Presidentialism and Democracy
in Latin America
Maxwell A. Cameron
Political Science 332
3/23/2016
The Fujimori Autogolpe
• Fujimori elected in a runoff in 1990
• Minority president, facing major problems
• Closes congress, suspends constitution, rules
by decree
• Justification: congressional
obstruction, corruption
• Result: re-election under a
new constitution in 1995
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Presidential Systems Less Stable
• A major finding of recent comparative
research is that presidential systems are less
stable than parliamentary ones.
• We do not, however, have an entirely
convincing explanation why.
• Does presidentialism cause instability, or
are presidential systems merely adopted by
unstable countries (eg. Latin America)?
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Presidentialism Defined
• Presidentialism: a political system based on
• (a) the separate election of the executive and
• (b) the legislature for fixed terms.
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Parliamentarism defined
• Parliamentarism: A political system in
which
• (a) the legislative majority chooses the
executive and which, in turn, must have the
confidence of the legislature; and
• (b) terms are not fixed, and the executive
can typically dissolve the legislature and
call elections.
Problems of Presidentialism I
1 Presidents rarely have a majority in congress, and
hence need to form coalitions to govern. Since
members of congress have little incentive to
cooperate, executive-legislative tensions can lead
to “deadlock.”
2 Lame duck presidents can result—presidents who
serve out their terms without fulfilling their
mandates.
3 Alternatively, weak presidents are occasionally
removed before the end of term.
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Problems of Presidentialism II
• Winner captures entire executive branch
and administration. Losers get nothing, can
become disloyal
• Concentration of power in hands of
president. Does not need to share power in
cabinet
• Zero-sum game
Problems of Presidentialism III
• Fixed length of term creates “rigidly
demarcated periods”
• No constitutional means of removing
executive
An additional issue
Some presidential systems impose term
limits and successful presidents often
chafe at these constraints.
Result: breakdown of democratic
regimes
In Defence of Presidentialism
• Coalitions are possible.
• Deadlock is relatively rare, not always related to
breakdown.
• Not all presidents become lame ducks.
• Impeachment provides a constitutional
mechanism for removing the executive.
• Term limits may be a major source of instability,
but they are not an intrinsic feature of
presidentialism. Term lengths can be reduced.
• Separation of powers and checks and balances
protect
liberty
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Alternative Explanations
• Perhaps presidentialism is not to blame for instability?
• Latin American countries may be more unstable than most,
and happen to be presidential. Hence the causal link is
spurious (can be explained by some other factor).
• Possible alternative explanations:
–
–
–
–
–
Multipartism (Downsian logic)
Weakness of parties
Ethnic conflict
Ideology
Rule of law
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Rule of Law
• Coalitions can be made by illicit means: pork
barrel politics or corruption
• Legislative opposition can be bypassed through
abuse of decree authority
• Impeachment can be abused
• Lame ducks are often a lightening rod for
opposition, which may use unconstitutional means
(eg. civil society coups).
• Proscription on re-election a key source of
conflict, related to need to restrain powers of the
presidency (prevent maximatos)
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RATES OF POLITICAL STABILITY IN PARLIAMENTARY AND
PRESIDENTIAL DEMOCRACIES, DIVIDED BY RULE OF LAW
Type of Constitution during Democracy
Parliamentary
Presidential
Number of democracies
54
59
Number of democracies
with above average
levels of political stability
44
18
81%
31%
Rates of political stability
Rule of Law
High
(N=40)
38
Political stability 95%
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Low
(N=14)
6
High
(N=17)
14
Low
(N=42)
4
43%
82%
10%
Paradoxes of Presidentialism
• Despite its problems, presidentialism remains
the most popular system in Latin America
– Direct election is popular (eg. Brazil, “directas-ya”)
• Presidentialism chosen in order to create
effective leaders, but it creates weaker
(delegative) systems: “The stronger the
president, the weaker the presidential system”
(Valenzuela)
• Example of Allende’s Chile
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An Aside: Semi-presidentialism
• Semi-presidentialism combines direct
election with cabinet government
• President elected by voters
• Cabinet leader chosen by legislature
• Power shared
Does Presidentialism uphold the
Separation of Powers better than
Parliamentarism?
• Parliamentary supremacy - the idea that the
abuses of power is prevented by
encompassing the executive within the rulemaking body
• Checks and balances - the notion of
ambition pitted against ambition serves to
arrest abuses of power