Chapter 9
Nominations
and
Campaigns
Edwards, Wattenberg, and Lineberry
Government in America: People, Politics, and Policy
Fourteenth Edition
Modern Campaigns
Nomination
The official endorsement of a
candidate for office by a political
party
Generally, success requires Momentum, Money, and Media attention.
Nature of Modern Campaigns
 TWO STEP PROCESS.
 Nomination campaign aimed at winning party support
 General election campaign aimed at winning office.
CAMPAIGNS ARE NOW
“PERSONALITY BASED”
POLITICAL PARTIES HAVE
LESS CONTROL OF CANDIDATE
LOWER VOTER TURNOUTS
FOCUS ON “LIKELY VOTERS”
MAG CH 9 SUM
CURRENT NOMINATION METHODS
DIRECT PRIMARY
CLOSED, OPEN, BLANKET
PETITION
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
NATIONAL CONVENTION
DELEGATES ELECT
MAG CH 9 SUM
(AUSTRALIAN BALLOT)
PUBLIC EXPENSE
LIST ALL CANDIDATES
GIVEN ONLY ONE @ POLLS
SECRET VOTE
• PRESIDENTIAL
• NOMINATION
•&
• CAMPAIGN
• PROCESS
Deciding to Run
Organizing a campaign
Get a campaign manager
Get a fund-raiser acampaign
Hire media consultants
Assemble staff and plan logistics
Research /policy advisors, pollsters
Get a good press secretary
Campaign
Organization
Back
Finding the Time
American campaigns are long
Winning delegates
State primaries & caucuses
“Frontloading”
Iowa & New Hampshire
2012 Republican Candidates
•Filed with the FEC, But on no primary ballots
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sarah Gonzalez (AZ)
Paul Sims (AZ)
Al Perry (AZ)
Cesar Cisneros (AZ)
Kevin Rubash (NH)
Donald Benjamin (AZ)
Michael Levinson (AZ)
Kip Dean (AZ)
Ronald Zack (AZ)
Jeff Lawman (NH)
Frank Lynch (AZ)
Wayne Arnett (AZ)
Raymond Perkins (AZ)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Matt Welch (AZ)
Benjamin Linn (NH)
Jim Terr (AZ)
Charles Skelley (AZ)
Simon Bollander (AZ)
Joe Story (NH)
Bear Betzler (NH)
Joe Robinson (NH)
Linden Swift (NH)
Timothy Brewer (NH)
Vern Wuensche (NH)
Hugh Cort (NH)
James Vestermark (NH)
2012 Republican Candidates
•Filed with the FEC, But on 1 or 2 primary ballots
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
John L. Davis (NH, TX)
Michael J. Meehan (NH, MO)
Mark Callahan (NH, AZ)
Christopher Hill (NH, AZ)
Randy Crow (NH, LA)
Keith Drummond (NH, MO)
Andy Martin (NH)
Stewart Greenleaf (NH)
2012 Republican Candidates
•Many Primary Ballots, but dropped out
•
•
•
•
TIM PAWLENTY – AUG 14, 2011
THADDEUS MCCOTTER – SEP 22, 2011
HERMAIN CAIN – DEC 3, 2011
GARY JOHNSON - DEC 28, 2011
(Ran as Libertarian Party candidate)
•
•
•
•
MICHELE BACHMAN - JAN 4, 2012
RICK PERRY – JAN 19, 2012
BUDDY ROEMER – FEB 22, 2012
RICK SANTORUM – APRIL 10-11, 2012
(Suspended, then withdrew, released delegates May 7, 2012)
2012 Republican Candidates
•Many Primary Ballots, Never dropped out
• RON PAUL
• MITT ROMNEY
(Won Nomination)
The National Convention votes for the party’s
presidential candidate
Now are a formality, Less TV time.
Key note speaker on the 1st day
Party platform on the 2nd day
Formal nomination of president and v-p
candidates on 3rd & 4th days
IS THE
CURRENT
NOMINATION
PROCESS THE
BEST WAY TO
SELECT A
PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATE?
5 MINUTES / 50 WORDS
CH 9 SUM
MONEY
“THE MOTHER’S MILK OF POLITICS”
INDIVIDUAL DONATIONS
POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES
(PACs)
Money and Campaigning
Federal Election Campaign Act (1974)
Created the Federal Election Commission (FEC)
Created the Presidential Election Campaign Fund
Partial public financing for presidential primaries
Required full disclosure and limited contributions
The Proliferation of PACs
Political Action Committees (PACs)
Groups that donate money to campaigns.
Are registered with and monitored by the FEC.
PACs contributed over $372.1 million to
congressional candidates in 2006.
PACs donate to candidates who support their issue.
PACs do not “buy” candidates, but give to
candidates who support them in the first place.
Expenditures by PACs
Back
The McCain-Feingold Act (2002)
Banned “soft” money,
Increased amount of individual contributions
Created 527 groups
527 Groups
(SuperPACS)
“Independent” groups that seek to
influence political process that can
spend unlimited money for a
candidate or an issue.
(SuperPACS)
Were creatd by the
Citizens United
SCOTUS ruling
(201o)
Citizens United v F.E.C (2010)
• 5-4 ruling (conservatives over liberals)
• Freedom of Speech Protected
• Money = speech
• Buckley v. Valeo (1976)
• Unlimited donations allowed
• From independent (non-partisan)
sources
• Limited timely public disclosure
2012 “SuperPAC” top donations
The Impact of Campaigns
Campaigns have three effects on voters
Reinforcement
Activation
Conversion
The Impact of Campaigns
Campaigns are limited because…
Selective viewing / perception
Party identification
Incumbents
CRITICAL OR REALIGNING PERIODS
A LASTING SHIFT IN POPULAR COALITIONS
1800 - JEFFERSON’S D-R=FEDERALISTS FOLDED
1828 - JACKSONIAN DEMOCRATS IN POWER
1860 - LINCOLN REPS. REPLACE THE WHIGS
1896 - W.J. BRYANT DEMOCRATIC POPULISM
1932 - FDR NEW DEAL COALITION
1980 - THE REAGAN REVOLUTION ?
CAN REALIGNMENT OCCUR WITH...
WEAKER POLITICAL PARTIES?
PERSONALITY ELECTIONS?
MORE SPLIT TICKET VOTING?
NO CRITICAL NATIONWIDE ISSUES?
• Campaigns Lead to an Increased
Scope of Government
• Candidates make numerous
promises, especially to state
and local interests.
Summary
• Campaigns are media-oriented and
time consuming.
• Delegates are selected through caucuses
and primaries.
• Money is essential to campaigns.
EXTRAS
DECISIONS TO BE MADE
EXTREME IDEOLOGICAL
VIEWS FOR PRIMARY VOTES?
OR MODERATE VIEWS
FOR GENERAL ELECTION VOTES?
NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN OR POSITIVE CAMPAIGN
INSIDER OR OUTSIDER PERSONALITY
WHAT GROUPS TO APPEAL TO
WHAT APPEARANCES TO MAKE & WHERE
TELEVISION IS VERY IMPORTANT
PAID “SPOTS”, ADS
NEWS “VISUALS”
DEBATES
CONVENTIONS
ARE LESS IMPORTANT
“RED MEAT” FOR BASE
OUTREACH FOR MODERATES
POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS COST $$$$
WHOEVER SPENDS THE MOST,
USUALLY (74%) WINS
LARGE “MONEY ADVANTAGE” HELPS
CHALLENGERS MORE THAN INCUMBENTS
WHERE DOES CAMPAIGN MONEY COME FROM?
1-CANDIDATES THEMSELVES
2-THE WEALTHY
$2,000 MAX PER CANDIDATE
3-ORGANIZATIONS, INTEREST GROUPS & P.A.C.s
$5,000 MAX PER CANDIDATE (???)
4-SMALL INDIVIDUAL DONORS
MOST MONEY COMES FROM HERE
5-THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES/ELECTIONS ONLY
2008 Election Analysis
 Obama made gains in South and West.
 Voter turnout was as high as it had been since 1964.
 Obama’s choice not to use public financing helped him.
 African Americans and women were keys for Obama.
2008 Contribution Limits
An individual can give up to:
$2,000 per election to any candidate or
candidate committee
$25,000 per calendar year to a national party
committee
$10,000 per calendar year to each state or
local party committee
$5,000 per calendar year to a Political Action
Committee (PAC)
$95,000 per two-year election cycle to
candidates, national party committees
and PACs
1972 CAMPAIGN REFORM HELPED…
WEALTHY CANDIDATES
THOSE WHO APPEAL TO MANY PEOPLE
INCUMBENTS
EARLY CAMPAIGNERS
CELEBRITIES
POLITIC ACTION COMMITTEES
2000 ELECTION REFORMS
LIMIT “SOFT MONEY”
527 GROUPS CREATED
“swift boat” groups
GERRYMANDERING
• THE INTENTIONAL
REALIGNMENT OF
DISTRICTS TO
FAVOR ONE
POLITICAL PARTY
GERRYMANDERING (legal)
MINORITY-MAJORITY DISTRICTS
(unconstitutional)
2009 ELECTION CYCLE
KEY STATE RESULTS
• NEW REPUBLICAN GOVERNORS
• VIRGINIA & NEW JERSEY
• AFFLUENT SUBURBANITES – BIG REP GAINS
• DEMOCRATIC FED.HOUSE SEAT
• NE NEW YORK (NY-23)
• REPUBLICAN SPLIT (MOD. VS CONS.)
• MAINE VOTES NO ON GAY MARRIAGE
• REFERENDUM AGAINST LAW PASSED
• OHIO VOTES YES TO CASINOS
ELECTIONS & CAMPAIGNS
OBJECTIVES
1-DEMONSTRATE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PARTYORIENTED CAMPAIGNS OF THE NINETEENTH CENTURY AND
THE CANDIDATE-ORIENTED CAMPAIGNS OF TODAY.
2-EXPLAIN THE MAJOR ELEMENTS OF A SUCCESSFUL
CAMPAIGN FOR OFFICE TODAY.
ELECTIONS & CAMPAIGNS
OBJECTIVES
3-DISCUSS HOW IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN FUNDING IS TO
ELECTION OUTCOMES.
4-DEFINE THE TERM REALIGNING ELECTION AND DISCUSS THE
MAJOR EXAMPLES OF SUCH ELECTIONS IN THE PAST. ALSO
ADDRESS THE CONCERN OVER WHETHER REALIGNMENT IS
AGAIN UNDERWAY.
ELECTIONS & CAMPAIGNS
OBJECTIVES
5-DESCRIBE WHAT THE DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS EACH
MUST DO TO PUT TOGETHER A SUCCESSFUL NATIONAL
COALITION TO WIN ELECTIONS.
6-DO ELECTIONS RESULT IN MAJOR CHANGES IN PUBLIC POLICY
IN THE UNITED STATES?
ELECTIONS & CAMPAIGNS
IMPORTANT TERMS
BLANKET PRIMARY
CLOSED PRIMARY
COATTAILS (POLITICAL)
CRITICAL (REALIGNING) PERIODS
DIRECT MAIL
GENERAL ELECTION
INCUMBENT
INDEPENDENT
OFFICE-BLOC BALLOT
OPEN PRIMARY
PARTY-COLUMN BALLOT
ELECTIONS & CAMPAIGNS
IMPORTANT TERMS
POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (PAC)
POSITION ISSUE
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
PRIMARY ELECTION
PROSPECTING VOTING
RETROSPECTIVE VOTING
RUNOFF PRIMARY
SPLIT-TICKET VOTING
STRAIGHT-TICKET VOTING
VALENCE ISSUE
VISUAL