
31
72CL Trim
75
80
76
68
66
60
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Risks – and some are reality





MCOOL retaliatory tariffs
Major export disruption – with a capital D!
Weather – always a concern in spring
PEDv impact this coming winter – immunity levels???
Demand weakening
o Domestic: Newly positive preferences continue?
o Exports: World economy, strong $U.S.
 How much expansion in pigs and chicken?
 Hogs: Packing capacity – New plant in ’17
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
Questions and
Discussion?
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge